| Targets 07:32 - May 20 with 8744 views | Kropotkin123 |
I'm here to save you from the endless KM rumours!
Ipswich come into the 2024-25 Premiership season with two consecutive 2nd place finishes. Town will be seeking to replicate this and may deem anything less than second as a failure. So too will Arsenal, who themselves have finished second two seasons in a row. One thing is for certain, next season, at least one of these teams won’t finish second.
Since the top tier moved to 20 teams 86 teams have been promoted. You may speculate that this is bad maths. But in the 1994-95 season only two clubs were promoted. Reading finished second and missed out to Bolton in the Play-offs. Don’t feel too sorry for them though, in 2005-06, Reading got promoted with a record points total (106) and never looked back.
The most impressive performance by a promoted team was a team you may have heard of - Ipswich. Written off by everyone following their play-off success, Ipswich amassed 66 points, finishing 5th and qualifying for Europe. Town are the only promoted team to win more than half their games and have the highest goal difference. If they can’t finish second, Town may have to settle for European qualification.
At the other end of the talent pool we find the worst teams of the modern era. Of course, Norwich are so bad we see them twice. Ipswich will be wanting to chalk those totals off by Christmas, if we want to put ourselves in a good position to stay up. If we have a tough season, we will still want to better 11 and 22 points.
At the very least we want to be targeting 17th place. Survival. So we can give ourselves the opportunity to consolidate our position in the league and build. There has been a 12 point range for the teams finishing in 17th (44-32 points). Though this past season we had the lowest total, in part, due to a points deduction. Without that Forest would have finished on 36, the modal average, reducing the range to 10 points (44-34 points). One could argue to stay up we would replace one of the bottom three and need to better this tally.
Another way of looking at it is we would need to beat the teams in the bottom three. Or, beat the team in 18th place. This season produced the lowest points total for 18th place. Luton were only four points above Norwich’s -61 GD season (26 and 22 respectively). Two thirds of teams are finishing 18th with 33 to 36 points. So you have to count yourself unlucky if you are finishing 18th with 37 or more points. West Ham getting relegated on 42 points can feel particularly hard done by. They would have survived on any other season with that tally and GD.
From these charts we can argue a few things. 76% of the time, you will finish ahead of the team in 18th with 38 points. If Ipswich get 45 points, it would take a record breaking season for Town to get relegated. If you are planning to survive, this is the number you should target at the beginning of the season, so it is not in the hands of chance.
Of the teams that got relegated, the best GD ever was Middlesbrough on -9. This was in the 1996-97 season when they were relegated with 39 points. The reality of finishing so low is you will see more goals go against you than you do for you. Even in Ipswich’s phenomenal season, Town had a GD of 15. Only 7 promoted teams from 86 have recorded a positive GD in their first season.
It’s even rarer for a team to record >50 goals and still get relegated. So targeting 50 goals would be a reasonable ambition. Though, word of warning, Luton and Leicester have scored >50 in successive seasons and both have been relegated! If we are to score >50 goals, let’s not be the ones to make it 3 in a row. Seeing Luton with such a low points tally and a good goal difference is surprising.
No relegated team has conceded less than 50 goals. This makes more than 50 goals scored and less than 50 goals conceded a pretty natural target to aim for.
So here we have it. I’ll be tracking how we get on against previous seasons in some sort of half-arsed manner. The spreadsheets are loaded up, working automatically. It is just about how regularly I get on to post them. If you want access to the spreadsheets themselves, let me know in a private message. It is currently showing the Championship, as it is pulling from the TWTD table, so when that updates, we should be golden.
Black Line = Derby’s 11 point season
Green Line = Norwich’s 22 point season
Red Line = 45 point safety line
Blue Line = Ipswich’s 66 point season
Black Line = Derby’s 20 GF
Green Line = Norwich’s 23 GF
Red Line = 50 GF target
Blue Line = Ipswich’s 57 GF
Black Line = Sheff Utd 104 GA
Green Line = Norwich’s 84 GA
Red Line = 50 GA target
Blue Line = Ipswich’s 42 GA
[Post edited 20 May 2024 7:39]
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| Submit your 1-24 league prediction here -https://www.twtd.co.uk/forum/514096/page:1 - for the opportunity to get a free Ipswich top. | | Poll: | Would you rather | | Blog: | Round Four: Eagle |
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| Targets on 20:06 - Aug 25 with 8022 views | Kropotkin123 |
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| Submit your 1-24 league prediction here -https://www.twtd.co.uk/forum/514096/page:1 - for the opportunity to get a free Ipswich top. | | Poll: | Would you rather | | Blog: | Round Four: Eagle |
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| Targets on 21:16 - Aug 25 with 7675 views | Help |
Please post it regularly I for one will be a regular viewer |  |
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| Targets on 23:15 - Aug 25 with 7251 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Targets on 21:16 - Aug 25 by Help |
Please post it regularly I for one will be a regular viewer |
Alright, I'll try and do it regularly, when I update the 1-20 table. | |
| Submit your 1-24 league prediction here -https://www.twtd.co.uk/forum/514096/page:1 - for the opportunity to get a free Ipswich top. | | Poll: | Would you rather | | Blog: | Round Four: Eagle |
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| Targets on 04:02 - Sep 17 with 5443 views | Kropotkin123 |
Man City pass Derby's record low points score, so their blushes are saved for another season.
