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Trump falls further in poll 13:59 - Oct 4 with 3145 viewsHARRY10

This from the Telegraph - 4 October 2020 - 1:44pm

'Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate in the US election, has extended his lead over Donald Trump in new poll following the President's admission to hospital.

The poll found that 51 per cent were backing Biden, while 41 per cent said they were voting for Trump.

Mr Biden's 10-point edge over the sitting President is 1 to 2 points higher than leads Biden posted over the past several weeks.

Almost two thirds Americans were also found to agree that "if President Trump had taken coronavirus more seriously, he probably would not have been infected."

Only 34 per cent said they thought that Trump has been telling them the truth about the coronavirus, while 55 per cent said that he was not and 11 per cent were unsure.'
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Trump falls further in poll on 17:15 - Oct 4 with 767 viewsRyorry

Trump falls further in poll on 17:01 - Oct 4 by Trequartista

The polling before the final month had only massive Conservative leads. They didn't win. Therefore if was of no use in predicting the result. You've just said that's absurd with no reasoning whatsoever. Just saying something is absurd doesn't make it absurd.

You just keep offering up things that are nothing to do with what i've said and then tagging "that refutes your point" on the end. For example Labour narrowing a lead. That has nothing to do with the point i made.

I'm not saying your polls are wrong, they are correct as far as they measure what people are *saying* they are going to do. What they *actually* do is not always the same as i have shown.

The exit polls are usually quite accurate i find, interviewing people after they have voted is much more accurate, which suggests people aren't dishonest with their replies, more that a lot really don't know until the last minute.


Completely get your point, & I wouldn't have thought there's much mileage in either side spending more time arguing, since clearly the proof of the pudding will be in the eating and one of you will be proved right on 4th Nov! (or soon after)

Poll: Why can't/don't we protest like the French do? 🤔

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Trump falls further in poll on 17:18 - Oct 4 with 772 viewsHARRY10

Trump falls further in poll on 17:14 - Oct 4 by SpruceMoose

Old Healey is just obsessed with having a pop at me. He's been doing it for years. Never misses a chance. The subject at hand is of no importance.


as I gather
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Trump falls further in poll on 17:23 - Oct 4 with 765 viewsFunge

Trump falls further in poll on 17:14 - Oct 4 by SpruceMoose

Old Healey is just obsessed with having a pop at me. He's been doing it for years. Never misses a chance. The subject at hand is of no importance.


This is palpable boll0cks.
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Trump falls further in poll on 17:28 - Oct 4 with 765 viewsTrequartista

Trump falls further in poll on 17:15 - Oct 4 by Ryorry

Completely get your point, & I wouldn't have thought there's much mileage in either side spending more time arguing, since clearly the proof of the pudding will be in the eating and one of you will be proved right on 4th Nov! (or soon after)


Well no it won't prove me wrong because the polls may be right and Biden wins - my argument is not that the polls are always wrong, it is that they are quite often wrong. I realise that puts me in a no-lose situation for this particular election, but i'm talking about over a sustained period of time.

You are right though in that there is no more mileage in the debate, it is there in the open for those who want to read it and decide, or for those who don't want to read it and sling insults at the person they have disagreed with on previous occasions.
[Post edited 4 Oct 2020 17:29]

Poll: Who do you blame for our failure to progress?

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Trump falls further in poll on 17:29 - Oct 4 with 759 viewsHARRY10

Trump falls further in poll on 17:01 - Oct 4 by Trequartista

The polling before the final month had only massive Conservative leads. They didn't win. Therefore if was of no use in predicting the result. You've just said that's absurd with no reasoning whatsoever. Just saying something is absurd doesn't make it absurd.

You just keep offering up things that are nothing to do with what i've said and then tagging "that refutes your point" on the end. For example Labour narrowing a lead. That has nothing to do with the point i made.

I'm not saying your polls are wrong, they are correct as far as they measure what people are *saying* they are going to do. What they *actually* do is not always the same as i have shown.

The exit polls are usually quite accurate i find, interviewing people after they have voted is much more accurate, which suggests people aren't dishonest with their replies, more that a lot really don't know until the last minute.


The polling you keep chuntering on about in 2017 was taken before the election was called. The polling that is relevant is the same as now in the US when there is an election.

