| Birth rates and immigration 09:58 - Apr 19 with 901 views | onceablue |
Countries birth rates pay a massive role in migration around the world
Currently there is not a main European country in the top 120 countries birth rate table. France is the first with a birth rate of 1.8
In many countries particularly in war torn countries the birth rate is as high as 6. Africa as a continent has an unstaintable population growth. Many of these countries are also hit with climate and famine problems. Afghanistan a country ravaged by war has a birth rate of 4.3. Eventually a large proportion of this new population will want to leave their country because it offers them nothing.
I have no problem with people wanting to move around the world mainly to Europe that isn’t the problem, I would do the same. It is how we will pay for it and how Europe is going to cope with a massive influx of people over the next few decades
When I was growing up there was always talk that many countries did not have the necessary birth control and this was going to be addressed. Is this the answer that we try and control the Worlds future population? |  | | |  |
| Birth rates and immigration on 10:24 - Apr 19 with 830 views | Guthrum |
How we pay for it is that the people migrating are generally younger than ageing developed world populations, so they will have a longer working - and taxpaying - life once here. The issues with that are actually having the employment for them to go to (does it pay a living wage in high-cost Europe?) and the run-up time between arrival and revenue flowing into national coffers (given chronic under-investment in services).
The underlying problem for a lot of people is cultural, rather than economic. Europeans have an idea (albeit often rosy-tinted, if not outright mythical) of what their countries are supposed to be like. If we then introduce large numbers of immigrants who look and dress differently, do things differently, speak different languages, it makes people uncomfortable. Has always been so (look at how the Irish were regarded a century or so ago, West Indians in the 1960s to '80s). Not helped by inflammatory media stressing criminality and so on. Or ghettoising housing policy.
With regard to birthrates in the developing world, that again comes down to culture. High infant mortality encourages having lots of children. Cultural/religious attitudes to contraception and male procreative potency do not help, or the frequent legal/social position of women in strongly patriarchal societies. That's a hugely uphill battle - which is not going to be helped by the current "lets all have big families" attitude of the European and American right. |  |
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| Birth rates and immigration on 12:55 - Apr 19 with 748 views | J2BLUE |
I think the immigration issue is going to get increasingly complex.
In 5-10 years with the advances in robotics and AI I think we're going to see a lot of jobs disappear. I am absolutely convinced my job and many other office jobs will be lost to AI within 2-3 years.
We need to start planning for UBI. People question how we are going to pay for pensions etc in 20 years and say we need mass immigration but do we? I can see a world where borders are much tighter, immigration is reduced and every country takes a US style approach.
Not posting this as anti immigration. It's something I only thought of about 5 minutes ago so just throwing it out there. Might be complete rubbish. |  |
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| Birth rates and immigration on 13:41 - Apr 19 with 703 views | Guthrum |
| Birth rates and immigration on 12:55 - Apr 19 by J2BLUE |
I think the immigration issue is going to get increasingly complex.
In 5-10 years with the advances in robotics and AI I think we're going to see a lot of jobs disappear. I am absolutely convinced my job and many other office jobs will be lost to AI within 2-3 years.
We need to start planning for UBI. People question how we are going to pay for pensions etc in 20 years and say we need mass immigration but do we? I can see a world where borders are much tighter, immigration is reduced and every country takes a US style approach.
Not posting this as anti immigration. It's something I only thought of about 5 minutes ago so just throwing it out there. Might be complete rubbish. |
The main reason to migrate is if you can get a better standard of living than by staying where you are. That can include fleeing the economic disruption of conflict or oppression (which almost always includes some kind of economic exclusion or deprivation). If there is not the perception of relatively well-paid jobs to go to, that considerably lessens the draw.
On the other hand, there will still be a lot of employment which cannot be done by robotics or AI - or is not cost effective compared with hiring humans (often on low wages). Caring for the elderly and children. Much work in the construction/maintenance industry. Both huge employers and the kind of areas where immigrants often end up.
Immigration blocking policies are all very well, but as climate problems worsen and with a swing towards more bad/violent/repressive government (backed and funded by hard-line aspirant regional/super-powers) then the scale of migration increases to the point it becomes armed incursions. Think a late Roman Empire situation. | |
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| Birth rates and immigration on 13:49 - Apr 19 with 681 views | J2BLUE |
| Birth rates and immigration on 13:41 - Apr 19 by Guthrum |
The main reason to migrate is if you can get a better standard of living than by staying where you are. That can include fleeing the economic disruption of conflict or oppression (which almost always includes some kind of economic exclusion or deprivation). If there is not the perception of relatively well-paid jobs to go to, that considerably lessens the draw.
