| If the tin foil hatted 'anti-vax' 'covid is same as winter flu' mob had focussed on 13:47 - Aug 19 with 2000 views | unstableblue |
..... on whether the balance of risk, cost and impact of Country Wide Lockdown was being judged effectively I think we would have had a much more sensible debate
But these judgements are very very hard, and if you ask the families of 100ks of deaths in care homes from Covid they'd have a different view.. and of course what if Covid long term effects* had been much worse and we'd let is flood the population the government would have been damned
* The impact of long term Covid is still hotly debated and not understood |  |
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| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 13:48 - Aug 19 with 1992 views | DanTheMan |
"Of course those who put forward that any of this was up for debate were attacked by the usual suspects."
Because putting that in is going to help matters 
On subject, I don't think anyone was of the opinion there were no downsides to lockdown(s), just that they were perhaps the best of a bad situation.
Think of it this way, do you think there would be no backlog if we'd have just not bothered and let it spread on mass, especially when we didn't have vaccines to prevent serious illnesses? Hospitals would have been completely overwhelmed which would have also caused a backlog.
Personally I think a long running public health emergency was probably going to cause a backlog one way or another. It doesn't help that we've underfunded the NHS for some time. |  |
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| If the tin foil hatted 'anti-vax' 'covid is same as winter flu' mob had focussed on 13:50 - Aug 19 with 1961 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| If the tin foil hatted 'anti-vax' 'covid is same as winter flu' mob had focussed on 13:47 - Aug 19 by unstableblue |
..... on whether the balance of risk, cost and impact of Country Wide Lockdown was being judged effectively I think we would have had a much more sensible debate
But these judgements are very very hard, and if you ask the families of 100ks of deaths in care homes from Covid they'd have a different view.. and of course what if Covid long term effects* had been much worse and we'd let is flood the population the government would have been damned
* The impact of long term Covid is still hotly debated and not understood |
The care homes was massively mismanaged from the jump particularly in the UK and New York as it goes. That had little to do with lockdowns after the first wave though. |  | | |
| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 13:56 - Aug 19 with 1887 views | StokieBlue |
It's an important study but lets have some context here.
As it states, it's possible that 1000 people per week over the excess-deaths are dying at the moment but then it doesn't specifically blame lockdowns of which there hasn't been one for 15 months now. What it does mention is backlogs may be a contributing factor which whilst being part of the issues with lockdowns are also driven by a complete lack of investment in the NHS.
It's awful that these deaths are occurring but once again for context, when the lockdown was required there were ~3000 people per day dying even with restrictive measures in place (~27 times the level being recorded here), without a lockdown it would have been far higher than that.
Lockdowns were needed, especially early on when there simply wasn't an effective treatment and Alpha and Delta were causing havoc with peoples lungs (many of whom still have issues). Any other stance would have condemned far more people to their deaths. It's important not to place the current Covid context and retrospectively apply it to the conditions early in the pandemic.
SB |  | | |
| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 13:59 - Aug 19 with 1864 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 13:48 - Aug 19 by DanTheMan |
"Of course those who put forward that any of this was up for debate were attacked by the usual suspects."
Because putting that in is going to help matters
On subject, I don't think anyone was of the opinion there were no downsides to lockdown(s), just that they were perhaps the best of a bad situation.
Think of it this way, do you think there would be no backlog if we'd have just not bothered and let it spread on mass, especially when we didn't have vaccines to prevent serious illnesses? Hospitals would have been completely overwhelmed which would have also caused a backlog.
Personally I think a long running public health emergency was probably going to cause a backlog one way or another. It doesn't help that we've underfunded the NHS for some time. |
Just stating the truth - people weren’t Covid skeptics or deniers for debating policy but a lot accusations were thrown around.
There was an 8 pager about locksdowns this very year. A fair bit of data makes interesting reading now. Of course appointments etc we’re going to be canceled in 2020 at the start, my issue was how long this went on as more information was gathered about the virus and how deadly it was sub sections of the population. Then you had massive calls for it again during omicron despite the evidence from South Africa and SAGE look rather daft with what they were suggesting and throwing around at that time
It should just be a warning in the future that everything needs to be carefully balanced and considered is all I’m saying. | | | |
| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:02 - Aug 19 with 1829 views | BlueBadger |
Nobody ever touted it as a 'good' option. Just the least worst. The alternative was let potentially millions die as services became hopelessly overwhelmed.