The absurdity is that you have shown labour consistently closing the gap to the point where a hung Parliament looked on the cards - then claim "of no use whatsoever in predicting the result. " the polls were about a point out. What part of that can't you grasp ? As with the other polls I mention

Or are you stating that if the polls over the next four weeks show Trump closing the gap to one point behind, then losing the election by a narrow amount those polls were "of no use whatsoever in predicting the result. " !

As stated it is clear you waded in, upset by the facts I was posting up from US polls and so posted up all that was available - a claim that other polls had been wrong. When in fact they were pretty much spot on, as I have shown

But far from it being my job to stop you digging yourself deeper"
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Trump falls further in poll on 17:37 - Oct 4 with 743 viewsRyorry

Trump falls further in poll on 17:28 - Oct 4 by Trequartista

Well no it won't prove me wrong because the polls may be right and Biden wins - my argument is not that the polls are always wrong, it is that they are quite often wrong. I realise that puts me in a no-lose situation for this particular election, but i'm talking about over a sustained period of time.

You are right though in that there is no more mileage in the debate, it is there in the open for those who want to read it and decide, or for those who don't want to read it and sling insults at the person they have disagreed with on previous occasions.
[Post edited 4 Oct 2020 17:29]


I did get that re your first para.

Poll: Why can't/don't we protest like the French do? 🤔

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Trump falls further in poll on 17:39 - Oct 4 with 747 viewsSpruceMoose

Trump falls further in poll on 17:23 - Oct 4 by Funge

This is palpable boll0cks.


Your post? Agreed.

Pronouns: He/Him/His. "Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country."
Poll: Selectamod

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Trump falls further in poll on 17:41 - Oct 4 with 742 viewsTrequartista

Trump falls further in poll on 17:29 - Oct 4 by HARRY10

The polling you keep chuntering on about in 2017 was taken before the election was called. The polling that is relevant is the same as now in the US when there is an election.

The absurdity is that you have shown labour consistently closing the gap to the point where a hung Parliament looked on the cards - then claim "of no use whatsoever in predicting the result. " the polls were about a point out. What part of that can't you grasp ? As with the other polls I mention

Or are you stating that if the polls over the next four weeks show Trump closing the gap to one point behind, then losing the election by a narrow amount those polls were "of no use whatsoever in predicting the result. " !

As stated it is clear you waded in, upset by the facts I was posting up from US polls and so posted up all that was available - a claim that other polls had been wrong. When in fact they were pretty much spot on, as I have shown

But far from it being my job to stop you digging yourself deeper"


No you've not read it, or are changing what i've said. The polling that was of no use whatsoever was the polling *up to the last month*, not the polling where Labour was closing the gap during the last month. Looking back i clearly put "before the last month" and then "before the final month", so i can't see how that has been confused.

So in your scenario given, that means i am stating that if the polls over the next four weeks show Trump closing the gap to one point behind, then losing the election by a narrow amount *all the polling that has been made up to today* is of no use whatsoever in predicting the result.

What you may also not have read is that i am hopeful of a Trump defeat so how that make me upset about polls showing Biden leading is a strange conclusion to make.

Poll: Who do you blame for our failure to progress?

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Trump falls further in poll on 17:43 - Oct 4 with 734 viewssolemio

Trump falls further in poll on 17:15 - Oct 4 by Ryorry

Completely get your point, & I wouldn't have thought there's much mileage in either side spending more time arguing, since clearly the proof of the pudding will be in the eating and one of you will be proved right on 4th Nov! (or soon after)


I have given this an uppie partly because the post is sensible, but mainly for you being almost unique on this board in correctly getting the pudding quote making sense unlike "The proof is in the pudding" used by so many.
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Trump falls further in poll on 17:47 - Oct 4 with 727 viewsHARRY10

Trump falls further in poll on 17:28 - Oct 4 by Trequartista

Well no it won't prove me wrong because the polls may be right and Biden wins - my argument is not that the polls are always wrong, it is that they are quite often wrong. I realise that puts me in a no-lose situation for this particular election, but i'm talking about over a sustained period of time.

