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1. On whether the Iranian regime can be overthrown without ground force, former CIA chief David Petraeus says it "depends on who emerges". But he is "quite confident" that Donald Trump "does not want to do that".
2. British nationals transiting through Dubai and Doha are being advised to remain indoors in a secure location and avoid travelling outside if possible.
Some 76,000 British nationals in the Middle East have signed up to the UK government's "register your presence" scheme.
Most of them are understood to be holidaymakers in the United Arab Emirates or those in transit at the UAE's major hub airports.
The "register your presence" scheme allows British nationals in Bahrain, Israel, Kuwait, Palestine, Qatar and United Arab Emirates to get direct updates from the Foreign Office.
This is the first time the crisis response programme has covered more than one country.
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So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 18:12 - Mar 1 with 1318 views
So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 14:01 - Mar 1 by DJR
There's also the Sunni-Shiite divide which plays out with Iran, Iraq and Bahrain being majority Shiite countries and Hezbollah and the Houthis being Shiite, and with the rest of the Gulf states being Sunni majority and Sunni led.
The latter tend to support and be supported by the West, and the same is true of Bahrain although the Saudi leadership may have to tread a bit carefully given the Shiite uprising as part of the Arab Spring which was suppressed with the help of Saudi military intervention.
[Post edited 1 Mar 14:17]
This is a big part of it, most of the wars post Arab Spring have been proxy wars between Iran and Saudi to install sympathetic/allied governments for regions dominance. Iran’s ‘Axis of resistance’ whilst marketing themselves as an opposition to Israel have been very busy committing genocides against the Yemeni’s (Houthi group), and Syrian’s (Hezbollah).
Saudi were initially opposed to US intervention in Iran (it suits them to keep the Iranian regime in placed to keep them impoverished and opposed to the West). Apparently the Saudi’s were ‘persuaded’ to be more supportive of the attacks. It’s unlikely air strikes alone will topple the regime, unless there is armed resistance from the Iran people (who may well be out for revenge after the heinous slaughter of protesters.
It’s a complex one, at what point should regime change take olace. Aside from the 40k Iranians are suggesting were killed in the recent protests, Iran has also executed 1,000’s of innocent people every year. I suspect the US will do enough to severely weaken Isreal, then as wit Venezuela lose interest.
Interesting analysis from a piece in the Guardian. And the Telegraph is reporting that it is significant that JD Vance wasn't in the Mar-a-Lago war room.
"Barely 10 days before launching the war, he had hosted the inaugural meeting of his Board of Peace, which was supposedly going to resolve conflicts, not just in the Middle East but around the world.
That meeting brought leaders and senior officials from 27 disparate states, most of them autocracies, to Washington to praise Trump the peacemaker.
They heard Tony Blair, a living link to the Iraq debacle 23 years ago, declare Trump’s Middle East vision “the best – indeed the only – hope for Gaza, the region and the wider world”.
By then, however, most of Washington’s traditional allies in Europe and beyond had become deeply sceptical of Trump’s motives and stayed away.
The Board of Peace was sold to the UN security council in November as the only path to ending the slaughter in Gaza, but it had been clear long before the first missiles were fired at Iran that it was a bait-and-switch scam. The UN thought it was buying one thing but it was sold something quite different: a rival body to the security council, but one in which Trump would be in charge.
The attack on Iran is a clear violation of the UN charter, in any absence of any credible, imminent Iranian threat to the US. In an attempt at justification, Trump spoke in generalities, denouncing the Tehran leadership as “a vicious group of very hard, terrible people” and 47 years of enmity between the US and the Islamic Republic.
Over that half century, Iran has arguably never posed less of a threat than now, weakened both by the joint attack by the US and Israel last June that degraded its defences, and decades of sanctions combined with economic migration that brought mass protests on to the street.
On the Board of Peace, however, there is no requirement for Trump to justify himself. There are no rules other than those giving Trump the power to make them up as he goes along.
It has become increasingly clear that the board is not primarily a forum for resolving conflict, but a vehicle for the president’s political and financial interests. Those governments who signed on as board members now find themselves complicit in a war few of them want."
[Post edited 2 Mar 9:00]
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So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 09:01 - Mar 2 with 925 views
So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 10:46 - Mar 1 by Guthrum
It's the fine distinction between causes and triggers.
