| A positive twist on the stats 14:34 - Nov 29 with 8449 views | SomethingBlue |
(Buried a version of this deep in an earlier thread although I was actually one off with one of the figures)
If we carry on our PPG rate since Bolton — 14 games so a reasonable sample size — over the next 26 games we will get 45 more points, meaning we end up on 72. That won't be enough for the play-offs but something between one and two wins on top of that should be, we're looking at 75-78 points for that. Put like this it looks more reasonable to suggest that a pretty small improvement on top of what we are showing now, over a significantly longer run of games, would see us competing in May.
And yes, this is not where any of us wanted to be or thought we'd be ... [Post edited 29 Nov 2021 14:35]
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| A positive twist on the stats on 00:20 - Nov 30 with 1061 views | pointofblue |
| A positive twist on the stats on 23:12 - Nov 29 by positivity |
what if he wins the last 15 games in a row, then gets knocked out on penalties in the playoff final after 4 players have been sent off in a bizarre refereeing display by a ref inexplicably wearing a yellow and green scarf?
i'd say that's harsh! |
To be fair, Herbivore said, “If we go on a storming run now and comfortably make the top 6 but fall just short of automatic and then lose in the play offs through rank bad luck then there might be a case for Cook to keep his job.” | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 05:24 - Nov 30 with 1008 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| A positive twist on the stats on 21:36 - Nov 29 by hype313 |
Fine, everything's hunky dory, is that better? |
Nobody is saying that.
But there are also some positives too that are conveniently ignored. The fact we have an ownership group who actually seem to care being the first one. That’s a start.
Or we could go with bring the second highest scorers in the league. For years and years we’ve been a team who struggle for goals and have been generally a boring team to watch. At least now we’re scoring goals.
Maybe we could even have a third positive and say that our form has turned around markedly if broken down into two halves. The first half of the season played so far was awful. Points wise we were still near the bottom after those 10 games. The next ten since have shown an improvement. That’s a positive. A bit more improvement on that and we’d make the top 6. Although some will tell you on here that the season is over, it isn’t. It’s November. A slight improvement again in form and we’d be in and around that top six by late January. [Post edited 30 Nov 2021 5:30]
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| A positive twist on the stats on 05:58 - Nov 30 with 985 views | gordon |
Think if you choose a cut-off (after Bolton) that maximises our PPG/form, then it's going to sound a bit better than it actually is. |  | | |
| A positive twist on the stats on 07:35 - Nov 30 with 945 views | Churchman |
| A positive twist on the stats on 21:27 - Nov 29 by The_Romford_Blue |
Out of interest, would you have kept that previous squad then? A squad who had quite clearly downed tools both during the relegation season and last year. Frankly out of principle, no matter who was coming in, I was pleased to see them got rid of for that alone.
The disappointing results since the squad being changed shouldn’t mean the decision itself was wrong. We had a bunch of players who were a part of our worst ever era as a club. The squad, the manager and the owner all had to go for a fresh new beginning at the club. We could’ve finished bottom without a point this year and that still wouldn’t have meant the previous lot didn’t deserve to be sacked for the disgrace that’s been the lost few years at our club. |
Agreed. Last years mob were an insult to the shirt and after they chucked in the towel at Northampton and Wimbledon few on here disagreed. They tried to get him out, just as they did Hurst. Yet people are now revising it and the performance of that woeful bunch and even that of Lambert.
It is a new beginning for the club in just about every way. Whether Cook is part of that long term is in the balance for me. However, while his team has been disappointing it’s a separate issue to last year’s 40+ apology of a squad. I’m also unsettled by the agenda some people have had since he first came here.
We’ve had scrutiny of his coaching staff like never before, criticism of him having a curry with his staff, news about Cook from a bloke who met Chambers in the toilets, any moderate success he might have had previously is down to his assistant. Even a win now is to be greeted with boos and derision or dismissed as irrelevant. It’s actually the start to the season that’s killed us in my view.
