| An insiders take on Brexit 08:09 - Aug 9 with 4977 views | bluelagos |
Had a catch up with a mate last night, whose current gig is at the home office.
Picked up the following opinions, not going to argue the toss, just relaying what I was told...
The plan is to focus on the backstop, knowing the EU wont materially budge. That means no deal (they want this) with the govt able to point the blame at EU intransigence.
They know this will likely mean an election (just before or after Oct 31) Either way, they are confident they would win an election (brave or stupid) and see this as the way to lance the Brexit Party and take Labour seats oop north.
They believe that by leaving with 'no deal' this will force the EU to give them a better exit and future deal as they will be desperate to get s good deal in place after we have left.
Mate (who thinks they are basicially mad) says there is a religiious like zeal, determination, focus on acheiving 'no deal' as they believe this is the best way to get best deal, and to hell with the consequences. He was clear they are not ready for 'No deal' as the level of preparations would be huge for it to be manageable.
**All the above is just one opinion, and I did point out that the last time we caught up, he was adamant BJ would never be PM as he was disliked by too many MPs, so he was well off the mark on tbat one...
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| An insiders take on Brexit on 11:22 - Aug 9 with 1637 views | Guthrum |
| An insiders take on Brexit on 11:07 - Aug 9 by caught-in-limbo |
You sound more like me than I do. That's a good thing.
Anyway, about your Mark Twain quote. It baffles me how you can get someone who's had such a privileged existence, so divorced from normal people, to run a campaign which is billed more or less as "the people against parliament". Where is the media pulling this man apart"?
Brexit has become as meaningless as dividing the country randomly into two halves, clothing one team in beige and the other grey, radicalising both sides and getting them to fight for their shared values which run no deeper than the colour of the shirts they wear. |
It may come to that yet.
I originally thought not, but things are getting so mindlessly, irrationally polarised, could quite see something stupid happening. The attempts to impose Parliamentary dominance over the government and by the latter to sideline the former are quite reminiscent of 1642. |  |
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| An insiders take on Brexit on 11:32 - Aug 9 with 1619 views | Guthrum |
| An insiders take on Brexit on 10:54 - Aug 9 by chicoazul |
If someone comes along whose aim is to find ways of breaking the system and circumventing proper channels, then the CS will inevitably be a block to that.
What if that someone has won an election on that basis? |
Then they will put votes through Parliament in the proper way, using their majority in the Commons. Johnson and Cummings know they can't (and quite possibly may not win a General Election), so are trying to find underhand means of imposing their minority will* upon the country.
* By that, I do not mean leaving the EU, but specifically doing so with No Deal. | |
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| An insiders take on Brexit on 11:35 - Aug 9 with 1609 views | m14_blue |
| An insiders take on Brexit on 10:54 - Aug 9 by chicoazul |
If someone comes along whose aim is to find ways of breaking the system and circumventing proper channels, then the CS will inevitably be a block to that.
What if that someone has won an election on that basis? |
Then presumably they’d have no problem getting it through parliament. |  | | |
| An insiders take on Brexit on 20:19 - Oct 8 with 1450 views | bluelagos |
Saw mate over the weekend, and he reported all was progressing as before. His original comments from 2 months ago seem to be playing out very accurately at the moment. | |
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| An insiders take on Brexit on 20:25 - Oct 8 with 1424 views | Father_Jack |
| An insiders take on Brexit on 08:30 - Aug 9 by meekreech |
If your mate works at the foreign office he is a part of the civil service and is automatically against brexit as freedom from beaurocracy is against their nature. This will be another form of project fear and intended to attract attention for self preservation of the remainers lack of honour in ignoring the result of the vote for brexit. |
Er £16bn per year cost of additional bureaucracy arising from Brexit according to latest calculations. Probably from experts though, so can be discounted. |  |
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| An insiders take on Brexit on 20:57 - Oct 8 with 1379 views | Swansea_Blue |
That ties in with everything we know and/or have concluded already. So sounds legit. My only inside political info is having been hosted and dined by UKIP’s key policy advisors (don’t ask!) and the Tories in the EU parliament up until 2015. (Shame I stopped going there in 2015, as the last 4 years would have been fascinating). |  |
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| An insiders take on Brexit on 21:23 - Oct 8 with 1350 views | bluelagos |
| An insiders take on Brexit on 20:57 - Oct 8 by Swansea_Blue |
That ties in with everything we know and/or have concluded already. So sounds legit. My only inside political info is having been hosted and dined by UKIP’s key policy advisors (don’t ask!) and the Tories in the EU parliament up until 2015. (Shame I stopped going there in 2015, as the last 4 years would have been fascinating). |
It's playing out exactly as my mate said 2 months ago, uncannily so.
