| Midfield pairs 10:34 - May 7 with 1847 views | HighgateBlue |
(Scroll down for the stats and to ignore the waffle!)
All of this (understandable) talk about next year's side got me thinking about who might be the nailed on starters. My immediate conclusion was that basically those who are nailed on to stay are not nailed on to start, and those who would be nailed on to start if they stayed are not nailed on to stay.
The uncertainty of personnel for next season is perhaps best illustrated in the CM positions, where (as things stand) we're losing 2 of the 3 players who've started more than 3 league games, and Morsy is not a spring chicken. I found myself, like many people, disappointed that Cajuste is going, but entirely 'meh' about losing Phillips (and I have nothing against the guy).
So /then/ I wondered whether my general impression of our CMs is actually borne out by our team's results. It seems to me that the following five conclusions are reasonably close to the general tone of the board over the last couple of months:
1) Morsy has been a great servant to the club, but if we're honest his abilities are starting to fade a bit and he's perhaps a bit slow now. We can't build around him for the long-term future.
2) Cajuste is a quality player, what a shame we couldn't pick him up on a permanent deal for the bargain basement option fee.
3) We can do better than Luongo now.
4) Phillips was OK at times, but a failed experiment, and probably too expensive. It's good, or at least fine, that he's leaving.
5) Taylor has looked OK in the Prem when he's come on. He might make a real contribution next season.
Our unchanging formation allows us to compare midfield pairs in terms of their results. Clearly there are many variables (suspensions, injuries, who we're playing, home or away, red cards, what stage subs come on etc etc) but I think the figures are at least interesting.
Here are the team's results when the following midfield pairs start the match. The columns are: Wins, draws, losses, games started, points won in those matches, PPGstarted.
Morsy Cajuste 4 4 8 16 16 1.000
Morsy Phillips 0 4 3 7 4 0.571
Morsy Taylor 0 1 2 3 1 0.333
Phillips Cajuste 0 1 6 7 1 0.143
Morsy Luongo 0 0 2 2 0 0.000
So, Morsy and Cajuste is the ONLY starting pair which has won a match. And that pair has won 25% of their starts.
Here are the team's results when the following midfielder starts the match. Again, the columns are: Wins, draws, losses, games started, points won in those matches, PPGstarted.
Morsy 4 9 15 28 21 0.750
Cajuste 4 5 14 23 17 0.739
Phillips 0 5 9 14 5 0.357
Taylor 0 1 2 3 1 0.333
Luongo 0 0 2 2 0 0.000
Taylor's sub performances are not captured by the above numbers. He came on in 3 of our wins, which doesn't tell us a great deal, but he did score our winning goal against Wolves. Our well-documented failings in the last 15 minutes of games may have some impact on how robust it is to rely on an analysis of those who started games.
There are a million caveats to any conclusions. Personally I think the above subjective statements about Cajuste, Phillips and Luongo are borne out by the numbers.
For me, it's the Morsy stats that are the most telling, and perhaps the most contradictory of the prevailing narrative. Morsy was such a captain fantastic in the lower divisions that he was the player most people feared being suspended (for which he has a knack), and was many people's pick for player of the year. He was the first name on the team sheet. Surely it would take quite some drop off in form, or some serious recruitment, for even a minority of fans to question his place in the team? Apparently not.
When he and Cajuste play together, we have form that would put us right on the cusp of staying up. No other pair comes close in terms of PPG, and no other pair has managed even a single win. Phillips has just over HALF the PPG that Morsy has, and Phillips has started 14 matches, so it's not a teeny tiny sample size.
So I am relatively optimistic about Morsy's prospects for next season. Given that Cajuste has had rave reviews, I don't think Morsy has had the credit he's deserved. Indeed, Phillips has started 7 games with Morsy and 7 games with Cajuste, and the former have yielded 4 points compared with just 1 for the latter.
You can dismiss this data, or draw any number of different conclusions from it.
I think it shows that Morsy has had a better season than many give him credit for, that Phillips has been a huge disappointment (no wins from 14 starts), and that yes, it would be lovely to keep Cajuste if that is in any way realistic.
