By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions. We in turn value your personal details in accordance with our Privacy Policy.
Please log in or register. Registered visitors get fewer ads.
Now I was looking at the table thinking win 2 games in hand and we're two points off second place, right in it.
However I just watched a video from MattSB youtuber (link below)
Quite alarmed by the maths he gave. To get 2nd place he extrapolated that you'd need to reach 86 points, which is Boro containing at their current rate of PPG (he also said that since Hellberg took over their ppg is even higher than that.
He then showed what each team needs to do from this point to reach that target. In order for Ipswich to reach 86 points from 15 games left to play, we'd need 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses
It sounds very daunting when put like that. I think we will need to win probably 4 or 5 games in a row to achieve that.
Looking at our next 6 games, you'd say this has to be the chance to go on a winning run. They are all very winnable and you'd be targeting wins in all of them maybe bar tonight where a draw and good performance to steady the ship would be acceptable. I think there's a real possibility we can win 4 or ideally 5 of the next 6 with draws from the other 2, but any less than that and it's probably settling for playoffs now.
Video
4
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 11:52 - Feb 24 with 1121 views
2 points off assuming we win both the games in hand. Seen a lot of people just +6 to our total which is in no way a given.
Agree with the rest of your post though - feels to me like we are looking at needing something like the W's, D's and L's you've outlined to make the top 2. It's time for the squad to stand up and be counted now.
5
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 11:57 - Feb 24 with 1094 views
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 11:52 - Feb 24 by tractorboy1978
2 points off assuming we win both the games in hand. Seen a lot of people just +6 to our total which is in no way a given.
Agree with the rest of your post though - feels to me like we are looking at needing something like the W's, D's and L's you've outlined to make the top 2. It's time for the squad to stand up and be counted now.
Yeah, even if we do win the games in hand that still leaves a target of 8 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 13 games, still relatively daunting.
Squad definitely capable of it but if we waste this run of fixtures offering a great chance to get into top gear, and by that I mean probably anything less than 4 wins from 6, top 2 is cooked for me.
0
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 11:59 - Feb 24 with 1073 views
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 11:57 - Feb 24 by ElderGrizzly
We've 'only' lost 7 all season, so 3 in the remaining games would mean continuing 'as is' across a season, or even seeing a slight drop off in form.
It's very achievable.
It's the ratio of wins and draws that is more problematic. These away draws in particular simply have to become wins from now on. Home form is good enough as is
2
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 12:07 - Feb 24 with 1008 views
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 11:52 - Feb 24 by tractorboy1978
2 points off assuming we win both the games in hand. Seen a lot of people just +6 to our total which is in no way a given.
Agree with the rest of your post though - feels to me like we are looking at needing something like the W's, D's and L's you've outlined to make the top 2. It's time for the squad to stand up and be counted now.
Ben Bloom always say that you should give your points per game total for the games in hand. So 1.74 x 2 = 3.5 points from those two games as an average. Either rounded down to 3 or rounded up to 4. Definitely not 6.
FREE IRAN FROM THE MULLAHS - FREE PALESTINE FROM HAMAS - FREE LEBANON FROM HEZBOLLAH
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 12:14 - Feb 24 by GlasgowBlue
Ben Bloom always say that you should give your points per game total for the games in hand. So 1.74 x 2 = 3.5 points from those two games as an average. Either rounded down to 3 or rounded up to 4. Definitely not 6.
With that sort of thinking, how many points would Ben Bloom have realistically forecast for our two matches against Coventry in December based on both clubs PPG before we played them?
Matches are won and lost on football pitches and league positions are decided at the end of the season, otherwise we'd be content with simply doing computer simulations or stopping the season early after realising that we've seen enough matches in order to extrapolate the rest.
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 13:21 - Feb 24 by Pinewoodblue
Essential that Middlesbrough are not one of the lost games. Same could be said for games against Hull & Millwall.
This. We need to improve on our last 15 game form in the next 15. Turning a couple of losses into wins. We also need 2 of Boro Hull and Cov to achieve worse than their last 13 game form in their next 13. Boro, Hull and Millwall games ideally are must not lose games.
I’m sure the season has a twist or turn in store with the form books being ripped up by some teams - just hope that includes us!! In the positive direction.
0
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 13:45 - Feb 24 with 465 views
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 12:28 - Feb 24 by Cafe_Newman
With that sort of thinking, how many points would Ben Bloom have realistically forecast for our two matches against Coventry in December based on both clubs PPG before we played them?
Matches are won and lost on football pitches and league positions are decided at the end of the season, otherwise we'd be content with simply doing computer simulations or stopping the season early after realising that we've seen enough matches in order to extrapolate the rest.
