| General election permutations 11:06 - Feb 10 with 1015 views | baxterbasics |
Sorry, another politics post.. but reading all the threads about the current Labour malaise as well as the Reform threat and the state of things in general got me thinking.
Is there not a scenario, if polls carry on as they are, where we might feasibly be looking at a CON-LAB coalition next time round?
Pure tribalism suggests surely not. But hear me out.
If current polls bear out there's a high probability of a hung parliament. Public opinion of the big two is shot to bits. They are bleeding out to Reform and Greens. Maybe comrade Corbyn's lot will add some disruption (without winning a single seat I suspect).
Scenario 1) Reform wins most seats but is far short of a majority.
Scenario 2) Labour (or less likely, the Tories) win most seats but no majority - Reform either 2nd or 3rd with a sizeable return.
I don't expect Greens to make a dent seats wise, though they may nick quite a lot of votes from Labour. Lib Dems will be about where they've always been the last few cycles, and not have enough seats to be kingmakers for either Lab or Con.
I don't believe Lab or Con will consider a coalition with Reform. Well, maybe the Cons, but if they are only 3rd place seats wise they might not be in that position. Both may be more interested in shutting Reform out if the maths work.
Which leaves only the option of the Lab-Con government. The centre of the two parties are, in my opinion, ideologically closer to each other than to either Reform or Greens. The Con right and Lab left wont like it. But I think survival instincts and access to power might sway the rest.
Still plenty of time for Reform to eat itself of course, and we might just get a rerun of 2010.
Thoughts peeps? Would most of us prefer this if it means keeping Farage out? |  |
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| General election permutations on 11:18 - Feb 10 with 965 views | positivity |
it may have to be a broader coalition than that, as things stand, obviously a lot can change in the next 3 years though.
wouldn't be keen on a narrow lab/con coalition, would prefer a wider coalition if the parties could be grown-up enough to act in the common good.
obviously, if push came to shove i'd accept a coalition to keep out the far right, as we did in the war. |  |
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| General election permutations on 11:23 - Feb 10 with 947 views | baxterbasics |
| General election permutations on 11:18 - Feb 10 by positivity |
it may have to be a broader coalition than that, as things stand, obviously a lot can change in the next 3 years though.
wouldn't be keen on a narrow lab/con coalition, would prefer a wider coalition if the parties could be grown-up enough to act in the common good.
obviously, if push came to shove i'd accept a coalition to keep out the far right, as we did in the war. |
Well Lib-Lab-Con might work too.
Imagine all the drama and squabbling over the agenda and ministerial posts though. Yikes.
Mess it up and it could prove to be the final death rattle of any or all the big three. | |
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| General election permutations on 11:29 - Feb 10 with 930 views | DJR |
Given that the rhetoric coming out of the Tories is not dissimilar, and Badenoch has made it clear people like Andy Street and Ruth Davidson are not welcome in her party, if any coalition or arrangement takes place (whether before or after the election), it will be between Reform and the Tories. |  | | |
| General election permutations on 11:32 - Feb 10 with 917 views | Blueschev |
I'd say a Conservative - Reform merger is far more likely than a Lab-Con coalition. The latter would see a mass exodus of party members for both sides, and be a gift to the far-right. |  | | |
| General election permutations on 11:34 - Feb 10 with 912 views | positivity |
| General election permutations on 11:29 - Feb 10 by DJR |
Given that the rhetoric coming out of the Tories is not dissimilar, and Badenoch has made it clear people like Andy Street and Ruth Davidson are not welcome in her party, if any coalition or arrangement takes place (whether before or after the election), it will be between Reform and the Tories. |
policy-wise there may be more similarities, but can't see badenoch and farage/jenrick playing nice!
also, in terms of polling, they'd still fall short of a majority (though a pre-election pact might push them over the line with fptp; yet another argument for bringing in pr before the next election!) | |
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| General election permutations on 11:35 - Feb 10 with 895 views | GlasgowBlue |
A Tory /Labour coalition would be fantastic purely for the meltdown on here.
Worth getting in the popcorn for that. |  |
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| General election permutations on 11:40 - Feb 10 with 869 views | Churchman |
Whatever they do it’ll be all about the Party a more particularly what’s in it for them individually.
The economy, facilitating better conditions and encouraging and representing the people, protecting them internally and against external threat? Not remotely interested.
This government deserves to be thrown out. In favour of who? The loonies named Reform? The corrupt tories who represent less than 1% that doesn’t include me?