Clearly we've not done well enough this season, and many believe that CM is a department which bears a lot of responsibility for that. It will need substantial recruitment next season, but my starting point is that Morsy starts next season as the man in possession. In a team that lacks experience, he has it in spades. And I'm not sure the evidence is there for a big drop off in performance in what is a brutal division.
Most of us watch a lot of Town, but sometimes a false impression can be gained on a subjective basis. I'd be interested to know people's thoughts. Do the above numbers surprise you? Can we conclude anything from them?
Next episode: 3 of our 4 wins have come with Dara and Burgess playing together... |  | | |  |
| Midfield pairs on 10:48 - May 7 with 1765 views | NthQldITFC |
It's certainly interesting to look at, but I would say the sample sizes make more misleading than anything. If more than one pair had played 10+ games, you're starting to have something worth studying, but even then there are so many effectively uncontrolled variables in the opposition, the rest of our team, season state etc., that I just don't think you can read anything into it.
It's the eye test that counts really, unless you can get much more data and start to factor out the other variables. |  |
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| Midfield pairs on 11:00 - May 7 with 1700 views | homer_123 |
| Midfield pairs on 10:48 - May 7 by NthQldITFC |
It's certainly interesting to look at, but I would say the sample sizes make more misleading than anything. If more than one pair had played 10+ games, you're starting to have something worth studying, but even then there are so many effectively uncontrolled variables in the opposition, the rest of our team, season state etc., that I just don't think you can read anything into it.
It's the eye test that counts really, unless you can get much more data and start to factor out the other variables. |
Then you need to start factoring in the opposition, home vs away etc etc |  |
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| Midfield pairs on 11:18 - May 7 with 1606 views | TractorFrog |
| Midfield pairs on 11:00 - May 7 by homer_123 |
Then you need to start factoring in the opposition, home vs away etc etc |
I did this here: https://f1frogblog.wordpress.com/2025/03/12/ipswich-town-fc-mathematical-model/
It is a few games out of date.
Current results are here. The exact meaning of the number is the t-value, which is explained in the article, but for a simple explanation, a positive score means results are better when that player starts, and a negative score means the opposite. The further away the number is from zero, the less likely it is that that difference could be explained by random chance.
Nathan Broadhead (+1.695)
Sam Morsy (+1.546)
Conor Townsend (+1.198)
Cameron Burgess (+1.104)
Christian Walton (+0.838)
Jens Cajuste (+0.819)
Axel Tuanzebe (+0.689)
Wes Burns (+0.675)
Liam Delap (+0.564)
Ben Johnson (+0.335)
Chiedozie Ogbene (+0.268)
Harry Clarke (+0.253)
Omari Hutchinson (+0.200)
Dara O'Shea (+0.098)
Sammie Szmodics (+0.036)
Conor Chaplin (-0.004)
Aro Muric (-0.069)
Julio Enciso (-0.212)
Luke Woolfenden (-0.225)
George Hirst (-0.478)
Alex Palmer (-0.540)
Massimo Luongo (-0.627)
Ben Godfrey (-0.631)
Leif Davis (-0.643)
Jack Taylor (-0.657)
Jacob Greaves (-1.385)
Kalvin Phillips (-1.387)
Jaden Philogene (-1.755)
Jack Clarke (-1.837) |  |
| They'd all laugh at me if they knew what I was trying to do. To create a new strain of super-wine in half-an-hour with a fraction of nature's resources and a FOOL for an assistant. 'Bernard Black, he's mad,' they'd say, 'he's insane, he's dangerous.' Well I'll show them! I'll show them all! | | Poll: | Who should start in CM with Cajuste? |
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| Midfield pairs on 11:21 - May 7 with 1599 views | TractorFrog |
I find it particularly noticeable that we have only collected one point from seven games when Sam Morsy hasn't started. | |
| They'd all laugh at me if they knew what I was trying to do. To create a new strain of super-wine in half-an-hour with a fraction of nature's resources and a FOOL for an assistant. 'Bernard Black, he's mad,' they'd say, 'he's insane, he's dangerous.' Well I'll show them! I'll show them all! | | Poll: | Who should start in CM with Cajuste? |
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| Midfield pairs on 11:25 - May 7 with 1566 views | homer_123 |
| Midfield pairs on 11:18 - May 7 by TractorFrog |
I did this here: https://f1frogblog.wordpress.com/2025/03/12/ipswich-town-fc-mathematical-model/
It is a few games out of date.
