| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) 14:04 - Jun 17 with 6606 views | GeoffSentence |
Pretty much a three way tie at the moment with Reform slightly ahead of Labour and Conservatives.
Struggling to imagine what things will be like with a Reform MP |  |
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| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 14:12 - Jun 17 with 6192 views | NthQldITFC |
Where are you looking at that? I'm looking at Labour slightly ahead of T*ries with Ref*rm at about 1/3 of either.
I'm in that seat and I'm considering voting Labour (rather than my usual Green) to make sure we get rid of the bonehead Cartlidge.
I'm not sure what to make of polls at the moment. I know the Greens are feeling fairly bullish about Waveney, but the MRP-driven polls aren't reflecting that. |  |
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| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 14:19 - Jun 17 with 6133 views | GeoffSentence |
| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 14:12 - Jun 17 by NthQldITFC |
Where are you looking at that? I'm looking at Labour slightly ahead of T*ries with Ref*rm at about 1/3 of either.
I'm in that seat and I'm considering voting Labour (rather than my usual Green) to make sure we get rid of the bonehead Cartlidge.
I'm not sure what to make of polls at the moment. I know the Greens are feeling fairly bullish about Waveney, but the MRP-driven polls aren't reflecting that. |
https://www.getvoting.org/constituency/E14001494
It's based on the latest Survation MRP polling | |
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| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 14:22 - Jun 17 with 6109 views | Dubtractor |
"Struggling to imagine what things will be like with a Reform MP"
Terrible. It will be terrible. |  |
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| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 14:22 - Jun 17 with 6109 views | GeoffSentence |
| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 14:12 - Jun 17 by NthQldITFC |
Where are you looking at that? I'm looking at Labour slightly ahead of T*ries with Ref*rm at about 1/3 of either.
I'm in that seat and I'm considering voting Labour (rather than my usual Green) to make sure we get rid of the bonehead Cartlidge.
I'm not sure what to make of polls at the moment. I know the Greens are feeling fairly bullish about Waveney, but the MRP-driven polls aren't reflecting that. |
To have any chance of getting rid of Cartlidge it has to be a vote for Labour ( or Reform for those who are right wing inclined) , Lib Dems or Greens could let him back in or even Reform | |
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| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 14:23 - Jun 17 with 6089 views | GeoffSentence |
| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 14:22 - Jun 17 by Dubtractor |
"Struggling to imagine what things will be like with a Reform MP"
Terrible. It will be terrible. |
Thinking it may be like having Tom Hunt on steroids. | |
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| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 14:25 - Jun 17 with 6068 views | NthQldITFC |
Ta. As you say, Blimey! | |
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| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 14:43 - Jun 17 with 6006 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 14:25 - Jun 17 by NthQldITFC |
Ta. As you say, Blimey! |
This one looks better
Implied MP at 2019: James Cartlidge (CON)*
County/Area: Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 72,700
Implied Turnout 2019: 70.2%
Predicted Turnout: 63.9%
Party. Vote 19. %19. Predicted % 2024
CON 31,432 61.6% 35.6%
LAB 10,026 19.6% 37.3%
LIB 6,499 12.7% 9.0%
Green3,074 6.0% 6.4%
Reform 0 0.0% 11.8%
* some boundary changes since 2019
Suffolk Coastal is predicted to be retained but only by a handful of votes
Edit Source added so can check other seats https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?postcode=Ip8+3SQ
Second edit to give false post code ad used own initially. Thanks Dan for reminding me I needed to hide it. [Post edited 17 Jun 2024 16:11]
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| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 15:51 - Jun 17 with 5799 views | NthQldITFC |
| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 14:43 - Jun 17 by Pinewoodblue |
This one looks better
Implied MP at 2019: James Cartlidge (CON)*
County/Area: Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 72,700
Implied Turnout 2019: 70.2%
Predicted Turnout: 63.9%
Party. Vote 19. %19. Predicted % 2024
CON 31,432 61.6% 35.6%
LAB 10,026 19.6% 37.3%
LIB 6,499 12.7% 9.0%
Green3,074 6.0% 6.4%
Reform 0 0.0% 11.8%
* some boundary changes since 2019
Suffolk Coastal is predicted to be retained but only by a handful of votes
Edit Source added so can check other seats https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?postcode=Ip8+3SQ
Second edit to give false post code ad used own initially. Thanks Dan for reminding me I needed to hide it. [Post edited 17 Jun 2024 16:11]
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Yeah, that's what I've been looking at. There's a massive discrepancy somewhere. | |
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| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 22:50 - Jun 17 with 5529 views | reusersfreekicks |
| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 14:22 - Jun 17 by Dubtractor |
"Struggling to imagine what things will be like with a Reform MP"
Terrible. It will be terrible. |
1930s Germany? |  | | |
| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 23:19 - Jun 17 with 5443 views | bournemouthblue |
Fairly similar to having Tom Hunt as an MP I guess |  |
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| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 04:30 - Jun 18 with 5320 views | BABLUE |
| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 23:19 - Jun 17 by bournemouthblue |
Fairly similar to having Tom Hunt as an MP I guess |
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| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 07:04 - Jun 18 with 5198 views | LeistonBlue |
My concern is there are going to be a lot of “closet” reform voters, like we saw with Vote Leave back at the referendum. Those who don’t have the guts to admit they’ll vote reform when asked by mates, journos, pollsters, etc but when push comes to shove and they’re in the privacy of a voting booth that’s the box they tick. I have a feeling they will get a huge amount of votes and surprise quite a few people..
