| Panic over... 09:46 - Mar 7 with 5967 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
....only one new case in China outside the quarantined zones!
....so much about this whole thing fails the sniff test! |  |
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| Panic over... on 11:48 - Mar 7 with 1621 views | Oxford_Blue |
| Panic over... on 11:27 - Mar 7 by StokieBlue |
The flu comparison is false, as has been shown in many articles but it keeps getting pushed.
This has a higher mortality rate and a higher r0. The whole point is to stop it infecting as many people as flu because if it does then far more people will die than from flu.
Pushing this point all the time is unhelpful and misleading.
SB |
Exactly. The death rate is about 3%. Even if you reduce that to 1%, and even if only 50% of the population of the UK get this virus, that’s about 300,000 to 400,000 dead. This is hugely more than seasonal flu deaths and it will hit certain groups particularly hard. This also spreads far more easily than flu. The impact of such a large number of people needing care, being unable to work or look after children is going to create real issues. |  | | |
| Panic over... on 11:49 - Mar 7 with 1621 views | sparks |
| Panic over... on 11:47 - Mar 7 by BanksterDebtSlave |
It's lucky you and the other 4 aren't scientists allowing your preconceived notions affect your observations. |
What are you on about? You threw out the same old silly innuendo, suggesting some conspiracy that you understood and others didnt. Its taken a page for you to clarify.
Your clarification eventually leads to a very simple and obvious point that no one disagrees with. You may wish to consider the possibility that your initial post was ambiguous.
Though you already know that- and I strongly suspect you meant something more than you are now admitting under challenge. |  |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| Panic over... on 11:51 - Mar 7 with 1616 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Panic over... on 11:32 - Mar 7 by Guthrum |
Are you thinking they are over- or under-reporting? If the latter, then that is possibly understandable, tho they got into hot water over doing that with SARS and the regime is keen not to provoke unrest by lying too obviously. If the former, that would merely do even more damage to their economy, which is suffering more than most from this outbreak. |
Under....I think they want their economy back on the rails. | |
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| Panic over... on 11:54 - Mar 7 with 1608 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Panic over... on 11:38 - Mar 7 by sparks |
None of us trust the state media in China.
If that is the limit of your point, then why not just say "But of course we cant trust the chinese state media" rather than cryptic innuendo, which was clearly intended to suggest something more. |
Nothing was intended....you just failed the rational being test by applying your pre existing biases! [Post edited 7 Mar 2020 12:46]
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| Panic over... on 12:05 - Mar 7 with 1590 views | Guthrum |
| Panic over... on 11:51 - Mar 7 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Under....I think they want their economy back on the rails. |
Tho that carries considerable risk. There has already been criticism of the leadership over their initial response to C-19. They don't want Hong Kong style unrest spreading to the mainland. |  |
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| Panic over... on 12:21 - Mar 7 with 1571 views | J2BLUE |
| Panic over... on 11:54 - Mar 7 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Nothing was intended....you just failed the rational being test by applying your pre existing biases! [Post edited 7 Mar 2020 12:46]
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You've had a shocker here mate.
Just hold your hands up. |  |
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| Panic over... on 12:23 - Mar 7 with 1567 views | footers |
| Panic over... on 12:21 - Mar 7 by J2BLUE |
You've had a shocker here mate.
Just hold your hands up. |
But wash them thoroughly first. |  |
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| Panic over... on 12:25 - Mar 7 with 1564 views | jeera |
| Panic over... on 12:21 - Mar 7 by J2BLUE |
You've had a shocker here mate.
Just hold your hands up. |
Poor guy.
He's managed to post that while Stokie, Bully and Guthers were all online at the same time.
Well and truly f*cked. |  |
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| Panic over... on 12:26 - Mar 7 with 1559 views | J2BLUE |
| Panic over... on 12:25 - Mar 7 by jeera |
Poor guy.
He's managed to post that while Stokie, Bully and Guthers were all online at the same time.
Well and truly f*cked. |
Agreed. | |
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| Panic over... on 12:49 - Mar 7 with 1533 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Panic over... on 12:21 - Mar 7 by J2BLUE |
You've had a shocker here mate.
Just hold your hands up. |
Perhaps you would care to break down for me what it was you believe I was saying.
I will give you one though...with the amount of Chinese involvement in Africa I would have expected far more cases there.
