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Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering 22:14 - Nov 23 with 1965 viewsmonytowbray

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/23/no-deal-brexit-to-cost-more-tha

It’s not even LOL BREXIT anymore, just JESUS F’ING CHRIST.

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Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 22:20 - Nov 23 with 1933 viewsBasuco

Don't worry, it is just project fear.
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Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 22:21 - Nov 23 with 1933 viewsjeera

What would he know though?

He's obviously not seen all the memes that say otherwise.

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Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 22:24 - Nov 23 with 1930 viewsfactual_blue

There'll be a deal. All of this stuff is PR flim-flam to make boris look good when he 'secures' a deal. The clue is in the deal we've signed with Canada: to continue with the terms of Canada's deal with the EU. A world-beating deal with a close ally turns out to be the same deal we already had.

We'll have gone through four years of madness, and the murder by a brexiteer of a Member of Parliament, simply to carry on trading with the EU on more or less the same basis as we were when we were a member of the EU. Only now we'll have no input into the EU's decision-making processes.

And, of course, we can send all the darkies back.

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Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 22:26 - Nov 23 with 1918 viewsmonytowbray

Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 22:24 - Nov 23 by factual_blue

There'll be a deal. All of this stuff is PR flim-flam to make boris look good when he 'secures' a deal. The clue is in the deal we've signed with Canada: to continue with the terms of Canada's deal with the EU. A world-beating deal with a close ally turns out to be the same deal we already had.

We'll have gone through four years of madness, and the murder by a brexiteer of a Member of Parliament, simply to carry on trading with the EU on more or less the same basis as we were when we were a member of the EU. Only now we'll have no input into the EU's decision-making processes.

And, of course, we can send all the darkies back.


Thank you for calming my nerves :)

It’s all mental. How did people ever fall for this? How are they still falling for it?

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Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 22:45 - Nov 23 with 1882 viewsjeera

Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 22:26 - Nov 23 by monytowbray

Thank you for calming my nerves :)

It’s all mental. How did people ever fall for this? How are they still falling for it?


I honestly think that some people do realise but don't care.

In fact, a number came out and said so around the time of the vote, and going by a few anecdotal cases that tend to back up that attitude.

We don't know precisely yet how it will affect everyone, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear some of those same people complaining if/when their regular shopping bill goes up significantly. For some people that's the only place they might notice any effect [?]

Some will still say it was worth it, (our democracy etc), and maybe others won't make any connection.

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Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 23:02 - Nov 23 with 1851 viewsclive_baker

There’s zero chance of a no deal.

The whole thing is a ridiculous exercise that serves no purpose but to cause a massive headache, cost a ridiculous amount of money, limit our opportunities and cause irreversible negative sentiment both domestically and internationally. It’s a complete car crash.

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Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 23:58 - Nov 23 with 1773 viewswoiii

Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 23:02 - Nov 23 by clive_baker

There’s zero chance of a no deal.

The whole thing is a ridiculous exercise that serves no purpose but to cause a massive headache, cost a ridiculous amount of money, limit our opportunities and cause irreversible negative sentiment both domestically and internationally. It’s a complete car crash.


It's almost as if Leave was never meant to win and the referendum was really designed to put the EU question to bed for a couple of decades.

Cameron should have had some balls and told the electorate to stick it.... in fact he should have been less complacent and done some decent campaigning beforehand.
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Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 02:25 - Nov 24 with 1729 viewsmonytowbray

Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 23:58 - Nov 23 by woiii

It's almost as if Leave was never meant to win and the referendum was really designed to put the EU question to bed for a couple of decades.

Cameron should have had some balls and told the electorate to stick it.... in fact he should have been less complacent and done some decent campaigning beforehand.


Thought Brexit was the left’s fault though?!

I just finished Hitler’s Circle of Evil and it’s all the same sh1t.

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Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 07:23 - Nov 24 with 1648 viewseastangliaisblue

Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 22:24 - Nov 23 by factual_blue

There'll be a deal. All of this stuff is PR flim-flam to make boris look good when he 'secures' a deal. The clue is in the deal we've signed with Canada: to continue with the terms of Canada's deal with the EU. A world-beating deal with a close ally turns out to be the same deal we already had.