On the other hand, there will still be a lot of employment which cannot be done by robotics or AI - or is not cost effective compared with hiring humans (often on low wages). Caring for the elderly and children. Much work in the construction/maintenance industry. Both huge employers and the kind of areas where immigrants often end up.
Immigration blocking policies are all very well, but as climate problems worsen and with a swing towards more bad/violent/repressive government (backed and funded by hard-line aspirant regional/super-powers) then the scale of migration increases to the point it becomes armed incursions. Think a late Roman Empire situation. |
Agree, I was thinking about it more from the country's point of view than the migrants' point of view. I don't blame them for wanting a better life and in a perfect world no one would have their living standards capped by the lottery of where they are born. | |
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| Birth rates and immigration on 13:51 - Apr 19 with 670 views | TractorWood |
| Birth rates and immigration on 12:55 - Apr 19 by J2BLUE |
I think the immigration issue is going to get increasingly complex.
In 5-10 years with the advances in robotics and AI I think we're going to see a lot of jobs disappear. I am absolutely convinced my job and many other office jobs will be lost to AI within 2-3 years.
We need to start planning for UBI. People question how we are going to pay for pensions etc in 20 years and say we need mass immigration but do we? I can see a world where borders are much tighter, immigration is reduced and every country takes a US style approach.
Not posting this as anti immigration. It's something I only thought of about 5 minutes ago so just throwing it out there. Might be complete rubbish. |
AI will absorb loads of repetitive, predictable/pattern based and low risk office jobs. Autopilot has been around for 20 years and there are still 3 pilots on a long haul flight.
I also think AI has is presented in a pretty disingenuous way. It's not intelligent it's just a highly trained language model that aggregates the Internet.
Ask it to draw someone drawing with their left hand. It cannot as the only images online are people drawing with the right hand. It then presents wrong information as correct. Known as a hallucination or slopaganda.
It has miles to go before it can actually reliably replace relatively skilled work. Even if management etc invest and nurture it. IMO.
20 years, it will be amazing. [Post edited 19 Apr 13:56]
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| Birth rates and immigration on 14:18 - Apr 19 with 598 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Birth rates and immigration on 12:55 - Apr 19 by J2BLUE |
I think the immigration issue is going to get increasingly complex.
In 5-10 years with the advances in robotics and AI I think we're going to see a lot of jobs disappear. I am absolutely convinced my job and many other office jobs will be lost to AI within 2-3 years.
We need to start planning for UBI. People question how we are going to pay for pensions etc in 20 years and say we need mass immigration but do we? I can see a world where borders are much tighter, immigration is reduced and every country takes a US style approach.
Not posting this as anti immigration. It's something I only thought of about 5 minutes ago so just throwing it out there. Might be complete rubbish. |
Migration is a double edged sword, it cuts both ways. Some Countries within the EU are seeing their population reducing as people exercise their right to free movement.
The ones who leave are, more often than not, the ones you would want to stay. Will be the same in Africa those who migrate will be better educated than those who remain. |  |
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| Birth rates and immigration on 14:25 - Apr 19 with 585 views | NedPlimpton |
| Birth rates and immigration on 12:55 - Apr 19 by J2BLUE |
I think the immigration issue is going to get increasingly complex.
In 5-10 years with the advances in robotics and AI I think we're going to see a lot of jobs disappear. I am absolutely convinced my job and many other office jobs will be lost to AI within 2-3 years.
We need to start planning for UBI. People question how we are going to pay for pensions etc in 20 years and say we need mass immigration but do we? I can see a world where borders are much tighter, immigration is reduced and every country takes a US style approach.
Not posting this as anti immigration. It's something I only thought of about 5 minutes ago so just throwing it out there. Might be complete rubbish. |
Out of interest, what is it that you do?
I work in an office job and absolutely cannot see AI taking my place anytime soon |  | | |
| Birth rates and immigration on 14:27 - Apr 19 with 568 views | Mullet |
| Birth rates and immigration on 14:25 - Apr 19 by NedPlimpton |
Out of interest, what is it that you do?
I work in an office job and absolutely cannot see AI taking my place anytime soon |
The mcflurries
(Twtd tradition not intentional defamation) |  |
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| Birth rates and immigration on 15:45 - Apr 19 with 457 views | OldFart71 |
Going back in time families were larger and in no way wealthier. But we have a situation now that housing whether mortgage owned or rented costs so much therefore partners will look at each other and say we can't afford to either save to get on the housing ladder or without both working to pay the stupid costs of renting. I think the main problem is that when I was a kid I lived in a small village and a majority of my mates and myself lived in a Council house. Only those with very good jobs like my mate across the road whose dad was a Squadron Leader and the ones that had a business owned their own homes. | | | |
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