Current results are here. The exact meaning of the number is the t-value, which is explained in the article, but for a simple explanation, a positive score means results are better when that player starts, and a negative score means the opposite. The further away the number is from zero, the less likely it is that that difference could be explained by random chance.
Nathan Broadhead (+1.695)
Sam Morsy (+1.546)
Conor Townsend (+1.198)
Cameron Burgess (+1.104)
Christian Walton (+0.838)
Jens Cajuste (+0.819)
Axel Tuanzebe (+0.689)
Wes Burns (+0.675)
Liam Delap (+0.564)
Ben Johnson (+0.335)
Chiedozie Ogbene (+0.268)
Harry Clarke (+0.253)
Omari Hutchinson (+0.200)
Dara O'Shea (+0.098)
Sammie Szmodics (+0.036)
Conor Chaplin (-0.004)
Aro Muric (-0.069)
Julio Enciso (-0.212)
Luke Woolfenden (-0.225)
George Hirst (-0.478)
Alex Palmer (-0.540)
Massimo Luongo (-0.627)
Ben Godfrey (-0.631)
Leif Davis (-0.643)
Jack Taylor (-0.657)
Jacob Greaves (-1.385)
Kalvin Phillips (-1.387)
Jaden Philogene (-1.755)
Jack Clarke (-1.837) |
Nice! | |
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| Midfield pairs on 12:13 - May 7 with 1431 views | bluesym |
99% of the people who have criticised Morsy this season will be the same people who have massively overplayed Phillips' performances for us. |  |
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| Midfield pairs on 12:15 - May 7 with 1419 views | homer_123 |
| Midfield pairs on 12:13 - May 7 by bluesym |
99% of the people who have criticised Morsy this season will be the same people who have massively overplayed Phillips' performances for us. |
Genuinely gutted that KP hasn't worked out. There is a quality player there and I had hoped that KM and the team would have helped rediscover the player he was under Bielsa. | |
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| Midfield pairs on 12:18 - May 7 with 1400 views | baxterbasics |
| Midfield pairs on 12:15 - May 7 by homer_123 |
Genuinely gutted that KP hasn't worked out. There is a quality player there and I had hoped that KM and the team would have helped rediscover the player he was under Bielsa. |
Perhaps we would have without the injuries / suspension... he's been too stop-start to find any rhythm. Another "if only" to add to the list this season. |  |
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| Midfield pairs on 12:22 - May 7 with 1371 views | Smoresy |
This experience has been a sobering reminder of the levels in the game, and we haven't been enjoying the pinnacle over the past two decades. Awesome Championship players tend not to look so good up here. The Morsy outlook has wobbled a bit due to his age, which invites people to wonder if father time has caught up with him, rather than simply the level is so much higher. Personally, I don't feel he's slowed down much if at all. I'm expecting him to put in a monster shift again next season and look closer to his dominant self.
On the PPG numbers, I think the eye test and other performance data are more reliable. Eleven players on a pitch, heavy rotation across positions, tactical tweaks, red cards, different calibre of opposition, a very low points haul this season.. a couple of wins in which x player wasn't the vital contributor, maybe even left the pitch early with a different scoreline.. it's easy to see how those numbers may steer us to dubious conclusions on who our best and worst players have been.