Italy suggests that the virus has been uncontained for much longer than we are led to believe too imho.
[Post edited 7 Mar 2020 12:58]
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| Panic over... on 12:51 - Mar 7 with 1529 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Panic over... on 11:49 - Mar 7 by sparks |
What are you on about? You threw out the same old silly innuendo, suggesting some conspiracy that you understood and others didnt. Its taken a page for you to clarify.
Your clarification eventually leads to a very simple and obvious point that no one disagrees with. You may wish to consider the possibility that your initial post was ambiguous.
Though you already know that- and I strongly suspect you meant something more than you are now admitting under challenge. |
Similarly....would you explain what conspiracy you believe I was pushing. | |
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| Panic over... on 12:53 - Mar 7 with 1524 views | J2BLUE |
| Panic over... on 12:49 - Mar 7 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Perhaps you would care to break down for me what it was you believe I was saying.
I will give you one though...with the amount of Chinese involvement in Africa I would have expected far more cases there.
Italy suggests that the virus has been uncontained for much longer than we are led to believe too imho.
[Post edited 7 Mar 2020 12:58]
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You were implying some big conspiracy like you normally do and then you either backtrack or avoid saying exactly what you mean. | |
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| Panic over... on 12:53 - Mar 7 with 1522 views | WeWereZombies |
| Panic over... on 11:48 - Mar 7 by Oxford_Blue |
Exactly. The death rate is about 3%. Even if you reduce that to 1%, and even if only 50% of the population of the UK get this virus, that’s about 300,000 to 400,000 dead. This is hugely more than seasonal flu deaths and it will hit certain groups particularly hard. This also spreads far more easily than flu. The impact of such a large number of people needing care, being unable to work or look after children is going to create real issues. |
I agree with the thrust of your argument but are half the population likely to catch coronavirus? The arithmetic after that is OK, sixty million halved is thirty million at 1% is three hundred thousand, but with worldwide cases estimated at one hundred thousand it is currently a seventy thousandth of an estimated population of seven billion (or seven milliard if you are old school...or Russian). No doubt the number of cases of infection will ramp up but from a seventy thousandth to half in a state with one of the best healthcare systems in the World? |  |
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| Panic over... on 13:00 - Mar 7 with 1507 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Panic over... on 12:25 - Mar 7 by jeera |
Poor guy.
He's managed to post that while Stokie, Bully and Guthers were all online at the same time.
Well and truly f*cked. |
I don't think Guthers accused me of pushing unspecified conspiracies....the other 2 are showing there usual Houyhnhnm tendencies. | |
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| Panic over... on 13:01 - Mar 7 with 1503 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Panic over... on 12:53 - Mar 7 by J2BLUE |
You were implying some big conspiracy like you normally do and then you either backtrack or avoid saying exactly what you mean. |
Lol....another mind reader. | |
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| Panic over... on 13:06 - Mar 7 with 1489 views | Coastalblue |
| Panic over... on 13:00 - Mar 7 by BanksterDebtSlave |
I don't think Guthers accused me of pushing unspecified conspiracies....the other 2 are showing there usual Houyhnhnm tendencies. |
Why not accept some on here, myself for one, clearly don't have your intellect and are unable to read between the lines of what you post?
Why not just say what you mean, unless you'd rather not converse with us thickies? |  |
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| Panic over... on 13:10 - Mar 7 with 1489 views | hampstead_blue |
China is an authoritarian state so can lock its people down. That's the best way to stop the darn thing.
Problem is that we can't do it.
Can you imagine the outcry if the Gov did that! It would be bedlam. |  |
| Assumption is to make an ass out of you and me.
Those who assume they know you, when they don't are just guessing.
Those who assume and insist they know are daft and in denial.
Those who assume, insist, and deny the truth are plain stupid.
Those who assume, insist, deny the truth and tell YOU they know you (when they don't) have an IQ in the range of 35-49.