There was always going to be fallout, sadly. [Post edited 19 Aug 2022 14:08]
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| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:05 - Aug 19 with 1794 views | DanTheMan |
| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 13:59 - Aug 19 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
Just stating the truth - people weren’t Covid skeptics or deniers for debating policy but a lot accusations were thrown around.
There was an 8 pager about locksdowns this very year. A fair bit of data makes interesting reading now. Of course appointments etc we’re going to be canceled in 2020 at the start, my issue was how long this went on as more information was gathered about the virus and how deadly it was sub sections of the population. Then you had massive calls for it again during omicron despite the evidence from South Africa and SAGE look rather daft with what they were suggesting and throwing around at that time
It should just be a warning in the future that everything needs to be carefully balanced and considered is all I’m saying. |
"It should just be a warning in the future that everything needs to be carefully balanced and considered is all I’m saying."
It... was? Do you think the people on TWTD were making the decisions?
Most people arguing were just saying it was the best option available. That's an acceptable thing to argue. | |
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| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:11 - Aug 19 with 1690 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:02 - Aug 19 by BlueBadger |
Nobody ever touted it as a 'good' option. Just the least worst. The alternative was let potentially millions die as services became hopelessly overwhelmed.
There was always going to be fallout, sadly. [Post edited 19 Aug 2022 14:08]
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Morning, I saw you pop up and was expecting a much more namey post than that.
Would it be a fair assessment that people who were challenging these later on during the pandemic, say last Christmas, had a little more credibility of the debates they were putting forward than that what was perhaps perceived by others? | | | |
| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:16 - Aug 19 with 1662 views | BlueBadger |
| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:11 - Aug 19 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
Morning, I saw you pop up and was expecting a much more namey post than that.
Would it be a fair assessment that people who were challenging these later on during the pandemic, say last Christmas, had a little more credibility of the debates they were putting forward than that what was perhaps perceived by others? |
We didn't have a lockdown Christmas 2021, Trumpy. Christmas 2020 however, would have been even more catastrophic than it already was. We were struggling with capacity, demand on ITU beds and exhausted, traumatised staff as it was. Letting the bodies pile high as dear old 200 pounds of racist mince in a 100 pound suit would have liked to do would again, have completely overwhelmed services.
In the case of both major lockdowns in the UK, doing it sooner would have probably saved lives and been shorter with considerably less disruption to services. [Post edited 20 Aug 2022 21:10]
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| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:19 - Aug 19 with 1607 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:05 - Aug 19 by DanTheMan |
"It should just be a warning in the future that everything needs to be carefully balanced and considered is all I’m saying."
It... was? Do you think the people on TWTD were making the decisions?
Most people arguing were just saying it was the best option available. That's an acceptable thing to argue. |
Well to my knowledge no one on TWTD makes decisions but politics is debated 24/7 so not quite sure on your point there. It is an acceptable thing to argue but apparently other points of view were not in relating to this topic anyway. Outside of other obvious factors it was always scared me in regards to the lack of options for people who wanted to get medical check ups, especially when it came to screenings etc. I think there should have been a push to get back up and running at a much more rapid rate. | | | |
| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:21 - Aug 19 with 1588 views | BlueBadger |
| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:19 - Aug 19 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
Well to my knowledge no one on TWTD makes decisions but politics is debated 24/7 so not quite sure on your point there. It is an acceptable thing to argue but apparently other points of view were not in relating to this topic anyway. Outside of other obvious factors it was always scared me in regards to the lack of options for people who wanted to get medical check ups, especially when it came to screenings etc. I think there should have been a push to get back up and running at a much more rapid rate. |
We could have only opened earlier had we been quicker in locking down earlier and cancelling super spreader events like the Cheltenham festival rather than waiting for covid to reach the levels it did.
