| Points needed for survival 13:59 - Jan 1 with 3189 views | realprojection |
I've run 20,000 simulations of my shot-based model. 35 points gives a greater than 60% chance of survival. So hoping for at least 20 points in second half of season!
|  |
| |  |
| Points needed for survival on 14:01 - Jan 1 with 3154 views | realprojection |
Full Premier League projection from shot-based model
| |
| |
| Points needed for survival on 14:03 - Jan 1 with 3112 views | FrimleyBlue |
Honestly, well done for enjoying something like this, but I do feel it's rather pointless too as it's based if im right in what we've done so far this season..
With the transfer window now open, KM potentially now finding his perfect formula, I think we've entered into effectively a new mini season and we've just finished our pre season. |  |
| |
| Points needed for survival on 14:04 - Jan 1 with 3101 views | _clive_baker_ |
| Points needed for survival on 14:01 - Jan 1 by realprojection |
Full Premier League projection from shot-based model
|
Nice visual, this.
41.2% chance of survival, feels about right to me on the eyeball test. |  | | |
| Points needed for survival on 14:07 - Jan 1 with 3060 views | LA_Tractor_Boy |
I think the points total will be quite high this season.
Wolves, Everton and Palace are all capable of winning games and the teams above them will almost certainly finish on 40+ points. |  | | |
| Points needed for survival on 14:10 - Jan 1 with 3025 views | _clive_baker_ |
| Points needed for survival on 14:03 - Jan 1 by FrimleyBlue |
Honestly, well done for enjoying something like this, but I do feel it's rather pointless too as it's based if im right in what we've done so far this season..
With the transfer window now open, KM potentially now finding his perfect formula, I think we've entered into effectively a new mini season and we've just finished our pre season. |
The transfer window is open for everyone innit, not sure its likely to over index for us particularly. Don't get me wrong it's a great opportunity to fill a massive problem area with another forward, but I'm sure those around us will be saying the same of their squads and some will have deeper pockets.
Agree though it effectively looks to have distilled down to a 19 game season, with a mini league of 4 currently being Everton, Wolves, us and Leicester. We're 3rd in that league, with the top 2 staying up and bottom 2 going down*. Wouldn't surprise me if its still as tight in another 9 games time and beyond.
*Assuming Palace and above stay the top 15 and Southampton stay bottom. | | | |
| Points needed for survival on 14:58 - Jan 1 with 2719 views | GeoffSentence |
| Points needed for survival on 14:01 - Jan 1 by realprojection |
Full Premier League projection from shot-based model
|
0% chance of winning the title? Pessimist. |  |
| |
| Points needed for survival on 15:35 - Jan 1 with 2511 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
A nice bit of analysis but what this does is assume the metics remain the same. As form changes for sides, their data will change. If you re-ran your model based on only the form from the last 6 matches, I suspect several of those clubs give a very different result. Just see how much Man City have dropped off recently.
I would expect 35 points to be enough but it depends very much on whether the teams that end up 3rd/4th bottom have a good spell of form or not. Changes in the availability of players will make a big difference. Cunha return after his 1 match ban and is still on fire vs injured or sold. Delap sold and no replacement vs keep Delap, Hirst fit and sign 2 others. |  |
| |
| Points needed for survival on 16:19 - Jan 1 with 2316 views | StokieBlue |
Do you have the actual methodology outlined somewhere?
SB |  | | |
Login to get fewer ads
| Points needed for survival on 16:22 - Jan 1 with 2302 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Points needed for survival on 14:10 - Jan 1 by _clive_baker_ |
The transfer window is open for everyone innit, not sure its likely to over index for us particularly. Don't get me wrong it's a great opportunity to fill a massive problem area with another forward, but I'm sure those around us will be saying the same of their squads and some will have deeper pockets.
Agree though it effectively looks to have distilled down to a 19 game season, with a mini league of 4 currently being Everton, Wolves, us and Leicester. We're 3rd in that league, with the top 2 staying up and bottom 2 going down*. Wouldn't surprise me if its still as tight in another 9 games time and beyond.
