| They really need to get a grip on testing 11:20 - Mar 19 with 2930 views | Harry_Palmer |
This case from Lowestoft is a little worrying with regards to lack of testing.
https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/highly-suspected-coronavirus-kelly-eade-lowestoft-su
"The mum-of-three said paramedics recorded her as having COVID-19 in her medical notes. Although she says she was not officially tested, paramedics ruled out other illnesses including flu, a cold and a throat infection."
Is it not a little concerning that this case was seemingly recorded as Covid-19 without any test having taken place? Surely if somebody is ill enough to require paramedics and their symptoms match they should be a priority for testing to get it confirmed as fact, not a best guess?
From what I can see Covid-19 symptoms are not notably different to other seasonal respiratory illnesses that in previous years would have just been put down to 'a virus' (unknown ) by your GP. I have experienced this myself and I'm sure many others have, so how can they be certain this is Covid-19 and not a different virus?
It seems to me at the moment that in reality they have absolutely no idea what the actual scale of the breakout is in the UK, so how can huge decisions like shutting down the economy be made on guesswork and statistical modelling?
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| They really need to get a grip on testing on 11:32 - Mar 19 with 2349 views | Guthrum |
Clinical diagnosis was used in China, alongside testing. |  |
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| They really need to get a grip on testing on 11:35 - Mar 19 with 2338 views | Pinewoodblue |
Statistical modeling works it is involved I’m most business decisions. |  |
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| They really need to get a grip on testing on 11:42 - Mar 19 with 2319 views | Bluesquid |
I saw something a little similar before, some guy on CNN was diagnosed and said his 'test' consisted of a series of questions and then based on his symptoms.
I agree it is concerning that it seems that this case will be recorded as Covid without any official test and then added to the rest of the statistics, updated and broadcast all over the media in mere minutes.
It is concerning, but hey, at least the celebs are getting tested. |  | | |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 11:50 - Mar 19 with 2302 views | Harry_Palmer |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 11:35 - Mar 19 by Pinewoodblue |
Statistical modeling works it is involved I’m most business decisions. |
With all due respect this is a little more than 'most business decisions'. We are talking about the whole country, maybe World going into lockdown and economic meltdown.
Surely we need solid facts to base decisions on. This ladies diagnosis is not very scientific is it? | | | |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 11:53 - Mar 19 with 2293 views | Guthrum |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 11:50 - Mar 19 by Harry_Palmer |
With all due respect this is a little more than 'most business decisions'. We are talking about the whole country, maybe World going into lockdown and economic meltdown.
Surely we need solid facts to base decisions on. This ladies diagnosis is not very scientific is it? |
This is erring on the side of caution. Plus, for more advanced cases, there are ways of very definitely diagnosing it, from the effects upon the lungs.
In any case, the tests have also produced a small number of false positives and negatives, too. For decisionmaking, these very minor inaccuracies are irrelevant, they're looking at general trends. | |
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| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:01 - Mar 19 with 2283 views | Harry_Palmer |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 11:32 - Mar 19 by Guthrum |
Clinical diagnosis was used in China, alongside testing. |
That doesn't really reassure or answer the questions though. I appreciate this is an unprecedented situation and there is always an angle to be found for criticism but really they need to at least be testing cases like this in order to get reliable statistics.
Prof. Whitty spoke yesterday about getting tests carried out on people retrospectively or even on groups who have had no symptoms to see if they have had it anyway. Let's hope this becomes reality sooner rather than later as it would be a game changer in terms of getting a clearer idea of the overall picture. | | | |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:09 - Mar 19 with 2251 views | Pinewoodblue |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:01 - Mar 19 by Harry_Palmer |
That doesn't really reassure or answer the questions though. I appreciate this is an unprecedented situation and there is always an angle to be found for criticism but really they need to at least be testing cases like this in order to get reliable statistics.
Prof. Whitty spoke yesterday about getting tests carried out on people retrospectively or even on groups who have had no symptoms to see if they have had it anyway. Let's hope this becomes reality sooner rather than later as it would be a game changer in terms of getting a clearer idea of the overall picture. |
There isn’t currently a test, anywhere in the world, to identify those who have had it. We may well, in this country, have such a test available before this is over.
