| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 15:16 - Mar 26 with 2629 views | Kievthegreat |
Following on from my earlier thread, the impact of the weekends games on our chances in 538's simulations:
Chances of finishing top 2 last weekend:
Sheffield - 89%
Plymouth - 53%
Barnsley - 32%
Ipswich - 26%
After this weekends games:
Sheffield - 76% (-13%)
Plymouth - 57% (+4%)
Barnsley - 37% (+5%)
Ipswich - 30% (+4%)
Wednesday losing to Forest Green was the least likely result of the season in FiveThirtyEight's simulations and it shows in the significant dent to their odds in the simulation. Cheltenham should be a team they can bounce back against, but we just said the same about FGR. This year is going to the wire!
Was tonight a good night for Town Statistically Speaking? by Kievthegreat 21 Mar 2023 23:20Seeing as we're all arguing if it was a good night, I thought I'd check what FiveThirtyEight thought about tonight.
Chances of finishing top 2 before todays games:
Sheffield - 96%
Plymouth - 51%
Ipswich - 33%
Barnsley - 19%
After todays games:
Sheffield - 89% (-7%)
Plymouth - 53% (+2%)
Barnsley - 32% (+13%)
Ipswich - 26% (-7%)
Plymouth haven't really gained much because they were big favourites and that was already baked into their numbers. Barnsley gain a lot because the game was judged as basically coin toss by their simulation, plus they take points off of one of the teams they are chasing. Us and Wednesday are the losers, but it's not by a huge amount, bearing in mind our win against Bolton saw us jump by 13%.
Unless there are upsets in our rivals games, we will see those odds shorten again. However like the Plymouth result, it should have a massive impact as Wednesday and Barnsley are extremely heavy favourites in their games while we have our international break. It will be interesting to see our position before kick-off against Derby. We'll still be 3rd (unless Barnsley put 13 past Exeter), but no-one will have any games in hand on us. Instead we'll have 1 each against Plymouth and Wednesday and be level with Barnsley. Should be a ridiculously competitive end to the season.
[Post edited 26 Mar 2023 15:18]
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| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 15:21 - Mar 26 with 2508 views | Wacko |
Last 4 games Cheltenham are third in the form table behind us and Barnsley - big chance SW will slip up again |  |
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| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 00:21 - Mar 29 with 2224 views | Kievthegreat |
Update after the Barnsley vs Exeter game.
Chances of finishing top 2 before tonight:
Sheffield - 76%
Plymouth - 57%
Barnsley - 37%
Ipswich - 30%
After tonights game:
Sheffield - 82% (+6%)
Plymouth - 65% (+8%)
Ipswich - 35% (+5%)
Barnsley - 19% (-18%) | | | |
| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 02:32 - Mar 29 with 2125 views | Kropotkin123 |
| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 00:21 - Mar 29 by Kievthegreat |
Update after the Barnsley vs Exeter game.
Chances of finishing top 2 before tonight:
Sheffield - 76%
Plymouth - 57%
Barnsley - 37%
Ipswich - 30%
After tonights game:
Sheffield - 82% (+6%)
Plymouth - 65% (+8%)
Ipswich - 35% (+5%)
Barnsley - 19% (-18%) |
Keep it up, enjoying these |  |
| Submit your 1-24 league prediction here -https://www.twtd.co.uk/forum/514096/page:1 - for the opportunity to get a free Ipswich top. | | Poll: | Would you rather | | Blog: | Round Four: Eagle |
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| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 03:31 - Mar 29 with 2102 views | Kievthegreat |
| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 02:32 - Mar 29 by Kropotkin123 |
Keep it up, enjoying these |
Especially as the numbers are going the right way! | | | |
| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 07:57 - Mar 29 with 1932 views | CityBlue |
Sheffield Wed. 78 pts– 19% 86% 55%
Plymouth Argyle 80 pts– 35% 70% 29%
Ipswich Town 75 pts– 65% 56% 12%
Barnsley 72 pts– 81% 41% 5% |  |
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| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 11:09 - Mar 29 with 1778 views | Kievthegreat |
| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 07:57 - Mar 29 by CityBlue |
Sheffield Wed. 78 pts– 19% 86% 55%
Plymouth Argyle 80 pts– 35% 70% 29%
Ipswich Town 75 pts– 65% 56% 12%
Barnsley 72 pts– 81% 41% 5% |
Just to clarify. First percentage is 'Make the Playoffs', second percentage is 'get promoted' (including through playoffs) and last percentage is 'win the league'. | | | |
| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 12:04 - Mar 29 with 1734 views | itfcjoe |
| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 00:21 - Mar 29 by Kievthegreat |
Update after the Barnsley vs Exeter game.