That said, your numbers broadly chime with what I've seen. I love Luongo but he's been blowing out of his arris during his cameos. Taylor isn't as tidy or penetrating as others. Cajuste is the one who should feel short-changed in that leaderboard imo; he's had the most impact from midfield in our positive displays. |  | | |
| Midfield pairs on 12:26 - May 7 with 1349 views | bluesym |
| Midfield pairs on 12:15 - May 7 by homer_123 |
Genuinely gutted that KP hasn't worked out. There is a quality player there and I had hoped that KM and the team would have helped rediscover the player he was under Bielsa. |
He's been an awful signing in reality. On the rare occasions we have been able to get any football out of him,he's contributed the bare minimal. Such a key area of the squad we needed to strengthen as well. I'm not entirely convinced he will do much at *Leeds either
* not confirmed he is going there,but looks highly likely. [Post edited 7 May 12:27]
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| Midfield pairs on 12:28 - May 7 with 1319 views | homer_123 |
| Midfield pairs on 12:26 - May 7 by bluesym |
He's been an awful signing in reality. On the rare occasions we have been able to get any football out of him,he's contributed the bare minimal. Such a key area of the squad we needed to strengthen as well. I'm not entirely convinced he will do much at *Leeds either
* not confirmed he is going there,but looks highly likely. [Post edited 7 May 12:27]
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It's not worked out for him or us, as I say, a real shame.
He won't get close to getting into that Leeds team. Would be a bad move for him. | |
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| Midfield pairs on 12:48 - May 7 with 1189 views | Garv |
Anyone who is doubting Morsy for next season is nuts IMO.
The idea of using Phillips and Cajuste for more legs was nice in theory but it never offered the tempo or penetration that Morsy does.
It happens far less in this league obviously but he's still using his strength and bursts of energy/acceleration to get past people and gets things going. See George Hirst's run and shot past the post against Arsenal, started by Morsy.
First choice next season hands down. |  |
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| Midfield pairs on 13:23 - May 7 with 1061 views | baxterbasics |
| Midfield pairs on 12:48 - May 7 by Garv |
Anyone who is doubting Morsy for next season is nuts IMO.
The idea of using Phillips and Cajuste for more legs was nice in theory but it never offered the tempo or penetration that Morsy does.
It happens far less in this league obviously but he's still using his strength and bursts of energy/acceleration to get past people and gets things going. See George Hirst's run and shot past the post against Arsenal, started by Morsy.
First choice next season hands down. |
I think Morsy will definitely be important next season, assuming he doesn't want to move on. But we definitely need some succession planning in the summer. | |
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| Midfield pairs on 13:35 - May 7 with 1022 views | oldbeardy |
I reckon Morsy is easily capable of having a great season next year and remaining as the first name on the teamsheet. I can't see Taylor cutting it as a regular starter though. Unless Cam's ready to step up it's going to be a key area, perhaps the key area, to strengthen. | | | |
| Midfield pairs on 13:41 - May 7 with 994 views | Tractor_Boy333 |
| Midfield pairs on 12:48 - May 7 by Garv |
Anyone who is doubting Morsy for next season is nuts IMO.
The idea of using Phillips and Cajuste for more legs was nice in theory but it never offered the tempo or penetration that Morsy does.
It happens far less in this league obviously but he's still using his strength and bursts of energy/acceleration to get past people and gets things going. See George Hirst's run and shot past the post against Arsenal, started by Morsy.
First choice next season hands down. |
Morsy was great last couple of seasons and one of my favourite players.
He never goes missing and always wants the ball. I certainly admire his leadership skills and his determination.
But he slows the play down a lot and his lack of pace has been very evident this season. So whilst I think he has a role to play I really worry if he’s starting every week. Midfield reinforcements are a must for me and we can’t rely on Morsy if we want promotion next season. | | | |
| Midfield pairs on 14:00 - May 7 with 947 views | SuffolkPunchFC |
| Midfield pairs on 13:41 - May 7 by Tractor_Boy333 |
Morsy was great last couple of seasons and one of my favourite players.
He never goes missing and always wants the ball. I certainly admire his leadership skills and his determination.
But he slows the play down a lot and his lack of pace has been very evident this season. So whilst I think he has a role to play I really worry if he’s starting every week. Midfield reinforcements are a must for me and we can’t rely on Morsy if we want promotion next season. |
This I would agree is where we are with Morsy right now. He's done ok for us this season, in a challenging season, and was brilliant for us in the 2 seasons before that. However, he's getting slower and whereas he's likely to be fine for us next season, by the time we return to the PL (even if it's at the first attempt), he will be too far past his best to be competitive at that level.
