| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 05:32 - Mar 10 with 3826 views | The_Romford_Blue |
Coronavirus 0-1 Cheltenham! The will they, won’t they question we’ve all been asking in the last few weeks has been answered — Cheltenham 2020 goes ahead! The countdown is over and it is upon us. I’m once again fortunate to be there for the week with a good mate of mine and feel very pleased to be sitting in plenty of good positions antepost. For many of us who go big antepost across the season for this second week in March, we have all been lucky on the betting front with seemingly less late setbacks and switches than in other seasons. Whether you see this through twitter, friends, family, TWTD or the FatJockey Forum, sit back for four more daily previews of the Cheltenham Festival 2020 where hopefully we can find plenty of winners for the best week in world sport. Good luck to everyone who gets involved and let’s hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound.
1:30 — Supreme Novices Hurdle (Grade 1)
The anticipation, the curtain raiser, the roar! For anyone that doesn’t know, Skybet are doing money back as cash if you lose on this race up to £10 so is obviously worth doing as it is completely risk free. I’ve used it to cover the unraced Mullins horse Berkshire Royal at 25s (he has drifted markedly since) just in case an unraced runner from that yard nabbed one of my three. I wouldn’t have forgiven myself if that was to happen so I have put him in the book. Realistically, I go to war with three live antepost chances, with Berkshire Royal a suitable outside cover bet. It is a horse from that yard that holds my best and most realistic hope though in ASTERION FORLONGE (11/4) who is still my idea of the winner. The 11/4 available looks fair and he is now the correct favourite in a market that had Shishkin top of the pile on the back of two wins in much weaker company. As good as Nicky Henderson’s inmate has looked, this is a big step up and I prefer the horse in the same ownership with solid Irish Grade 1 form for a trainer who has won this on 4 of the last 7 renewals. Another with solid Irish form is Abacadabras who’s win at the top level as well as his second to Envoi Allen (favourite for the Ballymore on Wednesday) is top form. In my view, this race will be going to Ireland with one of those two but along with Shiskin, the main British hopes are Chantry House and Fiddlerontheroof. The latter romped home in the style of an improving horse in the Tolworth at Sandown but will need to step up once again on that. Chantry House is the third of my trio at some big prices but the value on him is surely gone now at 13/2. He looks classy but has not yet run at a proper tempo with all of his races becoming a dash. The Supreme may be at the minimum trip but it is relentless in its nature and there will be no hiding space here. Ability to stay further and maintain the gallop are the two key ingredients to this with Asterion Forlonge take to kick off the week for favourite backers with an end to end victory.
2:10 - Arkle Chase (Grade 1)
I have never been a major NOTEBOOK (10/3) fan like some but his price makes him the clear play here. He’s won both of the main Irish trials for this and arguably should be half his price in the betting. His connections and lack of hurdles form last season perhaps means he’s now a very backable price. Fakir Doudaries is his main market rival but was beaten comfortably over Christmas by Notebook and has even less of a weight pull than that day. I’m surprised to see their prices so close together on that basis. I like Cash Back but he too was beaten by the selection in recent months with Notebook actually hindering his own chance before the start with his antics and yet still managed to win. With the amphitheatre of the Festival, Notebook’s biggest danger could be himself in the minutes before the race. The British challenge is led by Brewinupastorm who ran well here last season in the Ballymore and is two from two over fences. He will need to improve but if the leaders go off too fast (a common occurrence in this race), he will be held up with the intention of picking up the pieces. Esprit Du Large won a Grade 1 last time whilst Maire Banrigh is unbeaten in this sphere. With a host of front runners and Notebook’s temperament issues, this has the feel of an open Arkle but I could see Henry De Bromhead’s market leader winning this well and stamping himself down as a potential top-notcher.
2:50 — Ultima Handicap Chase
This is commonly a graveyard for favourite backers but I really believe that VINNDICATION (7/1 E/W) is the proverbial graded horse in a handicap. Kim Bailey’s charge has always been well thought of with 7 wins from just 9 starts with the two defeats coming at the highest level last season behind Defi Du Seuill. He made hi handicap debut at Ascot in November, being backed into just 2/1 at the off with his comfortable win quickly followed by connections earmarking this race as his target. He goes well fresh and will be spot on for today. It’s hard to be confident in a 24 runner handicap but I really expect him to win this and move on to bigger and better things in the aftermath. He strikes me as a Grand National type in a season or two. The recent money has been for Discorama who could even go off favourite with punters picking up on his excellent efforts at this meeting in the last two years. The Conditional sneaks in off 10st 6lb and did win well in a weaker race here in October. No Comment looks well-handicapped but tends to find a couple too good whilst the versatile Who Dares Wins lacks chasing experience despite running well in both codes previously. Cepage has class but is a doubtful stayer whilst Big River’s jumping rarely holds up to inspection — although he remarkably finished fourth last year in this despite being 25 lengths behind at the bottom of the hill. My second selection in the race is KILDISART (10/1 E/W) who I nabbed last week at 16s. He’s a veteran in these big handicaps and looked like he relished the step up in trip at Aintree last season. His run last time was promising and he has form with Vinndication which makes him a clear danger now dropped to 11st 3lb.
