| A positive twist on the stats 14:34 - Nov 29 with 8451 views | SomethingBlue |
(Buried a version of this deep in an earlier thread although I was actually one off with one of the figures)
If we carry on our PPG rate since Bolton — 14 games so a reasonable sample size — over the next 26 games we will get 45 more points, meaning we end up on 72. That won't be enough for the play-offs but something between one and two wins on top of that should be, we're looking at 75-78 points for that. Put like this it looks more reasonable to suggest that a pretty small improvement on top of what we are showing now, over a significantly longer run of games, would see us competing in May.
And yes, this is not where any of us wanted to be or thought we'd be ... [Post edited 29 Nov 2021 14:35]
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| A positive twist on the stats on 19:28 - Nov 29 with 1646 views | Herbivore |
| A positive twist on the stats on 19:20 - Nov 29 by positivity |
i think we should be higher, but not as high as you seem to think is our right.
just having a higher budget is not as important as having a successful settled squad and a manager who's been at the club a while.
our churn was so much higher than any other club at this level, it's bound to take some time to get us going.
if it was purely down to money, everton would be way above the likes of the hammers and derby would have been promoted half a dozen times! |
Tuchel has been at Chelsea about as long as Cook has been here. Amazing that he's managed to take his side to a Champions League win with someone else's squad and then to the top of the Prem in his first full season. And as for Derby, their league position largely mirrored their budget before it all went tits up.
Nobody expected us to piss the league from day 1 but halfway through the season I don't think it was asking too much for us to be in and around the top 6 and showing the ability to string a decent run together. |  |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 19:33 - Nov 29 with 1624 views | hype313 |
| A positive twist on the stats on 17:56 - Nov 29 by The_Romford_Blue |
Unfortunately I don’t think this is the place for positivity right now. It’s the most negative I’ve ever seen the forum (or from a select few who post more than anyone else perhaps). I’m not entirely sure it’s just Ipswich though - it’s the same with the covid outlook on here pretty much all year. It’s the general outlook unfortunately |
It really isn't Rommer's, I really don't think it's out of the realms to question the season so far, no one is frothing at the mouth with rising blood pressure wanting Cook out either.
Everyone, and I mean everyone who have spoken in depth about the poor start have all stated they desperately want Cook to succeed, myself included.
It really isn't toxic, people have been putting thier thoughts in on both sides, bar a few who just want an argument for arguments sake. |  |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 21:14 - Nov 29 with 1579 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| A positive twist on the stats on 18:41 - Nov 29 by BlueBadger |
What is it you're most enjoying about being a mid-table third division side?
For the third season running. [Post edited 29 Nov 2021 18:47]
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Thankyou for proving my point - even your question is negative.
You could’ve instead phrased it as asking ‘what are you enjoying about the club now having some hope for the future and not being owned by the man who’s spent ten years killing the club?’ |  |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 21:17 - Nov 29 with 1570 views | positivity |
| A positive twist on the stats on 19:28 - Nov 29 by Herbivore |
Tuchel has been at Chelsea about as long as Cook has been here. Amazing that he's managed to take his side to a Champions League win with someone else's squad and then to the top of the Prem in his first full season. And as for Derby, their league position largely mirrored their budget before it all went tits up.
Nobody expected us to piss the league from day 1 but halfway through the season I don't think it was asking too much for us to be in and around the top 6 and showing the ability to string a decent run together. |
tuchel took over an amazing squad who'd finished 4th. he didn't need to make 19 changes!!
i agree with you on where we should be. i thought you were more of the opinion that anything below top 2 is failure? | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 21:19 - Nov 29 with 1562 views | Mullet |
| A positive twist on the stats on 21:17 - Nov 29 by positivity |
tuchel took over an amazing squad who'd finished 4th. he didn't need to make 19 changes!!
i agree with you on where we should be. i thought you were more of the opinion that anything below top 2 is failure? |
He didn't choose to. There's a reason for that. |  |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 21:23 - Nov 29 with 1547 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| A positive twist on the stats on 19:33 - Nov 29 by hype313 |
It really isn't Rommer's, I really don't think it's out of the realms to question the season so far, no one is frothing at the mouth with rising blood pressure wanting Cook out either.
Everyone, and I mean everyone who have spoken in depth about the poor start have all stated they desperately want Cook to succeed, myself included.
It really isn't toxic, people have been putting thier thoughts in on both sides, bar a few who just want an argument for arguments sake. |
Of course it’s not out of the question to criticise the way this season has gone so far. Have a look to some of my posts after the game yesterday, I was far from impressed.
