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Trying to cut through the media exaggerations/truths and whilst it is abundantly clear that the answer is 'nobody really knows', but does anyone want to make an educated guess as to how Coronavirus will impact the UK?
Gone within the year and forgotten about?
Grips the nation and we have a summer of working from home/public services shut down?
Mutated virus that kills more people than Spanish Flu?
I suppose it distracts from our football related woes!
It's not that likely to mutate to become significantly more deadly, virus mutations which are more severe are less likely to be passed on because more severe symptoms are more likely to result in quicker isolation, lessening the chance of transmission.
I would have thought that a significant proportion of the population will be infected at some point over the next year, and lots of events will be cancelled over the summer, then we'll get a vaccine in a year or so, and in a couple of years people will have forgotten it ever happened.
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Likely extent of Coronavirus on 16:01 - Mar 5 with 2756 views
This won't happen but it doesn't need to mutate to kill more than Spanish flu - the mortality rate in the same ballpark and it's r0 is a bit higher as well. It doesn't kill young people as easily as Spanish flu though.
It won't because we are much better prepared than 100 years ago but if you did the same numbers:
Spanish flu was thought to have infected 33% of the global population, nowadays that's about 2.8bn people and with the lower mortality rate of 1% that's 28m. With the WHO latest estimate (which seems very high) it's 84m.
As I said though, none of that will happen. Governments are taking it very seriously so that will help. It'll be a big economic hit this year with lots of people working from home and then fingers crossed a viable vaccine next year.
SB
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Likely extent of Coronavirus on 16:03 - Mar 5 with 2732 views
Likely extent of Coronavirus on 16:00 - Mar 5 by gordon
It's not that likely to mutate to become significantly more deadly, virus mutations which are more severe are less likely to be passed on because more severe symptoms are more likely to result in quicker isolation, lessening the chance of transmission.
I would have thought that a significant proportion of the population will be infected at some point over the next year, and lots of events will be cancelled over the summer, then we'll get a vaccine in a year or so, and in a couple of years people will have forgotten it ever happened.
It's not that likely to mutate to become significantly more deadly, virus mutations which are more severe are less likely to be passed on because more severe symptoms are more likely to result in quicker isolation, lessening the chance of transmission.
That all depends. If the more server symptoms are after the contagious incubation period like the current strain then it won't make any difference. Seems news out today says there are already two strains circulating and it's possible one is more deadly than the other. Nobody really knows yet though.
SB
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Likely extent of Coronavirus on 16:06 - Mar 5 with 2724 views
Likely extent of Coronavirus on 16:01 - Mar 5 by StokieBlue
This won't happen but it doesn't need to mutate to kill more than Spanish flu - the mortality rate in the same ballpark and it's r0 is a bit higher as well. It doesn't kill young people as easily as Spanish flu though.
It won't because we are much better prepared than 100 years ago but if you did the same numbers:
Spanish flu was thought to have infected 33% of the global population, nowadays that's about 2.8bn people and with the lower mortality rate of 1% that's 28m. With the WHO latest estimate (which seems very high) it's 84m.
As I said though, none of that will happen. Governments are taking it very seriously so that will help. It'll be a big economic hit this year with lots of people working from home and then fingers crossed a viable vaccine next year.
SB
I literally just spoke with a friend who has recently come back from HK / Burma / Thailand. He got a call from Cathay the other day and they advised him that it is possible someone on the flight back had the virus.
He went for a check up and the nurse told him that they aren't overly concerned about it at the moment but are very concerned in case it mutates into something else.
“Hello, I'm your MP. Actually I'm not. I'm your candidate. Gosh.”
Boris Johnson canvassing in Henley, 2005.
Likely extent of Coronavirus on 16:06 - Mar 5 by Lord_Lucan
I literally just spoke with a friend who has recently come back from HK / Burma / Thailand. He got a call from Cathay the other day and they advised him that it is possible someone on the flight back had the virus.
He went for a check up and the nurse told him that they aren't overly concerned about it at the moment but are very concerned in case it mutates into something else.
Not sure that nurse is towing the official line or even fully understands about the virus then.
WHO put the mortality rate at 3.4%. They are always concerned about seasonal flu yet even the lowest estimates of this virus put the r0 infection rate at x2 seasonal flu and the mortality rate at x2 to x6.
SB
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Likely extent of Coronavirus on 16:37 - Mar 5 with 2563 views
Likely extent of Coronavirus on 16:15 - Mar 5 by StokieBlue
Not sure that nurse is towing the official line or even fully understands about the virus then.
WHO put the mortality rate at 3.4%. They are always concerned about seasonal flu yet even the lowest estimates of this virus put the r0 infection rate at x2 seasonal flu and the mortality rate at x2 to x6.
SB
I don't pretend to know anything about the virus tbh, I'm just repeating what I was told by Fat Greg.
“Hello, I'm your MP. Actually I'm not. I'm your candidate. Gosh.”
Boris Johnson canvassing in Henley, 2005.
Likely extent of Coronavirus on 16:15 - Mar 5 by StokieBlue
Not sure that nurse is towing the official line or even fully understands about the virus then.
WHO put the mortality rate at 3.4%. They are always concerned about seasonal flu yet even the lowest estimates of this virus put the r0 infection rate at x2 seasonal flu and the mortality rate at x2 to x6.
SB
Was talking to someone today who said there is some suggestion there may be slightly different strains, some with lower mortality but higher infection rates. The Wuhan version being more lethal, as possibly the Italian, others less so.
If 50% of population get the virus, which is a conservative estimate, and 1% die, that’s 400,000 dead which is going to hit certain groups (the elderly, young, those with pre existing conditions) hard.