We have people at the club now really trying to do something with it for the first time in years. Cook is doing his best, but his efforts to date have surprised and disappointed me. If the owners decide to make a change absolutely fine, but if they take a longer term view, I actually have no problem with that either. The club is growing and the team will get stronger.
Following dismal Duncan, I saw a lot of Lyall’s team. In 90/91 they were pretty poor and finished 11th miles off contention for the play offs. Eyebrows were raised at signings like Steve Whitton, who I thought was a right old donkey. All very disappointing and in front of poor crowds too. How wrong was I? I suppose what I am saying is instant success can be achieved, but sometimes it takes longer. With all the change at the club, maybe it’s the latter. |  | | |
| A positive twist on the stats on 07:43 - Nov 30 with 941 views | DavoIPB |
| A positive twist on the stats on 22:37 - Nov 29 by Ryorry |
Taking Walton's last 8 league games en masse isn't "picking and choosing".
You taking the one rubbish game he had, which was his first league game for us, is picking and choosing. |
Yep. How anyone can say Walton is not the an outstanding keeper I don't know. I would go as far to say he is the best in this league, he has pulled off some great saves and commands his area really well (apart from the goal at Sunderland). We finally have a keeper who looks like he can make a decent save and has great handling. None of the others we have had in recent seasons even come close. | | | |
| A positive twist on the stats on 08:31 - Nov 30 with 926 views | Herbivore |
| A positive twist on the stats on 23:12 - Nov 29 by positivity |
what if he wins the last 15 games in a row, then gets knocked out on penalties in the playoff final after 4 players have been sent off in a bizarre refereeing display by a ref inexplicably wearing a yellow and green scarf?
i'd say that's harsh! |
You clearly aren't reading my posts. I'm starting to think you're just trolling at this point on that basis. |  |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 08:46 - Nov 30 with 900 views | positivity |
| A positive twist on the stats on 23:41 - Nov 29 by jayessess |
2019-20, the teams with the 4th (Rotherham) and 5th (Coventry) most squad churn finished 1st and 2nd, 2020-21 teams with the 1st (Lincoln) and 5th (Blackpool) most unexpectedly made the play-offs, one of them promoted. The team with the 2nd most churn (Gillingham) also surpassed expectations.
Generally, you go down both lists and remove clubs that went bust and there's not much discernible connection between churn and eventual league position. It doesn't take 30 games and 6 months to get 18-20 guys to play football together. |
thanks, that's interesting.
lincoln are the ones that stand out there, the difference of course being that their manager had already had almost a year in post rather than 16 games.
blackpool were at a worse ppg than us this time last year, so i don't think that backs up the case that we should be starting massively quicker than we have
this season you could argue that all of the top 10 clubs with least churn are performing at or above expectations at this stage(maybe with the exception of charlton) whereas 5 of the bottom 6 are underperforming.
be interesting to see if the likes of us, wednesday and portsmouth have a better second half | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 08:49 - Nov 30 with 890 views | positivity |
| A positive twist on the stats on 08:31 - Nov 30 by Herbivore |
You clearly aren't reading my posts. I'm starting to think you're just trolling at this point on that basis. |
no, i'm reading your posts
"I also don't think it'd be harsh for him to lose his job if we scraped 6th place and lost in the play offs."
just pointing out an (admittedly unlikely!) scenario where it would be harsh!
i think we're pretty close on our reading of the circumstances, just differ on degrees of harshness and timing of any sacking | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 08:51 - Nov 30 with 876 views | positivity |
| A positive twist on the stats on 00:20 - Nov 30 by pointofblue |
To be fair, Herbivore said, “If we go on a storming run now and comfortably make the top 6 but fall just short of automatic and then lose in the play offs through rank bad luck then there might be a case for Cook to keep his job.” |
yes, my scenario is replying to his "I also don't think it'd be harsh for him to lose his job if we scraped 6th place and lost in the play offs." statement | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 08:53 - Nov 30 with 875 views | ArnieM |
Well my twopeneth worth is this. Bullet pointed for ease of reading.