But some on here are so negative that they won’t even recognise the good things this season. A good example was of a particular poster (and I’m not going to name names) would frequently post our ‘no win in 10’ or whatever it was at the start of the season - including the cup games. But then when we went 2 losses in 14 later this season, suddenly the cup games didn’t matter and weren’t included in the same persons stats. Is that not a clear example of being negative? There’s enough sh*t in the world right now without the need for even the positives (some of this season has been very good) to be shut down by so many who don’t want to see it. | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 21:27 - Nov 29 with 1534 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| A positive twist on the stats on 21:19 - Nov 29 by Mullet |
He didn't choose to. There's a reason for that. |
Out of interest, would you have kept that previous squad then? A squad who had quite clearly downed tools both during the relegation season and last year. Frankly out of principle, no matter who was coming in, I was pleased to see them got rid of for that alone.
The disappointing results since the squad being changed shouldn’t mean the decision itself was wrong. We had a bunch of players who were a part of our worst ever era as a club. The squad, the manager and the owner all had to go for a fresh new beginning at the club. We could’ve finished bottom without a point this year and that still wouldn’t have meant the previous lot didn’t deserve to be sacked for the disgrace that’s been the lost few years at our club. | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 21:29 - Nov 29 with 1530 views | Herbivore |
| A positive twist on the stats on 21:17 - Nov 29 by positivity |
tuchel took over an amazing squad who'd finished 4th. he didn't need to make 19 changes!!
i agree with you on where we should be. i thought you were more of the opinion that anything below top 2 is failure? |
Anything less than promotion this season is a failure, imo. We're a way off that looking likely. | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 21:34 - Nov 29 with 1518 views | Ryorry |
| A positive twist on the stats on 21:23 - Nov 29 by The_Romford_Blue |
Of course it’s not out of the question to criticise the way this season has gone so far. Have a look to some of my posts after the game yesterday, I was far from impressed.
But some on here are so negative that they won’t even recognise the good things this season. A good example was of a particular poster (and I’m not going to name names) would frequently post our ‘no win in 10’ or whatever it was at the start of the season - including the cup games. But then when we went 2 losses in 14 later this season, suddenly the cup games didn’t matter and weren’t included in the same persons stats. Is that not a clear example of being negative? There’s enough sh*t in the world right now without the need for even the positives (some of this season has been very good) to be shut down by so many who don’t want to see it. |
I think it's fair to say (which is what you suggested in a previous post?) that some fans feelings about football are maybe not just purely about football these days, but are being subliminally influenced & affected by so much bad stuff going on in the big wide world? |  |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 21:36 - Nov 29 with 1507 views | hype313 |
| A positive twist on the stats on 21:23 - Nov 29 by The_Romford_Blue |
Of course it’s not out of the question to criticise the way this season has gone so far. Have a look to some of my posts after the game yesterday, I was far from impressed.
But some on here are so negative that they won’t even recognise the good things this season. A good example was of a particular poster (and I’m not going to name names) would frequently post our ‘no win in 10’ or whatever it was at the start of the season - including the cup games. But then when we went 2 losses in 14 later this season, suddenly the cup games didn’t matter and weren’t included in the same persons stats. Is that not a clear example of being negative? There’s enough sh*t in the world right now without the need for even the positives (some of this season has been very good) to be shut down by so many who don’t want to see it. |
Fine, everything's hunky dory, is that better? | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 21:46 - Nov 29 with 1501 views | Mullet |
| A positive twist on the stats on 21:27 - Nov 29 by The_Romford_Blue |
Out of interest, would you have kept that previous squad then? A squad who had quite clearly downed tools both during the relegation season and last year. Frankly out of principle, no matter who was coming in, I was pleased to see them got rid of for that alone.
The disappointing results since the squad being changed shouldn’t mean the decision itself was wrong. We had a bunch of players who were a part of our worst ever era as a club. The squad, the manager and the owner all had to go for a fresh new beginning at the club. We could’ve finished bottom without a point this year and that still wouldn’t have meant the previous lot didn’t deserve to be sacked for the disgrace that’s been the lost few years at our club. |
As a minimum
Wilson, Chambers, Toto, JD, Woolfenden, KVY
Bishop, McGavin, Dobra, El Miz
Norwood (although I'm not a fan)
If we could given what we've spent, it'd also include AD. Plus there's a clear argument that some players could also have been retained such as Holy or Cornell, Lankester, Kenlock etc to bridge the 23's/PJT commitments. Or they'd be here such as Nolan.
But given where we are now there's a colour of hindsight to every decision and how many we actually need in each position so we don't end up with Louis Barry and Holy situations. | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 22:15 - Nov 29 with 1469 views | pointofblue |
| A positive twist on the stats on 21:27 - Nov 29 by The_Romford_Blue |
Out of interest, would you have kept that previous squad then? A squad who had quite clearly downed tools both during the relegation season and last year. Frankly out of principle, no matter who was coming in, I was pleased to see them got rid of for that alone.