The USA has been looking to attack Iran for much of the last 47 years. Entirely on their own account - geopolitical balance, threats and interference, loss of an ally in 1979, humiliation over hostages and the failed rescue, revenge for the Beirut embassy and barracks bombings of the early 1980s. That is the cause.
Netanyahu and bin Salman's lobbying were merely the trigger which set rolling the ball already poised.
Similar to how the assassination in Sarajevo was the trigger for the First World War, but not its cause.
The irony in all of this is the fact that it was us and the US that overthrew the Shah, we essentially installed the Ayatollahs.
So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 06:07 - Mar 1 by Kropotkin123
It's more complex than just following the Saudis. The Saudis were against attacking Iran, but changed their position due to Trump and then lobbied him to match his threats, rather than roll them back. That's why the mention weeks, not that they've been lobbying for years.
Regieme change in Iran should see the end of decades of proxy wars, a loss of funding for militant groups in the middle east, and lessen the chances of nuclear proliferation. I support this and hope the Iranian people can overthrow the regeme with the help of these strikes.
I think that assessment underestimates the structural dynamics and variables at play in the region. I would be very surprised if regime change in Iran alone would end decades of entrenched conflict and proxy warfare.
The Middle East’s instability has never been driven by a single actor, but I would argue that a regime change and total overhaul of foreign and domestic policy in 'the only democracy in the Middle East' would have a far greater effect in ending the perpetual (and sickeningly profitable) state of war.
No, not at the moment
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So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 09:51 - Mar 2 with 853 views
So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 09:01 - Mar 2 by hype313
The irony in all of this is the fact that it was us and the US that overthrew the Shah, we essentially installed the Ayatollahs.
The US didn't overthrow the Shah. Just a year before his fall Carter was in Tehran pronouncing Iran as “an island of stability in one of the most troubled areas of the world”.
It was Carter's weakness and inaction which accelerated the Shah's downfall during the 1979 Revolution. Carter also underestimated Khomeini.
He certainly didn't overthrow the Shah.
FREE IRAN FROM THE MULLAHS - FREE PALESTINE FROM HAMAS - FREE LEBANON FROM HEZBOLLAH
I'm surprised that the people who spread fake news on here about Israel bombing the al-Ahli Hospital aren't on here voicing their moral outrage at the Iranians actually bombing a Palestinian hospital in Jerusalem yesterday.
Actually, I'm not surprised. It's been obvious what their motives were from the start.
FREE IRAN FROM THE MULLAHS - FREE PALESTINE FROM HAMAS - FREE LEBANON FROM HEZBOLLAH
So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 09:58 - Mar 2 by GlasgowBlue
I'm surprised that the people who spread fake news on here about Israel bombing the al-Ahli Hospital aren't on here voicing their moral outrage at the Iranians actually bombing a Palestinian hospital in Jerusalem yesterday.
Actually, I'm not surprised. It's been obvious what their motives were from the start.
If you're going to put these two incidents up against each other as though it presents some kind of decisive 1-0 moral victory to you, then it says a lot about how you frame this entire conflict.
94% of Gaza's 36 hospitals have been damaged or completely destroyed since 2023, and 1722 healthcare workers have been killed. This is on the most post a result of targeted attacks.
It's not exactly surprising that debris caused by an Iron Dome interception of a retaliatory Iranian missile could end up hitting a Palestinian building in occupied Jerusalem.
No, not at the moment
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So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 10:43 - Mar 2 with 754 views
So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 09:58 - Mar 2 by GlasgowBlue
I'm surprised that the people who spread fake news on here about Israel bombing the al-Ahli Hospital aren't on here voicing their moral outrage at the Iranians actually bombing a Palestinian hospital in Jerusalem yesterday.
Actually, I'm not surprised. It's been obvious what their motives were from the start.
Your own link says it was "debris" rather than the missile itself so it was probably not the intended target. Obviously Iran aren't just targeting military infrastructure which is clearly wrong but I really don't see the need to try and score points and start arguments based on your link.
SB
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So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 17:28 - Mar 3 with 546 views
So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 18:12 - Mar 1 by GlasgowBlue
Andrew Fox describes himself thus: "Former paratrooper 🟥🟩 Global conflicts, strategic and tactical analysis, conservative politics. Long-form at my Substack.
"My Substack is for people who want grown-up coverage of global conflicts and world politics. Reports from a researcher who goes to the front lines and brings you the truth behind the media spin."
There's very little "grown-up" about Andrew Fox as far as I can see.
