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U.K. “over-estimating” Covid-19 deaths 08:54 - Aug 1 with 1213 viewspointofblue

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-uk-overestimates-coronavirus-death-toll.h

This report is a couple of weeks old so apologies of this has been posted before or proven incorrect in the time since. As said elsewhere, this could lead into a huge revision of statistics once we return to more normal times and the impact of the virus can be looked at even more thoroughly. The big question is, even if this is the case, why is the excess death number so much higher than the average? Some of that will be directly due to Covid-19 but presumably the rest, if the above link is correct, must be due to other reasons - people not seeking consultation in time, treatment being delayed, an impact on mental health due to the strains of not seeing other people/losing employment or livelihoods? For me this is even more important as it says something about as a society and the way we’re being governed if Covid-19 is possibly causing a large number of indirect deaths.

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U.K. “over-estimating” Covid-19 deaths on 09:08 - Aug 1 with 1174 viewsBasuco

But, in January and February the level of death's recorded in the UK was below the 5 year average, since then the level is somewhere between 65,000 to 70,000 death's above the 5 year average. In simple statistical terms it shows that 70,000 Covid 19 deaths would be a good estimate, if the 45.000 Covid death figure is underestimated what has caused the huge increase in UK Death's in March, April, May and June?
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U.K. “over-estimating” Covid-19 deaths on 09:20 - Aug 1 with 1133 viewsKeno

U.K. “over-estimating” Covid-19 deaths on 09:08 - Aug 1 by Basuco

But, in January and February the level of death's recorded in the UK was below the 5 year average, since then the level is somewhere between 65,000 to 70,000 death's above the 5 year average. In simple statistical terms it shows that 70,000 Covid 19 deaths would be a good estimate, if the 45.000 Covid death figure is underestimated what has caused the huge increase in UK Death's in March, April, May and June?



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U.K. “over-estimating” Covid-19 deaths on 09:23 - Aug 1 with 1122 viewspointofblue

U.K. “over-estimating” Covid-19 deaths on 09:20 - Aug 1 by Keno



No - the Daily Star reckons the aliens haven’t brought a virus back yet but will do.

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U.K. “over-estimating” Covid-19 deaths on 09:29 - Aug 1 with 1107 viewsKeno

U.K. “over-estimating” Covid-19 deaths on 09:23 - Aug 1 by pointofblue

No - the Daily Star reckons the aliens haven’t brought a virus back yet but will do.


but the Express reckons Princess Di will come back and cure us all

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U.K. “over-estimating” Covid-19 deaths on 09:41 - Aug 1 with 1083 viewsGuthrum

On that last point, not sure it is entirely fair to criticize when a massive and unheralded burden has suddenly been thrown onto the healthcare system.

Even if other treatments were cancelled, as it turned out, unnecessarily because the peak demand was lower then feared, it was entirely rational to clear the decks as much as possible when the situation was first developing. Plus understanding of the virus has developed. Treatments and resources at first considered vital (e.g. ventilators) turned out to be less necessary.

Social distancing and isolation rules have made informal care networks (which provide a vast amount of the support to elderly and vulnerable people in the UK) much more difficult to maintain.

One also has to factor in the aspect of public fear. People avoiding going to the doctors and, especially, hospital through nervousness over going into an environment where the illness was known to be present.

Not much the government could have done about those, particularly the latter two.

On the matter of mental health, perhaps this crisis has given some highlight to the number of people in this country suffering in that respect, created some empathy and maybe might result in more being done to tackle this issue.

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U.K. “over-estimating” Covid-19 deaths on 09:53 - Aug 1 with 1038 viewsbluelagos

So we have a large number of excess deaths - circa 70k. Of which around 2/3 are directly down to the virus. The others are either also (undiagnosed) CV deaths or indirect deaths due to some of the reasons you highlight.

The number of indirect highlights the negative impacts of the lockdown and the NHS prioritising CV patients and stopping many other things (Screening / non priority treatment) - which was inevitable I think.

So we know the lockdown has had a very negative (unintended) impact on the nation's health. But the alternative, no lockdown, was estimated to be significantly worse than the 70k deaths that have occurred. Over 500k deaths was estimated if we did nothing at all.

Debating how many of the 70k excess deaths were direct or indirect deaths is a bit of a red herring imho. Though looking forward it does highlight the importance of only locking down where/when necessary as the negative impacts of locking down does include additional deaths on top of the financial and social costs.