The disappointing results since the squad being changed shouldn’t mean the decision itself was wrong. We had a bunch of players who were a part of our worst ever era as a club. The squad, the manager and the owner all had to go for a fresh new beginning at the club. We could’ve finished bottom without a point this year and that still wouldn’t have meant the previous lot didn’t deserve to be sacked for the disgrace that’s been the lost few years at our club. |
Apologies as this is going to sound really harsh but, to me, the "players downed tools" comments, not just from yourself but others too, seem to be a brainwash from Cook's words saying as much and little more.
Maybe I believed it to an extent myself but bar flashes of brilliance (Doncaster/Portsmouth/Wycombe) this squad as shown the same weaknesses and issues as the old one did when it's come to the crunch. We still have no idea what to do around the final third and we look far too open when attacked.
That's not to say the changes to the squad aren't welcome and, on paper, we have a much better squad than last year but it's worth noting that, prior to Cook's first game in charge, we were two points off the play offs and had 50 points from 30 games with the players who are widely mocked and criticised on here. In order for us to hit the same mark this season we need to pick up 23 points from 10 games, at an average of 2.3 points per game when 2 ppg is generally, and correctly, seen as championship winning form.
This squad should be possible of doing that but has it shown any consistency in managing it? Nowhere near. Do we seem to be gelling and improving, even incrementally? Nowhere near. Are we learning lessons with similar errors being slowly eradicated? No. Are we seeing tactical tweaks to negate our weaknesses and develop our strengths? Not for me. | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 22:19 - Nov 29 with 1467 views | Vaughan8 |
| A positive twist on the stats on 18:34 - Nov 29 by Ryorry |
The 2-5 v Bolton was his first ever game for us on 11th Sept., our 6th league game of the season. People commented on him seeming nervous on his first appearance for us, which I think is understandable.
That as opposed to his games 13-20 from 19th Oct -28th Nov. In a way you help make my point, as he's obviously dramatically improved since that first game.
Obviously there's room for further improvement again, as with all players - if that comes, it'll obviously increase our chances of making the POs. |
You're proving my point that you're picking and choosing what stats.
I'm proving your point because he has improved from letting in 5 goals? Is this a joke? Haha
We've conceded more than 2 goals in more than half our league games. That was my point.
Letting in over 1 a game is hardly anything to cheer About. Look at the teams near the top and compare. No1 above us is even within 5 of our goals against record. | | | |
| A positive twist on the stats on 22:31 - Nov 29 with 1455 views | positivity |
| A positive twist on the stats on 21:29 - Nov 29 by Herbivore |
Anything less than promotion this season is a failure, imo. We're a way off that looking likely. |
is anything less than promotion sackable? even after the biggest churn in the league?
for a comparison, chelsea's squad retention is 88%, ours is 31%! they held on to 16 of their top 17 players, we had 3 of 11... | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 22:37 - Nov 29 with 1436 views | Ryorry |
| A positive twist on the stats on 22:19 - Nov 29 by Vaughan8 |
You're proving my point that you're picking and choosing what stats.
I'm proving your point because he has improved from letting in 5 goals? Is this a joke? Haha
We've conceded more than 2 goals in more than half our league games. That was my point.
Letting in over 1 a game is hardly anything to cheer About. Look at the teams near the top and compare. No1 above us is even within 5 of our goals against record. |
Taking Walton's last 8 league games en masse isn't "picking and choosing".
You taking the one rubbish game he had, which was his first league game for us, is picking and choosing. | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 22:43 - Nov 29 with 1425 views | positivity |
| A positive twist on the stats on 22:37 - Nov 29 by Ryorry |
Taking Walton's last 8 league games en masse isn't "picking and choosing".
You taking the one rubbish game he had, which was his first league game for us, is picking and choosing. |
especially *that* bolton game, edmundson and walton looked awful on debut, now probably our best 2 players with increased fitness and a run of games.
kvy was substituted after 20-odd minutes for his own protection! | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 22:43 - Nov 29 with 1425 views | jayessess |
| A positive twist on the stats on 22:31 - Nov 29 by positivity |
is anything less than promotion sackable? even after the biggest churn in the league?
for a comparison, chelsea's squad retention is 88%, ours is 31%! they held on to 16 of their top 17 players, we had 3 of 11... |
You go back over the last few seasons of L1 and there's very little discernible link between squad churn and under-achievement. It was mitigating circumstances for a few months, but it certainly isn't now.
