| Trump falls further in poll 13:59 - Oct 4 with 3178 views | HARRY10 |
This from the Telegraph - 4 October 2020 - 1:44pm
'Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate in the US election, has extended his lead over Donald Trump in new poll following the President's admission to hospital.
The poll found that 51 per cent were backing Biden, while 41 per cent said they were voting for Trump.
Mr Biden's 10-point edge over the sitting President is 1 to 2 points higher than leads Biden posted over the past several weeks.
Almost two thirds Americans were also found to agree that "if President Trump had taken coronavirus more seriously, he probably would not have been infected."
Only 34 per cent said they thought that Trump has been telling them the truth about the coronavirus, while 55 per cent said that he was not and 11 per cent were unsure.' |  | | |  |
| Trump falls further in poll on 15:20 - Oct 4 with 932 views | Trequartista |
| Trump falls further in poll on 15:16 - Oct 4 by HARRY10 |
"opinion polls predicting a hung parliament when the Conservatives won, a Conservative win which was a hung parliament, a win for Remain over Leave and a win for Clinton over Trump. "
as stated none of those supposed polls were published so close to the vore as now
nor were they based on a fairly consistent and prolonged period
they also do not reflect any longer term trend
I could claim that polls putting Labour 25 points behind in the 2017 election show how polls are wrong - if I did not then show the following polls up to the election itself
so to clarify, the US polls have shown Biden consistently ahead in the overall poll for months, have shown a gradual widening of that lead in recent weeks and have also shown that in the marginal states there has been a consistent, if small, move away from Trump to Biden
those three qualifications are enough to suggest that Biden will win comfortably
however do note the word suggest |
i have given my evidence below and all of the polls are as near or nearer to the vote than 1 month away. the us election one looks to be on the actual day of the vote. |  |
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| Trump falls further in poll on 15:31 - Oct 4 with 908 views | HARRY10 |
You aren't too up on this, are you ?
The polls you list (as shown) are all over the place, whereas what I have repeatedly stated is that Biden's lead has been consistent (8% lead) for four months plus - that is the over arching factor.
That consistent lead suggests voters are not moving their vote - except by a small margin towards Biden. That the movement is in the marginal states also points towards Trump not being able to win.
Polls are only an expression of how voters will vote at that particular point. So having the polls staying the same for months on end suggests static voting patterns rather than accurate polls.
"If the Survation telephone poll (6 May) had been published it would have produced results within 1% of the election results. " | | | |
| Trump falls further in poll on 15:35 - Oct 4 with 898 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| Trump falls further in poll on 15:00 - Oct 4 by SpruceMoose |
Always best to flee when you've had your pants pulled down. Damage control dear boy.
Genuine insight trumps pub knowledge, if you pardon the pun. |
What he posted was correct though, and massive LOL that you’ve just described mad Harry as having genuine insight
Did you actually read any of the posts or just get excited that someone was having a pop at him? |  |
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| Trump falls further in poll on 15:35 - Oct 4 with 892 views | SpruceMoose |
I think you should stop embarrassing yourself. |  |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Trump falls further in poll on 15:37 - Oct 4 with 889 views | Vic |
| Trump falls further in poll on 14:58 - Oct 4 by HARRY10 |
With no evidence to back your claims |
I’m not sure he was claiming anything in particular was he - rather just pointing out that the pollsters were predicting the opinion polls have been wrong about elections and a referendum in the last few years. Not sure which bit of what he said you’re saying is incorrect. |  |
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| Trump falls further in poll on 15:37 - Oct 4 with 889 views | SpruceMoose |
| Trump falls further in poll on 15:35 - Oct 4 by C_HealyIsAPleasure |
What he posted was correct though, and massive LOL that you’ve just described mad Harry as having genuine insight
Did you actually read any of the posts or just get excited that someone was having a pop at him? |
What happened to you clutching your pearls about only commenting on the stuff related to where you live? Pipe down and chill your hypocrisy bro x | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Trump falls further in poll on 15:43 - Oct 4 with 873 views | Trequartista |
| Trump falls further in poll on 15:31 - Oct 4 by HARRY10 |
You aren't too up on this, are you ?
The polls you list (as shown) are all over the place, whereas what I have repeatedly stated is that Biden's lead has been consistent (8% lead) for four months plus - that is the over arching factor.
That consistent lead suggests voters are not moving their vote - except by a small margin towards Biden. That the movement is in the marginal states also points towards Trump not being able to win.
Polls are only an expression of how voters will vote at that particular point. So having the polls staying the same for months on end suggests static voting patterns rather than accurate polls.
