| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 18:18 - Oct 22 with 1689 views | Ftnfwest |
About a sixth of population but over half the cases I think so much worse. Has been for a while. Netherlands bad as well |  | |  |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 18:22 - Oct 22 with 1686 views | homer_123 |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 18:18 - Oct 22 by Ftnfwest |
About a sixth of population but over half the cases I think so much worse. Has been for a while. Netherlands bad as well |
Yeah - posted a short while back that Belgium, France and Germany were struggling. Looks like Belgium is getter worse a lot quicker. |  |
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| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 18:35 - Oct 22 with 1644 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 18:22 - Oct 22 by homer_123 |
Yeah - posted a short while back that Belgium, France and Germany were struggling. Looks like Belgium is getter worse a lot quicker. |
On a per capita basis probably as bad as Lombardy at the early peak. If the UK had new cases at a similar rate it would be over 78,000 a day. |  |
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| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 18:38 - Oct 22 with 1628 views | gazzer1999 |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 18:22 - Oct 22 by homer_123 |
Yeah - posted a short while back that Belgium, France and Germany were struggling. Looks like Belgium is getter worse a lot quicker. |
Looks like Boris has a lot to answer for. |  | | |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 19:17 - Oct 22 with 1546 views | Guthrum |
Couple of days ago somebody pointed out to me an anomaly with the reports that the UK's current death rate is only just above the five-year average.
That five-year average includes 2018, when there was a major - but little reported - 'Flu outbreak, which, along with severe temperatures, killed tens of thousands of elderly people more than normal.
https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/urgent-care/flu-and-cold-weather-contributed-t
Edit: That's going to significantly skew the average. [Post edited 22 Oct 2020 19:21]
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| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 19:22 - Oct 22 with 1515 views | Ryorry |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 18:22 - Oct 22 by homer_123 |
Yeah - posted a short while back that Belgium, France and Germany were struggling. Looks like Belgium is getter worse a lot quicker. |
That's seriously scary, threat of health services & hospitals being overwhelmed leading to literally survival of the fittest. |  |
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| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 19:31 - Oct 22 with 1494 views | Bluesquid |
Well let's hope they are not counting positive cases in the same manner that the UK seem to be.
Positive test result on Tuesday = 1 case.
Positive test result on the following Friday same person then it's double bubble.
I'm sure our "free and independent media" will be on to this like a shot to ask all the relevant questions of those running the show.
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| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 19:44 - Oct 22 with 1436 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 19:31 - Oct 22 by Bluesquid |
Well let's hope they are not counting positive cases in the same manner that the UK seem to be.
Positive test result on Tuesday = 1 case.
Positive test result on the following Friday same person then it's double bubble.
I'm sure our "free and independent media" will be on to this like a shot to ask all the relevant questions of those running the show.
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So if someone tests positive and then deteriorates and needs hospitalisation and stayed for four weeks wonder how many positive tests they would have before being discharged.
Wonder if this skews track and trace results presumably all positive tests are passed to track and trace who presumably only make contact the first time. No doubt tests 2..3...4 etc are logged as no contact.
It is easy to blame the politicians but there is a level of incompetence below them. | |
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| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 19:47 - Oct 22 with 1412 views | DanTheMan |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 19:44 - Oct 22 by Pinewoodblue |
So if someone tests positive and then deteriorates and needs hospitalisation and stayed for four weeks wonder how many positive tests they would have before being discharged.
Wonder if this skews track and trace results presumably all positive tests are passed to track and trace who presumably only make contact the first time. No doubt tests 2..3...4 etc are logged as no contact.
It is easy to blame the politicians but there is a level of incompetence below them. |
It's very hard to tell whether this is actually a big issue without knowing how many people are testing positive in multiple reporting periods, especially consecutive ones. |  |
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| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 19:48 - Oct 22 with 1408 views | Bluesquid |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 19:43 - Oct 22 by DanTheMan |
An interesting point to cut off at.
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Within the reporting period Dan.