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U.K. “over-estimating” Covid-19 deaths on 23:04 - Aug 1 with 751 viewsFreddies_Ears

U.K. “over-estimating” Covid-19 deaths on 09:53 - Aug 1 by bluelagos

So we have a large number of excess deaths - circa 70k. Of which around 2/3 are directly down to the virus. The others are either also (undiagnosed) CV deaths or indirect deaths due to some of the reasons you highlight.

The number of indirect highlights the negative impacts of the lockdown and the NHS prioritising CV patients and stopping many other things (Screening / non priority treatment) - which was inevitable I think.

So we know the lockdown has had a very negative (unintended) impact on the nation's health. But the alternative, no lockdown, was estimated to be significantly worse than the 70k deaths that have occurred. Over 500k deaths was estimated if we did nothing at all.

Debating how many of the 70k excess deaths were direct or indirect deaths is a bit of a red herring imho. Though looking forward it does highlight the importance of only locking down where/when necessary as the negative impacts of locking down does include additional deaths on top of the financial and social costs.


Many of the 22,000 or so care home deaths were before any testing in that sector, so were excluded from stats. They'll be the major reason for the discrepancy between govt figures and ONS. The possible and minor overstatement being briefed to press is just a govt smokescreen.
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U.K. “over-estimating” Covid-19 deaths on 09:44 - Aug 2 with 640 viewslongtimefan

U.K. “over-estimating” Covid-19 deaths on 23:04 - Aug 1 by Freddies_Ears

Many of the 22,000 or so care home deaths were before any testing in that sector, so were excluded from stats. They'll be the major reason for the discrepancy between govt figures and ONS. The possible and minor overstatement being briefed to press is just a govt smokescreen.


Somewhat at a tangent but I was somewhat shocked to read a while back that even before the onset of Covid-19, people admitted to Care homes only have around a 50% chance of still being alive 1 year later.
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U.K. “over-estimating” Covid-19 deaths on 12:04 - Aug 2 with 558 viewsTractorWood

U.K. “over-estimating” Covid-19 deaths on 23:04 - Aug 1 by Freddies_Ears

Many of the 22,000 or so care home deaths were before any testing in that sector, so were excluded from stats. They'll be the major reason for the discrepancy between govt figures and ONS. The possible and minor overstatement being briefed to press is just a govt smokescreen.


I think there is a chance the deaths are very slightly overstated by a flawed logic on someone having a covid positive result who may have died later for an unrelated reason. However, there is clearly a huge understatement of deaths arising between expected deaths and actual deaths towards the start of the pandemic which far exceeds the latent positive death dynamic. As a few mention above, this is probably from care homes and the elderly who were returned home or to their care setting in late March/early April with no test.

Hence why the Government were initially quite outspoken about changing this but a proper rationale would probably see the death toll increase, all things being equal. That's what the stats suggest anyway.

I know that was then, but it could be again..
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U.K. “over-estimating” Covid-19 deaths on 13:14 - Aug 2 with 508 viewsgordon

The 'COVID deaths are over-stated because someone who tests positive for COVID who is subsequently hit by a bus is counted as a COVID death' argument is a red herring.

Around 1 in 200 people have tested positive for COVID so far in the UK.

In normal circumstance, around 1,000 people die every day in summer.

As such, with no adjustments, you might expect a daily death rate (absent of COVID) of about 5 people per day amongst the people who have tested positive.

But, in normal circumstance it would be older people who die, while covid positive tests will be more evenly distributed demographically across the population.

As such (it could be worked out fairly precisely by someone with time on their hands) the expected underlying death rate (absent of COVID) of the cohort of people with positive tests - and therefore the error in the records caused by this anomaly - will probably be more like 1 - 2 per day.

That isn't relevant to the numbers we're still recording each day between 60 - 100, and will also be much less than people dying from COVID that we don't know about.
[Post edited 2 Aug 13:14]
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U.K. “over-estimating” Covid-19 deaths on 14:09 - Aug 2 with 456 viewsElephantintheRoom

Erm no... it is already well established that our world leading mortality data is actually an gross undeeestimate because of the huge number of deaths which will now occur over the next decade owing to the NHS ignoring all responisbilities for anything other than Covid for six months - whislt simultaneously seeding Covid into Care Homes through infected patients ... and the community via infected NHS workers in supermarkets

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U.K. “over-estimating” Covid-19 deaths on 17:19 - Aug 2 with 375 viewsSwansea_Blue

U.K. “over-estimating” Covid-19 deaths on 09:08 - Aug 1 by Basuco

But, in January and February the level of death's recorded in the UK was below the 5 year average, since then the level is somewhere between 65,000 to 70,000 death's above the 5 year average. In simple statistical terms it shows that 70,000 Covid 19 deaths would be a good estimate, if the 45.000 Covid death figure is underestimated what has caused the huge increase in UK Death's in March, April, May and June?