You are right though in that there is no more mileage in the debate, it is there in the open for those who want to read it and decide, or for those who don't want to read it and sling insults at the person they have disagreed with on previous occasions.
[Post edited 4 Oct 2020 17:29]


The polls are not 'quite often wrong'

What is more than quite often wrong is your misrepresenting them, as has been shown. That they change is because something causes them to change, or that voters are not certain in how they are going to vote.

Offering up polls taken before the election had been called (2017), then claiming that the polls after showing a massive closing of the gap from 25 points to almost nothing were "of no use whatsoever in predicting the result."[/].... when they actually predicted the result, demonstrates just how far from reality you are on this matter.

Motivated, I would suggest by some upset about the figures I posted.
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Trump falls further in poll on 17:47 - Oct 4 with 725 viewsFunge

Trump falls further in poll on 17:39 - Oct 4 by SpruceMoose

Your post? Agreed.


Oh, burn!

Post less, please.
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Trump falls further in poll on 17:51 - Oct 4 with 710 viewsRyorry

Trump falls further in poll on 17:43 - Oct 4 by solemio

I have given this an uppie partly because the post is sensible, but mainly for you being almost unique on this board in correctly getting the pudding quote making sense unlike "The proof is in the pudding" used by so many.


Haha, thanks, hadn't even noticed others' use of the quote. Yes, wouldn't make much sense without the "eating" part - trying to imagine it without has my brain conjuring images of cannon balls in the guise of over-baked C*****mas puddings hurtling towards the opposing side's arguments

Poll: Why can't/don't we protest like the French do? 🤔

1
Trump falls further in poll on 17:52 - Oct 4 with 712 viewsSpruceMoose

Trump falls further in poll on 17:47 - Oct 4 by Funge

Oh, burn!

Post less, please.


Oh stop your crybabying.

Pronouns: He/Him/His. "Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country."
Poll: Selectamod

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Trump falls further in poll on 17:55 - Oct 4 with 706 viewsTrequartista

Trump falls further in poll on 17:47 - Oct 4 by HARRY10

The polls are not 'quite often wrong'

What is more than quite often wrong is your misrepresenting them, as has been shown. That they change is because something causes them to change, or that voters are not certain in how they are going to vote.

Offering up polls taken before the election had been called (2017), then claiming that the polls after showing a massive closing of the gap from 25 points to almost nothing were "of no use whatsoever in predicting the result."[/].... when they actually predicted the result, demonstrates just how far from reality you are on this matter.

Motivated, I would suggest by some upset about the figures I posted.


Trump falls further in poll by Trequartista 4 Oct 2020 17:41
No you've not read it, or are changing what i've said. The polling that was of no use whatsoever was the polling *up to the last month*, not the polling where Labour was closing the gap during the last month. Looking back i clearly put "before the last month" and then "before the final month", so i can't see how that has been confused.

So in your scenario given, that means i am stating that if the polls over the next four weeks show Trump closing the gap to one point behind, then losing the election by a narrow amount *all the polling that has been made up to today* is of no use whatsoever in predicting the result.

What you may also not have read is that i am hopeful of a Trump defeat so how that make me upset about polls showing Biden leading is a strange conclusion to make.


Poll: Who do you blame for our failure to progress?

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Trump falls further in poll on 18:15 - Oct 4 with 694 viewsjeera

Trump falls further in poll on 17:55 - Oct 4 by Trequartista

Trump falls further in poll by Trequartista 4 Oct 2020 17:41
No you've not read it, or are changing what i've said. The polling that was of no use whatsoever was the polling *up to the last month*, not the polling where Labour was closing the gap during the last month. Looking back i clearly put "before the last month" and then "before the final month", so i can't see how that has been confused.

So in your scenario given, that means i am stating that if the polls over the next four weeks show Trump closing the gap to one point behind, then losing the election by a narrow amount *all the polling that has been made up to today* is of no use whatsoever in predicting the result.

What you may also not have read is that i am hopeful of a Trump defeat so how that make me upset about polls showing Biden leading is a strange conclusion to make.



So to keep this in simple terms for people like me who can't stare at one graph after another whilst posters try to get one over on each other, your point regarding the 2017 polls is that leading up to the election itself, is they changed dramatically from a large lead a month before, to a relatively slim lead on the day?

If I've misunderstood then fine.

