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Starmer's principled positioning .... on 11:51 - May 13 by lowhouseblue
yes a spike up in the stock of overseas students has a one off effect on net immigration. the stock of students then stabilises and student net immigration drops back to zero. but international student numbers are currently falling. those on graduate visas are no longer students. a reason for high net immigration is definitely the decision to offer a graduate visa route, but that's still separate from people who are currently studying here.
Sure, but in some of the years you often reference where net migration hit record levels, we saw record numbers of students visas and visas for their dependents granted (source below). So when you are referencing the huge increase in some of those years, student visas clearly have had the kind of impact you acknowledge that they can have. And given these are actual people and not just statistics, the numbers then staying on graduate visas also clearly have an impact that is part and parcel of student migration. We're projected to see a fall in net migration this year and it'll be interesting to see how much of that is due to lower student numbers and some of those from the peak years going home post expiration of graduate visas.
Starmer's principled positioning .... on 11:59 - May 13 by Herbivore
Sure, but in some of the years you often reference where net migration hit record levels, we saw record numbers of students visas and visas for their dependents granted (source below). So when you are referencing the huge increase in some of those years, student visas clearly have had the kind of impact you acknowledge that they can have. And given these are actual people and not just statistics, the numbers then staying on graduate visas also clearly have an impact that is part and parcel of student migration. We're projected to see a fall in net migration this year and it'll be interesting to see how much of that is due to lower student numbers and some of those from the peak years going home post expiration of graduate visas.
the overseas student population in 2017 was approx 450,000 and it rose to a peak of 750,000 in 2023. so over a period of 6 years net student migration (ie a rise in the stock of students) of 300,000. so net migration of about 50,000 a year. that is nowhere near explaining the total net migration figures we have seen.
"staying on graduate visas ... is part and parcel of student migration." no, that's a policy choice. you can have overseas students without offering graduate visas - indeed, that was always the case in the past. the previous government chose to introduce that visa - it's not part and parcel of higher education. the effect has been to encourage people to study here in order to stay on afterwards - while it is called a graduate visa there's no necessity for them to take graduate jobs.
And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show
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Starmer's principled positioning .... on 12:40 - May 13 with 742 views
Starmer's principled positioning .... on 12:30 - May 13 by lowhouseblue
the overseas student population in 2017 was approx 450,000 and it rose to a peak of 750,000 in 2023. so over a period of 6 years net student migration (ie a rise in the stock of students) of 300,000. so net migration of about 50,000 a year. that is nowhere near explaining the total net migration figures we have seen.
"staying on graduate visas ... is part and parcel of student migration." no, that's a policy choice. you can have overseas students without offering graduate visas - indeed, that was always the case in the past. the previous government chose to introduce that visa - it's not part and parcel of higher education. the effect has been to encourage people to study here in order to stay on afterwards - while it is called a graduate visa there's no necessity for them to take graduate jobs.
That's rather a misleading way of looking at the stats. The data I've provided shows that we saw fairly minor fluctuations in student numbers for many years before seeing a spike of well over 50% in 2021 followed by another large spike of almost a third in 2022. That means numbers of students going up by over 200k in two years, which happens to coincide with when we saw big spikes in overall net migration.
If a decent proportion of them stay on with a graduate visa as well then of course it has an impact on net migration. The graduate visa is a policy choice, yes, but in our current system it is also part of parcel of student migration. If they don't come here to study, they don't get the visa. I think you're being a bit disingenuous when you say student migration has zero impact on net migration, it doesn't take much digging to see that that's clearly not the case, particularly in the years you like to cite as seeing unprecedented levels of net migration.
Starmer's principled positioning .... on 12:40 - May 13 by Herbivore
That's rather a misleading way of looking at the stats. The data I've provided shows that we saw fairly minor fluctuations in student numbers for many years before seeing a spike of well over 50% in 2021 followed by another large spike of almost a third in 2022. That means numbers of students going up by over 200k in two years, which happens to coincide with when we saw big spikes in overall net migration.
If a decent proportion of them stay on with a graduate visa as well then of course it has an impact on net migration. The graduate visa is a policy choice, yes, but in our current system it is also part of parcel of student migration. If they don't come here to study, they don't get the visa. I think you're being a bit disingenuous when you say student migration has zero impact on net migration, it doesn't take much digging to see that that's clearly not the case, particularly in the years you like to cite as seeing unprecedented levels of net migration.
the total overseas student population has only risen by 300,000 at its peak as stated.
the graduate visa is a policy choice - it could be cancelled tomorrow. it is not an essential part of higher education - the two are quite separate. indeed, our 'current system' has produced net migration of 3 million in 4 years so it urgently needs to change. student migration has zero impact on net migration - having a graduate visa has a big impact.