EDIT - spelling [Post edited 18 Jun 2024 7:34]
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| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 07:17 - Jun 18 with 5170 views | bluelagos |
| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 07:04 - Jun 18 by LeistonBlue |
My concern is there are going to be a lot of “closet” reform voters, like we saw with Vote Leave back at the referendum. Those who don’t have the guts to admit they’ll vote reform when asked by mates, journos, pollsters, etc but when push comes to shove and they’re in the privacy of a voting booth that’s the box they tick. I have a feeling they will get a huge amount of votes and surprise quite a few people..
EDIT - spelling [Post edited 18 Jun 2024 7:34]
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I live in the constituency and my partner lives in the Clacton constituency.
Appreciate my interactions/observations are anecdotal, but I don't get the same feelings in South Suffolk as you do in Tendring. That said we were 58:42 for leave in Babergh but still behind Clacton.
So I think the polls putting reform as credible winners here, am struggling to see it. I do think they could poll 20% but that wouldn't get you elected.
Like someone else on here I am very unsure whether to vote green or labour, will depend on whether I think labour could sneak it. |  |
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| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 07:32 - Jun 18 with 5093 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 07:04 - Jun 18 by LeistonBlue |
My concern is there are going to be a lot of “closet” reform voters, like we saw with Vote Leave back at the referendum. Those who don’t have the guts to admit they’ll vote reform when asked by mates, journos, pollsters, etc but when push comes to shove and they’re in the privacy of a voting booth that’s the box they tick. I have a feeling they will get a huge amount of votes and surprise quite a few people..
EDIT - spelling [Post edited 18 Jun 2024 7:34]
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I suspect it might increase turn out compared to before Farage got involved. |  |
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| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 07:49 - Jun 18 with 5028 views | WeirdFishes |
| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 07:17 - Jun 18 by bluelagos |
I live in the constituency and my partner lives in the Clacton constituency.
Appreciate my interactions/observations are anecdotal, but I don't get the same feelings in South Suffolk as you do in Tendring. That said we were 58:42 for leave in Babergh but still behind Clacton.
So I think the polls putting reform as credible winners here, am struggling to see it. I do think they could poll 20% but that wouldn't get you elected.
Like someone else on here I am very unsure whether to vote green or labour, will depend on whether I think labour could sneak it. |
I don’t particularly want to vote Labour but according to Electoral Calculus there’s only 0.4% in it between Labour and Tories in Suffolk Central and Ipswich North and I’ll kick myself if they get in again and I didn’t vote Labour. |  |
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| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 07:53 - Jun 18 with 5014 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 07:04 - Jun 18 by LeistonBlue |
My concern is there are going to be a lot of “closet” reform voters, like we saw with Vote Leave back at the referendum. Those who don’t have the guts to admit they’ll vote reform when asked by mates, journos, pollsters, etc but when push comes to shove and they’re in the privacy of a voting booth that’s the box they tick. I have a feeling they will get a huge amount of votes and surprise quite a few people..
EDIT - spelling [Post edited 18 Jun 2024 7:34]
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While I am surprised by number of Facebook friends sharing Reform information, including some who previously have claimed to be Labour supporters, I suspect the people most likely not to admit who they voted for will have voted Tory. | |
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| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 07:56 - Jun 18 with 4987 views | bluelagos |
| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 07:49 - Jun 18 by WeirdFishes |
I don’t particularly want to vote Labour but according to Electoral Calculus there’s only 0.4% in it between Labour and Tories in Suffolk Central and Ipswich North and I’ll kick myself if they get in again and I didn’t vote Labour. |
Exactly where my head is. | |
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| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 08:06 - Jun 18 with 4964 views | NthQldITFC |
| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 07:17 - Jun 18 by bluelagos |
I live in the constituency and my partner lives in the Clacton constituency.