Yes it could be a game changer but the game may be over before then. | |
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| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:09 - Mar 19 with 2249 views | BloomBlue |
But when I go to the Doc they will normally base their decision on my symptoms they don't test every time, am I missing something here? |  | | |
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| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:14 - Mar 19 with 2225 views | Harry_Palmer |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 11:53 - Mar 19 by Guthrum |
This is erring on the side of caution. Plus, for more advanced cases, there are ways of very definitely diagnosing it, from the effects upon the lungs.
In any case, the tests have also produced a small number of false positives and negatives, too. For decisionmaking, these very minor inaccuracies are irrelevant, they're looking at general trends. |
Yes I have heard about false positives and negatives which again undermines any confidence in the figures that are currently being recorded as facts. If they are looking at general trends, what are they basing them on? Guesswork? Other countries?( who may be using equally inconsistent approaches ).
There is certainly an awful lot of fear being generated on the back of somewhat dubious evidence. I guess we just have to have faith in the scientific expertise in this country to come up with the right solutions because there is so much riding on it. | | | |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:17 - Mar 19 with 2203 views | Darth_Koont |
Although the UK aren't lagging behind testing in global terms. We've done more than most.
Agreed though that testing seems like it should be done in the case of emergency services being needed. Even if the treatment is the same as if it was another respiratory problem, I'm guessing that it's important to measure Covid-19 cases for the response and future planning of resources. |  |
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| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:22 - Mar 19 with 2190 views | Harry_Palmer |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:09 - Mar 19 by BloomBlue |
But when I go to the Doc they will normally base their decision on my symptoms they don't test every time, am I missing something here? |
Yes I think you are, when you go to doc and are diagnosed with a 'virus' or sickness bug and a few thousand other people around the country do the same it doesn't usually result in the measures being taken currently around the World.
The symptoms attributed to Covid-19 are not only similar to many un-named viruses we have seen in the past but they are also rather vague, ranging from no symptoms at all, to mild symptoms, to severe respiratory illness. Do you not want to at least be re-assured that the headline figures you see on the news ( that are the cause of everything going on around us ) are 100% factual? [Post edited 19 Mar 2020 12:24]
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| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:23 - Mar 19 with 2175 views | Guthrum |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:14 - Mar 19 by Harry_Palmer |
Yes I have heard about false positives and negatives which again undermines any confidence in the figures that are currently being recorded as facts. If they are looking at general trends, what are they basing them on? Guesswork? Other countries?( who may be using equally inconsistent approaches ).
There is certainly an awful lot of fear being generated on the back of somewhat dubious evidence. I guess we just have to have faith in the scientific expertise in this country to come up with the right solutions because there is so much riding on it. |
The numbers of false results from tests are extremely small. As I said, statistically irrelevant.
The evidence is in no way dubious. There is a very serious outbreak of a virus for which we do not currently have a deliverable cure or vaccine going on worldwide, which has already cost the lives of several thousand people.
Lots of very clever people are working on solutions, both medical and policy, for this situation. But these things cannot be done instantly. Covid-19 only emerged as a significant problem less than three months ago. In medical R&D terms, that's the blink of an eye. The authorities are learning as they go along. Mistakes are bound to be made, with perhaps dire consequences. | |
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| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:30 - Mar 19 with 2152 views | eireblue |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 11:50 - Mar 19 by Harry_Palmer |
With all due respect this is a little more than 'most business decisions'. We are talking about the whole country, maybe World going into lockdown and economic meltdown.
Surely we need solid facts to base decisions on. This ladies diagnosis is not very scientific is it? |
What decisions are being made on the ladies diagnosis?
Are the stats being used for decision making based on "Confirmed Cases", i.e. those people that have been tested? |  | | |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:31 - Mar 19 with 2144 views | Guthrum |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:22 - Mar 19 by Harry_Palmer |
Yes I think you are, when you go to doc and are diagnosed with a 'virus' or sickness bug and a few thousand other people around the country do the same it doesn't usually result in the measures being taken currently around the World.
The symptoms attributed to Covid-19 are not only similar to many un-named viruses we have seen in the past but they are also rather vague, ranging from no symptoms at all, to mild symptoms, to severe respiratory illness. Do you not want to at least be re-assured that the headline figures you see on the news ( that are the cause of everything going on around us ) are 100% factual? [Post edited 19 Mar 2020 12:24]
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'The symptoms attributed to Covid-19 are not only similar to many un-named viruses we have seen in the past but they are also rather vague ...'
