| Guffers prediction league 22:24 - Jan 21 with 674 views | Keno |
It must be time for that soon?
It’s got us promoted twice!! |  |
| |  |
| Guffers prediction league on 22:30 - Jan 21 with 649 views | SitfcB |
Never too soon seeing as we’d like the look of it right now. |  |
| |
| Guffers prediction league on 00:51 - Jan 22 with 529 views | Guthrum |
Yes, it's getting to about the time when it becomes viable. |  |
| |
| Guffers prediction league on 16:06 - Jan 22 with 379 views | hoppy |
How does the 'expected' table work - to have Leicester second bottom... are they taking into account an expected points deduction at some point? |  |
| |
| Guffers prediction league on 16:12 - Jan 22 with 368 views | GavTWTD |
| Guffers prediction league on 16:06 - Jan 22 by hoppy |
How does the 'expected' table work - to have Leicester second bottom... are they taking into account an expected points deduction at some point? |
Yeah that doesn't make a lot of sense. Harsh on Hull too!
edit. Prediction at the start of the season I suppose
This post has been edited by an administrator |  |
| |
| Guffers prediction league on 16:13 - Jan 22 with 362 views | JakeITFC |
| Guffers prediction league on 16:06 - Jan 22 by hoppy |
How does the 'expected' table work - to have Leicester second bottom... are they taking into account an expected points deduction at some point? |
It is based on the points they would have expected to earn based on their performances (expected goals for and against). Effectively saying they are pretty rubbish. |  | | |
| Guffers prediction league on 16:13 - Jan 22 with 362 views | Kievthegreat |
| Guffers prediction league on 16:06 - Jan 22 by hoppy |
How does the 'expected' table work - to have Leicester second bottom... are they taking into account an expected points deduction at some point? |
Expected is based on xG and xGA and is a reflection on where their stats suggest they should be based on the games already played. Essentially Leicester have overperformed their xG and xGA and the 'average' team with those underlying stats would be 2nd bottom. |  | | |
| Guffers prediction league on 16:17 - Jan 22 with 343 views | Kievthegreat |
| Guffers prediction league on 16:12 - Jan 22 by GavTWTD |
Yeah that doesn't make a lot of sense. Harsh on Hull too!
edit. Prediction at the start of the season I suppose
This post has been edited by an administrator |
No, Hull are low because they've significantly outperformed their xG and xGA up to this point. | | | |
Login to get fewer ads
| Guffers prediction league on 16:20 - Jan 22 with 326 views | hoppy |
| Guffers prediction league on 16:13 - Jan 22 by Kievthegreat |
Expected is based on xG and xGA and is a reflection on where their stats suggest they should be based on the games already played. Essentially Leicester have overperformed their xG and xGA and the 'average' team with those underlying stats would be 2nd bottom. |
No, I think it's a case of me being an old dog, and this being a new trick - I still don't understand any of that, despite what I'm sure is a very good explanation of it. | |
| |
| Guffers prediction league on 17:08 - Jan 22 with 274 views | SaleAway |
| Guffers prediction league on 16:20 - Jan 22 by hoppy |
No, I think it's a case of me being an old dog, and this being a new trick - I still don't understand any of that, despite what I'm sure is a very good explanation of it. |
I found this on X - don't know how accurate it is, and if it is the same for all the expected models.
To understand its usefulness, it's helpful to understand how it is calculated.
In a basic approach, xPts is calculated by simulating each shot in a match.
For each shot, the model will generate a random number between 0 and 1. If the number is less than the value of the xG of that shot, it says it is a goal and adds to that game's simulation tally, and at the end compares the actual goal tallies.
If a team wins that simulated match they get 3 points, draw they get 1 point, and a loss they get zero.
Running that same simulation over many iterations (say 1000) gives the output of how often a team would have won, drawn, or lost, and then we can take the average of all the points they have accumulated in the simulations to get their expected points which will fall between 0 and 3.
Some more advanced models that are used will include things such as possession, who is taking the shot, and other factors as well. |  |
| |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
