| Supercomputer predicts... on 15:20 - Mar 26 with 1564 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
When does it update? Today's result is going to make a big difference I would assume. |  |
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| Supercomputer predicts... on 15:25 - Mar 26 with 1496 views | SlippinJimmyJuan |
| Supercomputer predicts... on 15:20 - Mar 26 by Nthsuffolkblue |
When does it update? Today's result is going to make a big difference I would assume. |
It updates almost immediately after the results are in, there's a date toggle down the bottom. Wednesday lost about 10% on promotion and 20% on winning the league. We gained 3% and 5%. |  |
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| Supercomputer predicts... on 15:51 - Mar 26 with 1357 views | DJR |
A couple of weeks ago, it said that Wednesdy had a 97% chance of promotion and an 81% chance of winning the league, which I thought was far too generous (if that is the right word). At the same time, it said Plymouth, Barnsley and our chances winning the league varied between 7% and 3%.
Even now, it is showing them with an 81% chance of promotion which, given it is really now a four horse race, seems far to generous.
And today, it gives Stanley an 85% chance of relegation, even though they are only two points off Oxford.
All in all, I am not sure how reliable its predictions really are, given any team can suffer a drop or rise in form. |  | | |
| Supercomputer predicts... on 15:53 - Mar 26 with 1337 views | GeoffSentence |
| Supercomputer predicts... on 15:25 - Mar 26 by SlippinJimmyJuan |
It updates almost immediately after the results are in, there's a date toggle down the bottom. Wednesday lost about 10% on promotion and 20% on winning the league. We gained 3% and 5%. |
Even with 'today' selected it has an update time of 09:52, so before today's result. |  |
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| Supercomputer predicts... on 15:54 - Mar 26 with 1332 views | J2BLUE |
| Supercomputer predicts... on 15:51 - Mar 26 by DJR |
A couple of weeks ago, it said that Wednesdy had a 97% chance of promotion and an 81% chance of winning the league, which I thought was far too generous (if that is the right word). At the same time, it said Plymouth, Barnsley and our chances winning the league varied between 7% and 3%.
Even now, it is showing them with an 81% chance of promotion which, given it is really now a four horse race, seems far to generous.
And today, it gives Stanley an 85% chance of relegation, even though they are only two points off Oxford.
All in all, I am not sure how reliable its predictions really are, given any team can suffer a drop or rise in form. |
Not sure what the point is of a super computer which updates after each result. If it predicted anything at the start of the season I would be impressed but always reacting to te latest result doesn't seem very super at all. |  |
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| Supercomputer predicts... on 15:58 - Mar 26 with 1296 views | Ryorry |
| Supercomputer predicts... on 15:25 - Mar 26 by SlippinJimmyJuan |
It updates almost immediately after the results are in, there's a date toggle down the bottom. Wednesday lost about 10% on promotion and 20% on winning the league. We gained 3% and 5%. |
Hasn't yet updated; still showing position as at 09.52 this morning. |  |
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| Supercomputer predicts... on 16:01 - Mar 26 with 1270 views | JohnTy |
| Supercomputer predicts... on 15:53 - Mar 26 by GeoffSentence |
Even with 'today' selected it has an update time of 09:52, so before today's result. |
I assume it was 9.52 EST (New York) - so after the match. |  | | |
| Supercomputer predicts... on 16:03 - Mar 26 with 1250 views | jayessess |
| Supercomputer predicts... on 15:54 - Mar 26 by J2BLUE |
Not sure what the point is of a super computer which updates after each result. If it predicted anything at the start of the season I would be impressed but always reacting to te latest result doesn't seem very super at all. |
It's presumably just a regular computer running an algorithm. Not a great algorithm if it's knocked wildly off course in the space of a handful of games, it has to be said. |  |
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| Supercomputer predicts... on 16:09 - Mar 26 with 1204 views | GeoffSentence |
| Supercomputer predicts... on 16:01 - Mar 26 by JohnTy |
I assume it was 9.52 EST (New York) - so after the match. |
That would make sense. | |
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| Supercomputer predicts... on 16:12 - Mar 26 with 1186 views | Ryorry |
| Supercomputer predicts... on 16:01 - Mar 26 by JohnTy |
I assume it was 9.52 EST (New York) - so after the match. |
Ah, cheers 👠| |
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| Supercomputer predicts... on 16:27 - Mar 26 with 1113 views | DJR |
| Supercomputer predicts... on 16:03 - Mar 26 by jayessess |
It's presumably just a regular computer running an algorithm. Not a great algorithm if it's knocked wildly off course in the space of a handful of games, it has to be said. |
Interesting to see Nate Silver, the statistician, is behind it.
The following from Wikipedia suggests we shouldn't put too much reliance on anything it predicts.
"In the week leading up to the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the FiveThirtyEight team predicted that Hillary Clinton had a 64.5% chance of winning the election. Their final prediction on November 8, 2016, gave Clinton a 71% chance to win the 2016 United States presidential election, while other major forecasters had predicted Clinton to win with at least an 85% to 99% probability."
Perhaps the only thing you could say in its favour is that it was not as bad as some of the other forecasters.
And when it comes to its the soccer predictions, perhaps the following explanation on it website reinforces the (perhaps unfair) stereotype that Americans don't really get football.
"Soccer is a tricky sport to model because there are so few goals scored in each match." [Post edited 26 Mar 2023 16:30]
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