| Summer Holidays 2020 (abroad) 13:13 - Jun 28 with 2944 views | Romeo4 |
Would be interested to hear what people are doing about their holidays this year.
Looks like the travel restrictions are going to be eased somewhat over the coming days. Are you looking to get away or cancelling/staying put?
I'm about to reach crunch time regarding making a decision on my holiday (which was booked well before Covid reared it's ugly head) and am in a bit of a quandary. |  | | |  |
| Summer Holidays 2020 (abroad) on 21:51 - Jun 28 with 584 views | Ely_Blue |
We were due to be flying out in 2 days time to the Dominican Republic, BA cancelled the flights/holiday around 20th May
No plans to go anywhere at the moment |  |
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| Summer Holidays 2020 (abroad) on 22:20 - Jun 28 with 551 views | NewcyBlue |
I’m on my way to Ghana, then Congo, Angola, South Africa, Morocco, Spain, back to Ghana, Congo, Angola, South Africa, Morocco, and hopefully home from Spain in September. |  |
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| Summer Holidays 2020 (abroad) on 22:25 - Jun 28 with 549 views | Herbivore |
Doubt I'll go anywhere overseas this year now. I don't really fancy hours and hours of wearing a face mask and then flying and holidaying with a load of restrictions in place. I'd rather wait until things look and feel a bit more normal. Plus I'm moving in the coming months and starting a new job so will struggle to find time to get away in the foreseeable future. [Post edited 28 Jun 2020 22:25]
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| Summer Holidays 2020 (abroad) on 07:37 - Jun 29 with 484 views | textbackup |
Tui cancelled ours on July 13th, have us option of £500 off if we rebook, have done so for next year, in summer holidays, and it’s only an extra £200 more, so all in all not a bad outcome.
Still book for 4 nights in Mauritius in sept for mates wedding, if it goes ahead, If not take a voucher and go next year if he moves it |  |
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| Summer Holidays 2020 (abroad) on 08:23 - Jun 29 with 465 views | StokieBlue |
| Summer Holidays 2020 (abroad) on 15:00 - Jun 28 by bluelagos |
September cycling holiday in UK looking good. Mortorbiking holiday in France/Spain looking good too.
Less than in 2000 people have the virus. Stand 1m away for a period and there is a 1 in 50 chance of transmission. Catch the disease and unless you are vulnerable (I am not) there is a less than 1 in 100 chance of it being fatal.
That means that for every complete stranger you encounter and stay 1m away, there is less than 1 in 10 million chance of dieing from catching the virus. Those odds dont worry me enough to cancel my holiday. |
"Less than in 2000 people have the virus."
Where? And evidence for this? It's a totally unknown number given we haven't tested everyone. Germany thought along those lines last week and then there were over 650 cases in a single factory.
"Stand 1m away for a period and there is a 1 in 50 chance of transmission."
Can you link to this as well please as that doesn't tally with the scientific advice (I don't believe) and it's also dependent on location (inside/outside/confined space etc). How long is a "period".
Doesn't mean you shouldn't go on holiday, you should, just need to be clear about these facts.
As for holidays, we have a long haul holiday to Asia which as been booked for ages and isn't cancelled but no decisions made as of yet. Not sure I fancy 13 hours on a plane with a face mask though.
SB [Post edited 29 Jun 2020 8:37]
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Summer Holidays 2020 (abroad) on 08:29 - Jun 29 with 462 views | Herbivore |
| Summer Holidays 2020 (abroad) on 08:23 - Jun 29 by StokieBlue |
"Less than in 2000 people have the virus."
Where? And evidence for this? It's a totally unknown number given we haven't tested everyone. Germany thought along those lines last week and then there were over 650 cases in a single factory.
"Stand 1m away for a period and there is a 1 in 50 chance of transmission."
Can you link to this as well please as that doesn't tally with the scientific advice (I don't believe) and it's also dependent on location (inside/outside/confined space etc). How long is a "period".
Doesn't mean you shouldn't go on holiday, you should, just need to be clear about these facts.
As for holidays, we have a long haul holiday to Asia which as been booked for ages and isn't cancelled but no decisions made as of yet. Not sure I fancy 13 hours on a plane with a face mask though.
SB [Post edited 29 Jun 2020 8:37]
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Having done half an hour on the bus with a face mask, the idea of 13 hours on a plane with one sounds horrific. | |
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| Summer Holidays 2020 (abroad) on 08:44 - Jun 29 with 447 views | bluelagos |
| Summer Holidays 2020 (abroad) on 08:23 - Jun 29 by StokieBlue |
"Less than in 2000 people have the virus."
Where? And evidence for this? It's a totally unknown number given we haven't tested everyone. Germany thought along those lines last week and then there were over 650 cases in a single factory.
"Stand 1m away for a period and there is a 1 in 50 chance of transmission."
Can you link to this as well please as that doesn't tally with the scientific advice (I don't believe) and it's also dependent on location (inside/outside/confined space etc). How long is a "period".
Doesn't mean you shouldn't go on holiday, you should, just need to be clear about these facts.