Here's a proper grown-up (Yes, check him out on Wikipedia and you'll see he was way off the mark with regards to his predictions regarding the length of the war in Ukraine - but Wiki will also point out that he is former Senior Advisor to the United States Secretary of Defence).
What he says in this interview with Glenn Diesen will surprise most people here. (Again, check him out on wiki, a Norwegian Political scientist who Wiki paints as pro-Putin. Anyway, any pro-Russian stance is not on display in his interview of Macgregor).
It's an alternative view on the current goings-on in Iran and in my view is more qualified to talk knowledgeably on this topic than most. Particularly salient is his comment:
"This is the problem with us: we project our values, our thinking, our experience onto others." I believe we are all inclined to do that, and rather too often.
Ignore the sensationalist, clickbait video title, it's neither particularly representative of the video's overall content, nor my opinion.
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So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 19:34 - Mar 3 with 477 views
MRFF Inundated with Complaints of Gleeful Commanders Telling Troops Iran War is “Part of God’s Divine Plan” to Usher in the Return of Jesus Christ
“This morning our commander opened up the combat readiness status briefing by urging us to not be “afraid” as to what is happening with our combat operations in Iran right now. He urged us to tell our troops that this was “all part of God’s divine plan” and he specifically referenced numerous citations out of the Book of Revelation referring to Armageddon and the imminent return of Jesus Christ. He said that “President Trump has been anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon and mark his return to Earth.” — MRFF active duty NCO client, writing on behalf of themself and 15 other unit members
MRFF has received over 200 calls from more than 50 military installations across all the services since Saturday reporting similar disturbing pronouncements from their Christian zealot commanders.
EDIT: MRFF's proposed nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize is well worth reading.
MRFF Inundated with Complaints of Gleeful Commanders Telling Troops Iran War is “Part of God’s Divine Plan” to Usher in the Return of Jesus Christ
“This morning our commander opened up the combat readiness status briefing by urging us to not be “afraid” as to what is happening with our combat operations in Iran right now. He urged us to tell our troops that this was “all part of God’s divine plan” and he specifically referenced numerous citations out of the Book of Revelation referring to Armageddon and the imminent return of Jesus Christ. He said that “President Trump has been anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon and mark his return to Earth.” — MRFF active duty NCO client, writing on behalf of themself and 15 other unit members
MRFF has received over 200 calls from more than 50 military installations across all the services since Saturday reporting similar disturbing pronouncements from their Christian zealot commanders.
EDIT: MRFF's proposed nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize is well worth reading.
MRFF Inundated with Complaints of Gleeful Commanders Telling Troops Iran War is “Part of God’s Divine Plan” to Usher in the Return of Jesus Christ
“This morning our commander opened up the combat readiness status briefing by urging us to not be “afraid” as to what is happening with our combat operations in Iran right now. He urged us to tell our troops that this was “all part of God’s divine plan” and he specifically referenced numerous citations out of the Book of Revelation referring to Armageddon and the imminent return of Jesus Christ. He said that “President Trump has been anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon and mark his return to Earth.” — MRFF active duty NCO client, writing on behalf of themself and 15 other unit members
MRFF has received over 200 calls from more than 50 military installations across all the services since Saturday reporting similar disturbing pronouncements from their Christian zealot commanders.
EDIT: MRFF's proposed nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize is well worth reading.
MRFF Inundated with Complaints of Gleeful Commanders Telling Troops Iran War is “Part of God’s Divine Plan” to Usher in the Return of Jesus Christ
“This morning our commander opened up the combat readiness status briefing by urging us to not be “afraid” as to what is happening with our combat operations in Iran right now. He urged us to tell our troops that this was “all part of God’s divine plan” and he specifically referenced numerous citations out of the Book of Revelation referring to Armageddon and the imminent return of Jesus Christ. He said that “President Trump has been anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon and mark his return to Earth.” — MRFF active duty NCO client, writing on behalf of themself and 15 other unit members
MRFF has received over 200 calls from more than 50 military installations across all the services since Saturday reporting similar disturbing pronouncements from their Christian zealot commanders.
EDIT: MRFF's proposed nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize is well worth reading.
On the right, Judeo-Christian values are out and Christian nationalism is in
With Reform pushing the same narrative here. We’re not ready for it yet in the UK, but I worry given how impressionable/tractable a lot of the population are that we could be pushed in that direction.
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