We therefore need to be planning his succession over the summer, and transitioning to it during next season. | | | |
| Midfield pairs on 14:05 - May 7 with 940 views | Churchman |
| Midfield pairs on 13:41 - May 7 by Tractor_Boy333 |
Morsy was great last couple of seasons and one of my favourite players.
He never goes missing and always wants the ball. I certainly admire his leadership skills and his determination.
But he slows the play down a lot and his lack of pace has been very evident this season. So whilst I think he has a role to play I really worry if he’s starting every week. Midfield reinforcements are a must for me and we can’t rely on Morsy if we want promotion next season. |
For the Championship Morsy is great. Other teams don’t like him which means he hurts them. Literally at times.
Yes, he is ageing (aren’t we all) but it should be remembered that the Championship is walking football by comparison to the Premier League. Morsy will be just fine and the perfect on field leader.
Phillips? I hoped he rediscover some of what made him such a top player. But those days are behind him sadly. He hasn’t played enough and when he has, his impact has been negligible. Even his touch is slightly off.
Cajuste? I’m not as impressed as most people. My view is that he flatters to deceive. He has great ability running with the ball. Good control. But his impact on games? Does he hurt the opposition enough? Does he get enough goals (1 in 24 apps)? I’m in two minds about him, but I suspect he’ll move on to another European club or even one of the promoted teams.
Luongo? Terrific player. I wish he’d been a few years younger because I suspect he’d have made a big difference to our absent midfield this season. He’s clearly coming to the end and will probably call it a day here.
Humphreys: from the fractions we saw of him before he went on loan and how well he’s done this year tells me he’s more than a squad player. He looks a really good footballer to me. Flexible too.
We are going to need possibly two new midfielders next season. Goodness know who, but one with potential and one with a bit of experience.
But back to Morsy - one of the first names on the team sheet for me. |  | | |
| Midfield pairs on 14:55 - May 7 with 821 views | Garv |
| Midfield pairs on 14:00 - May 7 by SuffolkPunchFC |
This I would agree is where we are with Morsy right now. He's done ok for us this season, in a challenging season, and was brilliant for us in the 2 seasons before that. However, he's getting slower and whereas he's likely to be fine for us next season, by the time we return to the PL (even if it's at the first attempt), he will be too far past his best to be competitive at that level.
We therefore need to be planning his succession over the summer, and transitioning to it during next season. |
Is he actually getting slower or has he just been coming up against much quicker, athletic opponents? | |
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| Midfield pairs on 15:36 - May 7 with 733 views | baxterbasics |
| Midfield pairs on 14:55 - May 7 by Garv |
Is he actually getting slower or has he just been coming up against much quicker, athletic opponents? |
I'd say the gap we've seen is 10% him getting slower, 90% quicker opponents. But at his age we're all getting slower, right? | |
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| Midfield pairs on 15:50 - May 7 with 687 views | GavTWTD |
| Midfield pairs on 12:48 - May 7 by Garv |
Anyone who is doubting Morsy for next season is nuts IMO.
The idea of using Phillips and Cajuste for more legs was nice in theory but it never offered the tempo or penetration that Morsy does.
It happens far less in this league obviously but he's still using his strength and bursts of energy/acceleration to get past people and gets things going. See George Hirst's run and shot past the post against Arsenal, started by Morsy.
First choice next season hands down. |
There's no doubt that Morsy would do well next season. My only doubt is that McKenna will have one eye on the 26/27 season as well and recruitment will be focused on Premiership ready players. Probably wishing for too much. They've always said to recruit for the division above. |  |
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| Midfield pairs on 19:40 - May 7 with 454 views | SuffolkPunchFC |
| Midfield pairs on 14:55 - May 7 by Garv |
Is he actually getting slower or has he just been coming up against much quicker, athletic opponents? |
Both IMO. And he’ll only get slower now - and we have to have an eye on our return to the PL (maybe in 15 months). | | | |
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