The Club as a whole, is in a massively better place than it was under Marcus Evans.
There is real financial backing now, which will become more apparent as the months go by.
This Club needed a complete “ reset”. With that comes different “problems”.
Any manager brought in was going to have a major job on his hands - no matter who they were.
Like it or not “ time” IS a major factor.
We could take a massive amount of pressure off all concerned if we’d only accept we are work-in-progress, and NOT to “ expect” promotion this season.
The owners do not “expect” promotion this season. But ideally ( like us) they’d love it to happen.
Town ARE going in the right direction.
The football by and large has been better.
Town are work-in-progress. Please be patient.
COYBS |  |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 08:53 - Nov 30 with 871 views | Herbivore |
| A positive twist on the stats on 08:49 - Nov 30 by positivity |
no, i'm reading your posts
"I also don't think it'd be harsh for him to lose his job if we scraped 6th place and lost in the play offs."
just pointing out an (admittedly unlikely!) scenario where it would be harsh!
i think we're pretty close on our reading of the circumstances, just differ on degrees of harshness and timing of any sacking |
To win our last 15 games and only scrape 6th would mean us picking up only 3 or 4 points over our next 11 games and hovering on the fringes of the bottom 4. In that scenario Cook would already be toast and the odds of us going from one win in 11 to winning 15 on the bounce under any manager would be a million to one. So perhaps try engaging in some grown up debate rather than coming up with ridiculous scenarios that aren't going to happen. Then I won't think you're just trolling and that you actually want to talk football. | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 08:56 - Nov 30 with 869 views | positivity |
| A positive twist on the stats on 05:58 - Nov 30 by gordon |
Think if you choose a cut-off (after Bolton) that maximises our PPG/form, then it's going to sound a bit better than it actually is. |
i think bolton is seen as a watershed moment, first game after the transfer window shut, but before morsey/celina/walton/edmundson/chaplin were fully fit and available | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 09:00 - Nov 30 with 862 views | positivity |
| A positive twist on the stats on 08:53 - Nov 30 by Herbivore |
To win our last 15 games and only scrape 6th would mean us picking up only 3 or 4 points over our next 11 games and hovering on the fringes of the bottom 4. In that scenario Cook would already be toast and the odds of us going from one win in 11 to winning 15 on the bounce under any manager would be a million to one. So perhaps try engaging in some grown up debate rather than coming up with ridiculous scenarios that aren't going to happen. Then I won't think you're just trolling and that you actually want to talk football. |
my intention's not to troll, though i'm afraid my pedantry will pick up on absolute statements!
if you want some grown-up debate instead of this talk of trolling, then join in on the discussion of churn if you like; that's interesting, real-world and much less emotive and subjective | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 09:02 - Nov 30 with 861 views | Herbivore |
| A positive twist on the stats on 09:00 - Nov 30 by positivity |
my intention's not to troll, though i'm afraid my pedantry will pick up on absolute statements!
if you want some grown-up debate instead of this talk of trolling, then join in on the discussion of churn if you like; that's interesting, real-world and much less emotive and subjective |
That's been covered. High squad churn is common at this level and plenty of sides with high squad churn do well, very few are still using it as an excuse after 20 games. | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 09:50 - Nov 30 with 842 views | ArnieM |
| A positive twist on the stats on 09:02 - Nov 30 by Herbivore |
That's been covered. High squad churn is common at this level and plenty of sides with high squad churn do well, very few are still using it as an excuse after 20 games. |
....do these many clubs also report a complete overhaul of backroom staff as well?
Plus there's a big difference, surely, of a squad shake up of say 50% ( which is huge), to a complete squad overhaul, of 100% and all that entails....
