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Putting left and right aside 09:46 - Apr 12 with 1175 viewsBlueNomad

Wouldn’t it be good if a Minister actually answered direct questions on why we are likely to have the highest number of deaths in Europe. Andrew Marr pushing but all we hear is “this is a global pandemic...”. An answer to this is not for political purposes but we are entitled to know. The government of our country is supposed to protect us all.
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Putting left and right aside on 09:52 - Apr 12 with 1129 viewsWD19

All of the questions asked are telegraphed attempts to reverse engineer a headline. It isn’t any wonder politicians of all colours become programmed to avoid a direct answer. Every question is an attempt at a stitch up rather than an attempt to glean information.

This is why debates amongst ex-politicians are often more enjoyable. They know enough to be insightful whilst not having to worry (as much) about being stitched up.
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Putting left and right aside on 10:00 - Apr 12 with 1109 viewsGuthrum

It isn't a question which has an answer at the moment.

For one thing, we may not end up with the highest death toll in Europe. Secondly, the analysis on causes and what the best courses of action would have been cannot happen until this is all over. Thirdly, the global scientific community is still discovering things about the disease, how it is spread and how long it lasts.

Additionally, this idea that the UK will be the worst-hit European country comes from a single study by a US institution, which has already had to revise its predicted figures downwards.

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
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Putting left and right aside on 10:03 - Apr 12 with 1099 viewsGlasgowBlue

You want a minister to answer a hypothetical question? Because as yet we haven’t had the highest number of deaths in Europe.

However, if we do reach the highest number of deaths in Europe it will be down to population density. The UK has by far the biggest city in the EU, London with 9,126,366 population (the second largest being Berlin with one third of that population), and approx 30% of UK deaths are among those living or working in the capital. The Tube will be a major factor in the spread of the virus around London.

This graph shows the death per million people.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVVXC1dX0AIuj9I?format=jpg&name=medium

We are quite a way below Spain, France, Italy and surprisingly Belgium.
[Post edited 12 Apr 2020 10:04]

Hey now, hey now, don't dream it's over
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Putting left and right aside on 10:06 - Apr 12 with 1077 viewsElephantintheRoom

I think you do temd to get an answer to questions from the opposition parties. The tory clique governing us at present are such control freaks that their 'spokes person' just trots out the same mantra and slogans to any question. Sophie Ridge was turned into a comedy show by the evasive and dishonest posturing of the smarmy business secretary.

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Putting left and right aside on 10:06 - Apr 12 with 1081 viewsBlueNomad

Putting left and right aside on 10:03 - Apr 12 by GlasgowBlue

You want a minister to answer a hypothetical question? Because as yet we haven’t had the highest number of deaths in Europe.

However, if we do reach the highest number of deaths in Europe it will be down to population density. The UK has by far the biggest city in the EU, London with 9,126,366 population (the second largest being Berlin with one third of that population), and approx 30% of UK deaths are among those living or working in the capital. The Tube will be a major factor in the spread of the virus around London.

This graph shows the death per million people.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVVXC1dX0AIuj9I?format=jpg&name=medium

We are quite a way below Spain, France, Italy and surprisingly Belgium.
[Post edited 12 Apr 2020 10:04]


As you like to point out - we are not in the EU.

The replies thus far are at least answers. More than we get from ministers.

As for population density - cramming people into tube trains, Cheltenham Festival didn’t help
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Putting left and right aside on 10:21 - Apr 12 with 1032 viewsWD19

Putting left and right aside on 10:06 - Apr 12 by ElephantintheRoom

I think you do temd to get an answer to questions from the opposition parties. The tory clique governing us at present are such control freaks that their 'spokes person' just trots out the same mantra and slogans to any question. Sophie Ridge was turned into a comedy show by the evasive and dishonest posturing of the smarmy business secretary.


Did you not see Lisa Nandy on Andrew Marr this morning?

In fairness to Ms Nandy, every ‘question’ was an attempt to get her to slag off the government in order to generate a headline. I thought it was actually creditable that she steadfastly refused.
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Putting left and right aside on 10:24 - Apr 12 with 1018 viewsGuthrum

Putting left and right aside on 10:06 - Apr 12 by BlueNomad

As you like to point out - we are not in the EU.

The replies thus far are at least answers. More than we get from ministers.

As for population density - cramming people into tube trains, Cheltenham Festival didn’t help


A lot of people were distinctly dubious about it (especially within the town itself) but on the day the Cheltenham Festival started, there were only 373 recorded cases in the UK, mostly with direct links to China and Italy, and just six deaths. On the modelling at the time, it did not seem that great a risk.

While the number of positive tests did start to increase dramatically in the days after the Festival finished, most of those people will have been infected around ten days earlier (allowing incubation time plus a few days to become unwell enough to be admitted to hospital), i.e. before the race meeting started.

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
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Putting left and right aside on 10:27 - Apr 12 with 988 viewsElephantintheRoom

Putting left and right aside on 10:03 - Apr 12 by GlasgowBlue

You want a minister to answer a hypothetical question? Because as yet we haven’t had the highest number of deaths in Europe.

