Please log in or register. Registered visitors get fewer ads.
Harry Was Right (Potter, Not the One From Bath). The Only Thing We Should Fear is Fear Itself
Written by commuterblue on Tuesday, 28th Apr 2015 10:19

I fear nothing in the play-offs. Some say we struggle against the big teams. Given the disappointing results against our northern neighbours this might seem credible. But, objectively, what do this year's results suggest?

Eight points from 12. That’s how many we took from Watford and Bournemouth who are going up automatically. Not too shabby at all.

Of the non-avian teams in the hunt for the play-offs we beat Middesbrough once, had two draws against Derby, and took four points from both Brentford and Wolves. P8 W4 D3 L1 is impressive.

Including the games against Norwich that’s P10 W3 D4 L3. This isn’t outstanding, but it does show we hold our own against our nearest rivals. Against the whole top eight this improves to P14 W5 D6 L3 which looks even stronger.

Pessimists might point to the fact that some of those points were obtained during our fantastic autumnal harvest and that the new year brought somewhat poorer fortunes. Undoubtedly we slumped. But we have the momentum back. Since the St Patrick's Day game against Bolton (which I think was my wedding anniversary for that matter) our form reads P8 W5 D2 L1.

So, if we do we make into the play-offs I see no reason why we can’t get to, and win, at Wembley. As we head into the final election countdown all I can say is: I agree with Dougie.




Please report offensive, libellous or inappropriate posts by using the links provided.

Kropotkin123 added 11:58 - Apr 28
Sorry to criticise, but this is factually incorrect, and also avoids actually addressing our form against the most likely play-off contenders.

We lost to Derby at home, so picked up one point, not two.

Against the teams between 3rd, 4th and 6th, we have P6, W1,D1,L4. Against the team currently in 4th we have P2,W0,D0,L2.

Sorry.
1

commuterblue added 12:31 - Apr 28
My apologies for the Derby County shocker.

But if we only look at the teams if 3,4 and 6, that is only six games. And that is very small. Norwich at home was settled by one mistake. Some Middlesborough fans are still not entirely sure how they won the game at theirs, given the balance of play. Hence why I chose to expand to the two promoted teams and the two chasing teams.

Widening up to all these games, in my view, a more balanced view of our chances than just those games.
2

Len_Brennan added 12:55 - Apr 28
Notwithstanding the Derby result, I would have similarly positive feelings about our abilities against our likely playoff rivals, (should we get there).
Watford & Bournemouth are up with very high goals scored figures as they were able to demolish weaker teams on a regular enough basis; something that we were not so good at for a lot of the season. However we are battlers and in matches against the better teams in the league, had the ability to play to our strenghts, put in great defensive performances (up to January & since March at least) and hit teams through Murphy, Sears & previously McGoldrick.
I don't rate Middlesbrough as highly as many commentators do, despite the 4-1 defeat, and would be quite confident that we would beat them over two legs. Bamford is a very good striker when given time & space, as was shown when we pushed forward trying to get back in the game, but I think he can be contained by our centre-halves if we stay tight on him. I also think we would beat Derby, although the return of Chris Martin certainly strengthens them.
I hate to admit it, but I would most fear playing that yellow lot, either in the semis or the final, and would hope that we avoid them in the semis & that Derby then put them out, so we play them in the final. Maybe the last couple of results has affected them and their form is deserting them, but they have players that can hurt us and I don't think I'd get over having our promotin dream ended by them for at least 30 years or thereabouts.
4

Superfrans added 12:56 - Apr 28
To defend commuterblue, the broad point is correct - that we have done reasonably well against the better teams in the division. It should certainly be some comfort as we head towards the possibility of playing Norwich in the play-offs. Our games against them are our worst performances against any of the top teams. Just as we might argue that our two wins vs Watford were an aberration, you could say the same of our two defeats vs Norwich. I genuinely don't think we have anything to lose IF we end up in the play-offs.

The thing we should all focus on right now is that it is still very definitely "IF", not a "WHEN".
1

jas1972 added 13:11 - Apr 28
I seem to recall from much earlier speculation about possible playoff opponents that most if not all of those teams will lose loan players for the playoffs. In particular, I understood that Bamford would not be available to Middlesborough and similarly Dorrans to Norwich (Mr Grabban having conveniently removed himself by other means). Derby will lose both Darren Bent and Tom Ince.
1

Fatboy added 13:22 - Apr 28
I would have preferred it if Bournemouth had waited until the weekend to secure promotion, thereby giving the budgies and Middlesbrough less time to get over the disappointment of missing out on automatic promotion before the playoff first leg.