If we finish the season very strongly (ie. as one of the best 2 teams in the league over 20 games or so) then I imagine he'll get another go, regardless of whether that's enough for promotion. Anything less than that, then I can't see what value you'd think he was adding and why you'd want to keep him on? |  |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 22:48 - Nov 29 with 1418 views | Herbivore |
| A positive twist on the stats on 22:31 - Nov 29 by positivity |
is anything less than promotion sackable? even after the biggest churn in the league?
for a comparison, chelsea's squad retention is 88%, ours is 31%! they held on to 16 of their top 17 players, we had 3 of 11... |
If we go on a storming run now and comfortably make the top 6 but fall just short of automatic and then lose in the play offs through rank bad luck then there might be a case for Cook to keep his job. Scrape the top 6 and get beaten in the play offs and I don't think that's good enough. | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 22:58 - Nov 29 with 1408 views | positivity |
| A positive twist on the stats on 22:43 - Nov 29 by jayessess |
You go back over the last few seasons of L1 and there's very little discernible link between squad churn and under-achievement. It was mitigating circumstances for a few months, but it certainly isn't now.
If we finish the season very strongly (ie. as one of the best 2 teams in the league over 20 games or so) then I imagine he'll get another go, regardless of whether that's enough for promotion. Anything less than that, then I can't see what value you'd think he was adding and why you'd want to keep him on? |
this season, the top team are clearly
rotherham (69%, all of the top 6 players, 9 of 11)
all the top teams are over c50% more than us, (even wigan who are cited as a team who've changed a lot have kept their top 4 from last season and 7 of the top 10!)
not seen previous seasons, but are there examples of teams with that much churn succeeding early on? | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 23:00 - Nov 29 with 1405 views | pointofblue |
| A positive twist on the stats on 22:48 - Nov 29 by Herbivore |
If we go on a storming run now and comfortably make the top 6 but fall just short of automatic and then lose in the play offs through rank bad luck then there might be a case for Cook to keep his job. Scrape the top 6 and get beaten in the play offs and I don't think that's good enough. |
From where we are now, if we make the top six I think Cook will be given the summer and allowed to start next season. | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 23:01 - Nov 29 with 1404 views | positivity |
| A positive twist on the stats on 22:48 - Nov 29 by Herbivore |
If we go on a storming run now and comfortably make the top 6 but fall just short of automatic and then lose in the play offs through rank bad luck then there might be a case for Cook to keep his job. Scrape the top 6 and get beaten in the play offs and I don't think that's good enough. |
i think that's unnecessarily harsh and that you underestimate the upheaval, but guess we're not that far apart.
i'd say not making playoffs would be failure, and there are only a few scenarios where he'd hang on to his job in those circumstances | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 23:04 - Nov 29 with 1392 views | Herbivore |
| A positive twist on the stats on 23:01 - Nov 29 by positivity |
i think that's unnecessarily harsh and that you underestimate the upheaval, but guess we're not that far apart.
i'd say not making playoffs would be failure, and there are only a few scenarios where he'd hang on to his job in those circumstances |
I don't think there's any circumstances where we miss out on the top 6 and he keeps his job. I also don't think it'd be harsh for him to lose his job if we scraped 6th place and lost in the play offs. | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 23:12 - Nov 29 with 1378 views | positivity |
| A positive twist on the stats on 23:04 - Nov 29 by Herbivore |
I don't think there's any circumstances where we miss out on the top 6 and he keeps his job. I also don't think it'd be harsh for him to lose his job if we scraped 6th place and lost in the play offs. |
what if he wins the last 15 games in a row, then gets knocked out on penalties in the playoff final after 4 players have been sent off in a bizarre refereeing display by a ref inexplicably wearing a yellow and green scarf?
i'd say that's harsh! | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 23:27 - Nov 29 with 1369 views | Ryorry |
| A positive twist on the stats on 23:12 - Nov 29 by positivity |
what if he wins the last 15 games in a row, then gets knocked out on penalties in the playoff final after 4 players have been sent off in a bizarre refereeing display by a ref inexplicably wearing a yellow and green scarf?
i'd say that's harsh! |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 23:41 - Nov 29 with 1352 views | jayessess |
| A positive twist on the stats on 22:58 - Nov 29 by positivity |
this season, the top team are clearly
rotherham (69%, all of the top 6 players, 9 of 11)
all the top teams are over c50% more than us, (even wigan who are cited as a team who've changed a lot have kept their top 4 from last season and 7 of the top 10!)
not seen previous seasons, but are there examples of teams with that much churn succeeding early on? |
2019-20, the teams with the 4th (Rotherham) and 5th (Coventry) most squad churn finished 1st and 2nd, 2020-21 teams with the 1st (Lincoln) and 5th (Blackpool) most unexpectedly made the play-offs, one of them promoted. The team with the 2nd most churn (Gillingham) also surpassed expectations.
Generally, you go down both lists and remove clubs that went bust and there's not much discernible connection between churn and eventual league position. It doesn't take 30 games and 6 months to get 18-20 guys to play football together. | |
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