I honestly dont think people appreciate exactly what/s gone on at ITFC or the impact it quite reasonably will have for this season. | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 10:41 - Nov 30 with 816 views | jayessess |
| A positive twist on the stats on 08:46 - Nov 30 by positivity |
thanks, that's interesting.
lincoln are the ones that stand out there, the difference of course being that their manager had already had almost a year in post rather than 16 games.
blackpool were at a worse ppg than us this time last year, so i don't think that backs up the case that we should be starting massively quicker than we have
this season you could argue that all of the top 10 clubs with least churn are performing at or above expectations at this stage(maybe with the exception of charlton) whereas 5 of the bottom 6 are underperforming.
be interesting to see if the likes of us, wednesday and portsmouth have a better second half |
Yeah, might well be the case that squad churn doesn't have much of a noticeable impact on what things look like after 46 games, but does for a certain number of games. Of course, it can't be that many games because it would still be very noticeable at the end of the season!
Blackpool of course are currently mid-table in the Championship, so maybe they were ultimately better than their league finish and it did have a drag effect?
Of the 12 most churned squads this year, I'd say Wigan, Sunderland, MK Dons, Wimbledon (4) are doing well. Portsmouth, Morecambe, Shrewsbury (3) are about where you'd expect, Gillingham, Fleetwood, Wednesday, Doncaster and us (5) are doing badly. Some of the latter group were better in August/September than after that though.
The 12 least churned Rotherham, Oxford, Cheltenham, Wycombe, Plymouth, Cambridge (6) are going well, Bolton, Accrington, Burton OK (3) and Crewe, Lincoln, Charlton (3) badly. [Post edited 30 Nov 2021 10:44]
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| A positive twist on the stats on 11:08 - Nov 30 with 789 views | Ryorry |
| A positive twist on the stats on 08:53 - Nov 30 by Herbivore |
To win our last 15 games and only scrape 6th would mean us picking up only 3 or 4 points over our next 11 games and hovering on the fringes of the bottom 4. In that scenario Cook would already be toast and the odds of us going from one win in 11 to winning 15 on the bounce under any manager would be a million to one. So perhaps try engaging in some grown up debate rather than coming up with ridiculous scenarios that aren't going to happen. Then I won't think you're just trolling and that you actually want to talk football. |
Oh my lord - yes football's a serious business, but we're still all allowed to have a bit of fun & crack jokes from time to time you know! |  |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 11:40 - Nov 30 with 762 views | Herbivore |
| A positive twist on the stats on 09:50 - Nov 30 by ArnieM |
....do these many clubs also report a complete overhaul of backroom staff as well?
Plus there's a big difference, surely, of a squad shake up of say 50% ( which is huge), to a complete squad overhaul, of 100% and all that entails....
I honestly dont think people appreciate exactly what/s gone on at ITFC or the impact it quite reasonably will have for this season. |
It's not 100% though, three of our recent back 4 selection have been at the club for some time and there are other players in and around the first team who aren't new as well. Wigan added pretty much as many players as we did and have been in and around the top 2 all season. There's a lot of rewriting of history now to be honest, before the season virtually nobody was saying this is a transitional season and we shouldn't expect promotion this year. Most acknowledged we likely wouldn't come flying out of the traps straight away but to still be trotting out excuse after excuse when the season is 4 months and 20 games old is a bit much. We should be doing better than we are, full stop. | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 11:43 - Nov 30 with 755 views | Herbivore |
| A positive twist on the stats on 11:08 - Nov 30 by Ryorry |
Oh my lord - yes football's a serious business, but we're still all allowed to have a bit of fun & crack jokes from time to time you know! |
I wasn't talking to you. | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 13:01 - Nov 30 with 726 views | positivity |
| A positive twist on the stats on 09:02 - Nov 30 by Herbivore |
That's been covered. High squad churn is common at this level and plenty of sides with high squad churn do well, very few are still using it as an excuse after 20 games. |
it's not that common at this level, no team in the top 6 is anywhere near us on churn.