3:30 — Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)
The annual headliner to the opening day now with the lack of a top-notcher given the feel of an open renewal. Epatante heads the market with her win at Christmas perhaps looking better on paper than it actually was with many of the field that day not running their race. She disappointed here last year when struggling up the hill in the Mares Novice and her connections’ reasoning of her recent flu jabs being a hindrance to her on the day seem dubious when they were adamant beforehand she was working well leaves me wanting to take her on. Pentland Hills won the Triumph Hurdle last year in difficult circumstances but has been beaten on both starts this year and is another to swerve in my view. Cilaos Emery was supplemented for Willie Mullins here and looks a threat if producing his best with Ballyandy and Call Me Lord consistent but probably lacking the class of a Champion Hurdler. My angle here is to go for the each way angle with the two opposite pace options — front runner and hold up horse. Of the front runners, NOT SO SLEEPY (28/1 E/W) and PETIT MOUCHOIR (28/1 E/W) are given the nod with four places on offer. The former lost all chance with the shambolic standing start in play in the Betfair Hurdle after routing a decent field of handicappers. If he gets into a rhythm out front, he won’t be stopping. Petit Mouchoir is running as good as ever of late with her price at 28s looking far too big. I do have a small interest on these two at 100/1 and 89.0 and whilst they are likely to be picked up late by something, you can almost guarantee a good run for your money with them both. My final selection is a horse who should be rattling home late if they do go too fast up front in SUPASUNDAE (10/1 E/W). Jessica Harrington and Robbie Power have been bullish about their chances here and his profile is one of arguably the classiest horse in this race. If the headgear works early on and he is able to keep up with the early gallop, he is a big danger. In an open year, I am happy to go for three each way with plenty in with chances in a fascinating race.
4:10 — Mares Hurdle (Grade 1)
For many, this is the clash of the day with the billed head to head between Honeysuckle and BENIE DES DIEUX (8/13). The former is undoubtedly top class and perhaps ought to have had a crack at the Champion Hurdle. She won the Irish Champion Hurdle last time but connections decided this is her optimum trip to set up a clash of the Mares with Willie Mullins superstar Benie Des Dieux. I’m on quite big at 5/4 and I just think she wins. Mullins himself referred to her as ‘perhaps the best Mare I’ve trained’ which is a remarkable statement considering he trained Quevega and Annie Power. Benie won this in 2018 and would’ve romped home but for falling at the last when clear last year — a fall which cost myself a big payout. I expect her to exact revenge on the race and I will be standing near the last hurdle like last year with my fingers firmly crossed as she approaches the last. For those who want to find one at a price for each way purposes, Lady Buttons is much better than a lot of these when at her best and the 28/1 looks overpriced but they’re surely all running for third behind the big two in the market. Roksana beat Stormy Island after Benie’s fall last year but the latter can overturn that form with Elfile closely matched as well. The first of the lumps for the week runs here and I am hoping and expecting Benie Des Dieux to show why I believe she is one of the greatest racehorses in training.
4:50 — Northern Trust Novices Handicap Chase
Just 7lbs separates the 20 runners here in the handicap with the highly regarded Precious Cargo carrying the top weight. This race tends to have less handicap importance than most races of their kind with the best overall horse usually scoring. That honour may fall to IMPERIAL AURA (11/2) who ran a cracking trial for this behind Simply The Betts (runs Thursday) here last time. I am a big fan of that horse and so on collateral form, Imperial Aura really ought to go well here. Trainwreck will be very popular in the market with his excellent second last time in a good contest whilst better things have been expected for Beakstown in this sphere but he’s been beaten on all three starts by decent sorts. Hold The Note travelled like a good horse last time and connections have a decent record in this race so he ought to go well. Galvin makes his handicap debut here for Gordon Elliott and Davy Russell who will both be hoping for a big week. Their charge here has class and gets his ideal ground. The same can be said for ESPOIR DE GUYE (15/2 E/W) who relished the sodden conditions last time. He’s an improver who can run a good race here with 6 places on offer with Skybet. One at a wild price is De Plotting Shed who, at 66/1, did beat a decent sort (Who Dares Wins — runs in the 2:50) last time and is perhaps a slice of value if putting his experience to good use.
