| , brexit 13:51 - Dec 7 with 3394 views | wkj |
Surprise Surprise. |  |
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| , brexit on 18:29 - Dec 7 with 930 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| , brexit on 18:17 - Dec 7 by BlueBadger |
The 'unforeseen' consequences will only be entirely unpredictable if you actually believed Boris when he told you that it will all be unicorns, sunny uplands and white people only once Brexiy was 'done'.
(Not saying that you fell for Boris, here). |
I'm well aware that there will be plenty of consequences generally. I was alluding to a resumption of terrorism in Northern Ireland. If there's No Deal then The Good Friday Agreement will be broken, and any border checks infrastructure will be considered "fair game" to Republican terrorists.
If there is a Deal, and Northern Ireland is given a further "special status" (that is marked out as different from the rest of the UK) then a resumption of Loyalist violence is possible. More likely to emerge from street violence around the Marching Season, but there is real potential for things to escalate extremely quickly, and some quite prominent DUP politicians only went along with Paisley on The Good Friday Agreement and Power-sharing very reluctantly. Any sense that they have been "betrayed" in these negotiations will lead to a dramatic shift in rhetoric, which in turn will inflame the situation on the streets.
The Good Friday Agreement was the greatest political achievement of the last 50 years in the UK* and it is in danger of being treated as so much toilet paper, all because of Brexit.
*credit to John Major, as well as Blair/Mowlam, on the UK side, the unified approach from Irish politicians, the EU, USA and Canada for all that they did as honest brokers, but most of all to extremely courageous leadership from both Nationalist (and Republican) and Unionist (and Loyalist) politicians in Northern Ireland. |  | | |
| , brexit on 18:34 - Dec 7 with 915 views | bluelagos |
| , brexit on 18:29 - Dec 7 by ArnoldMoorhen |
I'm well aware that there will be plenty of consequences generally. I was alluding to a resumption of terrorism in Northern Ireland. If there's No Deal then The Good Friday Agreement will be broken, and any border checks infrastructure will be considered "fair game" to Republican terrorists.
If there is a Deal, and Northern Ireland is given a further "special status" (that is marked out as different from the rest of the UK) then a resumption of Loyalist violence is possible. More likely to emerge from street violence around the Marching Season, but there is real potential for things to escalate extremely quickly, and some quite prominent DUP politicians only went along with Paisley on The Good Friday Agreement and Power-sharing very reluctantly. Any sense that they have been "betrayed" in these negotiations will lead to a dramatic shift in rhetoric, which in turn will inflame the situation on the streets.
The Good Friday Agreement was the greatest political achievement of the last 50 years in the UK* and it is in danger of being treated as so much toilet paper, all because of Brexit.
*credit to John Major, as well as Blair/Mowlam, on the UK side, the unified approach from Irish politicians, the EU, USA and Canada for all that they did as honest brokers, but most of all to extremely courageous leadership from both Nationalist (and Republican) and Unionist (and Loyalist) politicians in Northern Ireland. |
I thought the whole idea of the exit agreement is that there will not be any cross border checks NI/Eire, rather checks from NI to the rest of the UK.
Now that will/does p*ss off the DUP but don't see why that would worry republicans.
NI effectively stays in the Single market with a border running through the Irish Sea. |  |
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| , brexit on 18:49 - Dec 7 with 899 views | jeera |
| , brexit on 18:34 - Dec 7 by bluelagos |
I thought the whole idea of the exit agreement is that there will not be any cross border checks NI/Eire, rather checks from NI to the rest of the UK.
Now that will/does p*ss off the DUP but don't see why that would worry republicans.
NI effectively stays in the Single market with a border running through the Irish Sea. |
Well that was the concept of the back stop to protect all that, but heck knows where it all is now. I lost track ages ago.
This could still cause problems NI end and/or possibly of course this end too, depending.
Pointless unsettling for little, if anything, gained.
I am reading a book on the Troubles currently and I have to put the book down more than I can focus on it sometimes tbh.
I don't think some people realise how damaging the era was, still potentially could be.
Innocent, normal lives turned upside down. No need for any of this. [Post edited 7 Dec 2020 18:51]
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| , brexit on 19:26 - Dec 7 with 870 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| , brexit on 18:34 - Dec 7 by bluelagos |
I thought the whole idea of the exit agreement is that there will not be any cross border checks NI/Eire, rather checks from NI to the rest of the UK.
