| Pathway to Survival 12:25 - Jul 30 with 2524 views | ArnieM |
Despite it being less a couple of times in recent years it is often accepted that the points total for survival is around the Forty point mark, for me the majority of those points will need to come at home against most of the teams that will almost inevitably finish in the lower half of the table. I have taken a look at where we can expect/need to pick up points and where we probably have little to no chance of being successful.
Basically and looking at worst case scenario I have written off games at home and away against what I deem to be the "big boys" and where points would in all probability be something of a surprise, which of course could, and probably will happen at some time or another. My feeling is that to hit the Forty point mark we will need to glean around Two Thirds of those at home (27 points) while accruing the other third (Thirteen points) on the road.
This is where I feel we will be picking up the points we need to survive..........
HOME
Free Hits - zero points expected
Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester Utd, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, Aston Villa.
Points Needed - at least a point, hopefully more
Fulham, Everton, Crystal palace, Newcastle Utd, West Ham Utd.
Must Wins - We need Seven, these look the most likely on paper.
Leicester City, Bournemouth, Brighton & Hove Albion, Southampton, Nottingham Forest, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Brentford
AWAY
Free Hits - Zero Points expected
Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester Utd, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, Aston Villa, Newcastle Utd, West Ham Utd.
We Need Four Draws from these
Brighton & Hove Albion, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Fulham, Everton, Crystal Palace.
Three Wins on the Road from somewhere - the most likely
Leicester City, Southampton, Nottingham Forest, Brentford, Bournemouth.
Clearly it's not going to work out exactly like that, there will be shocks, good and bad but I feel the crux of our points will have to come from the games highlighted to see us to safety. Wins from the games listed as possible draws helps no end to ease the pressure on the must wins. Obviously the most important thing is for us to get the right signings done in time for kick off and I am confident that will happen, we also still have to big loans to come in, of that I am certain. For me this all highlights just how tough it is going to be, I mean had we said last season we really needed to win at Leicester we would all have thought it not likely and that looks on paper to be our easiest game to pick up points on the road.
Whatever the outcome I am sure we will give it one hell of a go and it will be exciting for certain, how nice would it be to get something from at least one of our opening Two games !! All just my thoughts for a bit of fun and it will be interesting to see how close it is come next May. |  |
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| Pathway to Survival on 12:41 - Jul 30 with 2396 views | TRUE_BLUE123 |
Id move Newcastle up a tier.
Very Very good team. Comparative starting 11 to united and Chelsea and Spurs imo. [Post edited 30 Jul 2024 12:43]
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| Pathway to Survival on 12:46 - Jul 30 with 2357 views | ArchiRob |
| Pathway to Survival on 12:41 - Jul 30 by TRUE_BLUE123 |
Id move Newcastle up a tier.
Very Very good team. Comparative starting 11 to united and Chelsea and Spurs imo. [Post edited 30 Jul 2024 12:43]
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Whatever points required for survival you can almost guarantee compared to previous years it will be a record required |  |
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| Pathway to Survival on 12:50 - Jul 30 with 2328 views | TRUE_BLUE123 |
| Pathway to Survival on 12:46 - Jul 30 by ArchiRob |
Whatever points required for survival you can almost guarantee compared to previous years it will be a record required |
96 points for survival this time around.
Def Info | |
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| Pathway to Survival on 13:04 - Jul 30 with 2260 views | Vegtablue |
| Pathway to Survival on 12:46 - Jul 30 by ArchiRob |
Whatever points required for survival you can almost guarantee compared to previous years it will be a record required |
Yeah it would be so us if we need 40 points to survive this season. I'm hoping 35+ will do it. |  | | |
| Pathway to Survival on 13:37 - Jul 30 with 2098 views | BlueBadger |
Given that we've taken a substantial hike in the quality of our opponents and are playing fewer games this season, I'm only going to predict 90 goals and 90 points this season. |  |
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| Pathway to Survival on 15:43 - Jul 30 with 1855 views | Guthrum |
That is the rational and cool-headed way to approach this season. If we get tonked by someone like ManC, it's pretty much irrelevant and not worth losing sleep over - so long as we beat or draw with teams at the lower end of the table.
