| Over 50,000 excess deaths on 22:37 - May 12 with 1350 views | Guthrum |
Was this a good, bad or average 'Flu winter? That could push the excess deaths total a fair bit one way or the other. Doesn't say what the starting date for those figures is, would be interesting to see it as a percentage of the average figure. |  |
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| Over 50,000 excess deaths on 22:38 - May 12 with 1350 views | bluelagos |
The data is ONS data so it absolutely is scrub checked. And it has an 11 day lag so the 50k excess deaths was as at May 1st and will be larger now.
The FT has been doing lots on this. |  |
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| Over 50,000 excess deaths on 22:39 - May 12 with 1339 views | bluelagos |
| Over 50,000 excess deaths on 22:37 - May 12 by Guthrum |
Was this a good, bad or average 'Flu winter? That could push the excess deaths total a fair bit one way or the other. Doesn't say what the starting date for those figures is, would be interesting to see it as a percentage of the average figure. |
Will be based on the ONS data released today, based on an average year. | |
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| Over 50,000 excess deaths on 22:44 - May 12 with 1328 views | StokieBlue |
| Over 50,000 excess deaths on 22:37 - May 12 by Guthrum |
Was this a good, bad or average 'Flu winter? That could push the excess deaths total a fair bit one way or the other. Doesn't say what the starting date for those figures is, would be interesting to see it as a percentage of the average figure. |
That is true although even if it's a bad flu year some of that could possibly be offset by the fact less people will have died in accidents given less people are out and about. However more people might have died due to not wanting to visit a hospital.
Lots of unknown variables in the number. Either way it's a large and horrible number with the potential to grow a lot more depending on how many people in the UK have actually had C19 which at the moment is pretty much unknown.
SB |  | | |
| Over 50,000 excess deaths on 22:52 - May 12 with 1305 views | bluelagos |
| Over 50,000 excess deaths on 22:44 - May 12 by StokieBlue |
That is true although even if it's a bad flu year some of that could possibly be offset by the fact less people will have died in accidents given less people are out and about. However more people might have died due to not wanting to visit a hospital.
Lots of unknown variables in the number. Either way it's a large and horrible number with the potential to grow a lot more depending on how many people in the UK have actually had C19 which at the moment is pretty much unknown.
SB |
If you look at the graph on the Ft link - this year is nothing exceptional until March. In fact it was slightly lower than average at that point.
Which suggests a "bad flu year" doesn't explain any of the excess deaths. | |
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| Over 50,000 excess deaths on 23:05 - May 12 with 1286 views | StokieBlue |
| Over 50,000 excess deaths on 22:52 - May 12 by bluelagos |
If you look at the graph on the Ft link - this year is nothing exceptional until March. In fact it was slightly lower than average at that point.
Which suggests a "bad flu year" doesn't explain any of the excess deaths. |
I agree, excess deaths is almost certainly the best way we have of determining the true impact of C19 at this point.
SB | | | |
| Over 50,000 excess deaths on 00:50 - May 13 with 1245 views | Guthrum |
| Over 50,000 excess deaths on 22:52 - May 12 by bluelagos |
If you look at the graph on the Ft link - this year is nothing exceptional until March. In fact it was slightly lower than average at that point.
Which suggests a "bad flu year" doesn't explain any of the excess deaths. |
Genuine 'Flu is also a notifiable disease. So if someone dies of it, samples will be taken and they will be identified as such (so can be excluded from C-19 numbers). If it's showing slightly lower figures in the late winter up to March, then that suggests 'Flu is not a significant factor. | |
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| Over 50,000 excess deaths on 06:20 - May 13 with 1167 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Over 50,000 excess deaths on 22:38 - May 12 by bluelagos |
The data is ONS data so it absolutely is scrub checked. And it has an 11 day lag so the 50k excess deaths was as at May 1st and will be larger now.
The FT has been doing lots on this. |
Yep, and the excess death peak is well past seasonal flu peak mirroring official Covi death peak. FT piece a couple of days ago looked into this in a bit more detail and they've been running regular updates on twitter. https://www.ft.com/content/40fc8904-febf-4a66-8d1c-ea3e48bbc034
Good news is we've seen a sustained drop in the number of daily new excess deaths for several days running now.
Economist have been looking at the excess death picture across Europe and their settings (more grim reading for the care home sector).
[Post edited 13 May 2020 6:24]
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| Over 50,000 excess deaths on 10:33 - May 13 with 1077 views | Pendejo |
| Over 50,000 excess deaths on 23:05 - May 12 by StokieBlue |
I agree, excess deaths is almost certainly the best way we have of determining the true impact of C19 at this point.
SB |
The main point I wished to express was that excess deaths exceeds covid related by many thousands, whereas I had expected the excess deaths figure to be within covid.