As for holidays, we have a long haul holiday to Asia which as been booked for ages and isn't cancelled but no decisions made as of yet. Not sure I fancy 13 hours on a plane with a face mask though.
SB [Post edited 29 Jun 2020 8:37]
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2000×50x100 is 10m.
That would be the odds for dieing standing a meter away from a random. (In UK where current infections infections are 1 in 2000 people and the odds are 2% if standing a meter away from an infected person.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditio
Quick google, gov figures 1 in 1100 (June 5 to 21st). Will be different in different destinations. Germany far lower, Peru higher obv.
The 2% . Some figures here.
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-06-01/two-metre-distance-more-effective-than-one-a
Even if you take 1 in 1100 x 2.6% × 1% death rate (all of these are estimates) thats around 1 in 4.4million.
Go on hols (where the rates are lower) and the figures improve.
Am not pretending the figures are exact, but the odds on you catching CV and dieing are incredibly small and I think we all should understand that. Yep, take sensible precautions but staying at home for fear of catching the virus (unless you vulnerable) seems ott to me. Appreciate others will be more anxious. |  |
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| Summer Holidays 2020 (abroad) on 08:49 - Jun 29 with 447 views | itfcjoe |
I was planning on staying in UK this summer as a lot of hassle to get away when my kids are their current ages (3.5 and 1.5), and have a trip to Madeira booked with in-laws across New Years.
Center Parcs in November (rearranged from May) and will have a caravan break or something when I can, as left one early when this outbreak happened but that will do for me and the kids at the age they are.
I think flying going to be such a nightmare, will be bearable as an adult when can just stick headphones in and get on with following the rules and ignoring the idiots who argue and don't - with kids no thanks! |  |
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| Summer Holidays 2020 (abroad) on 08:52 - Jun 29 with 438 views | StokieBlue |
| Summer Holidays 2020 (abroad) on 08:44 - Jun 29 by bluelagos |
2000×50x100 is 10m.
That would be the odds for dieing standing a meter away from a random. (In UK where current infections infections are 1 in 2000 people and the odds are 2% if standing a meter away from an infected person.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditio
Quick google, gov figures 1 in 1100 (June 5 to 21st). Will be different in different destinations. Germany far lower, Peru higher obv.
The 2% . Some figures here.
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-06-01/two-metre-distance-more-effective-than-one-a
Even if you take 1 in 1100 x 2.6% × 1% death rate (all of these are estimates) thats around 1 in 4.4million.
Go on hols (where the rates are lower) and the figures improve.
Am not pretending the figures are exact, but the odds on you catching CV and dieing are incredibly small and I think we all should understand that. Yep, take sensible precautions but staying at home for fear of catching the virus (unless you vulnerable) seems ott to me. Appreciate others will be more anxious. |
Thanks for the links. I've been very busy the last 10 days and haven't been keeping up with much news or analysis.
That's very back-of-the-envelope set of calculations which some huge assumptions (which you have acknowledged). I don't think you can linearly extrapolate the odds in the way you have given the unknown variables. It is good to approach the issue and make decisions using the data as you have.
On your final paragraph, wasn't the point of the lockdown that people didn't catch it and pass it on to those who are more vulnerable? Citing ones personal odds of dying when they are low completely takes this out of the decision making process doesn't it?
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Summer Holidays 2020 (abroad) on 08:53 - Jun 29 with 436 views | PrideOfTheEast |
| Summer Holidays 2020 (abroad) on 08:49 - Jun 29 by itfcjoe |
I was planning on staying in UK this summer as a lot of hassle to get away when my kids are their current ages (3.5 and 1.5), and have a trip to Madeira booked with in-laws across New Years.
Center Parcs in November (rearranged from May) and will have a caravan break or something when I can, as left one early when this outbreak happened but that will do for me and the kids at the age they are.
I think flying going to be such a nightmare, will be bearable as an adult when can just stick headphones in and get on with following the rules and ignoring the idiots who argue and don't - with kids no thanks! |
Yep no desire whatsoever to deal with airports with kids!
If we do anything it'll be something in the UK. |  | | |
| Summer Holidays 2020 (abroad) on 08:59 - Jun 29 with 431 views | bluelagos |
| Summer Holidays 2020 (abroad) on 08:52 - Jun 29 by StokieBlue |
Thanks for the links. I've been very busy the last 10 days and haven't been keeping up with much news or analysis.
That's very back-of-the-envelope set of calculations which some huge assumptions (which you have acknowledged). I don't think you can linearly extrapolate the odds in the way you have given the unknown variables. It is good to approach the issue and make decisions using the data as you have.
On your final paragraph, wasn't the point of the lockdown that people didn't catch it and pass it on to those who are more vulnerable? Citing ones personal odds of dying when they are low completely takes this out of the decision making process doesn't it?
SB |
An not arguing against the lockdown. I think it was necessary and may be so again to stop the spread. No arguments from me there.
Dont quite follow your last point.
The odds i estimate are only for 1 encounter. So if we go about getting up close fo 100s of people the odds change dramatically. So I wont be hanging out at any raves/nightclubs anytime soon.
But I do feel that many people over worry about say seeing people in friendship groups outside which strikes me as way lower risk than say factories (see Germany) | |
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