"If they don't come here to study, they don't get the visa." well quite. people are using uk HE to get the visa and some universities are funding themselves by exploiting that. that is the mess that this policy choice has left us with.
And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show
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Starmer's principled positioning .... on 12:56 - May 13 with 708 views
Starmer's principled positioning .... on 12:40 - May 13 by Herbivore
That's rather a misleading way of looking at the stats. The data I've provided shows that we saw fairly minor fluctuations in student numbers for many years before seeing a spike of well over 50% in 2021 followed by another large spike of almost a third in 2022. That means numbers of students going up by over 200k in two years, which happens to coincide with when we saw big spikes in overall net migration.
If a decent proportion of them stay on with a graduate visa as well then of course it has an impact on net migration. The graduate visa is a policy choice, yes, but in our current system it is also part of parcel of student migration. If they don't come here to study, they don't get the visa. I think you're being a bit disingenuous when you say student migration has zero impact on net migration, it doesn't take much digging to see that that's clearly not the case, particularly in the years you like to cite as seeing unprecedented levels of net migration.
sorry, to add. a reason also for a spike in study visas is the shift by overseas students to one year masters courses. if the average course length falls then, even with a constant student population, the number of new arrivals each year rises. part of the reason for the shift to shorter courses may well be that it's a cheaper way of accessing the graduate visa? the graduate visa was introduced in 2021 so that would match your data exactly.
And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show
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Starmer's principled positioning .... on 13:36 - May 13 with 678 views
Starmer's principled positioning .... on 12:40 - May 13 by Herbivore
That's rather a misleading way of looking at the stats. The data I've provided shows that we saw fairly minor fluctuations in student numbers for many years before seeing a spike of well over 50% in 2021 followed by another large spike of almost a third in 2022. That means numbers of students going up by over 200k in two years, which happens to coincide with when we saw big spikes in overall net migration.
If a decent proportion of them stay on with a graduate visa as well then of course it has an impact on net migration. The graduate visa is a policy choice, yes, but in our current system it is also part of parcel of student migration. If they don't come here to study, they don't get the visa. I think you're being a bit disingenuous when you say student migration has zero impact on net migration, it doesn't take much digging to see that that's clearly not the case, particularly in the years you like to cite as seeing unprecedented levels of net migration.
That’s more than half of the number of immigrants arriving in 2022 (1.18 million - https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/press/ons-revises-last-years-net-migration Nb. timescales don’t exactly overlap, so it’s not a precise comparison but close enough to make the point). More than half! So students and their dependents obviously massively influence the figures.
Students bring in £Billions to the UK economy and subsidise home students. An analysis of the 2021 intake (where numbers were much smaller than in 22/23 and 23/24 showed that income to the Uni sector was £27.9BN. Their overall value to the economy (so other spending on living expenses, etc.) brings that up to £46BN - https://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/what-we-do/creating-voice-our-members/media-rel
For comparison, our largest goods export markets today are generators (£31.8BN) and cars (£31.7BN) - https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-trade-in-numbers/uk-trade-in-numbers Factor in the greater student numbers in 22/23 and 23/24 and it’s likely either one of those years could be worth more than our top two goods export sectors combined. Education is possibly our third, and certainly fourth, most valuable service sector export. In short, it’s massively important and employs thousands of people.
Deliberately cutting numbers when so much time and money has gone into selling UK education globally and while we have (had) the capacity to deliver is utter madness. It’s Brexit-esque levels of stupidity in terms of self harming.
And of course is directly contradicts the government’s supposed main aim of growth, so makes no sense politically.
I think you’re giving him too much credit Bankster. In a political sense I don’t think he has any principles. He certainly doesn’t have a unifying ideology.
Starmer's principled positioning .... on 13:38 - May 13 by Swansea_Blue
I think you’re giving him too much credit Bankster. In a political sense I don’t think he has any principles. He certainly doesn’t have a unifying ideology.
I may have omitted these, '.........'
"They break our legs and tell us to be grateful when they offer us crutches."
That’s more than half of the number of immigrants arriving in 2022 (1.18 million - https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/press/ons-revises-last-years-net-migration Nb. timescales don’t exactly overlap, so it’s not a precise comparison but close enough to make the point). More than half! So students and their dependents obviously massively influence the figures.