5:30 — National Hunt Chase (Grade 2)
The National Hunt Chase closes the show on Champions Day with CAREFULLY SELECTED (2/1) the rightful favourite. I backed him for this a few months back for the race which looks perfect for him. He stays all day and has a touch of class that might make him slightly too good for this field. He will have 23 obstacles to jump but if his jumping holds up, I would expect him to win this cosily. Upon finding out that Jamie Codd was to ride Ravenhill here rather than the Kim Muir, I took the price for this as a top amateur really does make the difference in these races (see last year’s finish for proof). Codd will try to nurse his ride round and if he’s still in contention as they turn for home, he’d have every chance as he has some class as well as a top jockey. Lord Du Mesnil ran a bold race last time at Haydock but I would be very concerned that the race could have left a mark as it was a tiresome battle and this will be a gruelling stamina test. Forza Milan is the brother of my Grand National winning antepost bet One For Arthur and could improve for the step up in trip on that basis but is held by the favourite. If he completes the course, I would imagine Carefully Selected will win this comfortably as he is undoubtedly the best horse in the race. His jumping is the question mark that makes him available at 2/1 rather than 11/8. |  |
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| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 10:07 - Mar 10 with 3540 views | J2BLUE |
Cheers Rommers, enjoy it.
What a great week ahead. Cheltenham and Chanpions League leading into the weekend of sport.
Good luck with your bets. |  |
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| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 10:09 - Mar 10 with 3536 views | StokieBlue |
"Coronavirus 0-1 Cheltenham! The will they, won’t they question we’ve all been asking in the last few weeks has been answered — Cheltenham 2020 goes ahead! "
It really shouldn't be going ahead though. People from all over the country going to a single point then dispersing again, likely different people everyday. It's not a small number - ~250,000 people over the whole festival.
Have a good time though, not your fault it's going ahead and good luck with your betting. I also do understand that cancelling would affect local business but it's not a normal situation at the moment.
SB [Post edited 10 Mar 2020 10:11]
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 10:16 - Mar 10 with 3506 views | J2BLUE |
| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 10:09 - Mar 10 by StokieBlue |
"Coronavirus 0-1 Cheltenham! The will they, won’t they question we’ve all been asking in the last few weeks has been answered — Cheltenham 2020 goes ahead! "
It really shouldn't be going ahead though. People from all over the country going to a single point then dispersing again, likely different people everyday. It's not a small number - ~250,000 people over the whole festival.
Have a good time though, not your fault it's going ahead and good luck with your betting. I also do understand that cancelling would affect local business but it's not a normal situation at the moment.
SB [Post edited 10 Mar 2020 10:11]
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Agree. Not sure how much longer they can allow events like this. Big crowds at Liverpool, Man City and Rangers as well.
It wouldn’t surprise me if we see an announcement on Friday that big events will be cancelled or played behind closed doors. | |
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| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 10:24 - Mar 10 with 3487 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 10:07 - Mar 10 by J2BLUE |
Cheers Rommers, enjoy it.
What a great week ahead. Cheltenham and Chanpions League leading into the weekend of sport.
Good luck with your bets. |
Thankyou mate. We’re en route. Best week of the year. In a fancy hotel for the week. Can’t wait.
Am a good few hundred into Benie so if she can do the job in the Mares, that would be a nice start.
Best week of the year | |
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| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 10:24 - Mar 10 with 3486 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 10:09 - Mar 10 by StokieBlue |
"Coronavirus 0-1 Cheltenham! The will they, won’t they question we’ve all been asking in the last few weeks has been answered — Cheltenham 2020 goes ahead! "
It really shouldn't be going ahead though. People from all over the country going to a single point then dispersing again, likely different people everyday. It's not a small number - ~250,000 people over the whole festival.
Have a good time though, not your fault it's going ahead and good luck with your betting. I also do understand that cancelling would affect local business but it's not a normal situation at the moment.
