| So how does this play out? 19:26 - Mar 22 with 2921 views | bluelagos |
If the DUP just refuse to turn up at stormont, what happens next? |  |
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| So how does this play out? on 13:41 - Mar 23 with 760 views | Kievthegreat |
| So how does this play out? on 11:26 - Mar 23 by ArnoldMoorhen |
Yes, Ian Paisley Snr had an excellent reputation as a hard-working constituency MP, and MEP, for members of both communities. He was a man full of contradictions!
Your last line throws up an interesting dilemma for many at the Committed to Hardline Unionist end of the spectrum: would they rather, as Unionists, have "rule" by a Conservative and Unionist Secretary of State for Northern Ireland from London, or by a Sinn Fein First Minister, with a DUP deputy, from Stormont. The answer so far is the former, but softer Unionists, Alliance supporters and Nationalists/Republicans are mighty hacked off with the situation and constitute the majority.
TUV are kind of fulfilling a similar function to Farage re the Conservatives from 2015 onwards: forcing DUP to be hardline for fear of an emigration of votes to the more extreme party.
It all adds up to an increasingly polarised picture, and it could just take one hothead with a gun (or even a knife and a taxi, with the Shankill Butchers legacy) to set in chain events that totally destroy the fragile peace. |
Who is likely to benefit from any potentially disenfranchised DUP voters? Are they likely to go to Alliance or will they just shift to UUP?
One thing that obviously didn't occur last time out, but doesn't seem completely impossible in the future, is a situation where Alliance come second, but don't get to appoint a deputy minister because they aren't part of either unionist or nationalist block. Obviously there are reasons for making sure all blocks share power, but it seems a tad unfair on any party that doesn't align to either block. Does the DUPs antics make this more likely> |  | | |
| So how does this play out? on 14:36 - Mar 23 with 711 views | tractordownsouth |
| So how does this play out? on 13:41 - Mar 23 by Kievthegreat |
Who is likely to benefit from any potentially disenfranchised DUP voters? Are they likely to go to Alliance or will they just shift to UUP?
One thing that obviously didn't occur last time out, but doesn't seem completely impossible in the future, is a situation where Alliance come second, but don't get to appoint a deputy minister because they aren't part of either unionist or nationalist block. Obviously there are reasons for making sure all blocks share power, but it seems a tad unfair on any party that doesn't align to either block. Does the DUPs antics make this more likely> |
The TUV doubled their vote share last time without winning any extra seats, so they could pick up more of the hardliners. |  |
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| So how does this play out? on 18:17 - Mar 23 with 631 views | GlasgowBlue |
| So how does this play out? on 05:09 - Mar 23 by Ryorry |
Very informative, thanks.
Am now wondering what your old username was! |
FeelingBlue? |  |
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| So how does this play out? on 00:10 - Mar 24 with 591 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| So how does this play out? on 18:17 - Mar 23 by GlasgowBlue |
FeelingBlue? |
Nope. |  | | |
| So how does this play out? on 00:14 - Mar 24 with 591 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| So how does this play out? on 14:36 - Mar 23 by tractordownsouth |
The TUV doubled their vote share last time without winning any extra seats, so they could pick up more of the hardliners. |
It's possible, but then it is also possible that disaffection could lead to people opting out of the democratic process and turn to the paramilitaries. | | | |
| So how does this play out? on 07:36 - Mar 24 with 530 views | DJR |
| So how does this play out? on 13:41 - Mar 23 by Kievthegreat |
Who is likely to benefit from any potentially disenfranchised DUP voters? Are they likely to go to Alliance or will they just shift to UUP?
One thing that obviously didn't occur last time out, but doesn't seem completely impossible in the future, is a situation where Alliance come second, but don't get to appoint a deputy minister because they aren't part of either unionist or nationalist block. Obviously there are reasons for making sure all blocks share power, but it seems a tad unfair on any party that doesn't align to either block. Does the DUPs antics make this more likely> |
According to section 16 of the Northern Ireland Act 1998, if the Alliance Party were the second largest party, they would be able to appoint the deputy First Minister.
The assumption, of course, is that the second largest party will always be either nationalist or unionist, and probably in practice it is never likely that the Alliance Party will garner enough support to be the second party (my understanding being that its supporters are fairly middle class), unless the unionist vote were split dramatically. [Post edited 24 Mar 2023 7:38]
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| So how does this play out? on 08:44 - Mar 24 with 492 views | GlasgowBlue |
| So how does this play out? on 00:10 - Mar 24 by ArnoldMoorhen |
Nope. |
Well don’t leave us hanging man*.
*Other genders are available. | |
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| So how does this play out? on 10:10 - Mar 24 with 441 views | leitrimblue |
| So how does this play out? on 08:44 - Mar 24 by GlasgowBlue |
Well don’t leave us hanging man*.
*Other genders are available. |
I like to imagine it's Taxi man and he's had a couple of years of hard reflection and done a lotta lotta reading since he's been away |  | | |
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| So how does this play out? on 10:18 - Mar 24 with 422 views | Keno |
| So how does this play out? on 00:10 - Mar 24 by ArnoldMoorhen |
Nope. |
Bully?????
we would need evidence obviously |  |
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| So how does this play out? on 10:20 - Mar 24 with 410 views | leitrimblue |
| So how does this play out? on 10:18 - Mar 24 by Keno |
Bully?????
we would need evidence obviously |
The clue is in a post he did a few days ago that ended with the word coffee? | | | |
| So how does this play out? on 10:47 - Mar 24 with 385 views | bluelagos |
| So how does this play out? on 10:18 - Mar 24 by Keno |
Bully?????
we would need evidence obviously |
No chance
AM outed himself as a late onset Republican - Bully was very much a man of the establishment. | |
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| So how does this play out? on 17:22 - Mar 28 with 260 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| So how does this play out? on 10:18 - Mar 24 by Keno |
Bully?????
we would need evidence obviously |
Fck right off!
Bully is a Tory.
I subscribe to the Ian Banks theory on Tories. | | | |
| So how does this play out? on 17:32 - Mar 28 with 247 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| So how does this play out? on 11:26 - Mar 23 by ArnoldMoorhen |
Yes, Ian Paisley Snr had an excellent reputation as a hard-working constituency MP, and MEP, for members of both communities. He was a man full of contradictions!
Your last line throws up an interesting dilemma for many at the Committed to Hardline Unionist end of the spectrum: would they rather, as Unionists, have "rule" by a Conservative and Unionist Secretary of State for Northern Ireland from London, or by a Sinn Fein First Minister, with a DUP deputy, from Stormont. The answer so far is the former, but softer Unionists, Alliance supporters and Nationalists/Republicans are mighty hacked off with the situation and constitute the majority.
TUV are kind of fulfilling a similar function to Farage re the Conservatives from 2015 onwards: forcing DUP to be hardline for fear of an emigration of votes to the more extreme party.
It all adds up to an increasingly polarised picture, and it could just take one hothead with a gun (or even a knife and a taxi, with the Shankill Butchers legacy) to set in chain events that totally destroy the fragile peace. |
Anyway, I came back to the thread to add this update:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/mar/28/northern-ireland-terrorism-threa
As I said above, the most likely outcome, should Stormont continue to be suspended, is that violence will return.
I predicted that would be the consequence of Brexit.
Giving over the fragile and beautifully constructed Northern Ireland Peace Process into the stewardship of the Brexit Tories is like giving a Faberge egg to teenage Johnson and Rees-Mogg in the playground, and being shocked when they play the Eton Wall Game with it. | | | |
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