Students bring in £Billions to the UK economy and subsidise home students. An analysis of the 2021 intake (where numbers were much smaller than in 22/23 and 23/24 showed that income to the Uni sector was £27.9BN. Their overall value to the economy (so other spending on living expenses, etc.) brings that up to £46BN - https://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/what-we-do/creating-voice-our-members/media-rel
For comparison, our largest goods export markets today are generators (£31.8BN) and cars (£31.7BN) - https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-trade-in-numbers/uk-trade-in-numbers Factor in the greater student numbers in 22/23 and 23/24 and it’s likely either one of those years could be worth more than our top two goods export sectors combined. Education is possibly our third, and certainly fourth, most valuable service sector export. In short, it’s massively important and employs thousands of people.
Deliberately cutting numbers when so much time and money has gone into selling UK education globally and while we have (had) the capacity to deliver is utter madness. It’s Brexit-esque levels of stupidity in terms of self harming.
And of course is directly contradicts the government’s supposed main aim of growth, so makes no sense politically.
"That’s more than half of the number of immigrants arriving in 2022" but it's not a significant proportion of net migration. you persist in focusing on the fact that students arrive (ie they get a student visa) but then you totally ignore the fact that the same number leave (they either graduate and go home or their student visa ends and, since 2021, they move onto a graduate visa). coming here to be a student does not in itself change total net immigration - the policy choice to issue graduate visas since 2021 does.
yes overseas students pay fees and bring money into the uk. but, the decision in 2021 to issue graduate visas led to more people wanting to take short courses so as to qualify for the graduate visa, and various universities scaling up new places in order to capture that income stream. we now have some universities financially dependent on a visa arrangement which is essentially a backdoor route into the uk. it may well have disguised a broader financial crisis in HE, but it is a mad way to run HE and a mad way to determine immigration policy.
And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show
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Starmer's principled positioning .... on 14:29 - May 13 with 627 views
Starmer's principled positioning .... on 14:03 - May 13 by lowhouseblue
"That’s more than half of the number of immigrants arriving in 2022" but it's not a significant proportion of net migration. you persist in focusing on the fact that students arrive (ie they get a student visa) but then you totally ignore the fact that the same number leave (they either graduate and go home or their student visa ends and, since 2021, they move onto a graduate visa). coming here to be a student does not in itself change total net immigration - the policy choice to issue graduate visas since 2021 does.
yes overseas students pay fees and bring money into the uk. but, the decision in 2021 to issue graduate visas led to more people wanting to take short courses so as to qualify for the graduate visa, and various universities scaling up new places in order to capture that income stream. we now have some universities financially dependent on a visa arrangement which is essentially a backdoor route into the uk. it may well have disguised a broader financial crisis in HE, but it is a mad way to run HE and a mad way to determine immigration policy.
But it is not always the same number leaving as arriving so I'm not sure why you've pivoted back to this point. In the specific years being discussed there were far more new students arriving than there were leaving, so they clearly did impact on net migration.
Starmer's principled positioning .... on 23:32 - May 12 by Herbivore
It's genuinely mental that in the 21st century there are still people shilling for the idea that all we need to do is keep funnelling wealth to the super rich and eventually it'll trickle its way down.
There's a saying which says " You don't get rich by giving your money away" I have no problem with wealth. Too many in this Country for reasons best known to themselves despise those with wealth. However, what I cannot accept is how those at the top, despite austerity, covid and wars the gap between the super rich and the poor has grown substantially during that time. A statistic I recently heard was that 51 families in the UK have wealth totalling more than 32 million of the UK's population. That is an outstanding statistic. I don't know how that stands in regards to the other statistic of 10% of the population owns 90% of the wealth.
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Starmer's principled positioning .... on 17:53 - May 13 with 554 views
Starmer's principled positioning .... on 08:40 - May 13 by Leaky
My partner works n a care home, from next week she will be the only British person working there. She is now thinking of leaving, as she has to train new staff whose English language skills are very limited,.She gives them instructions they say yes ok, however, she knows they havn't got a clue what to do due.
Social care needs a massive overhaul, and despite it apparently being every government’s priority in their manifestos since 1642 it is only getting worse.
I don’t know what the answer is beyond throwing more money at it. And maybe that is the only answer. From the little I’ve read about it, we’ll only make it more attractive to UK nationals if we pay more and even then I’m not sure if that will work. And then people will have to pay substantially more for their relative’s care.
In an ideal world we’d go back to what we used to do and look after our own within our own homes/communities. I’m sure people can give me lots of reasons why that’s not possible though.