We'll have gone through four years of madness, and the murder by a brexiteer of a Member of Parliament, simply to carry on trading with the EU on more or less the same basis as we were when we were a member of the EU. Only now we'll have no input into the EU's decision-making processes.

And, of course, we can send all the darkies back.


Then we can also look forward to the slow erosion of workers rights.
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Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 07:51 - Nov 24 with 1610 viewsfactual_blue

Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 07:23 - Nov 24 by eastangliaisblue

Then we can also look forward to the slow erosion of workers rights.


Preceded by the fast erosion of workers' jobs in the brexit-voting north.
[Post edited 24 Nov 2020 7:52]

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Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 08:06 - Nov 24 with 1587 viewsTractorWood

Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 23:02 - Nov 23 by clive_baker

There’s zero chance of a no deal.

The whole thing is a ridiculous exercise that serves no purpose but to cause a massive headache, cost a ridiculous amount of money, limit our opportunities and cause irreversible negative sentiment both domestically and internationally. It’s a complete car crash.


I don't disagree but that makes it reckless brinkmanship from BoJo. I'm more of the school of thought that the Tories have preferred a disastrous no deal to a deal as at least then it's on their terms.

I know that was then, but it could be again..
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Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 09:02 - Nov 24 with 1522 viewseastangliaisblue

Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 07:51 - Nov 24 by factual_blue

Preceded by the fast erosion of workers' jobs in the brexit-voting north.
[Post edited 24 Nov 2020 7:52]


Indeed, and sped up by the mismanagement of the Covid pandemic.
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Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 09:08 - Nov 24 with 1513 viewsChurchman

I understand the arguments of a lot of brexiteers and actually agree with them. I also detest the EU. I think it corrupt and basically designed to serve the interests of Germany and France. However, you cannot turn the clock back. After 40 years our economy was so intertwined that leaving was economic madness. We should have pushed to reform it from within.

Having worked on Brexit for 2 years I saw nothing to change my mind. The government in April 2017 had not the faintest idea how trade with the EU, including borders, actually worked. It knew nothing of the consequences of leaving and the more that was learned, the more stupid the whole ideological exercise seemed to me. Madness. The only thing thats pushed me away has been France and Germany’s idiotic pursuit of punishment. Economically a sensible trade agreement is in their interests too so will happen one day. Why not now?

I don’t think things will be as the Guardian paints them. I think a ‘deal’ will be agreed which will at the very least allow trade to continue. If it is not, 80% of the ‘deal’ which is around boring but crucial things like passporting, licensing will happen anyway and a trade deal further down the line in my view.
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Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 09:21 - Nov 24 with 1493 viewsfactual_blue

Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 09:02 - Nov 24 by eastangliaisblue

Indeed, and sped up by the mismanagement of the Covid pandemic.


Hang on....I think I've got it.....by letting northerners die in large numbers from Covid, the government is creating more job opportunities up north!

Genius!

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Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 09:41 - Nov 24 with 1459 viewsGuthrum

Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 09:08 - Nov 24 by Churchman

I understand the arguments of a lot of brexiteers and actually agree with them. I also detest the EU. I think it corrupt and basically designed to serve the interests of Germany and France. However, you cannot turn the clock back. After 40 years our economy was so intertwined that leaving was economic madness. We should have pushed to reform it from within.

Having worked on Brexit for 2 years I saw nothing to change my mind. The government in April 2017 had not the faintest idea how trade with the EU, including borders, actually worked. It knew nothing of the consequences of leaving and the more that was learned, the more stupid the whole ideological exercise seemed to me. Madness. The only thing thats pushed me away has been France and Germany’s idiotic pursuit of punishment. Economically a sensible trade agreement is in their interests too so will happen one day. Why not now?

I don’t think things will be as the Guardian paints them. I think a ‘deal’ will be agreed which will at the very least allow trade to continue. If it is not, 80% of the ‘deal’ which is around boring but crucial things like passporting, licensing will happen anyway and a trade deal further down the line in my view.


