| World order changing....... 08:10 - Feb 15 with 3608 views | Pippin1970 |
Whatever happens in Ukraine, China and Iran are closely monitoring. Noticed China after Taiwan and Iran considering other steps. Its going to be a game changer one way or another. |  | | |  |
| World order changing....... on 09:29 - Feb 15 with 2328 views | Guthrum |
Taiwan is a different scenario. There are specific and long-standing pledges by the US to defend the island. Moreover, that region (particularly the South China Sea) is a core area for Washington's current foreign policy. None of that is the case with Ukraine.
Beijing would be extremely foolish to think a determination not to commit military forces in the Ukraine situation implies the same for Taiwan.
An inherent weakness (if you want to call it that) of modern democracies when facing authoritarian regimes is that the former will usually go to great lengths to avoid war. Their leaders are regularly accountable to the citizenry, whose sons and daughters will die in the fighting. They also have to carry the majority of the political body with them. Whereas the authoritarian ruler makes the decision themselves, without fear of electoral consequences.
That is perceived as weakness by the authoritarian and leads them into thinking they can push things and the democracies (particularly where they are not unified) will always back down. [Post edited 15 Feb 2022 9:33]
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| World order changing....... on 09:48 - Feb 15 with 2272 views | ElephantintheRoom |
Relax in the knowledge that Global Britain will be leading the way in the new world order | |
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| [Redacted] on 10:08 - Feb 15 with 2232 views | victorywilhappen |
| World order changing....... on 09:29 - Feb 15 by Guthrum |
Taiwan is a different scenario. There are specific and long-standing pledges by the US to defend the island. Moreover, that region (particularly the South China Sea) is a core area for Washington's current foreign policy. None of that is the case with Ukraine.
Beijing would be extremely foolish to think a determination not to commit military forces in the Ukraine situation implies the same for Taiwan.
An inherent weakness (if you want to call it that) of modern democracies when facing authoritarian regimes is that the former will usually go to great lengths to avoid war. Their leaders are regularly accountable to the citizenry, whose sons and daughters will die in the fighting. They also have to carry the majority of the political body with them. Whereas the authoritarian ruler makes the decision themselves, without fear of electoral consequences.
That is perceived as weakness by the authoritarian and leads them into thinking they can push things and the democracies (particularly where they are not unified) will always back down. [Post edited 15 Feb 2022 9:33]
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[Redacted] |  | | |
| World order changing....... on 10:20 - Feb 15 with 2195 views | Guthrum |
See my replies to Bankster in another thread.
Also, Russia has stated throughout that it has no intention of invading, thus there is no face to lose on that count. Apparently reporting in Russia about this situation has been extremely low-key, unlike prior to the absorbtion of the Crimea.
A lot of diplomatic attention has been paid to Moscow and, while their published demands haven't been satisfied, there will doubtless have been progress on international security frameworks, some of which had been allowed to lapse during Trump's time. So they can point to those achievements. Putin can be satisfied that he is being taken seriously, too.
Not to mention the very public humiliation of some old enemies (the UK).
Bearing in mind Putin's training in the old KGB, it is much more in line with their methods to raise and lower the tension repeatedly over time and wait for opponents' guard to drop and the fruit to fall into their laps, rather than going in guns blazing from the off. | |
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| [Redacted] on 10:47 - Feb 15 with 2131 views | victorywilhappen |
| World order changing....... on 10:20 - Feb 15 by Guthrum |
See my replies to Bankster in another thread.
Also, Russia has stated throughout that it has no intention of invading, thus there is no face to lose on that count. Apparently reporting in Russia about this situation has been extremely low-key, unlike prior to the absorbtion of the Crimea.
A lot of diplomatic attention has been paid to Moscow and, while their published demands haven't been satisfied, there will doubtless have been progress on international security frameworks, some of which had been allowed to lapse during Trump's time. So they can point to those achievements. Putin can be satisfied that he is being taken seriously, too.
Not to mention the very public humiliation of some old enemies (the UK).
Bearing in mind Putin's training in the old KGB, it is much more in line with their methods to raise and lower the tension repeatedly over time and wait for opponents' guard to drop and the fruit to fall into their laps, rather than going in guns blazing from the off. |
[Redacted] | | | |
| World order changing....... on 10:52 - Feb 15 with 2111 views | blueasfook |
I think it's just Russian brinkmanship. Old Vlad wants a few concessions from NATO so he is sabre rattling by threatening to invade Ukraine.
This is the Cuban missile crisis all over again. I read reports this morning that the Russians are pulling some troops back? I really dont think invading Ukraine is in Russia's interest. Ukraine are no pushover and will give them a fight. |  |
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| [Redacted] on 11:05 - Feb 15 with 2056 views | victorywilhappen |
| World order changing....... on 10:52 - Feb 15 by blueasfook |
I think it's just Russian brinkmanship. Old Vlad wants a few concessions from NATO so he is sabre rattling by threatening to invade Ukraine.
