| Starmer out? There was actually a 3 point swing towards Labour 08:31 - May 9 with 951 views | ElderGrizzly |
If applied in a GE situation
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| Starmer out? There was actually a 3 point swing towards Labour on 08:34 - May 9 with 936 views | GlasgowBlue |
Two months before the 2017 general election, the local election vote share if applied to the GE would have given the Tories a bigger majority than the one Johnson currently has.
In reality she lost her majority.
It’s never wise to apply local election results to a GE scenario. It never works out the same way. [Post edited 9 May 2021 8:34]
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| Starmer out? There was actually a 3 point swing towards Labour on 08:46 - May 9 with 887 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Starmer out? There was actually a 3 point swing towards Labour on 08:34 - May 9 by GlasgowBlue |
Two months before the 2017 general election, the local election vote share if applied to the GE would have given the Tories a bigger majority than the one Johnson currently has.
In reality she lost her majority.
It’s never wise to apply local election results to a GE scenario. It never works out the same way. [Post edited 9 May 2021 8:34]
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Absolutely appreciate that and the tweeter goes on to make that exact point.
It just wasn’t as bad as is being made out for Labour either. But that doesn’t sell… | | | |
| Starmer out? There was actually a 3 point swing towards Labour on 09:14 - May 9 with 818 views | m14_blue |
| Starmer out? There was actually a 3 point swing towards Labour on 08:34 - May 9 by GlasgowBlue |
Two months before the 2017 general election, the local election vote share if applied to the GE would have given the Tories a bigger majority than the one Johnson currently has.
In reality she lost her majority.
It’s never wise to apply local election results to a GE scenario. It never works out the same way. [Post edited 9 May 2021 8:34]
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Perhaps Tories are always likely to perform better in local elections as their hardcore support are more likely to turn out? |  | | |
| Starmer out? There was actually a 3 point swing towards Labour on 09:20 - May 9 with 801 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Starmer out? There was actually a 3 point swing towards Labour on 09:14 - May 9 by m14_blue |
Perhaps Tories are always likely to perform better in local elections as their hardcore support are more likely to turn out? |
Not really. Labour absolutely blitzed the local elections when Blair was PM and leader of the opposition. There was a time that the lib Dens outperformed the parliamentary party at the local elections.
I think that the recent results are down to the entire nation being completely divided along the lines of class, ethnicity, colour, position on Brexit and nationalism.
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There is no longer a simple north south divide.
Edit. I’d also suggest that the Tories current dominance is built on sand. They re relying in votes from people who are not their natural supports. Fcuk them over and they will soon turn. Labour are far from finished as people like koonters has been claiming, [Post edited 9 May 2021 9:22]
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| Starmer out? There was actually a 3 point swing towards Labour on 09:40 - May 9 with 749 views | HotShotHamish |
That's a really desperate way to use stats to produce a result you are looking for.
To imply that there is a swing to labour based on comparing ward results aggregated against those with different boundaries and electorates is the most stupid take I've seen for ages.
Labour lost over 300 councillors and control of 7 councils. Once again it lost in areas for the 1st time ever.
Trying to convince yourselves it was a victory is a blinkered as it comes and reflects the pompous attitude of the current Labour Party, dominated by middle class graduate who believe they're better than the rest of us. | | | |
| Starmer out? There was actually a 3 point swing towards Labour on 09:47 - May 9 with 731 views | Guthrum |
| Starmer out? There was actually a 3 point swing towards Labour on 08:46 - May 9 by ElderGrizzly |
Absolutely appreciate that and the tweeter goes on to make that exact point.
It just wasn’t as bad as is being made out for Labour either. But that doesn’t sell… |
Altho such a 3-point swing still gets them nowhere near winning a General Election (or even being able to form a governing coalition). So not that encouraging, either. |  |
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| Starmer out? There was actually a 3 point swing towards Labour on 09:52 - May 9 with 721 views | tractordownsouth |
Two things I worry about from that though
1) Lib Dems will never get that much of a vote in a general election - it all depends if those voters will move to Labour or Tory.
2) The pace of realignment is taking place in the Tories favour. The swings in Hartlepool and Dudley are much bigger than they are in the south. Labour will gain seats like Wycombe and Truro and Falmouth in 2024 but it won't be enough. Especially as lots of the areas where the Tories have lost (such as Cambridgeshire) have big parliamentary majorities so will rely on a HUGE tactical vote.
However, as GB says, the Tories are also potentially at risk in future. If they don't improve things in areas like Hartlepool and Dudley, where they've been able to blame their own failures on a Labour MP/Labour Council then they won't have anywhere to hide. |  |
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| Starmer out? There was actually a 3 point swing towards Labour on 09:56 - May 9 with 701 views | J2BLUE |
Bit desperate isn't it? Based on thirty-something percent turnout? |  |
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| Starmer out? There was actually a 3 point swing towards Labour on 10:00 - May 9 with 697 views | HARRY10 |
Now the dust has settled a bit,the hysteria of the previous two days can be seen as that, hysteria.