it's the kind of thing that a data driven team like ashton's will look at when deciding whether cook is given another season
do you think it's totally without merit that 9 of the 10 with the least churn or achieving to par or over achieving, while the opposite is true for the bottom 6? it's interesting to me! | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 13:07 - Nov 30 with 718 views | positivity |
| A positive twist on the stats on 11:40 - Nov 30 by Herbivore |
It's not 100% though, three of our recent back 4 selection have been at the club for some time and there are other players in and around the first team who aren't new as well. Wigan added pretty much as many players as we did and have been in and around the top 2 all season. There's a lot of rewriting of history now to be honest, before the season virtually nobody was saying this is a transitional season and we shouldn't expect promotion this year. Most acknowledged we likely wouldn't come flying out of the traps straight away but to still be trotting out excuse after excuse when the season is 4 months and 20 games old is a bit much. We should be doing better than we are, full stop. |
our squad retention is 31%, wigan's is 46%, nearly 50% higher, it's incomparable
wigan retained their 4 most-used players (and 7 of the top 10) we retained 1 of the top 6 (and 3 of the top 11)
wigan's manager had been at the club for 4 years, ipswich's for 4 months
it's night and day!
i agree we should be better, but we differ on the extent of the improvement, and on the difficulty of the task | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 13:11 - Nov 30 with 700 views | Ryorry |
| A positive twist on the stats on 11:43 - Nov 30 by Herbivore |
I wasn't talking to you. |
It's a public message board, your comment was not a PM, Positivity's post was addressed to everyone - and it'll be a sad day when humour is no longer acceptable on this site. | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 13:13 - Nov 30 with 695 views | positivity |
| A positive twist on the stats on 10:41 - Nov 30 by jayessess |
Yeah, might well be the case that squad churn doesn't have much of a noticeable impact on what things look like after 46 games, but does for a certain number of games. Of course, it can't be that many games because it would still be very noticeable at the end of the season!
Blackpool of course are currently mid-table in the Championship, so maybe they were ultimately better than their league finish and it did have a drag effect?
Of the 12 most churned squads this year, I'd say Wigan, Sunderland, MK Dons, Wimbledon (4) are doing well. Portsmouth, Morecambe, Shrewsbury (3) are about where you'd expect, Gillingham, Fleetwood, Wednesday, Doncaster and us (5) are doing badly. Some of the latter group were better in August/September than after that though.
The 12 least churned Rotherham, Oxford, Cheltenham, Wycombe, Plymouth, Cambridge (6) are going well, Bolton, Accrington, Burton OK (3) and Crewe, Lincoln, Charlton (3) badly. [Post edited 30 Nov 2021 10:44]
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interesting, i'd be a bit more graded than looking at the top 12 and the bottom 12 as the difference between 12th and 13th is minimal, but 7th bottom to us is huge!
all the 4 you mention as doing well aren't in the top 6, the 3 you mention as doing badly aren't in the top quarter. i'd say it appears to be only a factor at the extremes
i'm hoping that the factor will lessen as the season goes on (it certainly should do!) | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 13:14 - Nov 30 with 695 views | Herbivore |
| A positive twist on the stats on 13:01 - Nov 30 by positivity |
it's not that common at this level, no team in the top 6 is anywhere near us on churn.
it's the kind of thing that a data driven team like ashton's will look at when deciding whether cook is given another season
do you think it's totally without merit that 9 of the 10 with the least churn or achieving to par or over achieving, while the opposite is true for the bottom 6? it's interesting to me! |
Wigan have signed 17 and lost 17. Sunderland have signed 17 and lost 23. Hardly a world away from us. | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 13:17 - Nov 30 with 688 views | Herbivore |
| A positive twist on the stats on 13:07 - Nov 30 by positivity |
our squad retention is 31%, wigan's is 46%, nearly 50% higher, it's incomparable
wigan retained their 4 most-used players (and 7 of the top 10) we retained 1 of the top 6 (and 3 of the top 11)
wigan's manager had been at the club for 4 years, ipswich's for 4 months
it's night and day!
i agree we should be better, but we differ on the extent of the improvement, and on the difficulty of the task |
You say it's night and day, I disagree. Richardson hasn't been manager at Wigan for 4 years so that's being rather disingenuous. Trot out as many excuses as you like, mate, they don't wash with me at this point. | |
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