Which implies that they don’t compare duplication from one week to the next. | | | |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 19:50 - Oct 22 with 1396 views | Bluesquid |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 19:44 - Oct 22 by Pinewoodblue |
So if someone tests positive and then deteriorates and needs hospitalisation and stayed for four weeks wonder how many positive tests they would have before being discharged.
Wonder if this skews track and trace results presumably all positive tests are passed to track and trace who presumably only make contact the first time. No doubt tests 2..3...4 etc are logged as no contact.
It is easy to blame the politicians but there is a level of incompetence below them. |
One wonders where all the journalists are. | | | |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 20:11 - Oct 22 with 1335 views | DanTheMan |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 19:48 - Oct 22 by Bluesquid |
Within the reporting period Dan.
Which implies that they don’t compare duplication from one week to the next. |
That is correct. However it is a strange place to cut off. If one wanted to make the reverse point to what I assume this person is making, then I could just screenshot that part and say "look, they're trying to remove cases!".
But let's ignore that for the moment and actually look at the statistics. What we don't have any idea about is the number of times this happens in multiple reporting periods as to whether this is actually a genuinely serious issue or just a minor blip in the data that isn't really worth worrying about. Remember, this is not the daily case data we see, but the weekly reporting data that test and trace release.
Let's take a look at this graph:
This is taken from the latest release of the data, and whilst I can't make out the exact number I think we're at or just over 100,000 in the week. This is obviously substantially higher than in July when we had it in the 10,000 range. Now for the sake of argument lets say that 1% (and that's completely pulled out of thin air) of all those in there are duplicates of some kind. That doesn't actually make much of a difference to the situation. Neither would say 5% or 10% really. It still would be really bad.
But of course this probably doesn't really matter to you, because you've dropped something in here without making much of a point. So tell me, I assume you think they are doing this on purpose for some nefarious scheme to inflate the figures. Why do you think they are doing that? | |
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| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 20:20 - Oct 22 with 1315 views | Bluesquid |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 20:11 - Oct 22 by DanTheMan |
That is correct. However it is a strange place to cut off. If one wanted to make the reverse point to what I assume this person is making, then I could just screenshot that part and say "look, they're trying to remove cases!".
But let's ignore that for the moment and actually look at the statistics. What we don't have any idea about is the number of times this happens in multiple reporting periods as to whether this is actually a genuinely serious issue or just a minor blip in the data that isn't really worth worrying about. Remember, this is not the daily case data we see, but the weekly reporting data that test and trace release.
Let's take a look at this graph:
This is taken from the latest release of the data, and whilst I can't make out the exact number I think we're at or just over 100,000 in the week. This is obviously substantially higher than in July when we had it in the 10,000 range. Now for the sake of argument lets say that 1% (and that's completely pulled out of thin air) of all those in there are duplicates of some kind. That doesn't actually make much of a difference to the situation. Neither would say 5% or 10% really. It still would be really bad.
But of course this probably doesn't really matter to you, because you've dropped something in here without making much of a point. So tell me, I assume you think they are doing this on purpose for some nefarious scheme to inflate the figures. Why do you think they are doing that? |
The point is clear to all, this method of counting is completely illogical, will skew the data and erode trust.
Oh and if it's correct then it's not a strange place to cut off then is it? | | | |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 20:38 - Oct 22 with 1260 views | gazzer1999 |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 20:20 - Oct 22 by Bluesquid |
The point is clear to all, this method of counting is completely illogical, will skew the data and erode trust.
Oh and if it's correct then it's not a strange place to cut off then is it? |
My guess is to make you tow the line and abide by the rules. | | | |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 20:41 - Oct 22 with 1247 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 20:11 - Oct 22 by DanTheMan |
That is correct. However it is a strange place to cut off. If one wanted to make the reverse point to what I assume this person is making, then I could just screenshot that part and say "look, they're trying to remove cases!".
