| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 10:09 - May 18 with 1200 views | Guthrum |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:24 - May 18 by gordon |
That's a snapshot, rather than an estimate of how many may have had it since the outbreak began. |
While it is a snapshot, it aligns with other similar studies and if the infection level is that low at any given moment, it would take a long time for a significant proportion of the population to be infected, even if R is well above 1. |  |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 10:14 - May 18 with 1200 views | Guthrum |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:24 - May 18 by hype313 |
But what that does suggest is that Covid isn't as contagious as first thought, if we're running the same numbers as France and Spain ie 4% of the population, especially given that we were so slow to react and the fact that mass sporting events took place. |
It's not infectious to the same extent as, say, an unconstrained outbreak of bubonic plague, but is roughly comparable with something like influenza. So quite infectious, but not extremely.
What does seem to be the case is that a high proportion of people who catch it become very, even dangerously, ill. | |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 10:20 - May 18 with 1184 views | homer_123 |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 10:14 - May 18 by Guthrum |
It's not infectious to the same extent as, say, an unconstrained outbreak of bubonic plague, but is roughly comparable with something like influenza. So quite infectious, but not extremely.
What does seem to be the case is that a high proportion of people who catch it become very, even dangerously, ill. |
I'll add to this.
Current research suggests that the longer you are exposed to it the worse you'll suffer. Add also that, unlike flu, this can leave you with damaging long term issues (lung scarring for example). |  |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 10:22 - May 18 with 1172 views | Guthrum |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 10:20 - May 18 by homer_123 |
I'll add to this.
Current research suggests that the longer you are exposed to it the worse you'll suffer. Add also that, unlike flu, this can leave you with damaging long term issues (lung scarring for example). |
Absolutely. | |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 10:25 - May 18 with 1165 views | Guthrum |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:22 - May 18 by StokieBlue |
I don't specifically know why London would have an R that is so much lower than the rest of the country. I would caveat that it's a single study that has suggested this.
If true it could be due to London being hit hard much earlier and people taking it upon themselves not to mingle too much even before the lockdown was announced thus there was an earlier effect.
That is conjecture though.
SB |
The experts seem to be quite puzzled by the low R rate in London. Could be they're just further ahead in the progress of the virus. | |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 10:25 - May 18 with 1163 views | StokieBlue |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 10:25 - May 18 by Guthrum |
The experts seem to be quite puzzled by the low R rate in London. Could be they're just further ahead in the progress of the virus. |
Or it might be wrong.
It's a single study.
SB |  | | |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 10:31 - May 18 with 1153 views | gordon |
Yes, saw that, can't remember if it was posted, she's been excellent throughout. |  | | |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 10:38 - May 18 with 1138 views | BlueBadger |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 09:25 - May 18 by ElderGrizzly |
He is also the Chief of Medicine at a set of private hospitals who are currently crippled by the Coronavirus pandemic and need Government to open up quickly.
I am all for optimism, but it can be dangerous if people take what he says at face value. [Post edited 18 May 2020 9:26]
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Ah now, I'm sure we can trust our government not to pander to the concerns of their friends in private healthcare. |  |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 10:41 - May 18 with 1135 views | Chutney |
Given the Spanish antibody testing suggested a 5% infection rate there, I would be staggered if it's anything close to 30% here.
I think there's definite merit in the suggestion this thing was pretty prevalent back in November / December, with what was described in the media at the time as the 'killer flu'. Heck, this could've been the 2nd wave that we've just been through. Ultimately if the R remains <1 then this thing would, ultimately, die out. |  | | |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 10:49 - May 18 with 1120 views | hype313 |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 10:41 - May 18 by Chutney |
Given the Spanish antibody testing suggested a 5% infection rate there, I would be staggered if it's anything close to 30% here.
I think there's definite merit in the suggestion this thing was pretty prevalent back in November / December, with what was described in the media at the time as the 'killer flu'. Heck, this could've been the 2nd wave that we've just been through. Ultimately if the R remains <1 then this thing would, ultimately, die out. |
I see lots of people saying "I had it in November or over Xmas" but the first registered death was 28th Feb, so if it was rife tail end of last year surely we would have seen sudden daily death spikes, especially given that there was no social distancing and December is the month where millions of us congragate together socially, indoors. |  |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 10:52 - May 18 with 1116 views | StokieBlue |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 10:49 - May 18 by hype313 |
I see lots of people saying "I had it in November or over Xmas" but the first registered death was 28th Feb, so if it was rife tail end of last year surely we would have seen sudden daily death spikes, especially given that there was no social distancing and December is the month where millions of us congragate together socially, indoors. |
I think the vast majority of people (90%+) who say they think they had it without a testing confirmation probably haven't.
Easy enough to talk ones self into believing that a normal winter illness is C19 without any frame of reference for actually what it feels like. The numbers from studies just don't bear out so many people having had it.