Appreciate my interactions/observations are anecdotal, but I don't get the same feelings in South Suffolk as you do in Tendring. That said we were 58:42 for leave in Babergh but still behind Clacton.
So I think the polls putting reform as credible winners here, am struggling to see it. I do think they could poll 20% but that wouldn't get you elected.
Like someone else on here I am very unsure whether to vote green or labour, will depend on whether I think labour could sneak it. |
As someone who thinks Green issues underlie everything and must be of the utmost consideration, I'm voting Labour despite their watered down commitments. We have to flush the T*ries away as thoroughly as possible and give Labour a chance to start putting things right in the country and hopefully become a bit more progressive as and when they can.
Whatever Starmer is, he's not ideologically wedded to raping the country. | |
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| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 08:29 - Jun 18 with 4907 views | baxterbasics |
Thérèse Coffey is in real danger in Suffolk Coastal, which I am sure is going to break hearts around here. |  |
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| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 08:36 - Jun 18 with 4868 views | NthQldITFC |
| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 08:29 - Jun 18 by baxterbasics |
Thérèse Coffey is in real danger in Suffolk Coastal, which I am sure is going to break hearts around here. |
Might break some sluice gates, not sure about hearts. | |
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| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 07:16 - Jun 19 with 4593 views | Raffles |
| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 14:12 - Jun 17 by NthQldITFC |
Where are you looking at that? I'm looking at Labour slightly ahead of T*ries with Ref*rm at about 1/3 of either.
I'm in that seat and I'm considering voting Labour (rather than my usual Green) to make sure we get rid of the bonehead Cartlidge.
I'm not sure what to make of polls at the moment. I know the Greens are feeling fairly bullish about Waveney, but the MRP-driven polls aren't reflecting that. |
The tactical vote in S Suffolk is Labour. They have a chance. Waveney Valley is probably the only likely Green seat in this area, but they are the only real challengers to the Tories there. They've put all their eggs in that basket, because the candidate is Adrian Ramsay, the party leader. |  | | |
| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 07:22 - Jun 19 with 4580 views | Raffles |
| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 14:12 - Jun 17 by NthQldITFC |
Where are you looking at that? I'm looking at Labour slightly ahead of T*ries with Ref*rm at about 1/3 of either.
I'm in that seat and I'm considering voting Labour (rather than my usual Green) to make sure we get rid of the bonehead Cartlidge.
I'm not sure what to make of polls at the moment. I know the Greens are feeling fairly bullish about Waveney, but the MRP-driven polls aren't reflecting that. |
The reason why the MRP polls don't show the Greens leading in Waveney Valley is that, however more sophisticated they have become, they don't actually poll the seat. So they can't take account of strong local issues.
Waveney Valley covers much of the Mid Suffolk Council area, and the council was taken by the Greens last year. MRP doesn't know what's happening on the ground, so they can't take into account that the Greens have a hugely strong ground game, with every party activist around drawn in to work there. Whereas Labour has poor organization, and don't hold a single council seat. | | | |
| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 09:15 - Jun 19 with 4473 views | Prominent_Blue |
I don't understand why anyone believes the polls in the run up to an election. They are so wrong every time and are done on such a small population. I'll always look back fondly on that Channel 4 programme when Boris thrashed Corbyn and the reaction of all the Luvvy Lefties. TV Gold. | | | |
| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 09:20 - Jun 19 with 4447 views | bluelagos |
| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 09:15 - Jun 19 by Prominent_Blue |
I don't understand why anyone believes the polls in the run up to an election. They are so wrong every time and are done on such a small population. I'll always look back fondly on that Channel 4 programme when Boris thrashed Corbyn and the reaction of all the Luvvy Lefties. TV Gold. |
Be sure to logon on July 5th. Wouldn't want you to miss out on laughing at those who didn't forsee the magnificent conservative against all odds electoral victory of 2024. | |
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| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 09:24 - Jun 19 with 4432 views | Prominent_Blue |
| Blimey, I've just seen the latest MRP poll for my seat (south suffolk) on 09:20 - Jun 19 by bluelagos |
Be sure to logon on July 5th. Wouldn't want you to miss out on laughing at those who didn't forsee the magnificent conservative against all odds electoral victory of 2024. |
Can't wait !! | | | |
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