Now that will/does p*ss off the DUP but don't see why that would worry republicans.
NI effectively stays in the Single market with a border running through the Irish Sea. |
Yep, exactly that. So in the event of a No Deal all of those agreements and protocols are thrown out, and we are back to "security infrastructure" on the Border of Eire/Northern Ireland, which then becomes a target for Republican terrorism.
If there is a Deal which keeps that Border completely open, through regulatory alignment and a customs union, then Northern Ireland becomes a bit more Irish and a bit less British. The border between that customs union is then with the mainland, or "In the Irish Sea". Then Sammy Wilson has to go through checks and through customs in order to go to Parliament to represent his constituents etc etc. He will gob off about that. If his party hadn't supported Brexit (because they saw it as an opportunity for the Border to become harder, and for Northern Ireland to become a little bit less Irish and a little bit more British) then I would have a lot of sympathy for him.
The symbolism will not be lost on anyone, and so much of the street antagonism and non-fatal violence during lulls in terrorist activity during the Troubles was about various symbols- stand-offs over marches, victimisation of "inter-marrying" couples, harassment of Catholics who worked as Civil Servants, let alone for the RUC, etc etc. And history tells us that the street violence eventually becomes fatal and then retaliation and "activity to protect the community" follows.
They're playing with fire, either way. | | | |
| , brexit on 19:34 - Dec 7 with 866 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| , brexit on 18:49 - Dec 7 by jeera |
Well that was the concept of the back stop to protect all that, but heck knows where it all is now. I lost track ages ago.
This could still cause problems NI end and/or possibly of course this end too, depending.
Pointless unsettling for little, if anything, gained.
I am reading a book on the Troubles currently and I have to put the book down more than I can focus on it sometimes tbh.
I don't think some people realise how damaging the era was, still potentially could be.
Innocent, normal lives turned upside down. No need for any of this. [Post edited 7 Dec 2020 18:51]
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What maninland Brits don't understand, because the English media only really portrayed the IRA/INLA as "the baddies", was how often the Loyalist terrorists deliberately raised the temperature whenever there was a possibility of an agreement. How many English people know about the Shankill Butchers? There are some genuine psychopathic serial killers on the Loyalist side. As bad as it is possible to be.
Part of The Good Friday Agreement was the release of these "political prisoners". It was considered a price worth paying, because it brought an end to the violence. The risk of resumption of violence isn't a price worth paying to teach "unelected bureaucrats in Brussels" a lesson in British bloody-mindedness, is it? | | | |
| , brexit on 19:46 - Dec 7 with 847 views | jeera |
| , brexit on 19:34 - Dec 7 by ArnoldMoorhen |
What maninland Brits don't understand, because the English media only really portrayed the IRA/INLA as "the baddies", was how often the Loyalist terrorists deliberately raised the temperature whenever there was a possibility of an agreement. How many English people know about the Shankill Butchers? There are some genuine psychopathic serial killers on the Loyalist side. As bad as it is possible to be.
Part of The Good Friday Agreement was the release of these "political prisoners". It was considered a price worth paying, because it brought an end to the violence. The risk of resumption of violence isn't a price worth paying to teach "unelected bureaucrats in Brussels" a lesson in British bloody-mindedness, is it? |
That's why I say innocent lives and try not to use any terms that be interpreted as some comparison.
Nor do like the term 'sides' as though anything is that clear cut.
Dreadful decisions, many atrocities, none of which can be justified. Heartbreaking losses.
There were some real heartless bastards who involved themselves on all levels, from the highest in power, to back street pub drinkers who thought they had some misguided authority of their own.
But yes, an extremely complex situation. | |
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| , brexit on 19:55 - Dec 7 with 834 views | EdwardStone |
| , brexit on 19:34 - Dec 7 by ArnoldMoorhen |
What maninland Brits don't understand, because the English media only really portrayed the IRA/INLA as "the baddies", was how often the Loyalist terrorists deliberately raised the temperature whenever there was a possibility of an agreement. How many English people know about the Shankill Butchers? There are some genuine psychopathic serial killers on the Loyalist side. As bad as it is possible to be.