SB | | | |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 11:00 - May 18 with 1100 views | DanTheMan |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 10:49 - May 18 by hype313 |
I see lots of people saying "I had it in November or over Xmas" but the first registered death was 28th Feb, so if it was rife tail end of last year surely we would have seen sudden daily death spikes, especially given that there was no social distancing and December is the month where millions of us congragate together socially, indoors. |
Weirdly I had a pretty horrid cough late February, having been in London.
Thought nothing of it until a week or so back when I remembered being ill. I assume it was just that (a nasty cough) but it does play on your mind a little. |  |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 11:00 - May 18 with 1100 views | Chutney |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 10:49 - May 18 by hype313 |
I see lots of people saying "I had it in November or over Xmas" but the first registered death was 28th Feb, so if it was rife tail end of last year surely we would have seen sudden daily death spikes, especially given that there was no social distancing and December is the month where millions of us congragate together socially, indoors. |
Total deaths were higher vs. the prior year to be fair. Now that could be driven by a number of things but I do find it interesting that November + December deaths in the UK in the 65+ category were 7.5% higher in 2019 vs. 2018. Whereas, for under 65's, the data was broadly flat YoY. | | | |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 11:12 - May 18 with 1083 views | gordon |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 10:41 - May 18 by Chutney |
Given the Spanish antibody testing suggested a 5% infection rate there, I would be staggered if it's anything close to 30% here.
I think there's definite merit in the suggestion this thing was pretty prevalent back in November / December, with what was described in the media at the time as the 'killer flu'. Heck, this could've been the 2nd wave that we've just been through. Ultimately if the R remains <1 then this thing would, ultimately, die out. |
This isn't feasible. When we started testing in early Feb, a very, very small proportion were testing positive. Likely the first infections / deaths were a few days earlier than when officially reported, but it's simply not possible for it to have been present in Nov / Dec in the UK. | | | |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 11:23 - May 18 with 1062 views | Chutney |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 11:12 - May 18 by gordon |
This isn't feasible. When we started testing in early Feb, a very, very small proportion were testing positive. Likely the first infections / deaths were a few days earlier than when officially reported, but it's simply not possible for it to have been present in Nov / Dec in the UK. |
I don't think we can reliably say it's not possible that it was over here in late 2019. Ultimately, if it was present in Wuhan in 2019, then its possible that it was also present over here, given the amount of global travel and seemingly high number of asymptomatic carriers. Perhaps it's unlikely, I would agree with that, but not impossible. | | | |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 11:26 - May 18 with 1058 views | homer_123 |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 11:12 - May 18 by gordon |
This isn't feasible. When we started testing in early Feb, a very, very small proportion were testing positive. Likely the first infections / deaths were a few days earlier than when officially reported, but it's simply not possible for it to have been present in Nov / Dec in the UK. |
Possibly not in its current form. There are well over 100 mutations already - so it is possible/ feasible (I'm not saying probable, merely feasible) a variation was here earlier. | |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 11:35 - May 18 with 1043 views | Guthrum |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 10:49 - May 18 by hype313 |
I see lots of people saying "I had it in November or over Xmas" but the first registered death was 28th Feb, so if it was rife tail end of last year surely we would have seen sudden daily death spikes, especially given that there was no social distancing and December is the month where millions of us congragate together socially, indoors. |
It looks like we had it rather earlier than the end of Feb, but not anywhere near as far back as Christmas. The first unusual cases of pneumonia were only spotted in China at the beginning of December, so the original infection can't have happened much more than a week before that. | |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 11:38 - May 18 with 1035 views | Guthrum |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 10:52 - May 18 by StokieBlue |
I think the vast majority of people (90%+) who say they think they had it without a testing confirmation probably haven't.
Easy enough to talk ones self into believing that a normal winter illness is C19 without any frame of reference for actually what it feels like. The numbers from studies just don't bear out so many people having had it.
SB |
Particularly not the assumption that large numbers of people have had it asymptomatically (or virtually so). | |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 11:40 - May 18 with 1030 views | gordon |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 11:26 - May 18 by homer_123 |
Possibly not in its current form. There are well over 100 mutations already - so it is possible/ feasible (I'm not saying probable, merely feasible) a variation was here earlier. |
No, it really isn't. | | | |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 11:56 - May 18 with 1012 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 11:12 - May 18 by gordon |
This isn't feasible. When we started testing in early Feb, a very, very small proportion were testing positive. Likely the first infections / deaths were a few days earlier than when officially reported, but it's simply not possible for it to have been present in Nov / Dec in the UK. |
It had reached France in December 2019. Why not the UK?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/french-hospital-discovers-covid-19 |  |
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| Expert suggests UK has ‘more immunity than estimated’ as study says 19m ‘l on 12:23 - May 18 with 994 views | gordon |
Fair enough, that's a single case on the 27th December, the same could have happened in the UK. I was responding more to the suggestion that people getting ill in Nov / Dec was because the virus was widespread then - that wouldn't be possible. | | | |
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