Starmer's principled positioning .... on 14:29 - May 13 by Herbivore
But it is not always the same number leaving as arriving so I'm not sure why you've pivoted back to this point. In the specific years being discussed there were far more new students arriving than there were leaving, so they clearly did impact on net migration.
as explained, there were students moving onto graduate visas after 2021. that was a policy choice. prior to 2021 ex students, who didn't have a sponsored job (with a sufficient salary and after a labour market test etc) in the uk, left. the issue then is the introduction of the graduate visa, not the fact that we have overseas students here.
but, the increase in the size of the overseas student population (the stock) happened over a number of years and contributed only in a minor way to total net immigration (the flow). after 2023 the stock of overseas students started to fall - but again the effect on total net immigration was small.
but we've been over this several times so best left there.
And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show
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Starmer's principled positioning .... on 19:26 - May 13 with 452 views
Starmer's principled positioning .... on 18:50 - May 13 by lowhouseblue
as explained, there were students moving onto graduate visas after 2021. that was a policy choice. prior to 2021 ex students, who didn't have a sponsored job (with a sufficient salary and after a labour market test etc) in the uk, left. the issue then is the introduction of the graduate visa, not the fact that we have overseas students here.
but, the increase in the size of the overseas student population (the stock) happened over a number of years and contributed only in a minor way to total net immigration (the flow). after 2023 the stock of overseas students started to fall - but again the effect on total net immigration was small.
but we've been over this several times so best left there.
That's not a small increase, that's nearly 300k additional people arriving. The graduate visas then compound the issue and add to net migration further. If you want to see those as entirely separate issues that's fine, though I think that's a slightly odd way of looking at it as graduate visas mean fewer students are leaving and one of your main arguments has been that the number of students leaving matches the number arriving (which isn't true statistically or by looking at it in a more common sense way of considering the actual people who are arriving and then leaving, or not).
Edit: And the big increase in dependents coming with students in the years when we saw net migration sky rocket also needs to be taken into account, this is also covered in the link I've shared.
Let's leave it there though as I can see you won't shift despite the evidence.
That's not a small increase, that's nearly 300k additional people arriving. The graduate visas then compound the issue and add to net migration further. If you want to see those as entirely separate issues that's fine, though I think that's a slightly odd way of looking at it as graduate visas mean fewer students are leaving and one of your main arguments has been that the number of students leaving matches the number arriving (which isn't true statistically or by looking at it in a more common sense way of considering the actual people who are arriving and then leaving, or not).
Edit: And the big increase in dependents coming with students in the years when we saw net migration sky rocket also needs to be taken into account, this is also covered in the link I've shared.
Let's leave it there though as I can see you won't shift despite the evidence.
[Post edited 13 May 19:28]
that's study visas issued (flow) not the number of overseas students in the uk (stock). the stock did rise between 2020 and 2022 but not by such a big number. net migration = change in stock (not the size of the flow). as previously explained, part of what happened was a shift by overseas students to shorter courses, inspired largely by the introduction of the graduate visa. if people stay as students for a shorter time you need to issue more study visas even to keep the number of overseas students constant. in those years total net migration was the best part of a million a year, the yearly increase in overseas student numbers can't explain more than 10% of that. but i don't think you're listening.
And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show
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Starmer's principled positioning .... on 20:32 - May 13 with 366 views
Starmer's principled positioning .... on 19:55 - May 13 by lowhouseblue
that's study visas issued (flow) not the number of overseas students in the uk (stock). the stock did rise between 2020 and 2022 but not by such a big number. net migration = change in stock (not the size of the flow). as previously explained, part of what happened was a shift by overseas students to shorter courses, inspired largely by the introduction of the graduate visa. if people stay as students for a shorter time you need to issue more study visas even to keep the number of overseas students constant. in those years total net migration was the best part of a million a year, the yearly increase in overseas student numbers can't explain more than 10% of that. but i don't think you're listening.
It's not that I'm not listening, it's that I don't agree with you. Your position has been that student migration doesn't have a significant impact on overall net migration because the number of students coming in and out, bar the odd spike, is largely static.
It's not just me that disagrees with you, the ONS also disagrees with you. This is from them: "Net migration for those initially arriving on a study-related visa for year ending (YE) June 2024 is estimated at 262,000. This is lower than YE June 2023 and YE June 2022 for which our revised estimates are 326,000 and 269,000. However, this is still over nine times higher than YE June 2019 when net migration was estimated at 24,000".
So your view that net migration of students is negligible is about 6 years out of date. Full link below, the data and analysis are in section 3.
Starmer's principled positioning .... on 09:49 - May 13 by nrb1985
Ok
But whatever you think of me you have to admit your telegraph comment did make you come across as a bit of a t1t.