But let's ignore that for the moment and actually look at the statistics. What we don't have any idea about is the number of times this happens in multiple reporting periods as to whether this is actually a genuinely serious issue or just a minor blip in the data that isn't really worth worrying about. Remember, this is not the daily case data we see, but the weekly reporting data that test and trace release.
Let's take a look at this graph:
This is taken from the latest release of the data, and whilst I can't make out the exact number I think we're at or just over 100,000 in the week. This is obviously substantially higher than in July when we had it in the 10,000 range. Now for the sake of argument lets say that 1% (and that's completely pulled out of thin air) of all those in there are duplicates of some kind. That doesn't actually make much of a difference to the situation. Neither would say 5% or 10% really. It still would be really bad.
But of course this probably doesn't really matter to you, because you've dropped something in here without making much of a point. So tell me, I assume you think they are doing this on purpose for some nefarious scheme to inflate the figures. Why do you think they are doing that? |
No doubt Blue Badger can throw some light how frequently patients are tested. My mother was in Addenbrookes late Feb through to 9th March and was tested several times, sometimes 48 hours apart,, all negative. | |
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| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 20:42 - Oct 22 with 1245 views | DanTheMan |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 20:20 - Oct 22 by Bluesquid |
The point is clear to all, this method of counting is completely illogical, will skew the data and erode trust.
Oh and if it's correct then it's not a strange place to cut off then is it? |
It's not completely illogical if deduping across the other data is, for some technical reason, a significant task vs. a small amount of skewed data. Speaking as someone who does this kind of thing, I can imagine a few reasons why technically it might be difficult depending on how that aggregate the data.
Without the raw data to know how significant a problem it is, but as I outlined in the previous post even if you greatly exaggerated the potential figues, it still does nothing. It will only erode trust in people whose trust is already sceptical of every single thing about Covid so I don't think they give a monkeys.
Nice job completely ignoring all the substance of my post though. Always nice to engage with someone like that. | |
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| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 21:00 - Oct 22 with 1194 views | Bluesquid |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 20:42 - Oct 22 by DanTheMan |
It's not completely illogical if deduping across the other data is, for some technical reason, a significant task vs. a small amount of skewed data. Speaking as someone who does this kind of thing, I can imagine a few reasons why technically it might be difficult depending on how that aggregate the data.
Without the raw data to know how significant a problem it is, but as I outlined in the previous post even if you greatly exaggerated the potential figues, it still does nothing. It will only erode trust in people whose trust is already sceptical of every single thing about Covid so I don't think they give a monkeys.
Nice job completely ignoring all the substance of my post though. Always nice to engage with someone like that. |
"But as I outlined in the previous post even if you greatly exaggerated the potential figures, it still does nothing."
Well that depends on how much though doesn't it ? 1%, 5%, 10%, 25% perhaps 40% or more, who knows?
And that's where the media come into it, their job is to inquire, question and investigate methods used by those running the show, but where are they all?
But when you realise that the Government are a source of revenue for the media then the penny kind of drops.
Maybe The Guardian can take it up and question the Government re this counting method and request the complete data for public scrutiny. | | | |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 21:03 - Oct 22 with 1185 views | DanTheMan |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 21:00 - Oct 22 by Bluesquid |
"But as I outlined in the previous post even if you greatly exaggerated the potential figures, it still does nothing."
Well that depends on how much though doesn't it ? 1%, 5%, 10%, 25% perhaps 40% or more, who knows?
And that's where the media come into it, their job is to inquire, question and investigate methods used by those running the show, but where are they all?
But when you realise that the Government are a source of revenue for the media then the penny kind of drops.
Maybe The Guardian can take it up and question the Government re this counting method and request the complete data for public scrutiny. |
If you think it could be as high as 40% of the cases are duplicated cases across reporting periods then I really don't really think you're being entirely reasonable.
And once again, I'll ask, why do you think they would be purposefully inflating the figures? | |
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| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 21:40 - Oct 22 with 1106 views | Bluesquid |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 21:03 - Oct 22 by DanTheMan |
If you think it could be as high as 40% of the cases are duplicated cases across reporting periods then I really don't really think you're being entirely reasonable.
