By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions. We in turn value your personal details in accordance with our Privacy Policy.
Please log in or register. Registered visitors get fewer ads.
It's a bit like that leaked report saying that it could last until next spring. Within that report it probably also said something along the lines that the best case scenario is two months.
But they only feel fit to scare people
Indeed - personally, I'd rather know best and worst case though?
Ade Akinbiyi couldn't hit a cows arse with a banjo...
I didn't hear that - does seem a rather naive analysis.
SB
Plus all the noises I'm getting is that herd immunity may be a non starter for technical reasons. Also, it thus becoming endemic in the UK population could cause issues with the rest of the world who have gone for an isolation/eradication policy.
Plus all the noises I'm getting is that herd immunity may be a non starter for technical reasons. Also, it thus becoming endemic in the UK population could cause issues with the rest of the world who have gone for an isolation/eradication policy.
A lot of unknown factors. Isolation doesn't seem to have flattened the curve in Italy or Spain but it's also probably too early to tell - it should work in theory.
That is interesting but I have to say from my limited experience of getting (sort of) shipwrecked on the Isle of Man that sails are fine when the breeze is firm but very disappointing when the wind drops and utterly frightening when a gale blows.
I am going to have a read of that article though, a hybrid approach could be viable. Let's see if Newcy picks this up.
It has to be said that trading patterns will dictate the usefulness of having some form of sail hybrid. Hence the name of trade winds. It’s an interesting concept and plenty more innovation to come. A combination of ICE, rotor sails, and some form of solar energy would be useful, even if just taking load off the engines to allow them to run more efficiently.
I listened to something on the radio about that letter and it's not actually from scientists in the field - it even says it in the article:
"though no leading experts in the science of the spread of diseases"
So whilst their concerns should be listened to, I don't think they should be held up as an example of not listening to experts given their specialities. You wouldn't ask an economist how to perform open heart surgery.
You are generally right though, there is no consensus even amongst virologists which makes things harder.
SB
A lot were certainly behavioural scientists, so although not viroligists (as you say), they were coming at things from a people perspective and managing the situation.
One wonders if the step up in comms and briefing is, in part, due to that feedback?
As you say though, there does seem to also be a lack of agreement amongst that in the field as well - not surprising but interesting all the same.
Ade Akinbiyi couldn't hit a cows arse with a banjo...
A lot of unknown factors. Isolation doesn't seem to have flattened the curve in Italy or Spain but it's also probably too early to tell - it should work in theory.
SB
It's impossible to tell. We don't yet have the accurate modelling to tell whether those do represent some flattening of the curve, or what other factors are in play (e.g. too late or slow with the imposition of isolation). By a roughly similar stage through their outbreak, there were nearly twice as many cases in China as in Italy now.
It's impossible to tell. We don't yet have the accurate modelling to tell whether those do represent some flattening of the curve, or what other factors are in play (e.g. too late or slow with the imposition of isolation). By a roughly similar stage through their outbreak, there were nearly twice as many cases in China as in Italy now.
When are you taking the start of the outbreak from? Seems it was at least early December from more recent reports.
Totally agree it's impossible to say at the moment. Too many variables and not enough data.
When are you taking the start of the outbreak from? Seems it was at least early December from more recent reports.
Totally agree it's impossible to say at the moment. Too many variables and not enough data.
SB
For that purpose, the point when numbers of cases started to climb rapidly. Numbers in China were moderate until about mid Jan, then exploded, climbing from a couple of hundred to 75k in a month.
Looking at the figures in more detail, on 21st Feb, Italy had 20 known cases. As of yesterday, 23 days later, they had 24.7k. Over a similar period, between 16th Jan and 8th Feb, China went from 45 known cases to 37.2k, tho a couple of days later they changed the counting method (to include clinical diagnosis) and figures jumped to 48.3k.
My confidence in the Government advisers was somewhat shaken when one stated that a sufferer in a football crowd would infect at most two or three others (the global averge in all situations) rather than the more obvious risk of close contact with maybe hundreds of others.
Either very loose thinking on the application of statistics, or a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of a football stand concourse. Neither of which is a good thing.
Well the Government adviser was well out with the numbers in 2009 re the swine flu pandemic so let's hope it's the same case here.
"Swine flu: 65,000 deaths is UK's worst case scenario"
"The chief medical officer, Professor Sir Liam Donaldson, said that in the worst case scenario 30% of the UK population could be infected by the H1N1 virus, with 65,000 killed."
"The best case scenario is that 5% of the population contract the virus, with 3,100 deaths."
Even one death is dreadful and tragic but the final count in the UK was actually 474 which is still a terribly high number but it was quite a bit lower than the actually projection made by the Government adviser.
