| How many points needed for top 2? 09:42 - Apr 15 with 2546 views | realprojection |
This is an update from my model (20k simulations, team ratings based on goals and shots for and against). 2 wins gives a 92% chance of promotion. A win and a draw is 56%. Town are in an amazing position.
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| More points than thirds and below, generally. (n/t) on 09:54 - Apr 15 with 2462 views | BlueBadger |
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| How many points needed for top 2? on 10:06 - Apr 15 with 2377 views | Pinewoodblue |
Intrigued, two most likely outcomes involve losing a game, which one? |  |
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| How many points needed for top 2? on 10:11 - Apr 15 with 2343 views | tractorboy1978 |
I am amazed that 3 more points gives a 40% chance. |  | | |
| How many points needed for top 2? on 16:04 - Apr 15 with 2036 views | DinDjarin |
Boro and QPR more than capable of taking a point from Leeds. |  | | |
| How many points needed for top 2? on 16:24 - Apr 15 with 1949 views | Freddies_Ears |
| How many points needed for top 2? on 16:04 - Apr 15 by DinDjarin |
Boro and QPR more than capable of taking a point from Leeds. |
And Southampton still have to play away at Leicester & Leeds. Once / If Southampton even draw one game, 2 wins puts us above them. If Leeds draw 1 game, 2 wins puts us above them.
Leicester need to lose 2 out of 4 for 2 wins to put us above them. But even that isn't inconceivable.
For us to need 3 wins, chances are one of Leeds and Southampton needs to win every game. I do not expect that... | | | |
| How many points needed for top 2? on 17:11 - Apr 15 with 1818 views | _clive_baker_ |
My prediction is as follows:
98 points - Top 2
97 points - Not possible
96 points - Top 2
95 points - Top 2
94 points - 3rd on GD
93 points - 3rd
92 points - 3rd
91 points - 4th
90 points - 4th
89 points - 4th |  | | |
| How many points needed for top 2? on 17:13 - Apr 15 with 1811 views | TheBoyBlue |
After the last few games I have no idea. We may need to win all three. At the rate its going we may even lose all three games and still go up. And countless permutations in between.
So in answer to your question, I have no idea, just that it'll need to be at least one more point than third place. | |
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| How many points needed for top 2? on 17:33 - Apr 15 with 1759 views | Vegtablue |
| How many points needed for top 2? on 10:06 - Apr 15 by Pinewoodblue |
Intrigued, two most likely outcomes involve losing a game, which one? |
Factually, so far we've lost the majority of our away games against teams in the top half of the table (what a time it will be to overturn this). Also interested and my guess would be Coventry: they're +10 in shots and +14 in goals, compared to Hull's +7 and +8. If we change the input to home performance it would stay Coventry, as they've taken one more point than Hull in two fewer games. | | | |
| How many points needed for top 2? on 17:37 - Apr 15 with 1730 views | J2BLUE |
Not sure I believe that 40% |  |
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