| We WILL drop points shortly. 20:45 - Apr 6 with 3105 views | TheBoyBlue |
We've been brilliant, but the law of averages says that we'll drop points in the next 2 or 3 games. It could be tomorrow, it could be Cheltenham. If we could still have it in our hands after it happens, that'll be great, but I hope we're all prepared for it and we won't all fall into a spiral of depression and recriminations.
I include myself in that, as I had written automatic promotion off a few weeks ago. |  |
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| We WILL drop points shortly. on 20:53 - Apr 6 with 2618 views | J2BLUE |
There is no such thing when it comes to sport. If you're saying no team can go on winning forever that is pretty obvious but there is zero reason why we can't win the next five if we play well enough.
Each game is independent like the spin of a roulette wheel. Previous games/spins have no impact in terms of score etc. |  |
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| We WILL drop points shortly. on 20:55 - Apr 6 with 2620 views | Guthrum |
There's no such thing as the law of averages. Each game is a discrete event, the likelihood of winning or losing which is not governed by previous results, except insofar as confidence might be higher after a good run, or vice versa.
That's not to say we'll avoid slipping up, but previous successes have no bearing on the probability of that.
It's actually point of "average" which moves. Our "average" result recently is slightly better than a 2-0 win. |  |
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| We WILL drop points shortly. on 20:55 - Apr 6 with 2610 views | MattinLondon |
I’m afraid that I don’t get your point.
We will drop points at some point - yeah, we know that’s a possibility.
We also went on a long blip of results. In the main no one really got abusive and most simply carried on hoping for the best.
We’re prepared. |  | | |
| We WILL drop points shortly. on 20:58 - Apr 6 with 2583 views | J2BLUE |
| We WILL drop points shortly. on 20:55 - Apr 6 by Guthrum |
There's no such thing as the law of averages. Each game is a discrete event, the likelihood of winning or losing which is not governed by previous results, except insofar as confidence might be higher after a good run, or vice versa.
That's not to say we'll avoid slipping up, but previous successes have no bearing on the probability of that.
It's actually point of "average" which moves. Our "average" result recently is slightly better than a 2-0 win. |
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| We WILL drop points shortly. on 21:00 - Apr 6 with 2561 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| We WILL drop points shortly. on 20:55 - Apr 6 by Guthrum |
There's no such thing as the law of averages. Each game is a discrete event, the likelihood of winning or losing which is not governed by previous results, except insofar as confidence might be higher after a good run, or vice versa.
That's not to say we'll avoid slipping up, but previous successes have no bearing on the probability of that.
It's actually point of "average" which moves. Our "average" result recently is slightly better than a 2-0 win. |
Indeed, the law of averages is a wrong reference point. We are on great form with a highly talented team that has not been exceeding the performances in results.
However, it is highly unlikely we will win all the rest of our games. Wednesday and Barnsley (and before that Bolton and Derby) were on great form. What will determine our season is how much longer we keep winning and whether we can get straight back to it when we don't. That coupled with exactly how well the others do as they won't win them all either. |  |
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| We WILL drop points shortly. on 21:02 - Apr 6 with 2542 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
I was also in the play off camp a few weeks ago but we will batter Wycombe tomorrow. |  |
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| We WILL drop points shortly. on 21:02 - Apr 6 with 2540 views | TheBoyBlue |
| We WILL drop points shortly. on 20:55 - Apr 6 by MattinLondon |
I’m afraid that I don’t get your point.
We will drop points at some point - yeah, we know that’s a possibility.
We also went on a long blip of results. In the main no one really got abusive and most simply carried on hoping for the best.
We’re prepared. |
I'm not sure that was the case... | |
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| We WILL drop points shortly. on 21:08 - Apr 6 with 2466 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| We WILL drop points shortly. on 21:02 - Apr 6 by TheBoyBlue |
I'm not sure that was the case... |
A couple of posters went full melt down and there was even the odd one who said it was time for McKenna to go.
The vast majority saw that as extreme foolishness and many pointed out we are club moving in the right direction. | |
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| We WILL drop points shortly. on 21:10 - Apr 6 with 2452 views | TheBoyBlue |
| We WILL drop points shortly. on 20:55 - Apr 6 by Guthrum |
There's no such thing as the law of averages. Each game is a discrete event, the likelihood of winning or losing which is not governed by previous results, except insofar as confidence might be higher after a good run, or vice versa.
That's not to say we'll avoid slipping up, but previous successes have no bearing on the probability of that.
It's actually point of "average" which moves. Our "average" result recently is slightly better than a 2-0 win. |
Fair point. Badly phrased by me. But the general gist remains the same. We'll drop points shortly and the natural reaction to a poor result from myself and many others is to go OTT on the reaction. When it happens though, we've got to remain strong, take a deep breath and stay behind the lads, not take pot shots at individuals, tactics, selections. Although I hope the last few weeks have hopefully shown that we can all trust in McKenna, I can guarantee there will be someone who pops up to say he's got it all wrong, that sort of stuff, which won't be helpful. | |
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| We WILL drop points shortly. on 21:26 - Apr 6 with 2331 views | HighgateBlue |
| We WILL drop points shortly. on 20:55 - Apr 6 by Guthrum |
There's no such thing as the law of averages. Each game is a discrete event, the likelihood of winning or losing which is not governed by previous results, except insofar as confidence might be higher after a good run, or vice versa.