SB [Post edited 10 Mar 2020 10:11]
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I think they know that if it’s cancelled, they’d have to also cancel all football matches I suppose. | |
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| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 10:47 - Mar 10 with 3438 views | StokieBlue |
| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 10:24 - Mar 10 by The_Romford_Blue |
I think they know that if it’s cancelled, they’d have to also cancel all football matches I suppose. |
Poland has already cancelled mass events with only 17 cases. Barcelona's match is now behind closed doors. The 6 nations matches are postponed. It's likely a matter of time before matches are cancelled in the UK.
I'd also say they aren't quite the same. Football matches tend to be concentrated in a smaller geographical area whilst people will come from all over the country and in larger numbers to the festival.
As I said though, enjoy it, be lucky and lets see how things progress. Hopefully it'll not be as bad as feared.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 10:53 - Mar 10 with 3424 views | Ryorry |
| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 10:24 - Mar 10 by The_Romford_Blue |
I think they know that if it’s cancelled, they’d have to also cancel all football matches I suppose. |
You'd expect them to be really well informed, but I wonder if the powers that be were influenced by the venue being at a racecourse - wide open spaces etc. in *theory*, when the reality is that the stands will be jampacked with people rammed together like sardines, closer than they would be at football grounds where the seating means that at least everybody has a bit of breathing space around them.
Enjoy yourelf Rommy 👠And would it be OK for me to c/p this onto our website? |  |
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| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 11:09 - Mar 10 with 3392 views | TRUE_BLUE123 |
My Missus keeps shouting Fiddler on the roof at me Rommy, looks a decent runner, but you know far more than me and possibly her.
What you saying, worth a go? |  |
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| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 11:23 - Mar 10 with 3362 views | clive_baker |
| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 11:09 - Mar 10 by TRUE_BLUE123 |
My Missus keeps shouting Fiddler on the roof at me Rommy, looks a decent runner, but you know far more than me and possibly her.
What you saying, worth a go? |
You sure she's not asking you to clean the drains? |  |
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| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 12:15 - Mar 10 with 3282 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 10:53 - Mar 10 by Ryorry |
You'd expect them to be really well informed, but I wonder if the powers that be were influenced by the venue being at a racecourse - wide open spaces etc. in *theory*, when the reality is that the stands will be jampacked with people rammed together like sardines, closer than they would be at football grounds where the seating means that at least everybody has a bit of breathing space around them.
Enjoy yourelf Rommy 👠And would it be OK for me to c/p this onto our website? |
Of course - whack it on there.
It’s not as tight (certainly not sardines) as you might imagine! The club enclosure is packed but there’s room to move [Post edited 10 Mar 2020 12:16]
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| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 12:19 - Mar 10 with 3269 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 11:09 - Mar 10 by TRUE_BLUE123 |
My Missus keeps shouting Fiddler on the roof at me Rommy, looks a decent runner, but you know far more than me and possibly her.
What you saying, worth a go? |
Looked very good last time when winning the Tolworth at Sandown and the softened ground is right up his street. He’s improving with every run but I’d be if the view that the Irish form is stronger this year which means that even if FOTR proves to be the best of the British, he may find Asterion Forlonge or Abacadabras a bit too classy.
Also, he’s a massive scopey type so looks as though chasing will be his game next year. Might just lack the speed when they start to quicken down the hill. Can be a shock to the system when these big novices run downhill for the first time and with him being such a big lad, he might not take it as well as some. | |
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| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 12:31 - Mar 10 with 3253 views | TRUE_BLUE123 |
| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 12:19 - Mar 10 by The_Romford_Blue |
Looked very good last time when winning the Tolworth at Sandown and the softened ground is right up his street. He’s improving with every run but I’d be if the view that the Irish form is stronger this year which means that even if FOTR proves to be the best of the British, he may find Asterion Forlonge or Abacadabras a bit too classy.
