| Just noticed, for all the trumpeting of the Cowleys and their new manager bounce 07:57 - May 19 with 4236 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
(that Cook didn't get), they only finished one place and 3 points above us.
Wasn't that much of a bounce then. Or was it followed by a slump, given we had no bounce at all? |  |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Just noticed, for all the trumpeting of the Cowleys and their new manager bounce on 10:04 - May 19 with 685 views | positivity |
| Just noticed, for all the trumpeting of the Cowleys and their new manager bounce on 09:38 - May 19 by itfcjoe |
There is a belief from some that if a manager can't even get you a new manager bounce then you are in trouble....! |
good job we didn't have that belief when burley came in! |  |
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| Just noticed, for all the trumpeting of the Cowleys and their new manager bounce on 10:32 - May 19 with 654 views | Guthrum |
| Just noticed, for all the trumpeting of the Cowleys and their new manager bounce on 09:02 - May 19 by hype313 |
Cheers Dan, what was interesting was this line "On average results improve for the first six games after dismissing a manager, after which, results taper off and return to levels recorded nine games before the sacking"
Which confirms my thoughts, that it is essentially a brief turnaround. |
Tho this bit caught my attention: 'But the data suggests that when results hit rock bottom and teams are under-performing, the return to expected form is inevitable - with or without sacking a manager.'
Given that managers are usually sacked at rock bottom, was the bounce going to happen anyway and is perhaps unrelated to the sacking? |  |
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| Just noticed, for all the trumpeting of the Cowleys and their new manager bounce on 10:44 - May 19 with 643 views | itfcjoe |
| Just noticed, for all the trumpeting of the Cowleys and their new manager bounce on 10:32 - May 19 by Guthrum |
Tho this bit caught my attention: 'But the data suggests that when results hit rock bottom and teams are under-performing, the return to expected form is inevitable - with or without sacking a manager.'
Given that managers are usually sacked at rock bottom, was the bounce going to happen anyway and is perhaps unrelated to the sacking? |
It's the same as Manager of the Month curse - i.e. regression to the mean |  |
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| Just noticed, for all the trumpeting of the Cowleys and their new manager bounce on 12:40 - May 19 with 556 views | BryanPlug |
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| Just noticed, for all the trumpeting of the Cowleys and their new manager bounce on 14:16 - May 19 with 513 views | Pendejo |
| Just noticed, for all the trumpeting of the Cowleys and their new manager bounce on 12:40 - May 19 by BryanPlug |
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Didn't know flies wore raincoats |  |
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| Just noticed, for all the trumpeting of the Cowleys and their new manager bounce on 18:04 - May 19 with 451 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Just noticed, for all the trumpeting of the Cowleys and their new manager bounce on 09:30 - May 19 by Herbivore |
So the key to success is to sack the manager every 6 games? |
I reckon some on this board would be up for that strategy. | |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Just noticed, for all the trumpeting of the Cowleys and their new manager bounce on 18:08 - May 19 with 450 views | BryanPlug |
| Just noticed, for all the trumpeting of the Cowleys and their new manager bounce on 18:04 - May 19 by The_Flashing_Smile |
I reckon some on this board would be up for that strategy. |
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| Just noticed, for all the trumpeting of the Cowleys and their new manager bounce on 18:08 - May 19 with 449 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Just noticed, for all the trumpeting of the Cowleys and their new manager bounce on 09:33 - May 19 by itfcjoe |
The Cowley's came in off the back of 4 points in 8 games and won 4 on the bounce - the fact that they went into last game of season in the driving seat was down to that run they put together - but couldn't get over the line which was a blow for them.
When they came in we were 2 points ahead of them and ended 3 behind |
How many points had we got in the 8 games before Cook arrived? Not much more I wouldn't have thought. We had a slight upturn when Lambert took a backseat but we were dire before that.
Don't get me wrong, like you the Cowleys were my first choice, but despite having a demonstrably better team, and however terrible things have been under Cook, plus players at the end of their contracts, plus the whole takeover thing happening, they didn't do an awful lot better at the end of the day, all things considered. | |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Just noticed, for all the trumpeting of the Cowleys and their new manager bounce on 18:52 - May 19 with 429 views | itfcjoe |
| Just noticed, for all the trumpeting of the Cowleys and their new manager bounce on 18:08 - May 19 by The_Flashing_Smile |
How many points had we got in the 8 games before Cook arrived? Not much more I wouldn't have thought. We had a slight upturn when Lambert took a backseat but we were dire before that.
Don't get me wrong, like you the Cowleys were my first choice, but despite having a demonstrably better team, and however terrible things have been under Cook, plus players at the end of their contracts, plus the whole takeover thing happening, they didn't do an awful lot better at the end of the day, all things considered. |
How are they a demonstrably better team though? You read what their fans are saying about it all and you’d assume they were ITFC ones with what they say....
We had 15 in the 8 before Cook came in, if you take the 3 wins at the end out it’s 9 from 8 | |
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| Just noticed, for all the trumpeting of the Cowleys and their new manager bounce on 23:16 - May 19 with 395 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Just noticed, for all the trumpeting of the Cowleys and their new manager bounce on 18:52 - May 19 by itfcjoe |
How are they a demonstrably better team though? You read what their fans are saying about it all and you’d assume they were ITFC ones with what they say....
We had 15 in the 8 before Cook came in, if you take the 3 wins at the end out it’s 9 from 8 |
Joe - "How are they a demonstrably better team though?"
Churchman - "In the three league games since Dec 19 they’ve beaten us pretty easily."
And in all encounters they've beaten us 4 times in a row.
I love you on Blue Monday, fella, but you're starting to lose your kudos. | |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Just noticed, for all the trumpeting of the Cowleys and their new manager bounce on 23:49 - May 19 with 385 views | stonojnr |
| Just noticed, for all the trumpeting of the Cowleys and their new manager bounce on 08:46 - May 19 by Guthrum |
A bit like the "Manager of the Month Curse", the "New Manager Bounce" may be something based more upon perceptions than reality. Would be interesting to do a statistical analysis to see how much of an effect there really is - and whether it is dependent upon when in the season the change happens, particularly with reference to the January transfer window. |
its been done, I think Daniel Finkelstein wrote an article in the Times about it, statistically there is a bounce thats demonstrable in points gained overall but the upturn doesnt always translate into a sustained performance improvement, I believe was the conclusion and teams can revert back to former bad habits. | | | |
| Just noticed, for all the trumpeting of the Cowleys and their new manager bounce on 08:15 - May 20 with 357 views | itfcjoe |
| Just noticed, for all the trumpeting of the Cowleys and their new manager bounce on 23:16 - May 19 by The_Flashing_Smile |
Joe - "How are they a demonstrably better team though?"
Churchman - "In the three league games since Dec 19 they’ve beaten us pretty easily."
And in all encounters they've beaten us 4 times in a row.
I love you on Blue Monday, fella, but you're starting to lose your kudos. |
Blackpool finished 3rd and have one foot in the PO FInal and we thumped them twice this season - games between sides don't make much difference.
And also "beat us pretty easily" equates to a 3-2 win after extra time when they played a full strength team and we had made 9 changes, and then coming from behind to score a late-ish winner when we had played them off the park for 40 minutes at Fratton. | |
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