That's not to say we'll avoid slipping up, but previous successes have no bearing on the probability of that.
It's actually point of "average" which moves. Our "average" result recently is slightly better than a 2-0 win. |
There is the law of large numbers of course, which is I suspect what is being alluded to. But there is of course no reason why, if our season has to contain a blip of some sort, that blip must be in the future. It may well exist in the past. Let's hope so.
I'm not sure what kind of average you're basing the alleged average result on, but "slightly better than" indicates you're not using a mode. I find it hard to accept that our average result is better than a 2-0 win, when we score fewer than 2 goals per game, we concede more than zero goals a game, and we average fewer than 3 points per game.
In any event, any analysis of our past form points to a Town win being the most likely result tomorrow. COYB! |  | | |
| We WILL drop points shortly. on 21:30 - Apr 6 with 2298 views | Coastalblue |
Where's Cotty when you need him? |  |
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| We WILL drop points shortly. on 21:42 - Apr 6 with 2211 views | HighgateBlue |
| We WILL drop points shortly. on 20:53 - Apr 6 by J2BLUE |
There is no such thing when it comes to sport. If you're saying no team can go on winning forever that is pretty obvious but there is zero reason why we can't win the next five if we play well enough.
Each game is independent like the spin of a roulette wheel. Previous games/spins have no impact in terms of score etc. |
I don't think that roulette is the best example to support your position. In roulette, the probability of each spin is known in advance. If there's a 0.5 chance of red and a 0.5 chance of black, and you get 10 blacks in a row, the law of large numbers says that as the number of spins continues to rise, the overall balance between red and black will tend back towards the mean. The 11th spin in isolation is no more or less likely to be black or red based on any previous result, but given that the probability is known as 0.5 on each spin, the current rate of 100% black will come down over time. This is a theorem rather than merely pop-maths.
If your analysis that Town's results are analogous to roulette spins is correct, then the OP is right - the law of large numbers (the law of averages perhaps being a misnomer, or at least a not terribly robust name) dictates that the average result will come down when compared solely with the last 7 results (all being wins).
But I don't think that Town's results bare much comparison with a roulette wheel spin. We don't know precisely what the probability is of each result in advance. However, the probability of a team winning may very well be assessed as being greater than any other outcome when that team's form over the recent past and the season as a whole is substantially better than the opponent, and when that team is playing at home (assuming that that team's results are better at home than away, and the opponent's results are worse away than at home).
In short, Town are more likely to win than achieve any other result, it's perfectly valid to look at past form to reach that conclusion, we'll inevitably lose at some point in the future, but roulette doesn't have a lot to do with it.
COYB! | | | |
| We WILL drop points shortly. on 21:44 - Apr 6 with 2200 views | Buhrer |
What was the purpose of this? Calm down and forget this defeatist melodrama. Every game is a new game. We are going to smash Wycombe. This season is brilliant! |  | | |
| We WILL drop points shortly. on 22:04 - Apr 6 with 2079 views | Metal_Hacker |
| We WILL drop points shortly. on 21:44 - Apr 6 by Buhrer |
What was the purpose of this? Calm down and forget this defeatist melodrama. Every game is a new game. We are going to smash Wycombe. This season is brilliant! |
I’m struggling to argue against this
End of |  |
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| We WILL drop points shortly. on 22:04 - Apr 6 with 2072 views | Guthrum |
| We WILL drop points shortly. on 21:26 - Apr 6 by HighgateBlue |
There is the law of large numbers of course, which is I suspect what is being alluded to. But there is of course no reason why, if our season has to contain a blip of some sort, that blip must be in the future. It may well exist in the past. Let's hope so.
I'm not sure what kind of average you're basing the alleged average result on, but "slightly better than" indicates you're not using a mode. I find it hard to accept that our average result is better than a 2-0 win, when we score fewer than 2 goals per game, we concede more than zero goals a game, and we average fewer than 3 points per game.
In any event, any analysis of our past form points to a Town win being the most likely result tomorrow. COYB! |
I did put the word 'recently' in there. Was actually referring to the standard six-game form table, in which we've won all six, scored 14 and conceded zero. | |
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| We WILL drop points shortly. on 22:16 - Apr 6 with 2006 views | Guthrum |
| We WILL drop points shortly. on 21:10 - Apr 6 by TheBoyBlue |
Fair point. Badly phrased by me. But the general gist remains the same. We'll drop points shortly and the natural reaction to a poor result from myself and many others is to go OTT on the reaction. When it happens though, we've got to remain strong, take a deep breath and stay behind the lads, not take pot shots at individuals, tactics, selections. Although I hope the last few weeks have hopefully shown that we can all trust in McKenna, I can guarantee there will be someone who pops up to say he's got it all wrong, that sort of stuff, which won't be helpful. |
I agree entirely with your basic premise, that we shouldn't go overboard if a slip-up does happen.