I think that's a pretty fair summation of the situation and what's likely to transpire.

My biggest concern being that Johnson attempts some sort of No Deal stunt to keep his fractious backbenchers onside.

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Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 09:53 - Nov 24 with 1449 viewsDarth_Koont

Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 09:08 - Nov 24 by Churchman

I understand the arguments of a lot of brexiteers and actually agree with them. I also detest the EU. I think it corrupt and basically designed to serve the interests of Germany and France. However, you cannot turn the clock back. After 40 years our economy was so intertwined that leaving was economic madness. We should have pushed to reform it from within.

Having worked on Brexit for 2 years I saw nothing to change my mind. The government in April 2017 had not the faintest idea how trade with the EU, including borders, actually worked. It knew nothing of the consequences of leaving and the more that was learned, the more stupid the whole ideological exercise seemed to me. Madness. The only thing thats pushed me away has been France and Germany’s idiotic pursuit of punishment. Economically a sensible trade agreement is in their interests too so will happen one day. Why not now?

I don’t think things will be as the Guardian paints them. I think a ‘deal’ will be agreed which will at the very least allow trade to continue. If it is not, 80% of the ‘deal’ which is around boring but crucial things like passporting, licensing will happen anyway and a trade deal further down the line in my view.


Agree on the whole but think the idea of punishment is a bit off. That might be a bonus of sorts but really we’re just seeing what happens when a bigger trade bloc looks after its interests and the integrity of its market and existing deals and relationships.

The UK can’t have all the benefits of the single market without any of the responsibilities. And it can’t be in a better position than Norway or Switzerland who are also outside the EU but have made significant commitments in order to enjoy those mutual benefits.

This is a Politics vs Reality problem for the UK government, but completely of its own making because they knew Brexit and their clumsy approach could work electorally and that’s all they really cared about.

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Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 10:34 - Nov 24 with 1401 viewsChurchman

Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 09:53 - Nov 24 by Darth_Koont

Agree on the whole but think the idea of punishment is a bit off. That might be a bonus of sorts but really we’re just seeing what happens when a bigger trade bloc looks after its interests and the integrity of its market and existing deals and relationships.

The UK can’t have all the benefits of the single market without any of the responsibilities. And it can’t be in a better position than Norway or Switzerland who are also outside the EU but have made significant commitments in order to enjoy those mutual benefits.

This is a Politics vs Reality problem for the UK government, but completely of its own making because they knew Brexit and their clumsy approach could work electorally and that’s all they really cared about.


If you turn it around, it is undoubtably in the interests of the EU trading block to conclude an arrangement with such a large trading entity as the UK. The cost to it short and long term is significant which means it’s not actually looking after its own interests, economically. If the argument is only that no deal will hurt the UK more than the EU (which it will) then logically that means a primary goal for the EU is punishment.

There is no reason not to conclude a Canada style deal. The insistence on ‘level playing field’ etc is in my view over the top in that it’s not something it insists on with its other trading partners. Attached is an interesting article from the Japan Times earlier in the year. I’m sure there are counter views, but it’s worth a read in relation to the EUs demands.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/03/16/commentary/world-commentary/u-k-

I certainly agree re politics v reality and it’s certainly of the governments making, but the EU is not without culpability. It should never have got to this. Thanks Cameron, you slippery useless idiot.
[Post edited 24 Nov 2020 10:37]
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Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 10:41 - Nov 24 with 1386 viewsDanTheMan

Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 10:34 - Nov 24 by Churchman

If you turn it around, it is undoubtably in the interests of the EU trading block to conclude an arrangement with such a large trading entity as the UK. The cost to it short and long term is significant which means it’s not actually looking after its own interests, economically. If the argument is only that no deal will hurt the UK more than the EU (which it will) then logically that means a primary goal for the EU is punishment.