I think you're being unfair here, he's specifically talking about how to account for games in hand when comparing league positions.
0
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 14:05 - Feb 24 with 379 views
I would imagine 99% of pundits, statisticians and supporters would have expected Middlesbrough to beat Oxford last weekend, probably by at least Two clear goals as well. A fair number would also have expected us to get a draw at Wrexham. Predicting anything is almost impossible, just do what we need to do first, worry about other’s after.
0
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 14:15 - Feb 24 with 344 views
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 13:55 - Feb 24 by bartyg
I think you're being unfair here, he's specifically talking about how to account for games in hand when comparing league positions.
You're right and I would say that's the most reasonable thing to do. You can't just assume winning games because they're in hand. 4 is probably a fair number of points to assume if you're looking at it from a statistical approach. A normalised table would therefore be:
We're off the pace but with so many games left to play anything can happen. We also have Boro in there which could be decisive either way. I think we need to go on a run of consecutive wins like we started at Coventry. Another run of 4 wins on the bounce would probably close that gap to 1 or both of the top 2.
Tonight it massive, especially as its followed by a number of games where we could back it up with more wins.
0
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 14:19 - Feb 24 with 331 views
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 12:28 - Feb 24 by Cafe_Newman
With that sort of thinking, how many points would Ben Bloom have realistically forecast for our two matches against Coventry in December based on both clubs PPG before we played them?
Matches are won and lost on football pitches and league positions are decided at the end of the season, otherwise we'd be content with simply doing computer simulations or stopping the season early after realising that we've seen enough matches in order to extrapolate the rest.
There is no great insight in in your post on how many points required for 2nd place. Obviously we are trying to look into the future here and the only way, other than complete guesswork is to use statistics over the season. The data for these statistics always will have anomalys but these are smoothed out over a large data set. In truth we probably don't need statistics to work out that we are dipping below the automatic promotion requirement. I also think the games in hand is a disadvantage psycologically as it leads to a complacency that we ' really ' have 6 points more. I think it is a reflection on how poor the teams have been in the Championship, that even at this stage a small improvement in form would get us across the line. It's tantalisingly close and we are annoyingly unable to grasp it.
1
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 14:19 - Feb 24 with 331 views
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 13:30 - Feb 24 by Illinoisblue
How many do Leicester need to stay up you think?
Haha, was waiting for one of the usual suspects to make that exact comment. No surprises it came from you and zero points for creativity.
Leicester gonna be fine now we have Rowett in thanks for the concern. Likely to be in a different division than Ipswich next year and I'm hoping it's leagues 1 and 2 respectively not 2 and 3.
0
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 14:53 - Feb 24 with 240 views
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 14:15 - Feb 24 by MrPotatoHead
You're right and I would say that's the most reasonable thing to do. You can't just assume winning games because they're in hand. 4 is probably a fair number of points to assume if you're looking at it from a statistical approach. A normalised table would therefore be:
We're off the pace but with so many games left to play anything can happen. We also have Boro in there which could be decisive either way. I think we need to go on a run of consecutive wins like we started at Coventry. Another run of 4 wins on the bounce would probably close that gap to 1 or both of the top 2.
Tonight it massive, especially as its followed by a number of games where we could back it up with more wins.
To be positive (as I always try to be) Saturdays game reminded me so much of the Charlton game and after that debacle we claimed 31 points from the next 15 games. That would put us on 86.
1
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 15:27 - Feb 24 with 171 views
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 11:52 - Feb 24 by tractorboy1978
2 points off assuming we win both the games in hand. Seen a lot of people just +6 to our total which is in no way a given.
Agree with the rest of your post though - feels to me like we are looking at needing something like the W's, D's and L's you've outlined to make the top 2. It's time for the squad to stand up and be counted now.
Our away form, is poor, so wouldn’t be surprised if we fail to beat Portsmouth. Hull at home is another tricky game.
0
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 15:53 - Feb 24 with 92 views
I always feel a good marker for automatic promotion is at least one 10 game block of W8 D1 L1. We have yet to manage one of these this season. We got very close until the last 2 results but are back to square one on this now. If we can finally manage one of these runs we might push Coventry and Boro close but it has to start either tonight or Saturday or we will end up in winning the final 10 games of the season territory.
0
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 15:56 - Feb 24 with 84 views
Points and results required to get 2nd place on 14:19 - Feb 24 by BouncebackIpswich
Haha, was waiting for one of the usual suspects to make that exact comment. No surprises it came from you and zero points for creativity.
Leicester gonna be fine now we have Rowett in thanks for the concern. Likely to be in a different division than Ipswich next year and I'm hoping it's leagues 1 and 2 respectively not 2 and 3.
Just embracing the two-club fandom you love, that’s all!
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