IF we do get to the playoffs, the corresponding results from earlier in the season will count for nothing. Our best chance will be defending a narrow lead in the second leg of the semi and then playing a team at Wembley that don't travel well (Middlesbrough?).
0

JohnStirk added 13:28 - Apr 28
"The Only Thing We Should Fear is Fear Itself" now was that Potter or was it Roosevelt? I always get those two confused myself...
5

Bent_double added 13:37 - Apr 28
Three of the defeats against top six teams came in our bad patch from Jan to March. We are now in a run of 1 defeat in 8 and have almost a full squad to pick from.

Get the point we need on Sat, win the home playoff leg, and I think we'll get to Wembley!
0

Len_Brennan added 13:51 - Apr 28
@Jas1972: Where did you see the speculation re: the loan players not being available for the playoffs? I was trying to look that up last night, but couldn't put in a google search that came up with the details. I did find a reference to a Jose Mourinho quote about Bamford playing extra games if Middlesbrough are in the playoff unfortunately, but nothing concrete.
1

Palestine added 14:18 - Apr 28
Interesting debate!

FWIW - I think we are the poorest team in the top 6 by someway, but that said we are a battling bunch not easy to play against, and yes we have got some results against top 6 opponents for a change.

I would agree with others, and Len Brennan in particularly, when he says that we could potentially get a result against Boro or Derby....but just cannot see anything other than defeat should we get Narwich in either semis or final. They seem to comfortably have the beating of us... Maybe it is lopsided that we are somehow due a result against them.

Anyway let's see how convincing we are against a team with nothing to play for....Bburn.
0

jas1972 added 14:23 - Apr 28
@Len Brennan:It was at the time that we were in the top two - and I can't find it on the TWTD website now. I could well be wrong about Bamford as his loan is a season-long one which implies that it would include any play-offs. The others however are on timed loans which run out at the end of the normal season and hence they would be unavailable for play-offs - like Johnny Williams on his original loan terms.

As an aside, it seems now to be more difficult to look up past stories that are more than a month or so old - unless I'm not using the system properly.
1

Currie10 added 14:59 - Apr 28
" Some Middlesborough fans are still not entirely sure how they won the game at theirs, given the balance of play. "

I would suggest they took 2 of their 3 chances first half, and we simply couldn't put the ball in the net.

At 2-1 down we went chasing left holes everywhere and they picked us off at will!
1

commuterblue added 15:22 - Apr 28
Words are one thing JohnStirk, but would Roosevelt have actually seen a Dementor when faced with a Bogart. That is the real question...
1

purplealien added 20:41 - Apr 28
I was there in '78 and would love my son to have his own Wembley memory. However, my head is telling me that we'll fall short this time.

It's been an wonderful season, full of highs (and a few lows) and the cause of many a sore throat / hangover :-) If we do make the play-offs it will be an amazing achievement and I will be celebrating as if we've been promoted on Saturday.

If we fall short on Saturday or lose the play-off lottery, I will be looking forward to a full season of Murphy-Sears-McGoldrick tearing Championship defences apart. Automatic next season anyone?


0

MaySixth added 14:44 - Apr 29
We are not in the playoffs.
0

WeWereZombies added 15:31 - Apr 29
JohnStirk, CommuterBlue et al - 'Nothing to fear but fear itself' is sometimes attributed to Eleanor, the Missus of Franklin, Roosevelt although he did use the phrase in his inaugral address - in a strange parallel to the blog she married Franklin on St. Patrick's Day, 1933 so that sitting President, Theodore, could attend as he was in town (New York, not Ipswich) for the parade. Not sure who we were playing on that day though.
0

dusth added 21:44 - May 3
Hi Zombies. Old Teddy Rooseveldt died sometime around the First World war - so I guess that's a typo. '03?
1

WeWereZombies added 21:43 - May 4
Er, yes, dusth - I somehow managed to read Wikipedia's Eleanor Roosevelt page wrong and mistook 1905 for 1933 (which was the year of FDR's inauguration). Apologies
0
You need to login in order to post your comments

Blogs 295 bloggers

About Us Contact Us Terms & Conditions Privacy Cookies Advertising
© TWTD 1995-2024