| Our issues 08:30 - Jan 22 with 3413 views | Herbivore |
It's not that we've been sussed out. It's not that we need to change the system. It's not that we need to sign more players. It is, very simply, that we do not take as many of our good chances as we should and we concede a higher proportion of chances against than we should. We have the lowest xG against in the league and by far the highest xG for. I know xG is far from perfect, but the xG stats suggest we should be pissing the league: https://footballxg.com/xg-league-tables/
The stats back up what we are seeing most weeks. Even yesterday when we were below par, we created enough good chances to win two games, whereas Oxford have scored from two situations where you wouldn't expect a team to score, the first of which was very much down to our lack of defending.
The issue is how to fix it and that's the complicated part. Will a change of system make us more clinical? Will it mean we still manage to create loads of good chances whilst stopping the opposition from scoring on the rare occasion they get near our goal? I'm not convinced. It strikes me that because this has been going on for a while, even when we were winning games to some extent, it's become a chronic issue and a mental block. We are under pressure, much of it self inflicted, and it seems to be causing us to make small errors at both ends that are invariably being punished. It risks killing our season, but I don't see how throwing our toys out of the pram and calling for wholesale changes is going to help matters. It certainly won't do anything to address the actual problems we're facing, imo. [Post edited 22 Jan 2023 8:39]
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| Our issues on 10:44 - Jan 22 with 750 views | HighgateBlue |
Absolutely right. There were howls of derision from many just a few games ago when this point was being made, as we had (at that point) scored the most in the division. If we're going to give away so very many goals per shot conceded, we need to score more of our own shots. If we're going to miss so very many of our own shots, we need to prevent so many of the shots against us going in.
The stats (and particularly in graphical form) are so so stark. We're out on our own when it comes to spurning chances and allowing goals per shot.
As has been said by a few lately, we're pretty in the middle of the park but actually pretty poor at both ends. And that has been the case for some time - even when we were in the top two. We keep the ball well, but you don't get any points for that on its own.
KMac is wedded to his system, and so will live or die by it. At present, that system has us underperforming relative to our budget. He is young, and the squad is (perpetually) still being assembled. He, of course, must be given time. But at present he's being lorded as the next big thing despite underperforming, by the same fan base that villified McCarthy for overperforming. It is indeed a funny old game. |  | | |
| Our issues on 10:52 - Jan 22 with 745 views | DJR |
| Our issues on 10:09 - Jan 22 by Guthrum |
If a player has good techniques drilled into them, then it will increase the chance of actually scoring in that split second when they find themselves with a view of the net. Will also give more confidence in themselves, knowing they have the tools available.
It's a bit like bowlers and batsmen in cricket who are constantly working on their technique, refining, tweaking. Sometimes even completely re-learning, despite already being at international level. For example Mark Wood completely changed his run-up, which reduced the stress on his body while still enabling him to bowl frighteningly quick. |
I think that is true up to a point, but part of the art of scoring is being in the right place at the right time, and I think quite a few players lack that ability. And if you look at, say, Morsy, I think there is something lacking in his shooting technique, which no amount of practice seems to have overcome.
The other thing is that all of our players are able to slot the ball into the net in practice before the game. Much more difficult is doing this in a game situation.
As the French philosopher, Jean-Paul Sartre, put it
"In football everything is complicated by the presence of the opposite team" |  | | |
| Our issues on 11:16 - Jan 22 with 715 views | pointofblue |
| Our issues on 09:34 - Jan 22 by backwaywhen |
For me I thinkWalton is suffering from a lack of confidence with those directly in front of him , he must have kittens watching some of that defending… IMO |
IMO it’s the other way round - especially watching the Plymouth game. |  |
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| Our issues on 11:19 - Jan 22 with 707 views | FoghornGleghorn |
| Our issues on 11:16 - Jan 22 by pointofblue |
IMO it’s the other way round - especially watching the Plymouth game. |
Not really buying that Burgess just stood there gormlessly and let Wildschut amble past him yesterday because he was worried what Walton would do. | | | |
| Our issues on 11:27 - Jan 22 with 691 views | Exiled2Surrey |
| Our issues on 09:46 - Jan 22 by Guthrum |
If you look at the games themselves, there have been a lot of occasions when we've been in an extremely good position, but not managed to get the shot on target (including hits on the woodwork), or failed to really test the 'keeper (no power or straight at him). In addition there have been a number of good saves.
That would seem to back up the xG stats that we are scoring fewer than we should for the chances created. |
I don’t dispute any of that - we are not putting away enough of the bigger chances - but I do think that our massive “statistical” advantage over other sides in the division may be overstated by the type of chances that make up our XG. In reality it is all pretty academic as if we were performing well with the larger xg chances we would not need to worry about this | | | |
| Our issues on 12:34 - Jan 22 with 626 views | TRUE_BLUE123 |
| Our issues on 08:46 - Jan 22 by Guthrum |
Harness is our current Celina. A magician when he's on it, but game-to-game (and even within matches) his form varies quite a lot. |
Harness isn’t on the same level as Celina. I don’t mind Harness at all, but at least with Celina you got a brilliant first touch.
Harness is a finisher, so when he’s not finishing, it’s not ideal. |  |
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| Our issues on 13:04 - Jan 22 with 586 views | Churchman |
| Our issues on 10:10 - Jan 22 by Herbivore |
Waffle, waffle, edgelord comment, waffle. I've not been on here for a while but some things clearly haven't changed. |
He tends to put in an appearance after Norwich have had a good result and we’ve lost.
‘Franchise debt paddlers’ has been reduced to ‘franchise’ but still nobody knows what he’s on about. |  | | |
| Our issues on 15:52 - Jan 22 with 549 views | Kropotkin123 |
xG is nonsense when you watch the game. xG against may be the lowest, but we are mentally weak defensively and therefore don't see out games. You can often see the goal coming. It's happened throughout the season. Moreso after 8 games and most aptly demonstrated against Charlton.
I posted this elsewhere. 5 clean sheets in first 8. 4 clean sheets in subsequent 19. If we want auto, we need to fix this. If we fix this, we are a team that could go unbeaten for the rest of the season / goal on long winning run. I don't see how we turn this around as it doesn't seem to be a single person's fault, it seems more like a group mentality. Maybe Davis putting it the public domain is the start. Fingers crossed. |  |
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| Our issues on 18:23 - Jan 22 with 495 views | Herbivore |
| Our issues on 15:52 - Jan 22 by Kropotkin123 |
xG is nonsense when you watch the game. xG against may be the lowest, but we are mentally weak defensively and therefore don't see out games. You can often see the goal coming. It's happened throughout the season. Moreso after 8 games and most aptly demonstrated against Charlton.
I posted this elsewhere. 5 clean sheets in first 8. 4 clean sheets in subsequent 19. If we want auto, we need to fix this. If we fix this, we are a team that could go unbeaten for the rest of the season / goal on long winning run. I don't see how we turn this around as it doesn't seem to be a single person's fault, it seems more like a group mentality. Maybe Davis putting it the public domain is the start. Fingers crossed. |
xG isn't nonsense though. It doesn't tell the whole story of course, but it's an indicator of how many good chances we concede versus how many good chances we create. You say we can always see an equaliser coming but against Fleetwood and Plymouth - the most recent times we've given up a lead - we weren't exactly under loads of pressure and they scored from speculative efforts from outside the box that took wicked deflections that helped them in. I'm not sure how that is attributable to mental weakness really. Sure, both times there's things you can pick apart that we could have done better but we are conceding from a high proportion of low percentage chances, which is shown by both the stats and, imo, the eye test. | |
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