| A positive twist on the stats 14:34 - Nov 29 with 8448 views | SomethingBlue |
(Buried a version of this deep in an earlier thread although I was actually one off with one of the figures)
If we carry on our PPG rate since Bolton — 14 games so a reasonable sample size — over the next 26 games we will get 45 more points, meaning we end up on 72. That won't be enough for the play-offs but something between one and two wins on top of that should be, we're looking at 75-78 points for that. Put like this it looks more reasonable to suggest that a pretty small improvement on top of what we are showing now, over a significantly longer run of games, would see us competing in May.
And yes, this is not where any of us wanted to be or thought we'd be ... [Post edited 29 Nov 2021 14:35]
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| A positive twist on the stats on 13:18 - Nov 30 with 480 views | positivity |
| A positive twist on the stats on 13:14 - Nov 30 by Herbivore |
Wigan have signed 17 and lost 17. Sunderland have signed 17 and lost 23. Hardly a world away from us. |
it makes a vast difference on who the 17 are! if we'd have lost 17 levi andohs and signed 17 tete yengis, that would make a minimal difference to our fortunes (and the churn figure).
if we'd lost 17 andre dozzells and signed 17 samy morsys the effect is much greater.
that's why the churn figure is a valuable pointer
(sunderland retained 6 of their top 10 players btw) [Post edited 30 Nov 2021 13:27]
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| A positive twist on the stats on 13:25 - Nov 30 with 468 views | TJS |
I find taking a rolling average from the start of a good run skews the data a bit.
From a more rigid perspective in 10 game spells from the start of the season we are
Games 01-10 = 10 points
Nowhere near good enough but too early to change manager
Significant improvement required.
Games 11-20 = 17 points
Still short of where we need to be but 1.7 PPG is solid top six form over a season so not bad enough to change manager yet.
Games 21-30 = 18 points minimum |  | | |
| A positive twist on the stats on 13:26 - Nov 30 with 464 views | positivity |
| A positive twist on the stats on 13:17 - Nov 30 by Herbivore |
You say it's night and day, I disagree. Richardson hasn't been manager at Wigan for 4 years so that's being rather disingenuous. Trot out as many excuses as you like, mate, they don't wash with me at this point. |
richardson knows the club, knows the players, knows the board, knows the fans. for me it's night and day. (not sure if the coaching stuff are long-standing)
i don't mind if the potential reasons for under-performance are ignored by you, it's always interesting to hear another view | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 13:58 - Nov 30 with 426 views | Herbivore |
| A positive twist on the stats on 13:26 - Nov 30 by positivity |
richardson knows the club, knows the players, knows the board, knows the fans. for me it's night and day. (not sure if the coaching stuff are long-standing)
i don't mind if the potential reasons for under-performance are ignored by you, it's always interesting to hear another view |
Fair dos, although it's worth pointing out that Cook did sign a good few players he's worked with previously who he knows well and who in some cases know each other. Our squad also still has a smattering of players from last year (three of our recent back four have all been here long term) so it's not as though absolutely everything is entirely brand new in terms of our squad. 20 games in it's starting to wear a bit thin. |  |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 14:26 - Nov 30 with 405 views | WilbrahamBlue |
| A positive twist on the stats on 13:25 - Nov 30 by TJS |
I find taking a rolling average from the start of a good run skews the data a bit.
From a more rigid perspective in 10 game spells from the start of the season we are
Games 01-10 = 10 points
Nowhere near good enough but too early to change manager
Significant improvement required.
Games 11-20 = 17 points
Still short of where we need to be but 1.7 PPG is solid top six form over a season so not bad enough to change manager yet.
Games 21-30 = 18 points minimum |
This is interesting, looking at median trends rather than looking at every 1 or 2 games in an enraged manner.
It does show progress. | | | |
| A positive twist on the stats on 16:32 - Nov 30 with 371 views | Sawtrich |
| A positive twist on the stats on 13:25 - Nov 30 by TJS |
I find taking a rolling average from the start of a good run skews the data a bit.
From a more rigid perspective in 10 game spells from the start of the season we are
Games 01-10 = 10 points
Nowhere near good enough but too early to change manager
Significant improvement required.
Games 11-20 = 17 points
Still short of where we need to be but 1.7 PPG is solid top six form over a season so not bad enough to change manager yet.
Games 21-30 = 18 points minimum |
Or;
Games 1-5 3 points
Games 6-10 7 points
Games 11-15 10 points
Games 16-20 7 points
We've won 7 from 20. Of those 7 wins, 5 have been against teams currently in the bottom 7, the other 2 being Wycombe and Portsmouth. We're basically doing what we've done since being relegated to League One, we beat the bad teams and don't do anything like well enough against the better teams. |  | | |
| A positive twist on the stats on 16:33 - Nov 30 with 366 views | Herbivore |
| A positive twist on the stats on 16:32 - Nov 30 by Sawtrich |
Or;
Games 1-5 3 points
Games 6-10 7 points
Games 11-15 10 points
Games 16-20 7 points
We've won 7 from 20. Of those 7 wins, 5 have been against teams currently in the bottom 7, the other 2 being Wycombe and Portsmouth. We're basically doing what we've done since being relegated to League One, we beat the bad teams and don't do anything like well enough against the better teams. |
Only really one of those 5 game blocks is good enough in terms of points haul. It's been a poor old first 20 games, with the odd exception. | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 17:06 - Nov 30 with 339 views | TJS |
| A positive twist on the stats on 16:33 - Nov 30 by Herbivore |
Only really one of those 5 game blocks is good enough in terms of points haul. It's been a poor old first 20 games, with the odd exception. |
Agreed - although 5 game blocks won't ever have equal numbers of home and away games. | | | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 17:22 - Nov 30 with 321 views | Sawtrich |
| A positive twist on the stats on 17:06 - Nov 30 by TJS |
Agreed - although 5 game blocks won't ever have equal numbers of home and away games. |
Yes, sure, I just felt breaking it into quarters better represented how I've felt about this season.
1st: oh dear, what's happening
2nd: this is a bit better but I'm not convinced
3rd: ah, yes, this is more like it
4th: no, something's still not right here | | | |
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