Only on a superficial level. Combination of fever (elevated temperature), persistent dry cough, no runny nose, are not the same as Influenza, Rhinovirus or other Coronavirus variants. There are further signs, once it beins to affect the lungs, which are quite distinctive.
A "mild" dose of C-19 is not like having a slight cold. It is more akin to a bad dose of genuine 'Flu, will put you in bed. When serious, it develops into pneumonia and you need hospitalisation. | |
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| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:36 - Mar 19 with 2132 views | Harry_Palmer |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:23 - Mar 19 by Guthrum |
The numbers of false results from tests are extremely small. As I said, statistically irrelevant.
The evidence is in no way dubious. There is a very serious outbreak of a virus for which we do not currently have a deliverable cure or vaccine going on worldwide, which has already cost the lives of several thousand people.
Lots of very clever people are working on solutions, both medical and policy, for this situation. But these things cannot be done instantly. Covid-19 only emerged as a significant problem less than three months ago. In medical R&D terms, that's the blink of an eye. The authorities are learning as they go along. Mistakes are bound to be made, with perhaps dire consequences. |
I have highlighted a case in which a lady was given a very unscientific diagnosis of Covid-19. Now we don't know for sure if this was included in the stats for recorded cases but it seems very likely based on the info she gave which was that the paramedics recorded it on her medical notes as Covid-19.
In any given year we will see seasonal illness with similar symptoms to those this lady described, surely we need to be sure her case is Covid-19 before including it in the figures? If this is being replicated with other suspected cases then to me that makes the evidence questionable. | | | |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:44 - Mar 19 with 2101 views | Harry_Palmer |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:30 - Mar 19 by eireblue |
What decisions are being made on the ladies diagnosis?
Are the stats being used for decision making based on "Confirmed Cases", i.e. those people that have been tested? |
I don't think I said any decisions were being made on her individual diagnosis, I did say that it was not very scientific though, would you not agree?
In answer to your second question, I don't know for sure but would appear not. That is really my point, how are they arriving at the 'confirmed' figure when the testing seems to be very inconsistent. | | | |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:45 - Mar 19 with 2096 views | eireblue |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:36 - Mar 19 by Harry_Palmer |
I have highlighted a case in which a lady was given a very unscientific diagnosis of Covid-19. Now we don't know for sure if this was included in the stats for recorded cases but it seems very likely based on the info she gave which was that the paramedics recorded it on her medical notes as Covid-19.
In any given year we will see seasonal illness with similar symptoms to those this lady described, surely we need to be sure her case is Covid-19 before including it in the figures? If this is being replicated with other suspected cases then to me that makes the evidence questionable. |
"Now we don't know for sure if this was included in the stats for recorded cases but it seems very likely based on the info she gave which was that the paramedics recorded it on her medical notes as Covid-19."
From the FCO web site.
"As of 9am on 18 March 2020, 56,221 people have been tested in the UK, of which 53,595 were confirmed negative and 2,626 were confirmed positive."
This stuff is fairly easy to find. | | | |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:48 - Mar 19 with 2082 views | Cotty |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 11:35 - Mar 19 by Pinewoodblue |
Statistical modeling works it is involved I’m most business decisions. |
Statistical modelling needs good data. Sh*te in = Shh*te out. Without good ballpark data on a national scale your models mean not a thing. |  | | |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:52 - Mar 19 with 2071 views | Guthrum |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:36 - Mar 19 by Harry_Palmer |
I have highlighted a case in which a lady was given a very unscientific diagnosis of Covid-19. Now we don't know for sure if this was included in the stats for recorded cases but it seems very likely based on the info she gave which was that the paramedics recorded it on her medical notes as Covid-19.
In any given year we will see seasonal illness with similar symptoms to those this lady described, surely we need to be sure her case is Covid-19 before including it in the figures? If this is being replicated with other suspected cases then to me that makes the evidence questionable. |
In what way is this form of diagnosis 'unscientific'? It's the way most illnesses are diagnosed everywhere, by examining the symptoms.
Bear in mind the analysis of symptoms and examination by the medics (not to mention a review of the lady's recent movements and contacts) may have been a lot more detailed and thorough than the brief description in the paper.