There is no reason not to conclude a Canada style deal. The insistence on ‘level playing field’ etc is in my view over the top in that it’s not something it insists on with its other trading partners. Attached is an interesting article from the Japan Times earlier in the year. I’m sure there are counter views, but it’s worth a read in relation to the EUs demands.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/03/16/commentary/world-commentary/u-k-

I certainly agree re politics v reality and it’s certainly of the governments making, but the EU is not without culpability. It should never have got to this. Thanks Cameron, you slippery useless idiot.
[Post edited 24 Nov 2020 10:37]


There is a fairly obvious reason why they may want stricter rules with us than they would with Canada, simply being we do much more trade with them and therefore any undercutting would make much more of a difference compared to Canada, and the same goes with Japan.

And obviously this ignores the increasingly annoying fishing issue.

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Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 10:54 - Nov 24 with 1364 viewsGuthrum

2019 quote on Brexit from Antony Blinken, Biden's pick for Secretary of State (for foreign affairs): 'This is not just the dog that caught the car, this is the dog that caught the car and the car goes into reverse and runs over the dog. It’s a total mess.'

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Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 10:56 - Nov 24 with 1350 viewsChurchman

Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 10:41 - Nov 24 by DanTheMan

There is a fairly obvious reason why they may want stricter rules with us than they would with Canada, simply being we do much more trade with them and therefore any undercutting would make much more of a difference compared to Canada, and the same goes with Japan.

And obviously this ignores the increasingly annoying fishing issue.


I don’t see how the volume of trade makes any difference. Surely, there is just as valid an argument that says the more trade you do, the more flexible the rules should be? As the article suggests, that argument of undercutting is based on the false premise that if you are more competitive with a product, you must be trading unfairly. The American argument, if you like. That isn’t always the case and if you go down that protectionism road I think as a country you have a long term problem. Over recent years, EU growth has been stagnant compared to many. Maybe the way it operates is a factor in that.
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Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 11:12 - Nov 24 with 1323 viewsDanTheMan

Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 10:56 - Nov 24 by Churchman

I don’t see how the volume of trade makes any difference. Surely, there is just as valid an argument that says the more trade you do, the more flexible the rules should be? As the article suggests, that argument of undercutting is based on the false premise that if you are more competitive with a product, you must be trading unfairly. The American argument, if you like. That isn’t always the case and if you go down that protectionism road I think as a country you have a long term problem. Over recent years, EU growth has been stagnant compared to many. Maybe the way it operates is a factor in that.


You really don't see how the volume of trade combined with our geographical location would make any difference? If we're able to undercut people right next to us by having much more lax standards, whilst already being a significant trading partner, that becomes a big issue for them.

I'm not surprised they want tighter rules considering this.

As for growth, that depends who you are comparing against. It's not going to compare to "emerging" economies like China or India because the economies in the EU were already heavily developed.

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Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 11:17 - Nov 24 with 1310 viewsDarth_Koont

Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 10:34 - Nov 24 by Churchman

If you turn it around, it is undoubtably in the interests of the EU trading block to conclude an arrangement with such a large trading entity as the UK. The cost to it short and long term is significant which means it’s not actually looking after its own interests, economically. If the argument is only that no deal will hurt the UK more than the EU (which it will) then logically that means a primary goal for the EU is punishment.

There is no reason not to conclude a Canada style deal. The insistence on ‘level playing field’ etc is in my view over the top in that it’s not something it insists on with its other trading partners. Attached is an interesting article from the Japan Times earlier in the year. I’m sure there are counter views, but it’s worth a read in relation to the EUs demands.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/03/16/commentary/world-commentary/u-k-

I certainly agree re politics v reality and it’s certainly of the governments making, but the EU is not without culpability. It should never have got to this. Thanks Cameron, you slippery useless idiot.
[Post edited 24 Nov 2020 10:37]


But the EU can’t compromise to any major extent without disturbing the balance of the regional and global deals (not to mention EU membership rights) that it already has.

It’s the biggest and most important deal for the UK and can be looked at in isolation but that’s certainly not the case for the EU.

And with the difference in size between the UK and the EU, mutual benefits are weighted heavily in the interests of the EU. That’s just the way it is — and always was going to be.

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Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 11:42 - Nov 24 with 1262 viewsChurchman

Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 11:12 - Nov 24 by DanTheMan

You really don't see how the volume of trade combined with our geographical location would make any difference? If we're able to undercut people right next to us by having much more lax standards, whilst already being a significant trading partner, that becomes a big issue for them.

