| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... 02:16 - Jun 2 with 7050 views | SpruceMoose |
...should he lose November's election?
Judging from his performance today where he threatened American citizens with their own military and tear gassed peaceful protestors, and judging from the performance of his goon squad this week, it's a no from me.
His remarks this evening are here for those who are interested in being terrified:
https://www.c-span.org/video/?472684-1/president-deploy-military-states-halt-vio [Post edited 2 Jun 2020 3:02]
|  |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
| |  |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 10:02 - Jun 2 with 2434 views | Libero |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 09:59 - Jun 2 by LankHenners |
You said it yourself - he lost the popular vote pretty comprehensively last time but won in the right places to push the electoral college vote in his favour, which is what he’ll try and do again this time. He’s not against someone as unlikable as Hilary Clinton this time but having Biden as the alternative hardly inspires enthusiasm to vote.
You’d like to think all this would spur people to vote against him but in reality it won’t matter and the election will come down to whether he can convince a similar group of people as last time that he’ll recover the economy and Make America Great Again about 2 weeks before the big vote.
He may lose some ‘moderate’ conservative voters but his brand of ultra-Patriotism may inspire a bunch more disillusioned people in poor areas to get behind him. |
“I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and wouldn’t lose any voters, okay?” |  | | |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 10:07 - Jun 2 with 2423 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 09:59 - Jun 2 by LankHenners |
You said it yourself - he lost the popular vote pretty comprehensively last time but won in the right places to push the electoral college vote in his favour, which is what he’ll try and do again this time. He’s not against someone as unlikable as Hilary Clinton this time but having Biden as the alternative hardly inspires enthusiasm to vote.
You’d like to think all this would spur people to vote against him but in reality it won’t matter and the election will come down to whether he can convince a similar group of people as last time that he’ll recover the economy and Make America Great Again about 2 weeks before the big vote.
He may lose some ‘moderate’ conservative voters but his brand of ultra-Patriotism may inspire a bunch more disillusioned people in poor areas to get behind him. |
Trump only won last time because many Democrats couldn’t bring themselves to vote Hilary Clinton.
This time the choice seems to be between Trump and someone Even older. It is essential the Democrats make the right choice of running mate.
It will all be about getting your support to vote neither candidate will have any 8nteresg in floating voters. The winner will be the side that gets its natural support to vote. |  |
| |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 10:38 - Jun 2 with 2395 views | Libero |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 10:07 - Jun 2 by Pinewoodblue |
Trump only won last time because many Democrats couldn’t bring themselves to vote Hilary Clinton.
This time the choice seems to be between Trump and someone Even older. It is essential the Democrats make the right choice of running mate.
It will all be about getting your support to vote neither candidate will have any 8nteresg in floating voters. The winner will be the side that gets its natural support to vote. |
I've read your post a few times and I don't get it.
Do you not believe in the collusion with Russia?
Are you confident Trump won't implement the kind of tactics discussed in this thread?
Your discussing the upcoming election as if the U.S Electoral system is fair, balanced and doesn't have a history of corruption dating back well before Trump's arrival on the political scene. I'd say that Trump's win is inevitable, it's just about how clean he can make it look. | | | |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 10:44 - Jun 2 with 2386 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 10:38 - Jun 2 by Libero |
I've read your post a few times and I don't get it.
Do you not believe in the collusion with Russia?
Are you confident Trump won't implement the kind of tactics discussed in this thread?
Your discussing the upcoming election as if the U.S Electoral system is fair, balanced and doesn't have a history of corruption dating back well before Trump's arrival on the political scene. I'd say that Trump's win is inevitable, it's just about how clean he can make it look. |
If Democrats exercise their right to vote in sufficient numbers Trump is defeated.
You are right to express your fears but democracy will win the day.
In much the same way as it did when Boris Johnson achieved a majority of eighty. You may not have likeD the result of the last general election, you might not even like FPTP but we all live with the outcome. | |
| |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 10:49 - Jun 2 with 2378 views | StokieBlue |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 10:38 - Jun 2 by Libero |
I've read your post a few times and I don't get it.
Do you not believe in the collusion with Russia?
Are you confident Trump won't implement the kind of tactics discussed in this thread?
Your discussing the upcoming election as if the U.S Electoral system is fair, balanced and doesn't have a history of corruption dating back well before Trump's arrival on the political scene. I'd say that Trump's win is inevitable, it's just about how clean he can make it look. |
Whilst you are right that the same tactics will be deployed that might not be able to overcome simple numbers if people are sufficiently upset to actually turn up and vote.