None of the above. Count Binface for me.
Rant over. |  | | |
| General election permutations on 11:41 - Feb 10 with 863 views | Guthrum |
| General election permutations on 11:32 - Feb 10 by Blueschev |
I'd say a Conservative - Reform merger is far more likely than a Lab-Con coalition. The latter would see a mass exodus of party members for both sides, and be a gift to the far-right. |
If the Conservatives ever outright merged with Reform, it would massively benefit Labour. All the remaining moderate/One Nation/traditionalist supporters would depart, with a centre-right Labour their most likely destination (the LibDems are too amorphous and the Greens too odd). |  |
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| General election permutations on 11:41 - Feb 10 with 858 views | positivity |
| General election permutations on 11:35 - Feb 10 by GlasgowBlue |
A Tory /Labour coalition would be fantastic purely for the meltdown on here.
Worth getting in the popcorn for that. |
i think any coalition will have that potential, and therein lies the problem with uk politics! | |
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| General election permutations on 12:07 - Feb 10 with 789 views | Blueschev |
| General election permutations on 11:41 - Feb 10 by Guthrum |
If the Conservatives ever outright merged with Reform, it would massively benefit Labour. All the remaining moderate/One Nation/traditionalist supporters would depart, with a centre-right Labour their most likely destination (the LibDems are too amorphous and the Greens too odd). |
Up until recently I would've agreed with you, and I still hope you're right. But I see a country that has taken a massive rightward shift, with rhetoric that would have been unpalatable a decade ago now part of mainstream discourse. I would expect a fair few centre right Tories voted Labour in 2024, and would have no plans to do so again. | | | |
| General election permutations on 12:23 - Feb 10 with 750 views | leitrimblue |
Why would anyone think of voting Reform when they have the option of the Keir and Kemi dreamteam   |  | | |
| General election permutations on 13:03 - Feb 10 with 638 views | bournemouthblue |
We didn't get a unity government under CoVid so I can't see any situation where this is ever likely
As people say, much more likely a Con-Form coation versus a rainbow coalition of Lab-Lib-Green-SNP etc |  |
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| General election permutations on 13:14 - Feb 10 with 598 views | J2BLUE |
I can't see either side accepting a Prime Minister from the other side. |  |
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| General election permutations on 13:19 - Feb 10 with 578 views | Pinewoodblue |
Find it difficult to ignore the LibDem vote. They benefitted , as much as Labour, from the split in the right wing vote. You have to take a party with over 70 MPs seriously. They won’t be a pushover, like last time, if they are part of a coalition.
I know an election is years away but feel that tomorrow’s PMQs will shape what happens in the weeks ahead. A strong performance by Badenoch and a feeble effort from Starmer will be his undoing.
Labour rules on removing /replacing their leader are more difficult than those of Tories. No secret support, everything will be out in the open.
Think we should look at General Election permutations once the dust has settled. A lot csn happen in next two years especially if Labour have a stronger leadership. |  |
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| General election permutations on 14:12 - Feb 10 with 504 views | Swansea_Blue |
| General election permutations on 11:35 - Feb 10 by GlasgowBlue |
A Tory /Labour coalition would be fantastic purely for the meltdown on here.
Worth getting in the popcorn for that. |
I thought we’ve got one already. Baddum tish.
We need a Corbyn / Farage partnership for a proper blubfest. |  |
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| General election permutations on 15:17 - Feb 10 with 448 views | positivity |
| General election permutations on 14:12 - Feb 10 by Swansea_Blue |
I thought we’ve got one already. Baddum tish.
We need a Corbyn / Farage partnership for a proper blubfest. |
this one i could see happening, maybe with a side order of galloway! get it on pay-per-view
would make corbyn v sultana and lowe v farage look very dull... | |
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| General election permutations on 19:08 - Feb 10 with 351 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| General election permutations on 11:32 - Feb 10 by Blueschev |
I'd say a Conservative - Reform merger is far more likely than a Lab-Con coalition. The latter would see a mass exodus of party members for both sides, and be a gift to the far-right. |
Conservatives always used to do well out of pre-election "voting LibDem will allow in Labour in a LibDem-Labour coalition" even when LibDems and Labour stated they wouldn't do so. I wonder whether Labour saying "voting Reform will let in a Reform-Conservative coalition" would have the same effect on potential Labour voters who are looking at voting Reform.
It is all a long way away as yet and a lot can happen to change things ... not least the remote possibility that some effective reform of the voting system happens. |  |
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