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| Submit your 1-24 league prediction here -https://www.twtd.co.uk/forum/514096/page:1 - for the opportunity to get a free Ipswich top. | | Poll: | Would you rather | | Blog: | Round Four: Eagle |
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| Targets on 04:44 - Sep 17 with 5381 views | hoppy |
| Targets on 04:02 - Sep 17 by Kropotkin123 |
Man City pass Derby's record low points score, so their blushes are saved for another season.
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…until the points deductions… |  |
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| Targets on 11:07 - Sep 17 with 4808 views | ElephantintheRoom |
I admire your starting like abilities. Two things you seem to have missed. Is it worth the joy of coming 17th? I have it fixed in my mind that the escapees often plunge down the following year.
And presumably Ipswich hold the record for plunging to relegation from dizzy heights? |  |
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| Targets on 11:35 - Sep 17 with 4746 views | Cafe_Newman |
| Targets on 11:07 - Sep 17 by ElephantintheRoom |
I admire your starting like abilities. Two things you seem to have missed. Is it worth the joy of coming 17th? I have it fixed in my mind that the escapees often plunge down the following year.
And presumably Ipswich hold the record for plunging to relegation from dizzy heights? |
The home fixture against Southampton on February 1st will be a defining moment in our season. Town will go on a run from being possible relegation candidates to mid-table security. |  | | |
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| Targets on 20:05 - Sep 27 with 4047 views | Kropotkin123 |
I changed things around a little. I've added the points cap for each team so we can see what is no longer possible. I've also added a couple of new lines
From left to right:
black line - Derby's worst performance record
green - Norwich's terrible preformance
maroon - No team has been relegated getting this many points
dark blue - Ipswich's record for a promoted team
sky blue - Man City's record
So the red blocks on the right demonstrate Southampton, Everton, and Wolves can no longer beat Man City's record!
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| Submit your 1-24 league prediction here -https://www.twtd.co.uk/forum/514096/page:1 - for the opportunity to get a free Ipswich top. | | Poll: | Would you rather | | Blog: | Round Four: Eagle |
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| Targets on 16:21 - Oct 2 with 3490 views | Kropotkin123 |
Gameweek 6 and we can no longer break the EPL points record. Sad times.
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| Submit your 1-24 league prediction here -https://www.twtd.co.uk/forum/514096/page:1 - for the opportunity to get a free Ipswich top. | | Poll: | Would you rather | | Blog: | Round Four: Eagle |
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| Targets on 17:44 - Oct 2 with 3266 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Targets on 16:21 - Oct 2 by Kropotkin123 |
Gameweek 6 and we can no longer break the EPL points record. Sad times.
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Boo, McKenna out!
Although, on reflection, I suppose beating our own promoted team record should be enough. |  |
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| Targets on 00:20 - Jan 3 with 2424 views | Kropotkin123 |
Halfway stage
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| Submit your 1-24 league prediction here -https://www.twtd.co.uk/forum/514096/page:1 - for the opportunity to get a free Ipswich top. | | Poll: | Would you rather | | Blog: | Round Four: Eagle |
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| Targets on 11:18 - Jan 3 with 1589 views | Charlie_pl_baxter |
Nice work. What do we think is a more realistic safety line this season though? I reckon not much more than 35 points. |  |
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| Targets on 11:27 - Jan 3 with 1459 views | NedPlimpton |
| Targets on 11:18 - Jan 3 by Charlie_pl_baxter |
Nice work. What do we think is a more realistic safety line this season though? I reckon not much more than 35 points. |
It's really hard to judge isn't it. Unfortunately at the moment the bottom 3 this season are looking very similar on points to last year's bottom 3. Whilst the likes of Wolves, Palace and Everton have started to pick up a few more points than their early season form suggested. We're really relying on one of them to have a rubbish 2nd half of the season otherwise it could be getting towards 40 points for survival |  | | |
| Targets on 13:56 - Jan 3 with 1016 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Targets on 11:18 - Jan 3 by Charlie_pl_baxter |
Nice work. What do we think is a more realistic safety line this season though? I reckon not much more than 35 points. |
I can't see it being more than double 17th +6. Are the bottom teams likely to improve more than that as a collective, probably not. That would be 38 points for safety | |
| Submit your 1-24 league prediction here -https://www.twtd.co.uk/forum/514096/page:1 - for the opportunity to get a free Ipswich top. | | Poll: | Would you rather | | Blog: | Round Four: Eagle |
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