The 2016 election saw a rise in white voters and a decrease in black voters which was heavily against the previous trend:
It's possible to see a scenario where the entire BAME voter spectrum turns out in much higher numbers to try and ensure he is voted out. If that is a meaningful increase (up 20% for instance) then that will make a difference over the entire electoral college regardless of whatever nonsense Trump attempts.
SB |  | | |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 10:50 - Jun 2 with 2376 views | Chutney |
It was inevitable that he would go to war in an election year, but you would've got decent odds on it being a war with America. |  | | |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 11:07 - Jun 2 with 2344 views | Libero |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 10:49 - Jun 2 by StokieBlue |
Whilst you are right that the same tactics will be deployed that might not be able to overcome simple numbers if people are sufficiently upset to actually turn up and vote.
The 2016 election saw a rise in white voters and a decrease in black voters which was heavily against the previous trend:
It's possible to see a scenario where the entire BAME voter spectrum turns out in much higher numbers to try and ensure he is voted out. If that is a meaningful increase (up 20% for instance) then that will make a difference over the entire electoral college regardless of whatever nonsense Trump attempts.
SB |
Again, very good logical points but are BAME voters really going to get behind Joe Biden?!
If it was someone of the ilk of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez I can imagine the kind of potential scenario you're laying out happening, but I cannot see huge numbers of BAME people voting for yet another old white rich dude with moderate democrat values. | | | |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 11:11 - Jun 2 with 2333 views | Libero |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 10:44 - Jun 2 by Pinewoodblue |
If Democrats exercise their right to vote in sufficient numbers Trump is defeated.
You are right to express your fears but democracy will win the day.
In much the same way as it did when Boris Johnson achieved a majority of eighty. You may not have likeD the result of the last general election, you might not even like FPTP but we all live with the outcome. |
Fair, but you are completely ignoring the events of the last 5/6 years that have created the climate where Hyper-normalisation and a Kayfabe style narratives have enabled the likes of Trump, Johnson, etc to prosper.
Democracy is so heavily weighted now thanks to these and other contributing factors that in my opinion it's not as simple as 'democracy will win the day'
How can democracy exist when the general public are so easily influenced and swayed on both a micro and macro scale? | | | |
Login to get fewer ads
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 11:11 - Jun 2 with 2335 views | StokieBlue |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 11:07 - Jun 2 by Libero |
Again, very good logical points but are BAME voters really going to get behind Joe Biden?!
If it was someone of the ilk of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez I can imagine the kind of potential scenario you're laying out happening, but I cannot see huge numbers of BAME people voting for yet another old white rich dude with moderate democrat values. |
There reaches a point where even you someone you don't particularly like is a better option than not voting and ensuring you continue with the person you absolutely hate who is likely to be oppressive.
We are well past that point in my opinion.
You are certainly right that the democrats could have gone for a different candidate which might have helped but Biden isn't going to be standing in front of the press and state that he is going to put the military on the streets.
It's a case of the least worst in this scenario. It's getting to the point where an independent might even be able to mix things up a bit even if it's just taking votes away from Trump.
SB | | | |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 11:20 - Jun 2 with 2319 views | Libero |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 11:11 - Jun 2 by StokieBlue |
There reaches a point where even you someone you don't particularly like is a better option than not voting and ensuring you continue with the person you absolutely hate who is likely to be oppressive.
We are well past that point in my opinion.
You are certainly right that the democrats could have gone for a different candidate which might have helped but Biden isn't going to be standing in front of the press and state that he is going to put the military on the streets.
It's a case of the least worst in this scenario. It's getting to the point where an independent might even be able to mix things up a bit even if it's just taking votes away from Trump.
SB |
I absolutely acknowledge that voting for someone you don't particularly like is a better option than not voting, especially in such a dangerous and extreme scenario which could potentially have long term ramifications on the countries culture, but that's easy for you and I to say, isn't it?
What I'm trying to say is that nothing about Biden is going to inspire the already low BAME voter turn out. That low turn out is a result of decades of repression, it's bred into people from these backgrounds that it doesn't matter who they vote for because they're not represented and the current situation is only going to reinforce that in my opinion. | | | |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 11:24 - Jun 2 with 2311 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 11:20 - Jun 2 by Libero |
I absolutely acknowledge that voting for someone you don't particularly like is a better option than not voting, especially in such a dangerous and extreme scenario which could potentially have long term ramifications on the countries culture, but that's easy for you and I to say, isn't it?