Part of The Good Friday Agreement was the release of these "political prisoners". It was considered a price worth paying, because it brought an end to the violence. The risk of resumption of violence isn't a price worth paying to teach "unelected bureaucrats in Brussels" a lesson in British bloody-mindedness, is it? |
I think that one of the more surprising facts about The Troubles is that almost as many were murdered by Loyalist thugs as by Republican
The narrative was always painted that the IRA were the bad guys....but in fact the Loyalists were about equivalent |  | | |
| , brexit on 20:11 - Dec 7 with 800 views | Eireannach_gorm |
| , brexit on 19:46 - Dec 7 by jeera |
That's why I say innocent lives and try not to use any terms that be interpreted as some comparison.
Nor do like the term 'sides' as though anything is that clear cut.
Dreadful decisions, many atrocities, none of which can be justified. Heartbreaking losses.
There were some real heartless bastards who involved themselves on all levels, from the highest in power, to back street pub drinkers who thought they had some misguided authority of their own.
But yes, an extremely complex situation. |
Latest in the long list of mismanagement of Northern Ireland.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/nov/30/ministers-reject-call-for-public |  | | |
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| , brexit on 20:19 - Dec 7 with 794 views | jeera |
A sanctioned assassination.
Well it's over any 30 year threshold so what's the problem? Why would anyone not want to allow a proper investigation to take place?
What's to hide? | |
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| , brexit on 20:23 - Dec 7 with 788 views | EdwardStone |
| , brexit on 20:19 - Dec 7 by jeera |
A sanctioned assassination.
Well it's over any 30 year threshold so what's the problem? Why would anyone not want to allow a proper investigation to take place?
What's to hide? |
There is a lot to hide | | | |
| , brexit on 21:43 - Dec 7 with 739 views | Durovigutum |
| , brexit on 19:26 - Dec 7 by ArnoldMoorhen |
Yep, exactly that. So in the event of a No Deal all of those agreements and protocols are thrown out, and we are back to "security infrastructure" on the Border of Eire/Northern Ireland, which then becomes a target for Republican terrorism.
If there is a Deal which keeps that Border completely open, through regulatory alignment and a customs union, then Northern Ireland becomes a bit more Irish and a bit less British. The border between that customs union is then with the mainland, or "In the Irish Sea". Then Sammy Wilson has to go through checks and through customs in order to go to Parliament to represent his constituents etc etc. He will gob off about that. If his party hadn't supported Brexit (because they saw it as an opportunity for the Border to become harder, and for Northern Ireland to become a little bit less Irish and a little bit more British) then I would have a lot of sympathy for him.
The symbolism will not be lost on anyone, and so much of the street antagonism and non-fatal violence during lulls in terrorist activity during the Troubles was about various symbols- stand-offs over marches, victimisation of "inter-marrying" couples, harassment of Catholics who worked as Civil Servants, let alone for the RUC, etc etc. And history tells us that the street violence eventually becomes fatal and then retaliation and "activity to protect the community" follows.
They're playing with fire, either way. |
https://fb.watch/2emSDjQ6HI/
#OnThisDay 1973: Luke Casey took a poignant snapshot of Belfast at the height of the Troubles, a city the reporter had never previously visited. |  | | |
| , brexit on 22:29 - Dec 7 with 712 views | Eireannach_gorm |
| , brexit on 18:17 - Dec 7 by BlueBadger |
The 'unforeseen' consequences will only be entirely unpredictable if you actually believed Boris when he told you that it will all be unicorns, sunny uplands and white people only once Brexiy was 'done'.
(Not saying that you fell for Boris, here). |
......... and it continues
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| , brexit on 22:31 - Dec 7 with 709 views | Darth_Koont |
| , brexit on 16:29 - Dec 7 by Pinewoodblue |
Trump will still be around if he confirms he wants to run again in four years time, Brexit will never go away there will always be posters willing to remind us of the past, remember we still get MM dragged into posts.
We will start to see the good side of COVID when they start pointing out that the measures we have been taking to keep COVID in check have been responsible for a big reduction in deaths from the flu.
It is beginning to look that BLM is shaping up to be the subject that keeps Phil on his toes. |
But it doesn’t matter if people look at the issues honestly, rationally and factually ...
Ay, there’s the rub. |  |
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| , brexit on 13:42 - Dec 8 with 625 views | wkj |
oh goodness, the saga continues | |
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