Altho it was recorded in her medical notes, the article doesn't actually state she has been added to the number of confirmed cases. Indeed, the statistical information being put out by DHSC and reported in the media specifically refers to positive tests. So it's very llikely we have more cases in the UK than the official headline figure. | |
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| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:54 - Mar 19 with 2065 views | Guthrum |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:48 - Mar 19 by Cotty |
Statistical modelling needs good data. Sh*te in = Shh*te out. Without good ballpark data on a national scale your models mean not a thing. |
Not to mention that all of the data is incomplete.
Good to see you on here again, BTW! | |
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| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:55 - Mar 19 with 2060 views | Harry_Palmer |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:45 - Mar 19 by eireblue |
"Now we don't know for sure if this was included in the stats for recorded cases but it seems very likely based on the info she gave which was that the paramedics recorded it on her medical notes as Covid-19."
From the FCO web site.
"As of 9am on 18 March 2020, 56,221 people have been tested in the UK, of which 53,595 were confirmed negative and 2,626 were confirmed positive."
This stuff is fairly easy to find. |
Not sure how that explains why this lady wasn't tested but still given a positive diagnosis, but thanks for the info. | | | |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:56 - Mar 19 with 2055 views | Cotty |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:54 - Mar 19 by Guthrum |
Not to mention that all of the data is incomplete.
Good to see you on here again, BTW! |
Incomplete data can be dealt with, although of course it produces additional uncertainty.
Yeah, even signed back onto Facebook. Not a good time to isolate online! | | | |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 13:01 - Mar 19 with 2029 views | BloomBlue |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:22 - Mar 19 by Harry_Palmer |
Yes I think you are, when you go to doc and are diagnosed with a 'virus' or sickness bug and a few thousand other people around the country do the same it doesn't usually result in the measures being taken currently around the World.
The symptoms attributed to Covid-19 are not only similar to many un-named viruses we have seen in the past but they are also rather vague, ranging from no symptoms at all, to mild symptoms, to severe respiratory illness. Do you not want to at least be re-assured that the headline figures you see on the news ( that are the cause of everything going on around us ) are 100% factual? [Post edited 19 Mar 2020 12:24]
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Yes / No we'll always have a limited number of resources I would prefer resources help those seriously ill than worry about testing if I have a mild case of CV or a mild case of flu. Also a bit like flu we never know how many people actually have flu its an estimate and I don't make a fuss about flu estimates
Probably more to do with my old age as I said on another chat I've been told for the last 10+ years if I don't have the flu jab there is a good chance if I catch flu it will kill me and now I'm told the same about CV. I guess I'm more concerned about the end impact than understanding who had a mild case | | | |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 13:01 - Mar 19 with 2026 views | eireblue |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:55 - Mar 19 by Harry_Palmer |
Not sure how that explains why this lady wasn't tested but still given a positive diagnosis, but thanks for the info. |
"There is certainly an awful lot of fear being generated on the back of somewhat dubious evidence. "
There have been people tested. In the UK and other countries.
Government statistics state the numbers are for tested cases.
Why are you assuming the stats are based on un-tested but suspected cases? | | | |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 13:05 - Mar 19 with 2010 views | Harry_Palmer |
| They really need to get a grip on testing on 12:52 - Mar 19 by Guthrum |
In what way is this form of diagnosis 'unscientific'? It's the way most illnesses are diagnosed everywhere, by examining the symptoms.
Bear in mind the analysis of symptoms and examination by the medics (not to mention a review of the lady's recent movements and contacts) may have been a lot more detailed and thorough than the brief description in the paper.
Altho it was recorded in her medical notes, the article doesn't actually state she has been added to the number of confirmed cases. Indeed, the statistical information being put out by DHSC and reported in the media specifically refers to positive tests. So it's very llikely we have more cases in the UK than the official headline figure. |
Its quite obviously not a scientific diagnosis, but I'm pretty sure you don't need me to explain that. As I said to Bloomers most 'virus' diagnosis does not lead to the measures we are currently seeing unfold before us so I would hope that a more conclusive approach to getting accurate figures might be forthcoming.
In any case, I will stand down as I can see I'm not going to convince you of my point and thankfully I still have work to be getting on with.....for now at least! | | | |
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