This is the Cuban missile crisis all over again. I read reports this morning that the Russians are pulling some troops back? I really dont think invading Ukraine is in Russia's interest. Ukraine are no pushover and will give them a fight. |
[Redacted] | | | |
| World order changing....... on 11:09 - Feb 15 with 2027 views | Guthrum |
RT is for external consumption, not domestic. So the message does seem to be one of de-escalation (or, more accurately, "What were you making such a fuss for?").
Pulling out of Belarus is significant strategically, as that is the northern flank, the quickest route to Kiev and the possibility of avoiding the major obstacle of the Dnieper River. Attacking only in the east would be a much more limited operation.
Belarus might be happy enough to host sabre-rattling, but providing a base for an attack is a big step further and would open them up to further measures (e.g. sanctions).
Additionally, one cannot be entirely sure of the timeline and order of troop movements by the time that has filtered through to the media. Or, indeed, if sattelite snapshots of loaded trains are moving towards or away from the front. | |
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| World order changing....... on 11:10 - Feb 15 with 2029 views | chicoazul |
You’re not asking me so I beg your pardon but there will be no attack. Putin isn’t mad, us and the Yanks would kneecap him and all his mates financially which is all they really care about. It’s just the Great Game. |  |
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| World order changing....... on 11:22 - Feb 15 with 1988 views | Guthrum |
There is now a bridge (road and rail) across the Kerch Strait between Russia proper and Crimea. | |
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| [Redacted] on 11:38 - Feb 15 with 1942 views | victorywilhappen |
| World order changing....... on 11:10 - Feb 15 by chicoazul |
You’re not asking me so I beg your pardon but there will be no attack. Putin isn’t mad, us and the Yanks would kneecap him and all his mates financially which is all they really care about. It’s just the Great Game. |
[Redacted] | | | |
| [Redacted] on 11:41 - Feb 15 with 1933 views | victorywilhappen |
| World order changing....... on 11:22 - Feb 15 by Guthrum |
There is now a bridge (road and rail) across the Kerch Strait between Russia proper and Crimea. |
[Redacted] | | | |
| World order changing....... on 12:30 - Feb 15 with 1853 views | Guthrum |
They have a gas pipeline, but not, as far as I can tell, a freshwater one. Tho it wouldn't surprise me if such a thing had been included in the bridge structure. | |
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| World order changing....... on 12:43 - Feb 15 with 1792 views | Plums |
| World order changing....... on 11:10 - Feb 15 by chicoazul |
You’re not asking me so I beg your pardon but there will be no attack. Putin isn’t mad, us and the Yanks would kneecap him and all his mates financially which is all they really care about. It’s just the Great Game. |
It's really interesting (and terrifying) to see all the focus on the military build up but nobody as far as I can see is mentioning cyber which would be a major part in any conflict. Moving troops into an area is fine but if a hack wipes out your comms and guidance systems, they're very quickly going to become blind on the ground. [Post edited 15 Feb 2022 13:08]
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| World order changing....... on 13:32 - Feb 15 with 1698 views | Guthrum |
| World order changing....... on 12:43 - Feb 15 by Plums |
It's really interesting (and terrifying) to see all the focus on the military build up but nobody as far as I can see is mentioning cyber which would be a major part in any conflict. Moving troops into an area is fine but if a hack wipes out your comms and guidance systems, they're very quickly going to become blind on the ground. [Post edited 15 Feb 2022 13:08]
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Cyber is part of military nowadays (as things like radio and radar jamming were before). The problem there is that buildup is a lot harder to observe and can wait quietly in place for years, ready to activate.
I suspect strongly that defences will have been beefed up in that sector, too. Just not as obviously as planeloads of anti-tank missiles. | |
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| World order changing....... on 13:37 - Feb 15 with 1684 views | bazza |
| World order changing....... on 11:22 - Feb 15 by Guthrum |
There is now a bridge (road and rail) across the Kerch Strait between Russia proper and Crimea. |
From annexing crimea to building a bridge which is the longest in Europe in 4 years…, takes longer than that to get planning on anything bigger than 3m3 in you back garden in this country. There’s a really good video on YouTube of them building it. Putin aside, those Russians can build stuff . |  | | |
| World order changing....... on 13:42 - Feb 15 with 1654 views | Plums |
| World order changing....... on 13:32 - Feb 15 by Guthrum |
Cyber is part of military nowadays (as things like radio and radar jamming were before). The problem there is that buildup is a lot harder to observe and can wait quietly in place for years, ready to activate.
I suspect strongly that defences will have been beefed up in that sector, too. Just not as obviously as planeloads of anti-tank missiles. |
And that's what's really interesting. Who knows what's happening out there in the ether waiting to be activated. That particular East/ West conflict is a daily occurrence. How much retaliation could happen out of sight and what might be the target from an economic and infra perspective; never mind military DoS attacks. | |
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| World order changing....... on 13:47 - Feb 15 with 1643 views | ElderGrizzly |
| World order changing....... on 10:20 - Feb 15 by Guthrum |
See my replies to Bankster in another thread.