He seemed to think (as do most people) an election was now certain after the govt is forced to ask for extention. No special insights there, but mate agreed that Tories would win a few trad lab seats whilst losing remain seats.
My take, is that Cummings/Johnson are assuming Tories will be happy to stand on a no deal ticket. Which maybe a big assumption... [Post edited 8 Oct 2019 21:25]
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| An insiders take on Brexit on 22:17 - Oct 8 with 1307 views | Oxford_Blue |
Isn’t this confidential information he wouldn’t want you spreading over the Internet. | | | |
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| An insiders take on Brexit on 22:27 - Oct 8 with 1295 views | bluelagos |
| An insiders take on Brexit on 22:17 - Oct 8 by Oxford_Blue |
Isn’t this confidential information he wouldn’t want you spreading over the Internet. |
I think the phrase is Chatham House rules... | |
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| An insiders take on Brexit on 22:31 - Oct 8 with 1291 views | MaySixth |
Issue for me is simple.
Johnson can sell to the electorate what he is trying to do : MAKE BREXIT HAPPEN. Nothing else, pure and simple, easy message, people want that, clear.
Opposition can't really counter that at the moment. What do they stand for? They all have different objectives. Is it another referendum? Article 50 extension? Very difficult message to get across.
Additionally Corbyn is way way behind in the popularity polls and even if those ratings go up, he still probably wont win, as he didnt last time
Real shame that Brexit will cloud some excellent Labour policies |  |
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| An insiders take on Brexit on 22:34 - Oct 8 with 1283 views | bluelagos |
| An insiders take on Brexit on 22:31 - Oct 8 by MaySixth |
Issue for me is simple.
Johnson can sell to the electorate what he is trying to do : MAKE BREXIT HAPPEN. Nothing else, pure and simple, easy message, people want that, clear.
Opposition can't really counter that at the moment. What do they stand for? They all have different objectives. Is it another referendum? Article 50 extension? Very difficult message to get across.
Additionally Corbyn is way way behind in the popularity polls and even if those ratings go up, he still probably wont win, as he didnt last time
Real shame that Brexit will cloud some excellent Labour policies |
Think that is probably why they are 15 points ahead. Tories have a clear position... Labour don't have an easy to articulate one.. | |
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| An insiders take on Brexit on 22:36 - Oct 8 with 1279 views | MaySixth |
| An insiders take on Brexit on 22:34 - Oct 8 by bluelagos |
Think that is probably why they are 15 points ahead. Tories have a clear position... Labour don't have an easy to articulate one.. |
The this for the Tories is BREXIT
The this for the opposition is loads of different things | |
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| An insiders take on Brexit on 22:39 - Oct 8 with 1274 views | bluelagos |
| An insiders take on Brexit on 22:36 - Oct 8 by MaySixth |
The this for the Tories is BREXIT
The this for the opposition is loads of different things |
Can't someone just make Kier Starmer PM and then we get a sensible exit that respects the ref but doesn't leave us up a creek paddleless. | |
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| An insiders take on Brexit on 22:52 - Oct 8 with 1256 views | Churchman |
| An insiders take on Brexit on 08:30 - Aug 9 by meekreech |
If your mate works at the foreign office he is a part of the civil service and is automatically against brexit as freedom from beaurocracy is against their nature. This will be another form of project fear and intended to attract attention for self preservation of the remainers lack of honour in ignoring the result of the vote for brexit. |
I am sorry, that just isn’t correct. As I have said in other posts, the Civil Service develops and implements government policy. They don’t create or block policy. They might give reasons why a policy is illegal or unworkable and this usually forms part of the development process. Civil Servants have their own personal views, of course, but these form no part of how they do their job. I know this for certain.