If you don’t want somebody to take a swing back and clearly get so offended by it, maybe better not to post obviously condescending and inflammatory things?
And your remark about the banking sector too is equally as nasty as what you think you understood about mine re the treasury.
Don’t think you’ve come out of this looking great either.
[Post edited 13 May 9:57]
To use a legal phrase which has become an idiom.
I rest my case!
[Post edited 13 May 20:55]
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Starmer's principled positioning .... on 20:56 - May 13 with 336 views
Starmer's principled positioning .... on 20:32 - May 13 by Herbivore
It's not that I'm not listening, it's that I don't agree with you. Your position has been that student migration doesn't have a significant impact on overall net migration because the number of students coming in and out, bar the odd spike, is largely static.
It's not just me that disagrees with you, the ONS also disagrees with you. This is from them: "Net migration for those initially arriving on a study-related visa for year ending (YE) June 2024 is estimated at 262,000. This is lower than YE June 2023 and YE June 2022 for which our revised estimates are 326,000 and 269,000. However, this is still over nine times higher than YE June 2019 when net migration was estimated at 24,000".
So your view that net migration of students is negligible is about 6 years out of date. Full link below, the data and analysis are in section 3.
Starmer's principled positioning .... on 20:32 - May 13 by Herbivore
It's not that I'm not listening, it's that I don't agree with you. Your position has been that student migration doesn't have a significant impact on overall net migration because the number of students coming in and out, bar the odd spike, is largely static.
It's not just me that disagrees with you, the ONS also disagrees with you. This is from them: "Net migration for those initially arriving on a study-related visa for year ending (YE) June 2024 is estimated at 262,000. This is lower than YE June 2023 and YE June 2022 for which our revised estimates are 326,000 and 269,000. However, this is still over nine times higher than YE June 2019 when net migration was estimated at 24,000".
So your view that net migration of students is negligible is about 6 years out of date. Full link below, the data and analysis are in section 3.
jeez, we've covered this, and you really need to actually read what you quote and what you then post.
your quote is explicitly about "those initially arriving on a study-related visa". INITIALLY!!. they have then ceased to be students. this is the point i've been making all along. INITIALLY they come on study visas, but at the end of their one year course, they cease to be students and they get a graduate visa. the issue here, as i have patiently been trying to explain all along, is the availability of graduate visas since 2021.
the population of overseas students has NOT grown by the numbers you quote - if it had then that would have been positive net immigration of students. but that didn't happen. what has happened is that the government in 2021 started to allow people who had been students to have a graduate visa. the net migration here is solely because the government is now since 2021 issuing graduate visas, not because of current student numbers. if we had the exact same number of students but abolished graduate visas there would then be no net migration amongst that group. how many times do i need to explain it? and even your own quote should make it clear to you - "INITIALLY arriving on a study-related visa". INITIALLY. they aren't now still studying. they came as students - they then ceased to be students, but still stayed on a different visa which is the whole issue here.
jeez.
[Post edited 13 May 22:05]
And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show
-1
Starmer's principled positioning .... on 22:03 - May 13 with 243 views
Starmer's principled positioning .... on 21:58 - May 13 by lowhouseblue
jeez, we've covered this, and you really need to actually read what you quote and what you then post.
your quote is explicitly about "those initially arriving on a study-related visa". INITIALLY!!. they have then ceased to be students. this is the point i've been making all along. INITIALLY they come on study visas, but at the end of their one year course, they cease to be students and they get a graduate visa. the issue here, as i have patiently been trying to explain all along, is the availability of graduate visas since 2021.
the population of overseas students has NOT grown by the numbers you quote - if it had then that would have been positive net immigration of students. but that didn't happen. what has happened is that the government in 2021 started to allow people who had been students to have a graduate visa. the net migration here is solely because the government is now since 2021 issuing graduate visas, not because of current student numbers. if we had the exact same number of students but abolished graduate visas there would then be no net migration amongst that group. how many times do i need to explain it? and even your own quote should make it clear to you - "INITIALLY arriving on a study-related visa". INITIALLY. they aren't now still studying. they came as students - they then ceased to be students, but still stayed on a different visa which is the whole issue here.
jeez.
[Post edited 13 May 22:05]
OK so I've got used to no capitals but heer!! Oh and it's Jezza (capitals optional)
"They break our legs and tell us to be grateful when they offer us crutches."
Starmer's principled positioning .... on 22:03 - May 13 by BanksterDebtSlave
OK so I've got used to no capitals but heer!! Oh and it's Jezza (capitals optional)
thanks. corrected to here.
jezza is so 2019.
And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show
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