However, if we do reach the highest number of deaths in Europe it will be down to population density. The UK has by far the biggest city in the EU, London with 9,126,366 population (the second largest being Berlin with one third of that population), and approx 30% of UK deaths are among those living or working in the capital. The Tube will be a major factor in the spread of the virus around London.

This graph shows the death per million people.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVVXC1dX0AIuj9I?format=jpg&name=medium

We are quite a way below Spain, France, Italy and surprisingly Belgium.
[Post edited 12 Apr 2020 10:04]


Not strictly true though is it? Our counts are based on 'registered deaths in hospitals' which have been delieberately held back to keep it below the magic 10,000 as long as possible, so they can be fed back in during 'the plateau'. They don't include deaths in the community, particularly care homes, and Pritl Patel even managed to exclude NI, referring just to Great Britain in her monologue.

The spread of the virus on other countries has been more to do with their social structure and close-knit communities than population.... the fact that we have managed to combine the destruction of care in the community, running down the NHS, destroying health central buying systems and systematically cutting budgets for decades leaves us shall we say a tad vulnerable. Having an incompetent government thinking a global pandemic can be held back by slogans was just a straw on the camel's back.

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Putting left and right aside on 10:30 - Apr 12 with 979 viewsWD19

Putting left and right aside on 10:27 - Apr 12 by ElephantintheRoom

Not strictly true though is it? Our counts are based on 'registered deaths in hospitals' which have been delieberately held back to keep it below the magic 10,000 as long as possible, so they can be fed back in during 'the plateau'. They don't include deaths in the community, particularly care homes, and Pritl Patel even managed to exclude NI, referring just to Great Britain in her monologue.

The spread of the virus on other countries has been more to do with their social structure and close-knit communities than population.... the fact that we have managed to combine the destruction of care in the community, running down the NHS, destroying health central buying systems and systematically cutting budgets for decades leaves us shall we say a tad vulnerable. Having an incompetent government thinking a global pandemic can be held back by slogans was just a straw on the camel's back.


Don’t forget we are putting aside left and right in this thread Elephant. Elmswell was very clear on that.
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Putting left and right aside on 10:45 - Apr 12 with 926 viewsgordon

Putting left and right aside on 10:03 - Apr 12 by GlasgowBlue

You want a minister to answer a hypothetical question? Because as yet we haven’t had the highest number of deaths in Europe.

However, if we do reach the highest number of deaths in Europe it will be down to population density. The UK has by far the biggest city in the EU, London with 9,126,366 population (the second largest being Berlin with one third of that population), and approx 30% of UK deaths are among those living or working in the capital. The Tube will be a major factor in the spread of the virus around London.

This graph shows the death per million people.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVVXC1dX0AIuj9I?format=jpg&name=medium

We are quite a way below Spain, France, Italy and surprisingly Belgium.
[Post edited 12 Apr 2020 10:04]


I've not seen any evidence that population density drives variation in mortailty rates, and I'd be surprised if this was much of a factor (although it obviously will be a significant factor at extremes).

Pop density in Germany is 2 / 2.5 times higher than France or Spain, for example.
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Putting left and right aside on 11:10 - Apr 12 with 894 viewspointofblue

The truth is we cannot be sure if we do have the highest daily death rate in Europe. It may be a bizarre thing to say but due to the bottleneck in reporting the number of reported deaths on Friday dud not all take place on Friday. It could be that a (hopeful) plateauing of cases in some areas may have resulted in an increase in the ability to record which resulted in an uplift in numbers. Obviously other nations may have issues with this too so it’s not a clear argument but the scientists have always asked those following the numbers to look a general trends rather than numbers in isolation. I fear too many journalists are seeking headlines and sound bites when pushing this angle rather than actually fulfilling their role.

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Putting left and right aside on 11:28 - Apr 12 with 861 viewslongtimefan

Putting left and right aside on 10:06 - Apr 12 by BlueNomad

As you like to point out - we are not in the EU.

The replies thus far are at least answers. More than we get from ministers.

As for population density - cramming people into tube trains, Cheltenham Festival didn’t help


They have tubes in Cheltenham?
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Putting left and right aside on 11:30 - Apr 12 with 852 viewslongtimefan

Putting left and right aside on 10:45 - Apr 12 by gordon

I've not seen any evidence that population density drives variation in mortailty rates, and I'd be surprised if this was much of a factor (although it obviously will be a significant factor at extremes).

Pop density in Germany is 2 / 2.5 times higher than France or Spain, for example.


Isn’t that the issue though. No one currently knows the answer ! There so many variables to factor in. For instance everyone keeps jumping on the example of South Korea and it massive testing regime, but Japan has achieved the same impact with minimal testing, way below even our level.
[Post edited 12 Apr 2020 11:35]
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Putting left and right aside on 11:54 - Apr 12 with 810 viewsBasuco

On the death rate, maybe it is because we have the least prepared Health service in Europe? Running at close to capacity already. Maybe it is because our government ignored WHO advice to start ordering in extra supplies of drugs and PPE when advised in early March, stopped manual tracking of covid infected people in March and maybe it is just the British way of thinking, "why should we isolate? it won't affect us" Or maybe a bit of all of them. Whatever the reason, everyone over 60 years old should make double sure the isolate properly and take all precautions as it is only a matter of time before hospital beds, ventilators and drugs will be saved for age groups that stand the maximum chance of surviving the virus.
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Putting left and right aside on 12:00 - Apr 12 with 789 viewsMeadowlark

Putting left and right aside on 10:30 - Apr 12 by WD19

Don’t forget we are putting aside left and right in this thread Elephant. Elmswell was very clear on that.