I'm not surprised they want tighter rules considering this.

As for growth, that depends who you are comparing against. It's not going to compare to "emerging" economies like China or India because the economies in the EU were already heavily developed.


No, I don’t. Economies are global now and distance is far less relevant than it used to be. It’s why we have wine and perishable food from all parts. A free trade agreement is just that, whether it’s the other side of the world or 26 miles away. The assumption that the UK would unfairly trade by ‘lax standards’ is an assumption that for me is not necessarily right. It assumes that the EU is at the pinnacle of standards in all things - the American argument if you like. Are the EU going to adopt UK standards if they are higher? Of course not. Why should they?

You need bodies to regulate to prevent dumping, of course, but they should be independent, not resolution determined by the EU. The negotiators bang on about things like state support, but that didn’t stop the German govt rescuing Condor Airlines when Thomas Cook went down the pan. It was probably right for them to do so, but I would argue that the EU is far more active in that regard than the UK.

It should be remembered that trade isn’t always like for like and it’s between companies and people. Most goods and services are not like for like or in direct competition and I see no reason why a trade agreement shouldn’t be agreed. It’s to the advantage of the EU who export twice as much as they import from the UK and for the UK for whom the EU currently amounts to 40% plus of its trade.
[Post edited 24 Nov 2020 11:50]
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Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 11:55 - Nov 24 with 1231 viewsDanTheMan

Gah, Brexit’s all getting a bit real and sobering on 11:42 - Nov 24 by Churchman

No, I don’t. Economies are global now and distance is far less relevant than it used to be. It’s why we have wine and perishable food from all parts. A free trade agreement is just that, whether it’s the other side of the world or 26 miles away. The assumption that the UK would unfairly trade by ‘lax standards’ is an assumption that for me is not necessarily right. It assumes that the EU is at the pinnacle of standards in all things - the American argument if you like. Are the EU going to adopt UK standards if they are higher? Of course not. Why should they?

You need bodies to regulate to prevent dumping, of course, but they should be independent, not resolution determined by the EU. The negotiators bang on about things like state support, but that didn’t stop the German govt rescuing Condor Airlines when Thomas Cook went down the pan. It was probably right for them to do so, but I would argue that the EU is far more active in that regard than the UK.

It should be remembered that trade isn’t always like for like and it’s between companies and people. Most goods and services are not like for like or in direct competition and I see no reason why a trade agreement shouldn’t be agreed. It’s to the advantage of the EU who export twice as much as they import from the UK and for the UK for whom the EU currently amounts to 40% plus of its trade.
[Post edited 24 Nov 2020 11:50]


"Economies are global now and distance is far less relevant than it used to be. It’s why we have wine and perishable food from all parts."

I agree, but we tend to have more from closer neighbours as it makes more economic sense. Why would you get fruit from the United States when you could get it from someone without a few thousand miles of sea between you? For services, this may not apply as much but I can definitely see the argument that it's not as relevant but it is still of some relevance. I'd argue much more so given how much we trade with the EU compared to Canada or Japan.

"Are the EU going to adopt UK standards if they are higher? Of course not. Why should they?"

Depends on what they are. As far as I'm aware, they want us to not regress in areas such as labour laws and environmental laws as that could cause undercutting whilst following them on state aid and competition laws. I don't find that too unreasonable, and I imagine half of the arguing is over who enforces this. I imagine you'd disagree but my position comes from basically believing that our geographic location and economy size makes us a different case to people who are oceans away.

"The negotiators bang on about things like state support, but that didn’t stop the German govt rescuing Condor Airlines when Thomas Cook went down the pan."

There's a difference between saving a failing airline that got caught out by Covid, as opposed to wanting to pump Government money into industries when they aren't failing. Their reasoning around the loans are given here:
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_19_6080

I would agree with your last paragraph, I'd hope that a trade agreement is reached for both our sakes. I imagine whilst the hit would be bad for both sides, we'd come off worse though.

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