What I'm trying to say is that nothing about Biden is going to inspire the already low BAME voter turn out. That low turn out is a result of decades of repression, it's bred into people from these backgrounds that it doesn't matter who they vote for because they're not represented and the current situation is only going to reinforce that in my opinion. |
Hence my suggestion earlier that Biden’s choice of running make will be crucial. | |
| |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 11:27 - Jun 2 with 2306 views | StokieBlue |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 11:20 - Jun 2 by Libero |
I absolutely acknowledge that voting for someone you don't particularly like is a better option than not voting, especially in such a dangerous and extreme scenario which could potentially have long term ramifications on the countries culture, but that's easy for you and I to say, isn't it?
What I'm trying to say is that nothing about Biden is going to inspire the already low BAME voter turn out. That low turn out is a result of decades of repression, it's bred into people from these backgrounds that it doesn't matter who they vote for because they're not represented and the current situation is only going to reinforce that in my opinion. |
But the historical trend was being reserved. If you go back the graph I posted the black turnout was increasing steadily over time to the point it was higher than the white turnout in 2012.
I do agree that Biden isn't a great candidate to increase that turnout but could be changed if something like this happened:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-biden-runningmate/protests-eleva
I agree it's easy for us to say but the BAME community needs to be mobilised because all of this will definitely mobilise the Trump base.
SB | | | |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 11:33 - Jun 2 with 2293 views | J2BLUE |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 07:57 - Jun 2 by Libero |
There’s almost 0% chance he will lose mate. |
The betting odds have Biden as the favourite. That doesn't mean anything as Clinton was heavily odds on and still lost but if you really think there is almost zero chance then you can get a tasty 11/10 on Trump to retain the presidency. |  |
| |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 11:42 - Jun 2 with 2270 views | Clapham_Junction |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 11:11 - Jun 2 by StokieBlue |
There reaches a point where even you someone you don't particularly like is a better option than not voting and ensuring you continue with the person you absolutely hate who is likely to be oppressive.
We are well past that point in my opinion.
You are certainly right that the democrats could have gone for a different candidate which might have helped but Biden isn't going to be standing in front of the press and state that he is going to put the military on the streets.
It's a case of the least worst in this scenario. It's getting to the point where an independent might even be able to mix things up a bit even if it's just taking votes away from Trump.
SB |
I suspect an independent would be more likely to have the effect that Ralph Nader did. How might the world be different today if we'd had an Al Gore presidency :(
Unfortunately, I think the result of our last general election is an indication that people (albeit in a different section of the population) won't necessarily vote in sufficient numbers for the least worst option even when it's clear the alternative is a continuation of one of the worst governments in recent history. |  | | |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 12:06 - Jun 2 with 2236 views | Libero |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 11:27 - Jun 2 by StokieBlue |
But the historical trend was being reserved. If you go back the graph I posted the black turnout was increasing steadily over time to the point it was higher than the white turnout in 2012.
I do agree that Biden isn't a great candidate to increase that turnout but could be changed if something like this happened:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-biden-runningmate/protests-eleva
I agree it's easy for us to say but the BAME community needs to be mobilised because all of this will definitely mobilise the Trump base.
SB |
I'd say we know why the black turn out was so high in 2012, no?
I feel that just reinforces my point somewhat that there is a need for a charismatic leader that BAME can see themselves represented in/by/allied with/whatever.
Maybe I'm being a bit negative but I can't see a running mate selection having that much of a positive impact, if anything it could put people desperate for real change even further off in my opinion, as it could come across as tokenistic, cynical and disingenuous. | | | |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 12:06 - Jun 2 with 2235 views | Chutney |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 07:57 - Jun 2 by Libero |
There’s almost 0% chance he will lose mate. |
Absolute nonsense | | | |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 12:07 - Jun 2 with 2230 views | Libero |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 11:33 - Jun 2 by J2BLUE |
The betting odds have Biden as the favourite. That doesn't mean anything as Clinton was heavily odds on and still lost but if you really think there is almost zero chance then you can get a tasty 11/10 on Trump to retain the presidency. |
I work too hard for my money to risk it for such a small return. | | | |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 12:08 - Jun 2 with 2226 views | Libero |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 12:06 - Jun 2 by Chutney |
Absolute nonsense |
Care to elaborate why you think so? Others have been as kind as to and we're having an interesting discussion, please feel free to contribute. | | | |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 12:11 - Jun 2 with 2219 views | J2BLUE |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 12:07 - Jun 2 by Libero |
I work too hard for my money to risk it for such a small return. |
If 110% profit in six months is a small return you should be on Wall Street 
Completely understand though, it's not a market i'd bet on either. | |
| |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 12:12 - Jun 2 with 2220 views | SpruceMoose |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 08:34 - Jun 2 by Guthrum |
I think there's now a high chance of Trump losing in November.