See link posted by Swansea. Excess deaths across the sample exceed covid but UK and Netherlands appear not to have fared well.
Over 50,000 excess deaths by Swansea_Blue 13 May 2020 6:20Yep, and the excess death peak is well past seasonal flu peak mirroring official Covi death peak. FT piece a couple of days ago looked into this in a bit more detail and they've been running regular updates on twitter. https://www.ft.com/content/40fc8904-febf-4a66-8d1c-ea3e48bbc034
Good news is we've seen a sustained drop in the number of daily new excess deaths for several days running now.
Economist have been looking at the excess death picture across Europe and their settings (more grim reading for the care home sector).
https://twitter.com/PedderSophie/status/1258497092953219072?s=20
To put it simply I expected
Covid ↘excess
But it's
Excess ↘ covid
What else has been happening to kill our countrymen off? |  |
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| Over 50,000 excess deaths on 11:17 - May 13 with 1049 views | ElephantintheRoom |
It went past 60,000 last week. And remember these are registered deaths - there is quite a lag at the moment with many GP heroes more or less refusing to leave their surgeries to attend anything suspiciious Covid-related... there's at leat 2,000 deaths that occured in April & May still to add in. The true death toll has probably already passed 65,000 - with the second wave starting today. |  |
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| Over 50,000 excess deaths on 12:03 - May 13 with 1024 views | GeoffSentence |
| Over 50,000 excess deaths on 22:44 - May 12 by StokieBlue |
That is true although even if it's a bad flu year some of that could possibly be offset by the fact less people will have died in accidents given less people are out and about. However more people might have died due to not wanting to visit a hospital.
Lots of unknown variables in the number. Either way it's a large and horrible number with the potential to grow a lot more depending on how many people in the UK have actually had C19 which at the moment is pretty much unknown.
SB |
It's one of the things that needs to be considered when relaxing lockdown.
On the one hand lockdown is saving lives by keeping Covid down, but on the other it is causing deaths in other unexpected ways.
Anyone trying to work out what the best thing to do and when has one heck of a job on their hands. |  |
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| Over 50,000 excess deaths on 15:26 - May 13 with 976 views | bluelagos |
| Over 50,000 excess deaths on 10:33 - May 13 by Pendejo |
The main point I wished to express was that excess deaths exceeds covid related by many thousands, whereas I had expected the excess deaths figure to be within covid.
See link posted by Swansea. Excess deaths across the sample exceed covid but UK and Netherlands appear not to have fared well.
Over 50,000 excess deaths by Swansea_Blue 13 May 2020 6:20Yep, and the excess death peak is well past seasonal flu peak mirroring official Covi death peak. FT piece a couple of days ago looked into this in a bit more detail and they've been running regular updates on twitter. https://www.ft.com/content/40fc8904-febf-4a66-8d1c-ea3e48bbc034
Good news is we've seen a sustained drop in the number of daily new excess deaths for several days running now.
Economist have been looking at the excess death picture across Europe and their settings (more grim reading for the care home sector).
https://twitter.com/PedderSophie/status/1258497092953219072?s=20
To put it simply I expected
Covid ↘excess
But it's
Excess ↘ covid
What else has been happening to kill our countrymen off? |
So excess deaths is indeed significantly higher than CV19 deaths. The reasons could be quite a few things including
Some CV deaths are not being recorded as CV deaths.
Some preventable deaths (non CV related) are happening because people are not presenting to A&E or calling 999 when they did previously.
Some additional deaths are happening from non CV related issues due to the fact we have reduced NHS treatments to prepare for CV cases.
So there are a range of reasons why the excess deaths could be higher without anyone really knowing exactly why they are higher, if that makes sense.
*Am no expert, but this is as reported on many radio/news programmes and from chats with a couple of NHS staff I know. | |
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| Over 50,000 excess deaths on 15:36 - May 13 with 959 views | m14_blue |
| Over 50,000 excess deaths on 12:03 - May 13 by GeoffSentence |
It's one of the things that needs to be considered when relaxing lockdown.
On the one hand lockdown is saving lives by keeping Covid down, but on the other it is causing deaths in other unexpected ways.
Anyone trying to work out what the best thing to do and when has one heck of a job on their hands. |
It really is so complicated.
Think it’s worth remembering though that releasing lockdown too soon won’t relieve pressure on the NHS. If there is a significant second wave then that will mean more avoidable deaths from other causes as once again they have no choice but to divert all resources to crisis management.
Some people (not you) seem to think releasing lockdown means the NHS will go back to normal, people visiting doctors, A&E etc. I would argue that those things are not really to do with the lockdown per se but with the pandemic more generally. | | | |
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