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| Panic over... on 13:10 - Mar 7 with 1486 views | blueconscience |
| Panic over... on 11:44 - Mar 7 by Oxford_Blue |
Flu is less contagious and the death rate is about 0.1%. |
Don’t forget that the percentages are only being measured against known cases, so could be a little exaggerated? |  |
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| Panic over... on 13:10 - Mar 7 with 1488 views | gordon |
| Panic over... on 12:53 - Mar 7 by WeWereZombies |
I agree with the thrust of your argument but are half the population likely to catch coronavirus? The arithmetic after that is OK, sixty million halved is thirty million at 1% is three hundred thousand, but with worldwide cases estimated at one hundred thousand it is currently a seventy thousandth of an estimated population of seven billion (or seven milliard if you are old school...or Russian). No doubt the number of cases of infection will ramp up but from a seventy thousandth to half in a state with one of the best healthcare systems in the World? |
If you take a (conservative) daily increase in cases of 20%, and start with 200 cases today, half the UK population will have contracted the virus in about 66 days.
Having said that, the spread of the virus will begin to slow down as the proportion of people who have already have the virus and are (presumably) immune to catching it again in the population increases. That's why the predictions are for e.g. 60-80% of the population to catch it, not everyone, because the re-infection rate falls below 1 at a certain level of immunity within the population. |  | | |
| Panic over... on 13:23 - Mar 7 with 1466 views | Oxford_Blue |
| Panic over... on 12:53 - Mar 7 by WeWereZombies |
I agree with the thrust of your argument but are half the population likely to catch coronavirus? The arithmetic after that is OK, sixty million halved is thirty million at 1% is three hundred thousand, but with worldwide cases estimated at one hundred thousand it is currently a seventy thousandth of an estimated population of seven billion (or seven milliard if you are old school...or Russian). No doubt the number of cases of infection will ramp up but from a seventy thousandth to half in a state with one of the best healthcare systems in the World? |
Population is about 68 million.
The virus spreads very quickly. Look at Italy. We are only at the beginning of this.
Healthcare in this country is underfunded but no system can cope with a sudden huge number of cases. | | | |
| Panic over... on 13:24 - Mar 7 with 1463 views | Oxford_Blue |
| Panic over... on 13:10 - Mar 7 by gordon |
If you take a (conservative) daily increase in cases of 20%, and start with 200 cases today, half the UK population will have contracted the virus in about 66 days.
Having said that, the spread of the virus will begin to slow down as the proportion of people who have already have the virus and are (presumably) immune to catching it again in the population increases. That's why the predictions are for e.g. 60-80% of the population to catch it, not everyone, because the re-infection rate falls below 1 at a certain level of immunity within the population. |
In which case there will be about 200,000 to 400,000 deaths. | | | |
| Panic over... on 13:25 - Mar 7 with 1456 views | blueconscience |
| Panic over... on 13:24 - Mar 7 by Oxford_Blue |
In which case there will be about 200,000 to 400,000 deaths. |
Can you please type a post with something positive, your posts are depressing me!!!
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| Panic over... on 13:27 - Mar 7 with 1458 views | gordon |
| Panic over... on 13:24 - Mar 7 by Oxford_Blue |
In which case there will be about 200,000 to 400,000 deaths. |
A big determinant of how many deaths there are is how much the spread of the virus is delayed, and thus the extent to which the health system can cope. There is a lot of evidence from the Spanish Flu in 1918 of different societies taking different approaches - basically the if capacity of the health system is an issue, then the smart thing is to start cancelling events / gatherings as early as possible. [Post edited 7 Mar 2020 13:27]
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| Panic over... on 13:28 - Mar 7 with 1454 views | sparks |
| Panic over... on 12:53 - Mar 7 by J2BLUE |
You were implying some big conspiracy like you normally do and then you either backtrack or avoid saying exactly what you mean. |
This. Notably- he has now thrown another piece of innuendo in the mix about Africa! | |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| Panic over... on 13:32 - Mar 7 with 1447 views | sparks |
| Panic over... on 13:27 - Mar 7 by gordon |
A big determinant of how many deaths there are is how much the spread of the virus is delayed, and thus the extent to which the health system can cope. There is a lot of evidence from the Spanish Flu in 1918 of different societies taking different approaches - basically the if capacity of the health system is an issue, then the smart thing is to start cancelling events / gatherings as early as possible. [Post edited 7 Mar 2020 13:27]
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Re-infection seems to be entirely possible.
Importantly, other corona viruses (and there are a number of them, some of which effectively give us colds...) are far less prevalent int he summer because the UV levels make spreading the virus far less likely. They last far less time in the open than in murky winter months. | |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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