*Assuming Palace and above stay the top 15 and Southampton stay bottom. |
I think it would be fairly safe to say that if Southampton finish above us we are relegated. | |
| |
| Points needed for survival on 18:00 - Jan 1 with 2023 views | gosblue |
You've got to factor in outgoings. If Delap goes, we're down. If Cunha leaves, Wolves are probably down. If Cunha goes to Man U, then Utd will ne safe. Injuries and poor referees have had a direct effect on our points to-date. We need luck, good decision making and about 39 points to give us a really good chance of staying up. We're good enough to be mud-table | | | |
| Points needed for survival on 18:04 - Jan 1 with 1994 views | gosblue |
You've got to factor in outgoings. If Delap goes, we're down. If Cunha leaves, Wolves are probably down. If Cunha goes to Man U, then Utd will ne safe. Injuries and poor referees have had a direct effect on our points to-date. We need luck, good decision making and about 39 points to give us a really good chance of staying up. We're good enough to be mid table but that counts for nothing. | | | |
| Points needed for survival on 18:15 - Jan 1 with 1931 views | _clive_baker_ |
| Points needed for survival on 18:04 - Jan 1 by gosblue |
You've got to factor in outgoings. If Delap goes, we're down. If Cunha leaves, Wolves are probably down. If Cunha goes to Man U, then Utd will ne safe. Injuries and poor referees have had a direct effect on our points to-date. We need luck, good decision making and about 39 points to give us a really good chance of staying up. We're good enough to be mid table but that counts for nothing. |
United will be safe whether they sign Cunha or not, there's not a cat in hells chance they're going down. | | | |
| Points needed for survival on 18:22 - Jan 1 with 1884 views | WestSussexBlue |
Great effort. Unfortunately your avatar is as wide of the mark as the projection itself.
The final handful of games in every season in every league throw up completely unexpected results.
The only certainty is that Three teams will be relegated. They will be the Three worse teams over the course of a 38 Game season. | | | |
| Points needed for survival on 18:27 - Jan 1 with 1844 views | PrideOfTheEast |
| Points needed for survival on 14:10 - Jan 1 by _clive_baker_ |
The transfer window is open for everyone innit, not sure its likely to over index for us particularly. Don't get me wrong it's a great opportunity to fill a massive problem area with another forward, but I'm sure those around us will be saying the same of their squads and some will have deeper pockets.
Agree though it effectively looks to have distilled down to a 19 game season, with a mini league of 4 currently being Everton, Wolves, us and Leicester. We're 3rd in that league, with the top 2 staying up and bottom 2 going down*. Wouldn't surprise me if its still as tight in another 9 games time and beyond.
*Assuming Palace and above stay the top 15 and Southampton stay bottom. |
Although I think the window presents more of an opportunity for us to significantly enhance options on the bench which others probably already have. Would see there being more of a potential upside to a team relying on less established players but it’s obviously a bit of a lottery. | | | |
| Points needed for survival on 18:30 - Jan 1 with 1835 views | LegendofthePhoenix |
Where do we pick up the points? Here's a plan.
Points
05/01/2025 14:00 Fulham A 1
16/01/2025 19:30 Brighton and Hove Albion H 3
19/01/2025 16:30 Manchester City H 1
25/01/2025 15:00 Liverpool A 0
01/02/2025 15:00 Southampton H 3
15/02/2025 15:00 Aston Villa A 0
22/02/2025 15:00 Tottenham Hotspur H 1
26/02/2025 20:00 Manchester United A 1
08/03/2025 15:00 Crystal Palace A 1
15/03/2025 15:00 Nottingham Forest H 0
01/04/2025 19:45 AFC Bournemouth A 0
05/04/2025 15:00 Wolverhampton Wanderers H 3
12/04/2025 15:00 Chelsea A 0
19/04/2025 15:00 Arsenal H 1
26/04/2025 15:00 Newcastle United A 0
03/05/2025 15:00 Everton A 1
10/05/2025 15:00 Brentford H 3
18/05/2025 15:00 Leicester City A 3
25/05/2025 16:00 West Ham United H 1
Total 23
15+23 gets us to 38 points. Simples. |  |
| |
| Points needed for survival on 21:29 - Jan 1 with 1418 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Points needed for survival on 18:15 - Jan 1 by _clive_baker_ |
United will be safe whether they sign Cunha or not, there's not a cat in hells chance they're going down. |
I agree that Man U will not get relegated. However, there is a remote scenario where their January window goes badly and they end up with an even more disaffected and disjointed squad than now. They are then left with the reality of watching Amorin completely out of his depth with a squad determined to oust him and an ownership wondering how long before they pull the trigger. They then make another wrong appointment while in utter meltdown. | |
| |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