"If the Survation telephone poll (6 May) had been published it would have produced results within 1% of the election results. " |
It is simply untrue to say they are all over the place. In 2017,every single poll is giving Conservatives a double digit lead up to 2 weeks before the election, and every final poll except the Survation outlier gives at least a 5 point lead.
It is even more consistent in 2015. I would say 80-90% of the polls have it no more than 3% either way from one month in. Even on polling day itself the overwhelming majority are wrong and the outlier is correct. [Post edited 4 Oct 2020 15:49]
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| Trump falls further in poll on 15:47 - Oct 4 with 858 views | Trequartista |
| Trump falls further in poll on 15:35 - Oct 4 by C_HealyIsAPleasure |
What he posted was correct though, and massive LOL that you’ve just described mad Harry as having genuine insight
Did you actually read any of the posts or just get excited that someone was having a pop at him? |
It's what he does. I can't be bothered to reply to it anymore, it doesn't register. | |
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| Trump falls further in poll on 15:50 - Oct 4 with 847 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| Trump falls further in poll on 15:37 - Oct 4 by SpruceMoose |
What happened to you clutching your pearls about only commenting on the stuff related to where you live? Pipe down and chill your hypocrisy bro x |
Im sure that sounded clever in your head, but his post wasn’t specific to the US election - in fact 3 of the 4 polling examples sighted were in the UK. As far as I can see everything in it was correct, and not even remotely controversial | |
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| Trump falls further in poll on 15:53 - Oct 4 with 842 views | HARRY10 |
| Trump falls further in poll on 15:43 - Oct 4 by Trequartista |
It is simply untrue to say they are all over the place. In 2017,every single poll is giving Conservatives a double digit lead up to 2 weeks before the election, and every final poll except the Survation outlier gives at least a 5 point lead.
It is even more consistent in 2015. I would say 80-90% of the polls have it no more than 3% either way from one month in. Even on polling day itself the overwhelming majority are wrong and the outlier is correct. [Post edited 4 Oct 2020 15:49]
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Clearly you haven't a clue about what you are rambling on about
You talk of " Every single poll is giving Conservatives a double digit lead up to 2 weeks before the election" when clearly that is a lie, as shown by your own link
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_genera
My point stands. Biden has had a clear and consistent lead for over four months. That his now increasing that leads suggests that voters are not shifting and so will be much the same come Nov 3rd. A large win for Biden, so stop making a fool of yourself by posting spurious nonsense in the hope it might change reality. | | | |
| Trump falls further in poll on 15:55 - Oct 4 with 842 views | Trequartista |
| Trump falls further in poll on 15:53 - Oct 4 by HARRY10 |
Clearly you haven't a clue about what you are rambling on about
You talk of " Every single poll is giving Conservatives a double digit lead up to 2 weeks before the election" when clearly that is a lie, as shown by your own link
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_genera
My point stands. Biden has had a clear and consistent lead for over four months. That his now increasing that leads suggests that voters are not shifting and so will be much the same come Nov 3rd. A large win for Biden, so stop making a fool of yourself by posting spurious nonsense in the hope it might change reality. |
The bit in bold was referring to 2017, as i then went on to make a different comment to describe 2015 - i have amended to make that clear.
And to counter your point about a 4 month lead - does the 2017 uk election data not show a solid 4 month lead for Conservatives from the corresponding time period (December 2016 - April 2017) yet they didn't win.
I'm not saying the polls are going to be wrong, i'm saying they are not necessarily going to be correct. [Post edited 4 Oct 2020 16:00]
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| Trump falls further in poll on 15:58 - Oct 4 with 822 views | SpruceMoose |
| Trump falls further in poll on 15:50 - Oct 4 by C_HealyIsAPleasure |
Im sure that sounded clever in your head, but his post wasn’t specific to the US election - in fact 3 of the 4 polling examples sighted were in the UK. As far as I can see everything in it was correct, and not even remotely controversial |
Going by your own wonky logic, I'm not sure you, as a bloke from a provincial British town, has much to offer in terms of insight as to what's happening on the ground here.
When I want a red hot take on what's happening with the Odean building I'll give you a shout though. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Trump falls further in poll on 16:02 - Oct 4 with 809 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| Trump falls further in poll on 15:58 - Oct 4 by SpruceMoose |
Going by your own wonky logic, I'm not sure you, as a bloke from a provincial British town, has much to offer in terms of insight as to what's happening on the ground here.
When I want a red hot take on what's happening with the Odean building I'll give you a shout though. |
Have you lost it? The discussion isn’t about anything happening on the ground anywhere you plum
That Ipswich comment really hit a nerve eh? | |
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| Trump falls further in poll on 16:05 - Oct 4 with 805 views | HARRY10 |
| Trump falls further in poll on 15:35 - Oct 4 by C_HealyIsAPleasure |
What he posted was correct though, and massive LOL that you’ve just described mad Harry as having genuine insight
Did you actually read any of the posts or just get excited that someone was having a pop at him? |
Have any of us actually read anything that remotely suggests a rebuttal from you in any shape or form ?