For both major waves in the UK, earlier, decisive action would have saved lives AND livelihoods. [Post edited 19 Aug 2022 14:23]
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| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:21 - Aug 19 with 1590 views | Illinoisblue |
One amusing* covid side note that happened to me this week. Started a new job and bloke in the office comes over to say hello. I get up to shake his hand and he says “sorry, I don’t do handshakes right now. I was a close contact to 3 people who just tested positive after a family gathering at the weekend” Won’t do hand shakes, will stand by my desk and breathe in my space for about five minutes.
* actually not amusing if I get covid from him |  |
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| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:27 - Aug 19 with 1510 views | DanTheMan |
| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:19 - Aug 19 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
Well to my knowledge no one on TWTD makes decisions but politics is debated 24/7 so not quite sure on your point there. It is an acceptable thing to argue but apparently other points of view were not in relating to this topic anyway. Outside of other obvious factors it was always scared me in regards to the lack of options for people who wanted to get medical check ups, especially when it came to screenings etc. I think there should have been a push to get back up and running at a much more rapid rate. |
Politics is debated because we get a general say through voting. The pandemic reaction isn't really political, it was a series of public health issues where politicians may have got involved but I do not believe there was any manifesto policies about lockdowns.
Unfortunately without funding the NHS was never going to very quickly recover. There's been long running problems with staffing which were compounded by burnout (and that's with lockdown) along with a period of underfunding since the last financial crisis. | |
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| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:28 - Aug 19 with 1512 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:16 - Aug 19 by BlueBadger |
We didn't have a lockdown Christmas 2021, Trumpy. Christmas 2020 however, would have been even more catastrophic than it already was. We were struggling with capacity, demand on ITU beds and exhausted, traumatised staff as it was. Letting the bodies pile high as dear old 200 pounds of racist mince in a 100 pound suit would have liked to do would again, have completely overwhelmed services.
In the case of both major lockdowns in the UK, doing it sooner would have probably saved lives and been shorter with considerably less disruption to services. [Post edited 20 Aug 2022 21:10]
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Thank you for getting back in track with the names, you had me worried there. Maybe I’ll call you Jezza or some other leftie loon who you don’t actually support.
People were calling for them again, Scotland and Wales went back to empty stadiums and closing things, hence the debate.
Yes they were about 6 months late with policy in 2020, no argument there. | | | |
| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:30 - Aug 19 with 1492 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:27 - Aug 19 by DanTheMan |
Politics is debated because we get a general say through voting. The pandemic reaction isn't really political, it was a series of public health issues where politicians may have got involved but I do not believe there was any manifesto policies about lockdowns.
Unfortunately without funding the NHS was never going to very quickly recover. There's been long running problems with staffing which were compounded by burnout (and that's with lockdown) along with a period of underfunding since the last financial crisis. |
“The pandemic reaction isn't really political“
That’s not entirely correct. | | | |
| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:37 - Aug 19 with 1436 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:21 - Aug 19 by Illinoisblue |
One amusing* covid side note that happened to me this week. Started a new job and bloke in the office comes over to say hello. I get up to shake his hand and he says “sorry, I don’t do handshakes right now. I was a close contact to 3 people who just tested positive after a family gathering at the weekend” Won’t do hand shakes, will stand by my desk and breathe in my space for about five minutes.
* actually not amusing if I get covid from him |
My company dropped their vaccine mandate policy for new employees and being in office after the CDC advice changed, which I found interesting. | | | |
| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:38 - Aug 19 with 1427 views | DanTheMan |
| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:30 - Aug 19 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
“The pandemic reaction isn't really political“
That’s not entirely correct. |
Let me rephrase, it shouldn't be. For whatever reason some members of the "right" tended to err on "lockdowns bad" and those on the "left" tended to lean to "lockdowns good" and by good I continue to mean "best of a bad bunch". | |
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| [Redacted] on 14:40 - Aug 19 with 1398 views | victorywilhappen |
| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:30 - Aug 19 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
“The pandemic reaction isn't really political“
That’s not entirely correct. |
[Redacted] |  | | |
| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:41 - Aug 19 with 1385 views | Darth_Koont |
Sweden did have a much more overall health perspective though. Their response was independent of government policy per se and developed via virologists, epidemiologists, acute care and wider medical advisors and healthcare economists.