Also, Russia has stated throughout that it has no intention of invading, thus there is no face to lose on that count. Apparently reporting in Russia about this situation has been extremely low-key, unlike prior to the absorbtion of the Crimea.
A lot of diplomatic attention has been paid to Moscow and, while their published demands haven't been satisfied, there will doubtless have been progress on international security frameworks, some of which had been allowed to lapse during Trump's time. So they can point to those achievements. Putin can be satisfied that he is being taken seriously, too.
Not to mention the very public humiliation of some old enemies (the UK).
Bearing in mind Putin's training in the old KGB, it is much more in line with their methods to raise and lower the tension repeatedly over time and wait for opponents' guard to drop and the fruit to fall into their laps, rather than going in guns blazing from the off. |
As with most things with Russia, you might be watching the left hand behave but the right hand is the one you should be worrying about.
Most FCO type discussions with Russia are in fact quite cordial nowadays (Liz Truss excepting), but we there is no trust there either side for good reason. |  | | |
| World order changing....... on 13:51 - Feb 15 with 1631 views | Guthrum |
| World order changing....... on 13:37 - Feb 15 by bazza |
From annexing crimea to building a bridge which is the longest in Europe in 4 years…, takes longer than that to get planning on anything bigger than 3m3 in you back garden in this country. There’s a really good video on YouTube of them building it. Putin aside, those Russians can build stuff . |
The project had been planned (and agreed between Russia and Ukraine) some time before that, altho those crossings were on a slightly different route.
But yes, an impressive engineering feat and very rapidly completed. | |
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| World order changing....... on 13:54 - Feb 15 with 1618 views | bazza |
| World order changing....... on 13:51 - Feb 15 by Guthrum |
The project had been planned (and agreed between Russia and Ukraine) some time before that, altho those crossings were on a slightly different route.
But yes, an impressive engineering feat and very rapidly completed. |
Surprised they didn’t do a Yorkie advert on it. | | | |
| World order changing....... on 14:03 - Feb 15 with 1605 views | Guthrum |
| World order changing....... on 13:47 - Feb 15 by ElderGrizzly |
As with most things with Russia, you might be watching the left hand behave but the right hand is the one you should be worrying about.
Most FCO type discussions with Russia are in fact quite cordial nowadays (Liz Truss excepting), but we there is no trust there either side for good reason. |
It's one of those curious situations left over from our Great Power era, where Britain is still seen as a particular target for ire, ridicule and distrust, out of proportion with our current strength and influence. Same in Iran. | |
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| World order changing....... on 14:05 - Feb 15 with 1594 views | GlasgowBlue |
| World order changing....... on 10:20 - Feb 15 by Guthrum |
See my replies to Bankster in another thread.
Also, Russia has stated throughout that it has no intention of invading, thus there is no face to lose on that count. Apparently reporting in Russia about this situation has been extremely low-key, unlike prior to the absorbtion of the Crimea.
A lot of diplomatic attention has been paid to Moscow and, while their published demands haven't been satisfied, there will doubtless have been progress on international security frameworks, some of which had been allowed to lapse during Trump's time. So they can point to those achievements. Putin can be satisfied that he is being taken seriously, too.
Not to mention the very public humiliation of some old enemies (the UK).
Bearing in mind Putin's training in the old KGB, it is much more in line with their methods to raise and lower the tension repeatedly over time and wait for opponents' guard to drop and the fruit to fall into their laps, rather than going in guns blazing from the off. |
Putin has done well to flush out who is willing to stand up to him and who will break ranks pretty quickly next time he flexes his muscles. |  |
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| World order changing....... on 14:14 - Feb 15 with 1571 views | Guthrum |
| World order changing....... on 14:05 - Feb 15 by GlasgowBlue |
Putin has done well to flush out who is willing to stand up to him and who will break ranks pretty quickly next time he flexes his muscles. |
I'd say things have been pretty well united. A strong diplomatic response, but not going OTT (e.g. by sending in combat troops).
Germany has been accused of being a bit quiet, but he's a very new man in the job and has nonetheless taken a part in shuttling round the capitals for talks. | |
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| World order changing....... on 14:22 - Feb 15 with 1566 views | blueasfook |
| World order changing....... on 13:47 - Feb 15 by ElderGrizzly |
As with most things with Russia, you might be watching the left hand behave but the right hand is the one you should be worrying about.
Most FCO type discussions with Russia are in fact quite cordial nowadays (Liz Truss excepting), but we there is no trust there either side for good reason. |
Good point. When this crisis is over, my main takeaway will be Liz Truss needs to go. She made a right tit of herself in Moscow. | |
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| World order changing....... on 15:46 - Feb 15 with 1134 views | WeWereZombies |
Sorry to be the one to break this to you but the World order changed in 1972 when Nixon visited China.
Just you wait until you hear about BRICS and MINTS... |  |
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