Chances of finishing top 2 before tonight:
Sheffield - 76%
Plymouth - 57%
Barnsley - 37%
Ipswich - 30%
After tonights game:
Sheffield - 82% (+6%)
Plymouth - 65% (+8%)
Ipswich - 35% (+5%)
Barnsley - 19% (-18%) |
Hopefully we have another positive update on this tomorrow! |  |
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| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 12:20 - Mar 29 with 1689 views | Herbivore |
| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 00:21 - Mar 29 by Kievthegreat |
Update after the Barnsley vs Exeter game.
Chances of finishing top 2 before tonight:
Sheffield - 76%
Plymouth - 57%
Barnsley - 37%
Ipswich - 30%
After tonights game:
Sheffield - 82% (+6%)
Plymouth - 65% (+8%)
Ipswich - 35% (+5%)
Barnsley - 19% (-18%) |
Slightly surprised they make Plymouth nearly twice as likely as us to make the top 2. I'd have them as slight favourites but with the gap as small as it is and the respective form of the two teams, I wouldn't say they are twice as likely to make the top 2 as us. |  |
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| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 12:28 - Mar 29 with 1671 views | itfcjoe |
| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 12:20 - Mar 29 by Herbivore |
Slightly surprised they make Plymouth nearly twice as likely as us to make the top 2. I'd have them as slight favourites but with the gap as small as it is and the respective form of the two teams, I wouldn't say they are twice as likely to make the top 2 as us. |
They have got such an easy run in, they will be favourites for every game | |
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| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 21:50 - Mar 29 with 1431 views | Kievthegreat |
| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 00:21 - Mar 29 by Kievthegreat |
Update after the Barnsley vs Exeter game.
Chances of finishing top 2 before tonight:
Sheffield - 76%
Plymouth - 57%
Barnsley - 37%
Ipswich - 30%
After tonights game:
Sheffield - 82% (+6%)
Plymouth - 65% (+8%)
Ipswich - 35% (+5%)
Barnsley - 19% (-18%) |
Update after the Cheltenham vs Sheffield Wednesday game.
Chances of finishing top 2 before tonight:
Sheffield - 82%
Plymouth - 65%
Ipswich - 35%
Barnsley - 19%
After tonights game:
Sheffield - 72% (-10%)
Plymouth - 68% (+3%)
Ipswich - 38% (+3%)
Barnsley - 22% (+3%)
I reckon if they'd lost, Plymouth would have overtake them in the predicted table.
At the moment their simulation returns Plymouth and Wednesday on 95 points and us on 92. Now get a big win Saturday and keep the pressure on! | | | |
| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 21:57 - Mar 29 with 1326 views | Herbivore |
| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 21:50 - Mar 29 by Kievthegreat |
Update after the Cheltenham vs Sheffield Wednesday game.
Chances of finishing top 2 before tonight:
Sheffield - 82%
Plymouth - 65%
Ipswich - 35%
Barnsley - 19%
After tonights game:
Sheffield - 72% (-10%)
Plymouth - 68% (+3%)
Ipswich - 38% (+3%)
Barnsley - 22% (+3%)
I reckon if they'd lost, Plymouth would have overtake them in the predicted table.