Sure, he has his hard core of supporters, but there aren't enough to win the election on their own (he only just managed it in 2016).
Many floating/mildly conservative voters will have been turned off by his actions over the last 3.5 years, if some of the people I spoke to in the US a couple of years ago are anything to go by.
He has lost his best card with the economy.
His handling of Covid-19 and of these protests has not been good.
The Democrats are not fronted by Hillary Clinton. Trump now has his own array of failures which can be held against him.
It won't be a landslide for Biden, by any means. But Trump may well habe lost enough support in key states (particularly the Midwest) to fall short. |
Quite. This is winnable for the democrats. Trump took several states by the narrowest of margins last time round. Which means that people have to actually show up and vote. Which as we know, doesn't often happen. If he loses Florida, then it's on. But even if he doesn't several 'purple' states are in play. Arizona, NC, Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania... Those are all going to be close.
Tony sample size but the moderate republicans in the wife's family who voted Trump last election gave said they won't this time round. Not necessarily because they disagree with Trump's actions morally, but because they're sick of the chaos every day brings. They're tired, they want a president they don't have to defend every damn day. If that were replicated across the country, Trump would be dust. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
| |
| Two main reasons..... on 12:14 - Jun 2 with 2210 views | SpruceMoose |
| Two main reasons..... on 09:10 - Jun 2 by Bloots |
…...1. His opposition is essentially unelectable (see BJ v Corbyn)
2. He'll cheat. |
So unelectable that he's already been in the WH for eight years?
Biden is the kind of old white guy a lot of other old white people like. He's nothing like Corbyn in that sense. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
| |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 12:15 - Jun 2 with 2201 views | J2BLUE |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 12:12 - Jun 2 by SpruceMoose |
Quite. This is winnable for the democrats. Trump took several states by the narrowest of margins last time round. Which means that people have to actually show up and vote. Which as we know, doesn't often happen. If he loses Florida, then it's on. But even if he doesn't several 'purple' states are in play. Arizona, NC, Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania... Those are all going to be close.
Tony sample size but the moderate republicans in the wife's family who voted Trump last election gave said they won't this time round. Not necessarily because they disagree with Trump's actions morally, but because they're sick of the chaos every day brings. They're tired, they want a president they don't have to defend every damn day. If that were replicated across the country, Trump would be dust. |
Is there a chance Trump's opposition to postal voting might hurt him? Older voters might be more reluctant to go out and vote if the virus is still circulating? | |
| |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 12:15 - Jun 2 with 2204 views | Ryorry |
If his outrageous behaviour continues up the same kind of trajectory as over the past 2 or 3 days, is there some sort of mechanism whereby he could be quietly removed to a mental health institution? |  |
| |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 12:19 - Jun 2 with 2186 views | Chutney |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 12:08 - Jun 2 by Libero |
Care to elaborate why you think so? Others have been as kind as to and we're having an interesting discussion, please feel free to contribute. |
Well, firstly, to say there's a 100% chance of him winning is simply nonsense, but lets assume that was an expression for dramatic effect rather than a statistical proposition, so forgetting that for a second, I do think he's in trouble this time around (hopefully).
Given the slender victory at the last election, it's fair to assume it'll be relatively tight this time around again, as suggested in just about every indicator from polls to odds. Couple that with the deep rooted negative sentiment towards Clinton at the last election, which played a huge part in winning it for Trump. He won't benefit from that this time around. Memories are short too, his handling of this has been a disaster, these latest events won't have helped. Of course there's going to be that core that'll vote for him regardless, but the swathes of middle voters can and will swing. It won't take a lot. I have family in Illinois who voted Trump at the last election, and have no intention of doing so again. They're not alone. | | | |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 12:20 - Jun 2 with 2182 views | Libero |
| Anyone genuinely believe that Trump will go peacefully... on 12:11 - Jun 2 by J2BLUE |
If 110% profit in six months is a small return you should be on Wall Street
Completely understand though, it's not a market i'd bet on either. |
How typically facetious, considering the topic. | | | |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