No great gains in English councils - in fact, as John Curtice points out that if the delayed 2019 local elections are stripped out then it is pretty much business as usual.
Little change in Scotland with the Tories making no ground and in Wales labour achieved is best result, but overall there was no real change.
So apart from the totally unforeseen loss of a staunch remain candidate in one of the UK's largest Leave backing constituency. Leave voters voted for who they perceive as being pro leave - and vice versa with Remain.
However now the dog has barked in the night and the caravan has moved on we are back to the enquiries into sleaze, in all its varied forms, plus oncoming enquiry into why the UK had such a high death rate from Covid, and even the examination into Johnson's backhanders to his previous floozy are still to be concluded
Even little Timmy Robinson is waiting on yet another court verdict, and the 12 month 'ban' on East coast fishermen using Norways waters will provide for much conflict.
1 am much reminded of an early morning duel where one of the pair has fired early, and missed, b as the other stares back with the words
"Is that the best you;ve got ?"
appears it is | | | |
| Starmer out? There was actually a 3 point swing towards Labour on 10:09 - May 9 with 676 views | Barneycurley |
Rearranging the deckchairs.... |  |
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| Starmer out? There was actually a 3 point swing towards Labour on 10:16 - May 9 with 661 views | Barneycurley |
| Starmer out? There was actually a 3 point swing towards Labour on 10:00 - May 9 by HARRY10 |
Now the dust has settled a bit,the hysteria of the previous two days can be seen as that, hysteria.
No great gains in English councils - in fact, as John Curtice points out that if the delayed 2019 local elections are stripped out then it is pretty much business as usual.
Little change in Scotland with the Tories making no ground and in Wales labour achieved is best result, but overall there was no real change.
So apart from the totally unforeseen loss of a staunch remain candidate in one of the UK's largest Leave backing constituency. Leave voters voted for who they perceive as being pro leave - and vice versa with Remain.
However now the dog has barked in the night and the caravan has moved on we are back to the enquiries into sleaze, in all its varied forms, plus oncoming enquiry into why the UK had such a high death rate from Covid, and even the examination into Johnson's backhanders to his previous floozy are still to be concluded
Even little Timmy Robinson is waiting on yet another court verdict, and the 12 month 'ban' on East coast fishermen using Norways waters will provide for much conflict.
1 am much reminded of an early morning duel where one of the pair has fired early, and missed, b as the other stares back with the words
"Is that the best you;ve got ?"
appears it is |
Hysteria? Are you for real? The facts were laid bare and now the dust has settled the OP as example are clinging on to any desperate stat they can get their hands on.
I guess there lies the problem, whilst people like you and the OP "convince" yourselves all is red rosey in fact the country has changed and labour hasn't. | |
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| Starmer out? There was actually a 3 point swing towards Labour on 10:37 - May 9 with 615 views | Darth_Koont |
In other news, the UK is set to become a net exporter of citrus fruits as apples are re-classified as “oranges of the North”. |  |
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| Starmer out? There was actually a 3 point swing towards Labour on 11:47 - May 9 with 546 views | m14_blue |
| Starmer out? There was actually a 3 point swing towards Labour on 09:20 - May 9 by GlasgowBlue |
Not really. Labour absolutely blitzed the local elections when Blair was PM and leader of the opposition. There was a time that the lib Dens outperformed the parliamentary party at the local elections.
I think that the recent results are down to the entire nation being completely divided along the lines of class, ethnicity, colour, position on Brexit and nationalism.
.
There is no longer a simple north south divide.
Edit. I’d also suggest that the Tories current dominance is built on sand. They re relying in votes from people who are not their natural supports. Fcuk them over and they will soon turn. Labour are far from finished as people like koonters has been claiming, [Post edited 9 May 2021 9:22]
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Fair enough, that’s interesting.
Yeah, your last paragraph intrigued me, the tories are either going to have to completely change their whole raison d’etre (in which case - what’s the point, they may as well just be Labour) or their current popularity is inevitably very time limited.
Fascinating, if worrying, times. | | | |
| Starmer out? There was actually a 3 point swing towards Labour on 12:14 - May 9 with 519 views | J2BLUE |
| Starmer out? There was actually a 3 point swing towards Labour on 10:37 - May 9 by Darth_Koont |
In other news, the UK is set to become a net exporter of citrus fruits as apples are re-classified as “oranges of the North”. |
That is genius. I would definitely buy more oranges of the north if they did that. | |
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