| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. 07:25 - Feb 22 with 1508 views | Len_Brennan |
We have to assume that Southampton are gone & that Leicester won't finish above us, given their form, manager & morale around the club currently. But equally, we have to accept that Everton, Crystal Palace & West Ham (& Man Utd & Spurs) are too far ahead now for us to catch, so it's not worth tormenting ourselves over any what ifs.
The only 2 clubs we therefore need to concern ourselves with, when contemplating us beating the drop, are Wolverhampton Wanderers & Manchester City, and in both cases, trying to predict the points total, or number of wins, that'll be needed is somewhat futile.
We're only 2 points & a poor goal difference behind Wolves, so 1 win while they lose, and matching the rest of their results, will be enough. Given that we have to play them at home in the run in, it gives us a really good chance of achieving that 3 point swing; and arguably, if we are not capable of beating them at home, when it really matters, we won't deserve to stay up instead of them.
They are a decent side however, & have improved through a solid January transfer window, so it won't be easy, but we have improved too, & are usually strong at this stage of a season, so it's certainly far from the impossible task that it is made out to be elsewhere, and does not necessarily require the 5+ wins or up to 20 points predicted by many.
As for Man City, we can't do anything about that, however, if they were to get a hefty points reduction which left them, conveniently, just outside the relegation places, it would be absolutely farcical, & leave the Premier League open to all sorts of accusations. If the 'powers that be' come down heavy on them, they will surely have to have enough points deducted that will relegate them, to make the punishment have real consequences, and in that scenario, we would be the side most likely to benefit, whether we beat Wolves or not, & regardless of our wins/final points total. |  | | |  |
| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 07:43 - Feb 22 with 1428 views | _clive_baker_ |
Agree, although still an awful lot of conjecture and speculation.
Control the controllables innit. We have no influence in most of that, we just need to pick up as many points as possible and see where it leaves us. Fans can play their part by sticking with the team, staying positive and creating a big atmosphere. We need more Chelsea type performances on and off the pitch. Simple as that, and starts today.
Uppa town |  | | |
| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 07:53 - Feb 22 with 1378 views | NeedhamChris |
There are a lot of people writing off Leicester as a rubbish side that have already gone... Even though that rubbish side has the same points as us.
We're in big trouble if they switch RVN for someone remotely competent, so not safe to write them off yet. | |
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| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 08:00 - Feb 22 with 1351 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
Good post, agree with pretty much everything there.
However, I'm not sure this "usually strong at this stage of a season" point, which I'm hearing in loads of quarters, is anything more than clutching at straws. While it's undoubtably true, this is the Premier League now. Being the case in League 1 (especially) but the Championship also, is a world away from it having any bearing in this league. We're also facing a different battle to the one we were fighting in those leagues. It could be a factor, but I wouldn't be expecting it or hanging any hopes on it. |  |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 08:14 - Feb 22 with 1294 views | WestSussexBlue |
Agree, we have to stay in touch with Wolves all the way, beating them at PR is a must. I can see West Ham being the side that drops in to the battle. If we can put together an unbeaten run over a couple of spells, we may yet haul them in. I wonder where they play their final game…… | | | |
| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 08:25 - Feb 22 with 1257 views | bsw72 |
in short we have to get enough points for us to finish 17th or better, but we don't know what that total will be.
Effectively nothing has changed since the start of the season except the opportunity to gain those points has reduced by 2/3, as after all we can only influence the matches we play in, everything else is beyond our control. |  | | |
| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 08:35 - Feb 22 with 1197 views | Blue_Heath |
Forget Man City, it's us or Wolves although you can't totally rule Leicester out, remember their run before they won the league at end of previous season?
Wolves have a very nice fixture run shortly which will define who goes down in my opinion.
We need somehow get above Wolves and make sure we stay their but there new manager unfortunately for us seems to know what he's doing. If we can be above them and then beat them at PR we will likely do it. However, our home form is worse than ever this season.