At the moment their simulation returns Plymouth and Wednesday on 95 points and us on 92. Now get a big win Saturday and keep the pressure on! |
92 feels on the low side, it's under 2 ppg and would mean 5 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats from our remaining fixtures. Of course, results at this stage of the season are unpredictable, but we've only lost 4 of 37 games so far so think it's unlikely we'll lose 2 of our last 9, especially as we're in our best run of form all season. | |
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| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 22:09 - Mar 29 with 1244 views | tonybied |
| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 21:57 - Mar 29 by Herbivore |
92 feels on the low side, it's under 2 ppg and would mean 5 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats from our remaining fixtures. Of course, results at this stage of the season are unpredictable, but we've only lost 4 of 37 games so far so think it's unlikely we'll lose 2 of our last 9, especially as we're in our best run of form all season. |
Let's keep our feet on the ground it's still possible we could lose 2 or more of our last games. Sheffield Wednesday had only lost 3 games all season up to 2 weeks ago. The thing is, even if we did, the results since we last played now mean it still wouldn't be over. |  | | |
| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 09:05 - Mar 30 with 931 views | itfcjoe |
| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 21:50 - Mar 29 by Kievthegreat |
Update after the Cheltenham vs Sheffield Wednesday game.
Chances of finishing top 2 before tonight:
Sheffield - 82%
Plymouth - 65%
Ipswich - 35%
Barnsley - 19%
After tonights game:
Sheffield - 72% (-10%)
Plymouth - 68% (+3%)
Ipswich - 38% (+3%)
Barnsley - 22% (+3%)
I reckon if they'd lost, Plymouth would have overtake them in the predicted table.
At the moment their simulation returns Plymouth and Wednesday on 95 points and us on 92. Now get a big win Saturday and keep the pressure on! |
Our figure has crept up a fair bit since we last played - so important that we follow up other teams dropping points with wins ourself | |
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| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 09:11 - Mar 30 with 907 views | Kievthegreat |
| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 09:05 - Mar 30 by itfcjoe |
Our figure has crept up a fair bit since we last played - so important that we follow up other teams dropping points with wins ourself |
100%. We've made big gains as Wednesday and Barnsley have dropped points they were judged to be very likely to take, but we need to follow it up with points on the board for it to mean anything. | | | |
| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 09:23 - Mar 30 with 871 views | itfcjoe |
| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 09:11 - Mar 30 by Kievthegreat |
100%. We've made big gains as Wednesday and Barnsley have dropped points they were judged to be very likely to take, but we need to follow it up with points on the board for it to mean anything. |
From when we last played to now - i.e. the international break results I make it:
Sheff Weds - 96% to 72% (-24%)
Plymouth - 51% to 68% (+17%)
Barnsley - 19% to 22% (-3%)
Ipswich - 33% to 38% (+5%)
So in reality over the international break, all that has happened is that they think Plymouth have got more likely and Sheff Weds less likely - but both still seen as overwhelming favourites.
SHows how far Sheff Weds were ahead considering they dropped points at FGR and Cheltenham and are still the most likely to go up - they could/should have been gone by today | |
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| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 09:29 - Mar 30 with 849 views | hype313 |
| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 09:23 - Mar 30 by itfcjoe |
From when we last played to now - i.e. the international break results I make it:
Sheff Weds - 96% to 72% (-24%)
Plymouth - 51% to 68% (+17%)
Barnsley - 19% to 22% (-3%)
Ipswich - 33% to 38% (+5%)
So in reality over the international break, all that has happened is that they think Plymouth have got more likely and Sheff Weds less likely - but both still seen as overwhelming favourites.
SHows how far Sheff Weds were ahead considering they dropped points at FGR and Cheltenham and are still the most likely to go up - they could/should have been gone by today |
Doesn't seem like a huge jump given the recent results by others, just hope Charlton away doesn't comeback to haunt us. |  |
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| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 09:45 - Mar 30 with 811 views | itfcjoe |
| 538 Statistical Update 26/03 on 09:29 - Mar 30 by hype313 |
Doesn't seem like a huge jump given the recent results by others, just hope Charlton away doesn't comeback to haunt us. |
Since we last played, bar Sheff Weds, most sides have done ok
Plymouth - 3 points out of 3 - perfect
Barnsley - 3 points out of 6 - probably seen as par bearing in mind they played Sheff Weds
Sheff Weds - 1 point out of 9 - massive fail | |
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