Also, he’s a massive scopey type so looks as though chasing will be his game next year. Might just lack the speed when they start to quicken down the hill. Can be a shock to the system when these big novices run downhill for the first time and with him being such a big lad, he might not take it as well as some. |
Will be following these threads with interest. Have a good one Rommy | |
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| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 12:58 - Mar 10 with 3216 views | Ryorry |
If we're all posting our selections up? these are mine -
Chelts Day 1 -
1.30 CHANTRY HOUSE 5/1 (1/5)
2.10 FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES 4/1 (1/5)
2.50 DISCORAMA//COGRY both 8/1 (1/4 x 5)
3.30 SILVER STREAK 25/1 (1/5 x 4)
All the above are with b365
4.10 STORMY ISLAND 11.98/1 (1/5, bet-boosted Will Hill)
4.50 IMPERIAL AURA 4.86/1 (bet-boosted Will Hill)
All bets 0.5pt e/w
Also did the placepot for £1! with b365 -
Chantry House
Fakir D'Oudairies
Discorama
Silver Streak
Benie Des Dieux
Imperial Aura | |
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| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 13:25 - Mar 10 with 3169 views | J2BLUE |
| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 12:58 - Mar 10 by Ryorry |
If we're all posting our selections up? these are mine -
Chelts Day 1 -
1.30 CHANTRY HOUSE 5/1 (1/5)
2.10 FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES 4/1 (1/5)
2.50 DISCORAMA//COGRY both 8/1 (1/4 x 5)
3.30 SILVER STREAK 25/1 (1/5 x 4)
All the above are with b365
4.10 STORMY ISLAND 11.98/1 (1/5, bet-boosted Will Hill)
4.50 IMPERIAL AURA 4.86/1 (bet-boosted Will Hill)
All bets 0.5pt e/w
Also did the placepot for £1! with b365 -
Chantry House
Fakir D'Oudairies
Discorama
Silver Streak
Benie Des Dieux
Imperial Aura |
Pure matched betting for me as it stands. Plenty of offers about. Hopefully a few BOG bonuses as well.
GL all. | |
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| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 13:30 - Mar 10 with 3154 views | J2BLUE |
| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 13:25 - Mar 10 by J2BLUE |
Pure matched betting for me as it stands. Plenty of offers about. Hopefully a few BOG bonuses as well.
GL all. |
Just seen William Hill are paying 7 places with some massive prices.
I now have £2 e/w on the 5 outsiders 80/1 and above... | |
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| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 13:46 - Mar 10 with 3109 views | J2BLUE |
| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 13:30 - Mar 10 by J2BLUE |
Just seen William Hill are paying 7 places with some massive prices.
I now have £2 e/w on the 5 outsiders 80/1 and above... |
Heaven Help Us you fooking legend | |
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| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 18:14 - Mar 10 with 2700 views | The_Romford_Blue |
Wow - how this game changes!
Benie beaten - had hundreds on.
But an 11/2 and then a 12/1 winner in the last and the game swings back my way.
We march on to tomorrow you beautiful people x | |
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| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 19:00 - Mar 10 with 2610 views | Westover |
| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 18:14 - Mar 10 by The_Romford_Blue |
Wow - how this game changes!
Benie beaten - had hundreds on.
But an 11/2 and then a 12/1 winner in the last and the game swings back my way.
We march on to tomorrow you beautiful people x |
Well done Rommy pleased you had the last two, I only backed two both your selections that I also liked but both lost, I'm out with friends tomorrow so won't be able to watch😬 be lucky.👠[Post edited 10 Mar 2020 19:01]
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| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 20:37 - Mar 10 with 2501 views | Ryorry |
| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 13:46 - Mar 10 by J2BLUE |
Heaven Help Us you fooking legend |
Nice work J! and cheers for the alert re 7 places at WH.
3 placers (first 2 races + Discorama) + a winner for me (Imperial Aura), so am £0.47p down  for the e/ws, and minus a whole £1.00 for the placepot!! | |
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| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 22:10 - Mar 10 with 2394 views | strikalite |
Sky bet existing customers can select 7 horses, all come in you get £250k, feck me I'd expect £250m back from getting seven come in! |  | | |
| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 22:17 - Mar 10 with 2381 views | J2BLUE |
| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 22:10 - Mar 10 by strikalite |
Sky bet existing customers can select 7 horses, all come in you get £250k, feck me I'd expect £250m back from getting seven come in! |
Someone won the £100k ITV prize for selecting 7 winners today. | |
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| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 23:50 - Mar 10 with 2317 views | SitfcB |
| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 22:10 - Mar 10 by strikalite |
Sky bet existing customers can select 7 horses, all come in you get £250k, feck me I'd expect £250m back from getting seven come in! |
You’d like to think people would back it in an acca as well.
It’s why they do it for free innit.
Entices people to bet. |  |
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| Romford's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1 on 08:39 - Mar 11 with 2199 views | TRUE_BLUE123 |
Day 1 did not go well, so we pick ourselves up and go again for Day 2. These are the picks
1:30 Envoi Allen
2.10 Minella Indo
2.50 The Mighty Don
3.30 Defi Du Seuil
4.10-Tiger Roll the obvious winner but I will have a pop on MightBite I think
4.50 Zoffe
5.30 Appreciate it | |
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