At this stage it appears Wolves choose wisely and Leicester didn't when appointing new managers. [Post edited 22 Feb 10:19]
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| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 08:38 - Feb 22 with 1180 views | MK1 |
We just need to finish above Wolves. |  |
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| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 08:48 - Feb 22 with 1146 views | Len_Brennan |
| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 08:00 - Feb 22 by The_Flashing_Smile |
Good post, agree with pretty much everything there.
However, I'm not sure this "usually strong at this stage of a season" point, which I'm hearing in loads of quarters, is anything more than clutching at straws. While it's undoubtably true, this is the Premier League now. Being the case in League 1 (especially) but the Championship also, is a world away from it having any bearing in this league. We're also facing a different battle to the one we were fighting in those leagues. It could be a factor, but I wouldn't be expecting it or hanging any hopes on it. |
That's a fair point, as comparing the challenge of the Premier League with the Championship, & especially L1, is like comparing apples & grapes.
I suppose the point I was trying to allude to is how (new) players have tended to adapt to McKenna's methods over time, gotten used to their roles & plays, and the movements of their teammates, so his teams have been better & more consistent in the second half of those seasons.
The players trust our manager & buy into his methods, unlike it seems the Leicester manager, while the Wolves manager still has it all to prove, particularly if they get a couple of poor results. I don't expect us to go on a 5 game winning run, like we previously managed, but I do think we will be stronger than we were pre-January & less likely to drop points from winning or drawing positions. | | | |
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| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 08:55 - Feb 22 with 1105 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 08:48 - Feb 22 by Len_Brennan |
That's a fair point, as comparing the challenge of the Premier League with the Championship, & especially L1, is like comparing apples & grapes.
I suppose the point I was trying to allude to is how (new) players have tended to adapt to McKenna's methods over time, gotten used to their roles & plays, and the movements of their teammates, so his teams have been better & more consistent in the second half of those seasons.
The players trust our manager & buy into his methods, unlike it seems the Leicester manager, while the Wolves manager still has it all to prove, particularly if they get a couple of poor results. I don't expect us to go on a 5 game winning run, like we previously managed, but I do think we will be stronger than we were pre-January & less likely to drop points from winning or drawing positions. |
Oh yeah I totally get the point, and agree with it, just wondering whether that improvement will be enough in this league. It might be, it might not. | |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 09:44 - Feb 22 with 975 views | Guthrum |
| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 08:00 - Feb 22 by The_Flashing_Smile |
Good post, agree with pretty much everything there.
However, I'm not sure this "usually strong at this stage of a season" point, which I'm hearing in loads of quarters, is anything more than clutching at straws. While it's undoubtably true, this is the Premier League now. Being the case in League 1 (especially) but the Championship also, is a world away from it having any bearing in this league. We're also facing a different battle to the one we were fighting in those leagues. It could be a factor, but I wouldn't be expecting it or hanging any hopes on it. |
I think a large part of our late season form was down to a superiority (in L1), or at least matching the best (in the Champ) in terms of fitness and athleticism. An edge which we won't particularly have in the Prem, with its shorter season and well-conditioned teams throughout.
Tho I heard the other day that our running figures are at the top end even in this league.
The difference this season might be if Palmer can keep up his form from Coventry and Villa, giving Town a secure defensive base to work from. |  |
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| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 10:22 - Feb 22 with 873 views | Blue_Heath |
| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 09:44 - Feb 22 by Guthrum |
I think a large part of our late season form was down to a superiority (in L1), or at least matching the best (in the Champ) in terms of fitness and athleticism. An edge which we won't particularly have in the Prem, with its shorter season and well-conditioned teams throughout.
Tho I heard the other day that our running figures are at the top end even in this league.
The difference this season might be if Palmer can keep up his form from Coventry and Villa, giving Town a secure defensive base to work from. |
Running stats due to us chasing the ball a lot of the game and pretty meaningless.
Our home form is why we will go down unless something changes very quickly starting today. Our away form is 4th bottom of league it's the lack of home wins/draws which are why we are likely going down as we've effectively gifted six points to literally every team in bottom six. | | | |
| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 10:32 - Feb 22 with 837 views | Guthrum |
| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 10:22 - Feb 22 by Blue_Heath |
Running stats due to us chasing the ball a lot of the game and pretty meaningless.