I would suggest the lack of that tells us all we need to know | | | |
| Trump falls further in poll on 16:12 - Oct 4 with 794 views | HARRY10 |
| Trump falls further in poll on 15:55 - Oct 4 by Trequartista |
The bit in bold was referring to 2017, as i then went on to make a different comment to describe 2015 - i have amended to make that clear.
And to counter your point about a 4 month lead - does the 2017 uk election data not show a solid 4 month lead for Conservatives from the corresponding time period (December 2016 - April 2017) yet they didn't win.
I'm not saying the polls are going to be wrong, i'm saying they are not necessarily going to be correct. [Post edited 4 Oct 2020 16:00]
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Whereas the polls show a very definite swing to Labour from when the election was announced. How is it that you cannot see that ?
Or is it, as I suspect, that you originally made a sweeping and inaccurate statement about opinion polls in some desperate attempt to defend Trump, and have simply dug your self deeper - if only by posting up stuff that refutes your claims
The polls in 2017 show a constant and dramatic swing to Labour leading up to the 2017 election... disproving your original claim
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#Opinion_polli | | | |
| Trump falls further in poll on 16:12 - Oct 4 with 795 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| Trump falls further in poll on 16:05 - Oct 4 by HARRY10 |
Have any of us actually read anything that remotely suggests a rebuttal from you in any shape or form ?
I would suggest the lack of that tells us all we need to know |
There’s not much point reposting what Trequartista has already posted - the examples he gave are clearly correct and one only needs to look back at published polling to confirm it
I do think Biden will win the election and agree with your general point that the trajectory is going the right way. However Trequartista’s comment about recent elections/referendum throwing up surprises and not celebrating too soon is certainly valid, and indeed wise given recent results
Your comment that everything in his post was incorrect is categorically wrong
Not everything warrants a full rebuttal btw, but happy to provide one anyway [Post edited 4 Oct 2020 16:13]
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| Trump falls further in poll on 16:30 - Oct 4 with 764 views | HARRY10 |
| Trump falls further in poll on 16:12 - Oct 4 by C_HealyIsAPleasure |
There’s not much point reposting what Trequartista has already posted - the examples he gave are clearly correct and one only needs to look back at published polling to confirm it
I do think Biden will win the election and agree with your general point that the trajectory is going the right way. However Trequartista’s comment about recent elections/referendum throwing up surprises and not celebrating too soon is certainly valid, and indeed wise given recent results
Your comment that everything in his post was incorrect is categorically wrong
Not everything warrants a full rebuttal btw, but happy to provide one anyway [Post edited 4 Oct 2020 16:13]
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So the evidence put up in defence of the original post turns out to be inaccurate, as far as back that claim, as in 'published polling'. So if you are to try and back T then do provide verifiable evidence. Preferably stuff that backs his claim, not my rebuttal
As that by your thinking I could use polling from the past month or so to prove polling trends in the run up to the next general election were wrong.
No one is talking about celebrating, that is just you trying to slip in emotive language to distract from reasoned and factual evidence (I suspect most on here can work out why that might be) | | | |
| Trump falls further in poll on 16:33 - Oct 4 with 765 views | Trequartista |
| Trump falls further in poll on 16:12 - Oct 4 by HARRY10 |
Whereas the polls show a very definite swing to Labour from when the election was announced. How is it that you cannot see that ?
Or is it, as I suspect, that you originally made a sweeping and inaccurate statement about opinion polls in some desperate attempt to defend Trump, and have simply dug your self deeper - if only by posting up stuff that refutes your claims
The polls in 2017 show a constant and dramatic swing to Labour leading up to the 2017 election... disproving your original claim
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#Opinion_polli |
I haven't denied there was a swing towards Labour anywhere, what i've said is that the polls, in these examples, didn't predict the correct outcome. All the swing towards Labour proves is that all the polling before the final month was of no use whatsoever in predicting the result.