For that purpose, the point when numbers of cases started to climb rapidly. Numbers in China were moderate until about mid Jan, then exploded, climbing from a couple of hundred to 75k in a month.
Looking at the figures in more detail, on 21st Feb, Italy had 20 known cases. As of yesterday, 23 days later, they had 24.7k. Over a similar period, between 16th Jan and 8th Feb, China went from 45 known cases to 37.2k, tho a couple of days later they changed the counting method (to include clinical diagnosis) and figures jumped to 48.3k.
That's is a fair assessment, assuming one believes the party numbers which is up for debate.
One factor to include in there is the density of population. Wuhan alone has a population of 4-5 times that of Rome and 8 times that of Milan. There were also a number of other cities in Hubei which were infected at the start with populations larger than any city in Italy.
What is the data set they are using 're who can help with child care while I carry on nursing? Sometimes Stokie you are so compliant it hurts..
It's just plain common sense. Who looks after the children if parent is at work in the hospital? Other parent is not always an option, other parent may also work in healthcare, grandparents may be isolated. Not just looking after, but planning activities (which don't involve going anywhere) for a mass of bored youngsters not even allowed out to play together.
"The chief medical officer, Professor Sir Liam Donaldson, said that in the worst case scenario 30% of the UK population could be infected by the H1N1 virus, with 65,000 killed."
"The best case scenario is that 5% of the population contract the virus, with 3,100 deaths."
Even one death is dreadful and tragic but the final count in the UK was actually 474 which is still a terribly high number but it was quite a bit lower than the actually projection made by the Government adviser.
Swine Flu, fortunately, turned out to be a lot less dangerous than was thought. Tho that was partly because it is just a form of Influenza, which we already knew how to treat. Also has a shorter incubation period (thus less time asymptomatic when it is likely to be passed on).
To be fair, governments have to plan based on worst case scenarios, because if it turns out to be and they haven't ...
Swine Flu, fortunately, turned out to be a lot less dangerous than was thought. Tho that was partly because it is just a form of Influenza, which we already knew how to treat. Also has a shorter incubation period (thus less time asymptomatic when it is likely to be passed on).
To be fair, governments have to plan based on worst case scenarios, because if it turns out to be and they haven't ...
Yes thankfully and i understand about plans and the worse case scenario but re the swine flu the government adviser was quite a bit out on the numbers for the best case scenario so let's hope it's the same case here regarding the projections from this latest adviser.
That's is a fair assessment, assuming one believes the party numbers which is up for debate.
One factor to include in there is the density of population. Wuhan alone has a population of 4-5 times that of Rome and 8 times that of Milan. There were also a number of other cities in Hubei which were infected at the start with populations larger than any city in Italy.
SB
Tho China introduced a far more drastic lockdown than Italy, at an earlier stage.
An advantage China had was they were able to very tightly lock down one region, meaning the rest of the country was still able to support it medically, logistically and economically. Locking down the whole of Italy leaves no base of support from other areas operating more normally.
So maybe the data should be shared with all the experts telling them they are wrong.....testing people more might help too!!
Testing is something of a bottleneck. It needs lab facilities and takes a couple of days. Plus you have to produce enough testing kits, distribute them and safely take the samples (which involves standing uncomfortably close to someone who may well have Covid-19). Not something which can be done just like that.
Testing is something of a bottleneck. It needs lab facilities and takes a couple of days. Plus you have to produce enough testing kits, distribute them and safely take the samples (which involves standing uncomfortably close to someone who may well have Covid-19). Not something which can be done just like that.
Although South Korea seems to have done well in this respect:
This is a good point - the communication has been poor.
Let's see how the daily press conference goes today.
SB
Just stumbled on this from the former Dep Director of Government Comms who helped handle the swine flu outbreak. Some interesting thoughts on what hasn't worked well so far and what needs to happen.
SK have done really well but they are still only testing 3,500 per 1,000,000 people.
Someone needs to come up with a test which takes minutes and doesn't require acceleration and sequencing in a lab - that will make a massive difference but easier said than done.
Yes. They decided it was a priority and threw resources at it. Also helps they have a significant hotspot (Daegu), where they can concentrate their efforts. We do not have the same situation, so a testing scheme on a similar scale would have to be on the basis of random sampling across the country, or trying to cope with everyone who feels a bit ill (or knows someone who does).
Contact tracing with known cases would be the best way, but is difficult, time consuming and has privacy/data protection/legal issues if any of the technology- or data-based tools are used.
Testing is something of a bottleneck. It needs lab facilities and takes a couple of days. Plus you have to produce enough testing kits, distribute them and safely take the samples (which involves standing uncomfortably close to someone who may well have Covid-19). Not something which can be done just like that.
Someone should tell the WHO.
"They break our legs and tell us to be grateful when they offer us crutches."
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