Our home form is why we will go down unless something changes very quickly starting today. Our away form is 4th bottom of league it's the lack of home wins/draws which are why we are likely going down as we've effectively gifted six points to literally every team in bottom six. |
We've only played three times at home against teams currently in the bottom six. Two of those were draws.
In total against the five teams around us we are W1 D3 L2. | |
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| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 10:33 - Feb 22 with 838 views | billlm |
As you say wolves have improved I agree,
Earlier in the season they were woeful at the back good going forward like us on the wrong side of results,
There defence is much better now and in Cunha a forward who won't be at that club next season a very good player,
If he was to get an injury and miss four or five I'd say we have a chance,
Personally I don't,
Wolves remaining fixtures compared to ours I'd rather have,
Today's game will tell me everything win maybe our spring form is a thing,
Lose weight won't do it,
Draw so so but not enough now,
Need the cherries to continue there fine form no matter what,
If we're relegated I for one will embrace it,
We will be back stronger, |  | | |
| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 10:38 - Feb 22 with 811 views | ibbleobble |
I predict 35 points. | | | |
| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 10:38 - Feb 22 with 812 views | Blue_Heath |
| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 10:32 - Feb 22 by Guthrum |
We've only played three times at home against teams currently in the bottom six. Two of those were draws.
In total against the five teams around us we are W1 D3 L2. |
We lost at home to Palace, Everton and Southampton, drew with Leicester. As a result Palace and Everton now out of reach. Had we beaten Saints we'd be 4th bottom. another win v either Palace/Everton we'd have a gap. Hence our home form is why we will likely go down. | | | |
| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 10:42 - Feb 22 with 793 views | le2blue |
| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 10:33 - Feb 22 by billlm |
As you say wolves have improved I agree,
Earlier in the season they were woeful at the back good going forward like us on the wrong side of results,
There defence is much better now and in Cunha a forward who won't be at that club next season a very good player,
If he was to get an injury and miss four or five I'd say we have a chance,
Personally I don't,
Wolves remaining fixtures compared to ours I'd rather have,
Today's game will tell me everything win maybe our spring form is a thing,
Lose weight won't do it,
Draw so so but not enough now,
Need the cherries to continue there fine form no matter what,
If we're relegated I for one will embrace it,
We will be back stronger, |
They've just lost Emmanuel Agbadou, the guy they signed to tighten their defence, he is out for 3-4 weeks.
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| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 10:57 - Feb 22 with 757 views | Guthrum |
| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 10:38 - Feb 22 by Blue_Heath |
We lost at home to Palace, Everton and Southampton, drew with Leicester. As a result Palace and Everton now out of reach. Had we beaten Saints we'd be 4th bottom. another win v either Palace/Everton we'd have a gap. Hence our home form is why we will likely go down. |
Yes, we'd have been in a better position if we'd won or drawn all our home games against team in the bottom half of the table. But that's not a particularly reasonable expectation. | |
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| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 11:03 - Feb 22 with 744 views | Blue_Heath |
| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 10:57 - Feb 22 by Guthrum |
Yes, we'd have been in a better position if we'd won or drawn all our home games against team in the bottom half of the table. But that's not a particularly reasonable expectation. |
We won 5 times at home in 94/5, not saying we should have won all those games but Southampton for one, come on. | | | |
| Predicting points total needed to stay up is ... pointless. on 11:45 - Feb 22 with 673 views | OldFart71 |
I think I have said this several times before where people are saying things like " I hope so and so get beat" It's really irrelevant. Yes it's great if our immediate dangers lose but it's of no use at all if we do the same. As KM has said we need to put a run of results together and beat Wolves at home. But it was only a few games ago when we played Saints at home and lost. Our home form in general has been poor probably due to us getting caught by the opposing team setting up to counter attack and catching us with too few numbers at the back. | | | |
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