You've not managed to disprove any of my evidence, you've just moved it onto a different point each time. You've also made the mistake in thinking i'm defending Trump which is perhaps clouding your analysis of what i have said. As it happens i know very little about Biden, but would hope that Trump loses whoever he may be up against, but this should be irrelevant to the discussion. | |
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| Trump falls further in poll on 16:34 - Oct 4 with 765 views | lowhouseblue |
10 points at this stage is huge. but it's still scarey. having trump out of action for 10 days and running the clock down in that way is great news - hopefully it also knocks out one of the remaining debates. there is less and less time for banana skins. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Trump falls further in poll on 16:41 - Oct 4 with 749 views | gtsb1966 |
| Trump falls further in poll on 16:34 - Oct 4 by lowhouseblue |
10 points at this stage is huge. but it's still scarey. having trump out of action for 10 days and running the clock down in that way is great news - hopefully it also knocks out one of the remaining debates. there is less and less time for banana skins. |
I would have thought the more debates the better for Biden. |  | | |
| Trump falls further in poll on 16:43 - Oct 4 with 738 views | SpruceMoose |
| Trump falls further in poll on 16:02 - Oct 4 by C_HealyIsAPleasure |
Have you lost it? The discussion isn’t about anything happening on the ground anywhere you plum
That Ipswich comment really hit a nerve eh? |
Calm down. This isn't the Ipswich Star comments you know. I know you're desperate to get one over on me, Lord help you, you keep on trying, but here's not the time or place. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Trump falls further in poll on 16:43 - Oct 4 with 740 views | lowhouseblue |
| Trump falls further in poll on 16:41 - Oct 4 by gtsb1966 |
I would have thought the more debates the better for Biden. |
debates are a bit of a lottery. accidents can happen. when you're 10 points ahead the risk is less attractive. | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Trump falls further in poll on 16:49 - Oct 4 with 727 views | HARRY10 |
| Trump falls further in poll on 16:33 - Oct 4 by Trequartista |
I haven't denied there was a swing towards Labour anywhere, what i've said is that the polls, in these examples, didn't predict the correct outcome. All the swing towards Labour proves is that all the polling before the final month was of no use whatsoever in predicting the result.
You've not managed to disprove any of my evidence, you've just moved it onto a different point each time. You've also made the mistake in thinking i'm defending Trump which is perhaps clouding your analysis of what i have said. As it happens i know very little about Biden, but would hope that Trump loses whoever he may be up against, but this should be irrelevant to the discussion. |
There has been no need on my part to disprove your 'evidence', you have done so yourself.
"All the swing towards Labour proves is that all the polling before the final month was of no use whatsoever in predicting the result. "
That is absurd, even by your standards of confusion.
That polling showed that from being 25 points behind. Labour consistently narrowed the gap to produce a hung Parliament. Which totally refutes you point,
In the referendum, again the polls were closing, and moving towards a Leave win - disproving your claim.
The 2016 US polls never had Clinton leading by more than 3.5%, (and mostly below) something the overall votes as good as matched.
The question here is why you have chosen to represent my posting current US polls as somehow being a 'wrong', or with the other chap celebratory.
Answer that and it will explain why you originally made that misleading claim about previous opinion polls. | | | |
| Trump falls further in poll on 17:01 - Oct 4 with 707 views | Trequartista |
| Trump falls further in poll on 16:49 - Oct 4 by HARRY10 |
There has been no need on my part to disprove your 'evidence', you have done so yourself.
"All the swing towards Labour proves is that all the polling before the final month was of no use whatsoever in predicting the result. "
That is absurd, even by your standards of confusion.
That polling showed that from being 25 points behind. Labour consistently narrowed the gap to produce a hung Parliament. Which totally refutes you point,
In the referendum, again the polls were closing, and moving towards a Leave win - disproving your claim.
The 2016 US polls never had Clinton leading by more than 3.5%, (and mostly below) something the overall votes as good as matched.
The question here is why you have chosen to represent my posting current US polls as somehow being a 'wrong', or with the other chap celebratory.
Answer that and it will explain why you originally made that misleading claim about previous opinion polls. |
The polling before the final month had only massive Conservative leads. They didn't win. Therefore if was of no use in predicting the result. You've just said that's absurd with no reasoning whatsoever. Just saying something is absurd doesn't make it absurd.
You just keep offering up things that are nothing to do with what i've said and then tagging "that refutes your point" on the end. For example Labour narrowing a lead. That has nothing to do with the point i made.
I'm not saying your polls are wrong, they are correct as far as they measure what people are *saying* they are going to do. What they *actually* do is not always the same as i have shown.
The exit polls are usually quite accurate i find, interviewing people after they have voted is much more accurate, which suggests people aren't dishonest with their replies, more that a lot really don't know until the last minute. | |
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| Trump falls further in poll on 17:14 - Oct 4 with 699 views | SpruceMoose |
| Trump falls further in poll on 16:05 - Oct 4 by HARRY10 |
Have any of us actually read anything that remotely suggests a rebuttal from you in any shape or form ?
I would suggest the lack of that tells us all we need to know |
Old Healey is just obsessed with having a pop at me. He's been doing it for years. Never misses a chance. The subject at hand is of no importance. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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