Quite.

A better headline might be 'Estimate of covid-19 deaths likely to be inaccurate'.

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U.K. “over-estimating” Covid-19 deaths on 18:16 - Aug 3 with 206 viewsmatteoblue

U.K. “over-estimating” Covid-19 deaths on 09:08 - Aug 1 by Basuco

But, in January and February the level of death's recorded in the UK was below the 5 year average, since then the level is somewhere between 65,000 to 70,000 death's above the 5 year average. In simple statistical terms it shows that 70,000 Covid 19 deaths would be a good estimate, if the 45.000 Covid death figure is underestimated what has caused the huge increase in UK Death's in March, April, May and June?


There is a huge increase in deaths from March for the following months, and it's certainly not clear what has caused them. There are 21,000 excess deaths which were not recorded as 'covid-19', so there will certainly be questions on how these have come about. The problem with covid reporting in Britain is that a patient doesn't have to be tested for covid-19 for it to be recorded on the death certificate. Also, as the majority of patients already had underlying illnesses it's not entirely clear whether it was the cause of death or merely a contributing factor. In care homes, the classification of a patient having 'covid like symptoms' (which is quite a long list in itself) doesn't even have to be done by a doctor. So it may be more than the 21,000 excess deaths which are not even recorded as covid. But bear in mind millions of operations have been cancelled, people have been scared to go to A&E (numbers massively done), and suicides are depression are up because of the lockdown. I suspect there will be an inquiry into this soon, so things can be made clearer.
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U.K. “over-estimating” Covid-19 deaths on 18:36 - Aug 3 with 183 viewsPinewoodblue

U.K. “over-estimating” Covid-19 deaths on 13:14 - Aug 2 by gordon

The 'COVID deaths are over-stated because someone who tests positive for COVID who is subsequently hit by a bus is counted as a COVID death' argument is a red herring.

Around 1 in 200 people have tested positive for COVID so far in the UK.

In normal circumstance, around 1,000 people die every day in summer.

As such, with no adjustments, you might expect a daily death rate (absent of COVID) of about 5 people per day amongst the people who have tested positive.

But, in normal circumstance it would be older people who die, while covid positive tests will be more evenly distributed demographically across the population.

As such (it could be worked out fairly precisely by someone with time on their hands) the expected underlying death rate (absent of COVID) of the cohort of people with positive tests - and therefore the error in the records caused by this anomaly - will probably be more like 1 - 2 per day.

That isn't relevant to the numbers we're still recording each day between 60 - 100, and will also be much less than people dying from COVID that we don't know about.
[Post edited 2 Aug 13:14]


Except you are overstating the current level of deaths. The seven day rolling average is stuck in the mid 60's and has been for a couple of weeks.

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U.K. “over-estimating” Covid-19 deaths on 21:53 - Aug 3 with 82 viewsflimflam

U.K. “over-estimating” Covid-19 deaths on 18:16 - Aug 3 by matteoblue

There is a huge increase in deaths from March for the following months, and it's certainly not clear what has caused them. There are 21,000 excess deaths which were not recorded as 'covid-19', so there will certainly be questions on how these have come about. The problem with covid reporting in Britain is that a patient doesn't have to be tested for covid-19 for it to be recorded on the death certificate. Also, as the majority of patients already had underlying illnesses it's not entirely clear whether it was the cause of death or merely a contributing factor. In care homes, the classification of a patient having 'covid like symptoms' (which is quite a long list in itself) doesn't even have to be done by a doctor. So it may be more than the 21,000 excess deaths which are not even recorded as covid. But bear in mind millions of operations have been cancelled, people have been scared to go to A&E (numbers massively done), and suicides are depression are up because of the lockdown. I suspect there will be an inquiry into this soon, so things can be made clearer.


Cancer deaths are expected to rise over the coming years by the 10's thousands due to cancelled treatments and also people not preventing at doctors with early symptoms which are now more advanced.
Add to that peoples mental health, millions more unemployed, thousands of businesses going under, increased suicides because of above. I also bet a lot of marriages / relationships are at breaking point due to above also.
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