If someone from "outside" the TWTD community was reading this thread (and others) I think it would be fairly clear which particular political view could be attributed to each poster.
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Putting left and right aside on 12:08 - Apr 12 with 764 viewsFtnfwest

Spain and Italy have obviously been badly hit and their death rates per head are double ours or more still, France still ahead of us but the odd one is Belgium which has been badly hit compared to us still again per head. All those diplomats flying in and out maybe
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Putting left and right aside on 12:13 - Apr 12 with 746 viewsWD19

Putting left and right aside on 12:00 - Apr 12 by Meadowlark

If someone from "outside" the TWTD community was reading this thread (and others) I think it would be fairly clear which particular political view could be attributed to each poster.


That’s true. What’s your view on how Alan ‘Howling Laud’ Hope is going as our leader!?
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Putting left and right aside on 12:19 - Apr 12 with 740 viewsMercian

There is a good reason that MPs don't answer direct question. If they give a wrong answer it will be used to beat them with if it does go wrong.
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Putting left and right aside on 12:20 - Apr 12 with 730 viewsMercian

Putting left and right aside on 09:52 - Apr 12 by WD19

All of the questions asked are telegraphed attempts to reverse engineer a headline. It isn’t any wonder politicians of all colours become programmed to avoid a direct answer. Every question is an attempt at a stitch up rather than an attempt to glean information.

This is why debates amongst ex-politicians are often more enjoyable. They know enough to be insightful whilst not having to worry (as much) about being stitched up.


Exactly
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Putting left and right aside on 12:24 - Apr 12 with 723 viewsMercian

Putting left and right aside on 10:03 - Apr 12 by GlasgowBlue

You want a minister to answer a hypothetical question? Because as yet we haven’t had the highest number of deaths in Europe.

However, if we do reach the highest number of deaths in Europe it will be down to population density. The UK has by far the biggest city in the EU, London with 9,126,366 population (the second largest being Berlin with one third of that population), and approx 30% of UK deaths are among those living or working in the capital. The Tube will be a major factor in the spread of the virus around London.

This graph shows the death per million people.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVVXC1dX0AIuj9I?format=jpg&name=medium

We are quite a way below Spain, France, Italy and surprisingly Belgium.
[Post edited 12 Apr 2020 10:04]


Paris is De-Facto the biggest city in the EU although London is the largest urban area. You are right though, If you take England as a separate entity it it is the most densely populated in the world of any country with 5 million or more people, including Japan, South Korea, Bangladesh and Indonesia which are the other big ones. It should be noted though that China and The USA have huge areas of tiny density they do have other huge areas of extreme density like The Pearl River Delta (including Hong Kong and Macau) and The Washington, Philli, NYC, Boston corridor.
[Post edited 12 Apr 2020 12:29]
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Putting left and right aside on 12:26 - Apr 12 with 708 viewsEwan_Oozami

Putting left and right aside on 12:13 - Apr 12 by WD19

That’s true. What’s your view on how Alan ‘Howling Laud’ Hope is going as our leader!?


He's doing a good job I think - it's difficult to be loony in a world where even supposedly normal people are acting like idiots!

You are the obsolete SRN4 to my Fairey Rotodyne....
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Putting left and right aside on 12:31 - Apr 12 with 691 viewsBasuco

Putting left and right aside on 10:30 - Apr 12 by WD19

Don’t forget we are putting aside left and right in this thread Elephant. Elmswell was very clear on that.


Although to be fair to Elephant, I think the comments about NHS and social care started before the period of the last labour government and continued through it, the comment about the incompetent government, while emotive, is looking more and more true. The UK does appear to have been ignoring WHO advice for far too long, and no matter which party you support, it is the party in power that has the choice to buy in extra drugs and PPE or leave it until stocks are running out and hospitals are desperate.
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Putting left and right aside on 12:31 - Apr 12 with 690 viewsMercian

Putting left and right aside on 12:26 - Apr 12 by Ewan_Oozami

He's doing a good job I think - it's difficult to be loony in a world where even supposedly normal people are acting like idiots!


(Looks at avatar) Can you explain to me your equations Paul? I have some scientific education but can't make head or tail of them.
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Putting left and right aside on 12:56 - Apr 12 with 650 viewsEwan_Oozami

Putting left and right aside on 12:31 - Apr 12 by Mercian

(Looks at avatar) Can you explain to me your equations Paul? I have some scientific education but can't make head or tail of them.


Don't get me started....

You are the obsolete SRN4 to my Fairey Rotodyne....
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