The part that really fell apart was the privatised elderly care facilities largely outside official control that just couldn't operate safely in a pandemic. That was the biggest source of fatalities and almost immediately too.
The conversation in Sweden right from the start was about navigating and containing Covid but also not creating problems with a heavy-handed response that would have damaging and health-impacting effects on society e.g. less screening for diseases and fewer procedures all the way to developmental issues for children not going to school and an increase in mental health or alcohol-related issues.
The conversations in the UK and US were largely politicized from the start and as a result wildly swinging between extremes and the whims of government. As a result, no surprise that Covid had the biggest effect on both people's lives (and deaths) as well as society and the economy. |  |
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| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:48 - Aug 19 with 1340 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 13:56 - Aug 19 by StokieBlue |
It's an important study but lets have some context here.
As it states, it's possible that 1000 people per week over the excess-deaths are dying at the moment but then it doesn't specifically blame lockdowns of which there hasn't been one for 15 months now. What it does mention is backlogs may be a contributing factor which whilst being part of the issues with lockdowns are also driven by a complete lack of investment in the NHS.
It's awful that these deaths are occurring but once again for context, when the lockdown was required there were ~3000 people per day dying even with restrictive measures in place (~27 times the level being recorded here), without a lockdown it would have been far higher than that.
Lockdowns were needed, especially early on when there simply wasn't an effective treatment and Alpha and Delta were causing havoc with peoples lungs (many of whom still have issues). Any other stance would have condemned far more people to their deaths. It's important not to place the current Covid context and retrospectively apply it to the conditions early in the pandemic.
SB |
In terms of your last paragraph I actually wasn’t doing that, despite popular belief on here. It’s important to note though, that people including SAGE were massively calling for them again. 75k deaths by the end of April was their model last December with Omicron, if drastic steps weren't taken.
I was living in a place with little restrictions during Delta and it didn’t turn out to be anything as bad as the first wave, albeit in place with a lot less population density. The early months of 2021 were obviously horrific in the UK with Alpha. | | | |
| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:50 - Aug 19 with 1301 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
Congrats on some mental gymnastics again.
It clearly was political in many parts of the world, I didn’t make it anything.
Yes I was very concerned from a public health perspective for all kinds of reasons, not just one, as I’ve already noted on this thread. | | | |
| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:57 - Aug 19 with 1262 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:41 - Aug 19 by Darth_Koont |
Sweden did have a much more overall health perspective though. Their response was independent of government policy per se and developed via virologists, epidemiologists, acute care and wider medical advisors and healthcare economists.
The part that really fell apart was the privatised elderly care facilities largely outside official control that just couldn't operate safely in a pandemic. That was the biggest source of fatalities and almost immediately too.
The conversation in Sweden right from the start was about navigating and containing Covid but also not creating problems with a heavy-handed response that would have damaging and health-impacting effects on society e.g. less screening for diseases and fewer procedures all the way to developmental issues for children not going to school and an increase in mental health or alcohol-related issues.
The conversations in the UK and US were largely politicized from the start and as a result wildly swinging between extremes and the whims of government. As a result, no surprise that Covid had the biggest effect on both people's lives (and deaths) as well as society and the economy. |
Correct! | | | |
| [Redacted] on 14:58 - Aug 19 with 1256 views | victorywilhappen |
| Worrying trends linked to extended lockdowns on 14:41 - Aug 19 by Darth_Koont |
Sweden did have a much more overall health perspective though. Their response was independent of government policy per se and developed via virologists, epidemiologists, acute care and wider medical advisors and healthcare economists.
The part that really fell apart was the privatised elderly care facilities largely outside official control that just couldn't operate safely in a pandemic. That was the biggest source of fatalities and almost immediately too.
The conversation in Sweden right from the start was about navigating and containing Covid but also not creating problems with a heavy-handed response that would have damaging and health-impacting effects on society e.g. less screening for diseases and fewer procedures all the way to developmental issues for children not going to school and an increase in mental health or alcohol-related issues.
The conversations in the UK and US were largely politicized from the start and as a result wildly swinging between extremes and the whims of government. As a result, no surprise that Covid had the biggest effect on both people's lives (and deaths) as well as society and the economy. |
[Redacted] | | | |
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