But within that month there was a terror incident in the Capital, which pretty much renders all that came before that irrelevant really, in terms of how the public will think and react.

That's not the one to be focussing one as the best example of regular voting patterns surely.

Poll: Xmas dinner: Yorkshires or not?

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Trump falls further in poll on 18:33 - Oct 4 with 678 viewsTrequartista

Trump falls further in poll on 18:15 - Oct 4 by jeera

So to keep this in simple terms for people like me who can't stare at one graph after another whilst posters try to get one over on each other, your point regarding the 2017 polls is that leading up to the election itself, is they changed dramatically from a large lead a month before, to a relatively slim lead on the day?

If I've misunderstood then fine.

But within that month there was a terror incident in the Capital, which pretty much renders all that came before that irrelevant really, in terms of how the public will think and react.

That's not the one to be focussing one as the best example of regular voting patterns surely.


No, not my point but you can be forgiven for thinking that by the amount of obfuscation that has been going on here. My point was regarding several polls of which 2017 was just one example. The point was that the final result was not what the overwhelming majority of polls were predicting (in this example they continually predicted a conservative victory and the result was a hung parliament).

It was that simple really, the aspect of the narrowing poll within the last month was brought in i think to muddy the waters, so i then made the further point that in this example (2017), the polls from before one month before the election bore no relation to the result, which again was misconstrued despite it being quite clearly written.

Poll: Who do you blame for our failure to progress?

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Trump falls further in poll on 18:34 - Oct 4 with 677 viewsHARRY10

Trump falls further in poll on 17:15 - Oct 4 by Ryorry

Completely get your point, & I wouldn't have thought there's much mileage in either side spending more time arguing, since clearly the proof of the pudding will be in the eating and one of you will be proved right on 4th Nov! (or soon after)


The discussion has been that my posting and commenting about current polls, somehow don't factor in the fact that they are only snapshots of how a sample of voters intend to vote. I would have thought that was a given, not something that had to be pointed out, or 'disproved' by misleading claims.

So to clarify. Biden has had a comfortable lead for over four months and is now seeing that lead increase. If he wins, then those polls have shown to have been an accurate pointer to the result. An indication, not a prediction that's all.

If Biden wins it does not make me 'right' either, as I am merely commenting on what the current polls suggest ie probability. Shame others have chosen to project it as otherwise.
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Trump falls further in poll on 18:47 - Oct 4 with 674 viewsElderGrizzly

He could be lucky to make the election night...





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Trump falls further in poll on 19:03 - Oct 4 with 657 viewsAce_High1

Trump falls further in poll on 18:47 - Oct 4 by ElderGrizzly

He could be lucky to make the election night...







Problem is, with someone in his situation, they will throw everything they have at it. So I don't think you can read as much as people think in to it.

A "normal" person would be treated as per the WHO and general medical guidelines.
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Trump falls further in poll on 19:39 - Oct 4 with 643 viewsHARRY10

Trump falls further in poll on 19:03 - Oct 4 by Ace_High1

Problem is, with someone in his situation, they will throw everything they have at it. So I don't think you can read as much as people think in to it.

A "normal" person would be treated as per the WHO and general medical guidelines.


That slight increase in the Biden lead to 10 points, has jumped to 14 points as of Thursday

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/biden-s-national-lead-over-trump

It will be curious to see how the polls, taken after Trumps admitting to having the virus, are
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Trump falls further in poll on 20:24 - Oct 4 with 619 viewsElderGrizzly

Trump falls further in poll on 19:39 - Oct 4 by HARRY10

That slight increase in the Biden lead to 10 points, has jumped to 14 points as of Thursday

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/biden-s-national-lead-over-trump

It will be curious to see how the polls, taken after Trumps admitting to having the virus, are


He appears furious at his own Chief of Staff for telling the truth, whereas his Doctor today admitted lying to keep the President’s spirits up

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Trump falls further in poll on 20:26 - Oct 4 with 617 viewsElderGrizzly

Trump falls further in poll on 19:03 - Oct 4 by Ace_High1

Problem is, with someone in his situation, they will throw everything they have at it. So I don't think you can read as much as people think in to it.

A "normal" person would be treated as per the WHO and general medical guidelines.


Maybe. They’ve gone right to nuclear for Trump

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