However, given what's happened since Valentine's Day, I really don't think it's justified to say we are likely to drop points soon, without some some significant problem arising, e.g. injury to one or more crucial players (or perhaps mad referee decisions). | |
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| We WILL drop points shortly. on 22:17 - Apr 6 with 2003 views | Cafe_Newman |
We have a "general" posts section.
We have a "football" posts section.
This post belongs in a "note to self" section. [Post edited 6 Apr 2023 22:19]
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| We WILL drop points shortly. on 22:26 - Apr 6 with 1972 views | waveneyblue |
Reading through... this should be bookmarked as one of the most TWTD threads of all time*
*Not involving cheese, politics or transgender skateboarding |  | | |
| We WILL drop points shortly. on 22:30 - Apr 6 with 1943 views | Stewart27 |
| We WILL drop points shortly. on 20:55 - Apr 6 by MattinLondon |
I’m afraid that I don’t get your point.
We will drop points at some point - yeah, we know that’s a possibility.
We also went on a long blip of results. In the main no one really got abusive and most simply carried on hoping for the best.
We’re prepared. |
No.
People wanted KM gone.
Most didn’t, but there was a few. | | | |
| We WILL drop points shortly. on 22:33 - Apr 6 with 1917 views | kesblue |
Why will we drop points, we are clearly the best team in the league, let's go and win the rest |  | | |
| We WILL drop points shortly. on 22:36 - Apr 6 with 1904 views | TheBoyBlue |
| We WILL drop points shortly. on 21:44 - Apr 6 by Buhrer |
What was the purpose of this? Calm down and forget this defeatist melodrama. Every game is a new game. We are going to smash Wycombe. This season is brilliant! |
Not defeatist. Just realistic. We can't win every game, although you could argue we should. We are most likely to drop them against Peterborough next, by which time we should hopefully be well on our way to securing automatic. Just hoping to preempt the defeatism when it does happen, especially if its this weekend.
For what it's worth, an early goal tomorrow will make all the difference and hopefully Cheltenham will be less frustrating at their place than if we were playing them at home.
COYBs! | |
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| We WILL drop points shortly. on 22:38 - Apr 6 with 1892 views | ITFCson |
The law of averages is not a thing when considering what’s happened in the past. Especially when it’s a skill game. Our previous 7 games make us more likely to win the next game so the opposite to what you say is true.
It’s funny this post made me think of the Chinese at the roulette wheel all making a note of the numbers as if it will effect the next spins. | | | |
| We WILL drop points shortly. on 22:41 - Apr 6 with 1875 views | FifeITFC |
I think we've already come out of our very shaky period of form, whereas Wednesday and Plymouth are now having a few wobbles or injuries worries.
This is ours for the taking. |  |
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| We WILL drop points shortly. on 22:43 - Apr 6 with 1859 views | TheBoyBlue |
| We WILL drop points shortly. on 22:41 - Apr 6 by FifeITFC |
I think we've already come out of our very shaky period of form, whereas Wednesday and Plymouth are now having a few wobbles or injuries worries.
This is ours for the taking. |
I don't disagree. All the more reason to stay level-headed when dropped points come. | |
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| We WILL drop points shortly. on 22:49 - Apr 6 with 1824 views | J2BLUE |
| We WILL drop points shortly. on 21:42 - Apr 6 by HighgateBlue |
I don't think that roulette is the best example to support your position. In roulette, the probability of each spin is known in advance. If there's a 0.5 chance of red and a 0.5 chance of black, and you get 10 blacks in a row, the law of large numbers says that as the number of spins continues to rise, the overall balance between red and black will tend back towards the mean. The 11th spin in isolation is no more or less likely to be black or red based on any previous result, but given that the probability is known as 0.5 on each spin, the current rate of 100% black will come down over time. This is a theorem rather than merely pop-maths.
If your analysis that Town's results are analogous to roulette spins is correct, then the OP is right - the law of large numbers (the law of averages perhaps being a misnomer, or at least a not terribly robust name) dictates that the average result will come down when compared solely with the last 7 results (all being wins).
But I don't think that Town's results bare much comparison with a roulette wheel spin. We don't know precisely what the probability is of each result in advance. However, the probability of a team winning may very well be assessed as being greater than any other outcome when that team's form over the recent past and the season as a whole is substantially better than the opponent, and when that team is playing at home (assuming that that team's results are better at home than away, and the opponent's results are worse away than at home).
In short, Town are more likely to win than achieve any other result, it's perfectly valid to look at past form to reach that conclusion, we'll inevitably lose at some point in the future, but roulette doesn't have a lot to do with it.
COYB! |
There's always one isn't there?
You can get 20 reds in a row but the chance of it being red is the same on the next spin as any other spin. My point that it has no influence on the next spin is 100% correct. I fully understand that over time the probability will even out. That is quite literally a big part of my job.
Law of averages does not apply to sport. That's why so many people lose money betting on teams who are 'due a win' etc.. | |
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