We will all know someone who dies.
That’s very different to seasonal flu, which kills a fraction of that number in the UK.
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Likely extent of Coronavirus on 18:20 - Mar 5 with 2357 views
Likely extent of Coronavirus on 18:09 - Mar 5 by Guthrum
Was talking to someone today who said there is some suggestion there may be slightly different strains, some with lower mortality but higher infection rates. The Wuhan version being more lethal, as possibly the Italian, others less so.
From what I read today it seems to be about a 30/70 split with most people having the worse one.
I do think it's fairly clear that nobody it really that sure at the moment.
Imagine what things must have been like when there weren't thousands of labs able to do quick genetic testing.
SB
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Likely extent of Coronavirus on 18:24 - Mar 5 with 2319 views
Likely extent of Coronavirus on 18:20 - Mar 5 by StokieBlue
From what I read today it seems to be about a 30/70 split with most people having the worse one.
I do think it's fairly clear that nobody it really that sure at the moment.
Imagine what things must have been like when there weren't thousands of labs able to do quick genetic testing.
SB
It has started to take up a significant amount of my time at work.
Completely agree re the facilities. However one of the people I have self isolating reported symptoms three days ago to 111 and is still awaiting a test, so if that is typical, the information flow we are receiving is well out of date at point of publication.
Likely extent of Coronavirus on 18:26 - Mar 5 by vapour_trail
It has started to take up a significant amount of my time at work.
Completely agree re the facilities. However one of the people I have self isolating reported symptoms three days ago to 111 and is still awaiting a test, so if that is typical, the information flow we are receiving is well out of date at point of publication.
Fat Greg got a call from Cathay at 10am and was seeing the nurse at 12.30 - and he had the results back the next day - mind you he is in Blandford Forum and I can tell you that they don't like anything foreign down there.
Apparently they stuck a cotton swab right up his hooter!
“Hello, I'm your MP. Actually I'm not. I'm your candidate. Gosh.”
Boris Johnson canvassing in Henley, 2005.
Likely extent of Coronavirus on 18:31 - Mar 5 by Lord_Lucan
Fat Greg got a call from Cathay at 10am and was seeing the nurse at 12.30 - and he had the results back the next day - mind you he is in Blandford Forum and I can tell you that they don't like anything foreign down there.
Apparently they stuck a cotton swab right up his hooter!
Are you sure Fat Greg’s not private? He has the means to be globetrotting in the first place.
Sh1t just got real. Have booked ferries, hotel and MotoGP tickets for a week in Sept at Aragon and today they have moved the date by a week to fit in the postponed Thai MotoGP.
Right pain in the arse given I've booked a ferry, cabin, hotels and MotoGp tix for 6. Oh and the ferry is non refundable.
*Appreciate this is only a financial cost and not a loss of life which am sure could be real for many people.
Likely extent of Coronavirus on 18:26 - Mar 5 by vapour_trail
It has started to take up a significant amount of my time at work.
Completely agree re the facilities. However one of the people I have self isolating reported symptoms three days ago to 111 and is still awaiting a test, so if that is typical, the information flow we are receiving is well out of date at point of publication.
The numbers are probably 14 days behind the real picture.
14 days contagious with no symptoms then 3-5 days to test.
The media don't highlight this at all though. They act as if people are only contagious when they have symptoms which is totally wrong for this virus.
SB
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Likely extent of Coronavirus on 18:58 - Mar 5 with 2157 views
Likely extent of Coronavirus on 18:32 - Mar 5 by vapour_trail
Are you sure Fat Greg’s not private? He has the means to be globetrotting in the first place.
Definitely, he's skint. He was using up his air miles (and spent half his trip in hospital with Noravirus and sunstroke) - plus he had all his cash nicked whilst he was moaning and groaning in hospital.
Fat Greg says Hi - yes this is him!
“Hello, I'm your MP. Actually I'm not. I'm your candidate. Gosh.”
Boris Johnson canvassing in Henley, 2005.
Likely extent of Coronavirus on 18:58 - Mar 5 by Lord_Lucan
Definitely, he's skint. He was using up his air miles (and spent half his trip in hospital with Noravirus and sunstroke) - plus he had all his cash nicked whilst he was moaning and groaning in hospital.
Likely extent of Coronavirus on 18:58 - Mar 5 by Lord_Lucan
Definitely, he's skint. He was using up his air miles (and spent half his trip in hospital with Noravirus and sunstroke) - plus he had all his cash nicked whilst he was moaning and groaning in hospital.
Given Covid19 has a higher r0 than either swine or Spanish flu it puts the response on perspective.
For those wondering, the r0 is the rate of infection per infected person. SARS was below 1 so that is why it died out, it killed people before they had infected others. Covid 19 is between 1.5 and 3 I believe.
SB
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Likely extent of Coronavirus on 07:10 - Mar 6 with 1657 views
Likely extent of Coronavirus on 18:58 - Mar 5 by StokieBlue
The numbers are probably 14 days behind the real picture.
14 days contagious with no symptoms then 3-5 days to test.
The media don't highlight this at all though. They act as if people are only contagious when they have symptoms which is totally wrong for this virus.
SB
Not sure about that - there are obvious lags in symptoms developing, and patients getting tested, and getting the test results, but there are also an awful lot of negative nests being carried out.
In terms of understanding how prevalent the virus is in the wider population, the number of negative tests is key - we're testing a few thousand people most likely to have been exposed to the virus each day, and not getting much evidence of community transmission yet.
Also, I think the average asymptomatic incubation period is about 5-6 days.
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