And once again, I'll ask, why do you think they would be purposefully inflating the figures? |
More cases more fear thus their hope is that more will take the vaccine.
Vaccine manufacturers will be over the moon with a larger return and so will those that enabled it all.
I didn't actually say 40%, i actually said who knows but what would you say a reasonable percentage of cases could be then? | | | |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 22:43 - Oct 22 with 1006 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 21:00 - Oct 22 by Bluesquid |
"But as I outlined in the previous post even if you greatly exaggerated the potential figures, it still does nothing."
Well that depends on how much though doesn't it ? 1%, 5%, 10%, 25% perhaps 40% or more, who knows?
And that's where the media come into it, their job is to inquire, question and investigate methods used by those running the show, but where are they all?
But when you realise that the Government are a source of revenue for the media then the penny kind of drops.
Maybe The Guardian can take it up and question the Government re this counting method and request the complete data for public scrutiny. |
Even if your plucked-out-of-thin air 40% of the previous 10,000 cases were then retested as positive in the next reporting period that would be 4,000 of the 100,000 in the next week.
Or in other words there are now 96,000 new cases rather than 100,000 new cases. It is not a massive over-inflation. Indeed, the bit cut off suggests the figures are under-reported in the first place so let's say there is another 0.5% to add back on, that would be 500 of those 4,000 cases to factor back in.
With the exponential growth that is a) expected; and b) clearly being demonstrated, these are the statistics we get. What will be interesting is how much the dip will be that follows half terms in a couple of weeks or so (although the Government will conveniently attribute it to their tier system working). |  |
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| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 23:40 - Oct 22 with 929 views | Bluesquid |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 22:43 - Oct 22 by Nthsuffolkblue |
Even if your plucked-out-of-thin air 40% of the previous 10,000 cases were then retested as positive in the next reporting period that would be 4,000 of the 100,000 in the next week.
Or in other words there are now 96,000 new cases rather than 100,000 new cases. It is not a massive over-inflation. Indeed, the bit cut off suggests the figures are under-reported in the first place so let's say there is another 0.5% to add back on, that would be 500 of those 4,000 cases to factor back in.
With the exponential growth that is a) expected; and b) clearly being demonstrated, these are the statistics we get. What will be interesting is how much the dip will be that follows half terms in a couple of weeks or so (although the Government will conveniently attribute it to their tier system working). |
Yeah, how about if you plucked-out-of-thin air 40% of the previous 1000 cases?
Or perhaps the previous 100 cases?
Be even less then, i mean they haven't been double counting stuff before have they?
"Tens of thousands of Covid-19 tests have been double-counted in the Government’s official tally, public health officials have admitted."
"The Department of Health and Social Care and Public Health England each confirmed the double-counting."
"This inflates the daily reported diagnostic test numbers by over 20 per cent, with that proportion being much higher earlier on in the crisis before home test kits were added to the daily totals."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/tens-thousands-cor
"Coronavirus: Government removes 1.3m tests from daily data after double-counting error"
"More than 1.3 million coronavirus tests have been removed from the government’s data on tests that have been made available, after an error led to them being counted twice."
"The 1,308,071 tests were double-counted after they were first included in figures for tests that were sent out to testing sites such as hospitals and care homes between 14 May and 11 August."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-testing-data-double-counti | | | |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 02:49 - Oct 23 with 861 views | BlueBadger |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 18:38 - Oct 22 by gazzer1999 |
Looks like Boris has a lot to answer for. |
It's Roger Irrelevant! He's completely hatstand! |  |
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| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 07:22 - Oct 23 with 771 views | gazzer1999 |
| Belgium now really struggling it seems on 02:49 - Oct 23 by BlueBadger |
It's Roger Irrelevant! He's completely hatstand! |
You took your time, always getting personal. Hope you have a pleasant day. | | | |
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