We don't lose easily, haven't had many defeats in the last two seasons. The opposition is stronger, but if we can retain that toughness, it will serve us well. Picking up points from draws could be quite vital.
We may as well go for it against the top teams. Attacking their goal is more likely to get us a success than trying to grimly hold on. We simply don't play that way. Losing 4-3 is more respectable than 3-0 - and it might end 2-3 in our favour once in a while. |  |
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| Pathway to Survival on 16:14 - Jul 30 with 1793 views | Illinoisblue |
| Pathway to Survival on 15:43 - Jul 30 by Guthrum |
That is the rational and cool-headed way to approach this season. If we get tonked by someone like ManC, it's pretty much irrelevant and not worth losing sleep over - so long as we beat or draw with teams at the lower end of the table.
We don't lose easily, haven't had many defeats in the last two seasons. The opposition is stronger, but if we can retain that toughness, it will serve us well. Picking up points from draws could be quite vital.
We may as well go for it against the top teams. Attacking their goal is more likely to get us a success than trying to grimly hold on. We simply don't play that way. Losing 4-3 is more respectable than 3-0 - and it might end 2-3 in our favour once in a while. |
Sane heads and voices will be required. It’s quite possible we’ll be on zero points and -10 goal difference after just two games. Then it’s Fulham which is a very tough game. Then it’s Brighton. It’s going to be tough, really tough. |  |
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| Pathway to Survival on 20:20 - Jul 30 with 1584 views | Guthrum |
| Pathway to Survival on 12:46 - Jul 30 by ArchiRob |
Whatever points required for survival you can almost guarantee compared to previous years it will be a record required |
But we will achieve it, against the odds and to everyone's surprise ...
... by Christmas. | |
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| Pathway to Survival on 20:43 - Jul 30 with 1534 views | FrimleyBlue |
The trick is to ensure when you lose you don't lose badly. Keep those against figures as low as possible so goal difference can be a saviour at the end of the season. |  |
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| Pathway to Survival on 20:59 - Jul 30 with 1501 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
Whilst I get the thinking, I don't believe we will write off any match (unless we have an injury crisis against an in-form top side). I certainly wouldn't expect us to include Chelsea, Man Utd or Villa as "free hits". Even Liverpool with a new manager on the opening day will be one we should be aiming to get something from.
Of course, it is possible someone will give us a good hiding and we shouldn't get too down if it happens. We overcame Leeds doing it to us and we came back and won when Southampton and Wolves did it to us for some of a match last season too. Man Utd, Villa and Chelsea at the very least will drop plenty of points to lower half teams. I bet Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal did last season too. There are then also no "must-win" games against the likes of Leicester as the points can come against those other teams. Losing twice to Leeds didn't see us finish below them because we were more consistent than them at winning against the other teams. |  |
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| Pathway to Survival on 21:15 - Jul 30 with 1459 views | _clive_baker_ |
When was the last time 40 points was required to stay up? Genuine question, but must be an exception rather than a rule nowadays. Seems to me like an ever growing gap between the have's and have nots, and in these days of points deductions I think 35 is the new 40.
What I find to be an interesting stat is (I think I'm correct in saying) only 1 club in the past something like 12 seasons has won double digit games and gone down. That was Cardiff about 10 years ago who won 10, drew 4 and went down in 18th on 34 points. Even that season the 2 clubs above then only won 9 but drew more.
So can we win 10 games or more? Going to be interesting to see, but I don't see why we can't give it a good go. Will be vital to make hay against the 'lesser' sides though for sure. |  | | |
| Pathway to Survival on 05:16 - Jul 31 with 1224 views | MK1 |
It never happens that way. Tear it up and just enjoy watching the season unfold. It's going to be fun. |  |
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| Pathway to Survival on 09:20 - Jul 31 with 1070 views | victorysquad |
Wrong mindset, need to go into each game trying to get 3 points. We can low block the top teams and hurt them when we transition. We did it loads of times last season away where we would often score after 70 mins | |
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