The Home Office is a big department and has basically three main elements to it doing many different things. Unless this person is a very senior figure I suspect their knowledge will be little more than the bit that affects his/her work and what they’ve read in the media. [Post edited 8 Oct 2019 23:30]
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| An insiders take on Brexit on 23:07 - Oct 8 with 1229 views | jeera |
| An insiders take on Brexit on 08:30 - Aug 9 by meekreech |
If your mate works at the foreign office he is a part of the civil service and is automatically against brexit as freedom from beaurocracy is against their nature. This will be another form of project fear and intended to attract attention for self preservation of the remainers lack of honour in ignoring the result of the vote for brexit. |
Home Office you donut. |  |
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| An insiders take on Brexit on 08:15 - Oct 9 with 1152 views | ghostofescobar |
I see various large businesses around the country as part of my job. Every single one, without fail, sees only negatives from Brexit. Many have already or have contingency plans to move parts of their businesses (and the jobs that go with them) to mainland Europe (taxes, customs rules, paperwork, additional costs). Just one company alone I met with very recently is moving to the Netherlands. That means 120 jobs from their factory in the Midlands gone. I met with a freight forwarder yesterday, so he's pretty up-to-date with Brexit preparations (he has to be) and he thinks a no deal Brexit will be chaos. He met with French customs officials yesterday and they told him a completely different story about new No Deal rules and regs to the story given to him when he met with UK customs officials two weeks ago. |  |
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| An insiders take on Brexit on 09:04 - Oct 9 with 1133 views | ghostofescobar |
| An insiders take on Brexit on 22:31 - Oct 8 by MaySixth |
Issue for me is simple.
Johnson can sell to the electorate what he is trying to do : MAKE BREXIT HAPPEN. Nothing else, pure and simple, easy message, people want that, clear.
Opposition can't really counter that at the moment. What do they stand for? They all have different objectives. Is it another referendum? Article 50 extension? Very difficult message to get across.
Additionally Corbyn is way way behind in the popularity polls and even if those ratings go up, he still probably wont win, as he didnt last time
Real shame that Brexit will cloud some excellent Labour policies |
This is why the lunatic Johnson will win an election quite comfortably I reckon. | |
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| An insiders take on Brexit on 10:19 - Oct 9 with 1103 views | Churchman |
| An insiders take on Brexit on 09:04 - Oct 9 by ghostofescobar |
This is why the lunatic Johnson will win an election quite comfortably I reckon. |
No chance. Just like last time Corbyn and Momentum will rightly fight the election on every day lives stuff - social care, poverty, NHS, crime, spending, education and as before, BJ and co will be too busy playing catch up and trying to defend the indefensible for EU to even get a mention.
Corbyn controls most of the key media, not least social media which is now key to any election - majority of 100+ I reckon. At worse, it’ll be a hung parliament. The polls are meaningless, just as they were when TM took a gamble. | | | |
| An insiders take on Brexit on 11:32 - Oct 9 with 1072 views | ghostofescobar |
| An insiders take on Brexit on 10:19 - Oct 9 by Churchman |
No chance. Just like last time Corbyn and Momentum will rightly fight the election on every day lives stuff - social care, poverty, NHS, crime, spending, education and as before, BJ and co will be too busy playing catch up and trying to defend the indefensible for EU to even get a mention.
Corbyn controls most of the key media, not least social media which is now key to any election - majority of 100+ I reckon. At worse, it’ll be a hung parliament. The polls are meaningless, just as they were when TM took a gamble. |
I hope you are right. I think the Brexit voters, plus those who are just now fed up with it and want to see the back of it, will coalesce around Johnson. The non Brexit voters will split between the Lib Dems, Labour, the Greens etc. JC’s policy messages will get drowned out by Cummings hard Brexit message. This election will unfortunately be about Brexit and very little else. | |
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| "freedom from beaurocracy" on 11:50 - Oct 9 with 1070 views | Dyland |
| An insiders take on Brexit on 08:30 - Aug 9 by meekreech |
If your mate works at the foreign office he is a part of the civil service and is automatically against brexit as freedom from beaurocracy is against their nature. This will be another form of project fear and intended to attract attention for self preservation of the remainers lack of honour in ignoring the result of the vote for brexit. |
Leaving the EU doesn't mean "freedom from beaurocracy" ffs.
What do you want instead? I can guarantee you and the vast majority of people trotting out this ridiculous and meaningless cliche don't want anarchy or complete social breakdown.
I seriously give up. |  |
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| This (n/t) on 11:52 - Oct 9 with 1068 views | Dyland |
| An insiders take on Brexit on 22:39 - Oct 8 by bluelagos |
Can't someone just make Kier Starmer PM and then we get a sensible exit that respects the ref but doesn't leave us up a creek paddleless. |
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