Forum | Has the R number been revised down a bit? by NthQldITFC

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Has the R number been revised down a bit? 17:07 - Jan 3 with 4688 views

For those who've been looking at the localised map at https://localcovid.info/map.html, it looks to me that the 'actual' values for the last week or so and the forecast now are significantly lower than when I looked at them around Christmas time. If so that's a bit of encouragement. Or am I 'mis-remembering'?

	# WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE #
Poll:	It's driving me nuts

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:15 - Jan 3 with 585 views

bluelagos

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:06 - Jan 3 by StokieBlue

It's really not within the spirit or the letter of the rules:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/tier-4-stay-at-home#travel

"outdoor recreation or exercise. This should be done locally wherever possible, but you can travel a short distance within your Tier 4 area to do so if necessary (for example, to access an open space)"

Surely you must agree that going from somewhere like London with high levels of the new strain to somewhere without such high levels is a terrible idea regardless of the semantics? Nobody means to be infectious but with C19 one simply might not know they are.

SB

I do agree, yes.

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This new lockdown poll - what you reckon?

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:18 - Jan 3 with 583 views

Trequartista

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:02 - Jan 3 by StokieBlue

Indeed, although it's important to also factor in their own limitation:

"The major limitation is that our method is based upon analysis of counts of positive tests, as opposed to true infections. There is an unclear relationship between true incidences and the community testing in Pillars 1+2, and there can be substantial selection bias in the population who (successfully) get tested. As such the predictions of our method cannot be thought of as reflecting true incidences of Covid-19 in the community, but rather as predictions of positive test results."

They also cite that using this data to model local R can be inaccurate but I do think it's an excellent tool.

This is worth a read if you have time:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/211793/new-covid-19-variant-growing-rapidly-engl

Looking back you seem to be advocating opening the schools in Kent because the R<1 in that tool?

Whilst the R<1 in the tool the number of cases are still very high. When this is coupled by the fact that children are seen as spreaders with the new variant due to the higher viral load it generates I can see why SAGE don't want to open schools. If you open the schools and have the children who can now be more infectious going home then the number of cases is going to rocket due to the mixing at school.

The new variant is causing the issues here.

SB

I would not doubt there are caveats to any set of data, and that it is never going to be entirely accurate, but the patterns here seem too certain. There is not a chequered pattern in these regions, the pattern is repeated in each council area.

For your last paragraph, the number of cases in Kent and S/W Essex clearly *dropped* quite sharply *after* the new variant took hold, *during* school term time, having been put into Tier 4 lockdown from before Christmas Day. I therefore cannot see an argument as to why it would rocket when children return to school, if Tier 4 restrictions are maintained. There are swathes of blue in the North too but I don't think the variant was dominant there at that time, so I accept that is not admissable evidence there.

[Post edited 3 Jan 2021 23:18]

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Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:22 - Jan 3 with 568 views

Mookamoo

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:13 - Jan 3 by bluelagos

So you are advocating road blocks on major roads?

Funnily enough in lockdown 1 I posted on here as I thought I'd seen a police roadblock on the A14 but it turmed out it was just the police dealing with a prang on a sliproad.

Not convinced we have the resources, to check every vehicle on the A12 A14 for example. Maybe ANPR is developed, but you'd have to run it on every vehicle and then question every vehicle from outside the area. It's not as if the police are doing nothing at other times.

They can set up a check and pull one in ten cars, or cars with numerous adults in and the traffic keeps flowing OK. I spent time in Co Monaghan pre 1998 and it worked OK then - it was just part and parcel of traveling in and out of a controlled area.

[Post edited 3 Jan 2021 23:23]

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:22 - Jan 3 with 568 views

ElderGrizzly

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:02 - Jan 3 by bluelagos
You stated they travelled across tier 4. If you can point out to any legally enforecable laws about what distance you can travel to shop, meet a friend, go for exercise, ride your motorbike - all legal activities, I'll take your point.

My bad English, by across I meant across different counties.

Travelling out of a Tier 4 area
You must stay at home and not leave your Tier 4 area, other than for legally permitted reasons such as:

travel to work where you cannot work from home
travel to education and for caring responsibilities
visit or stay overnight with people in your support bubble, or your childcare bubble for childcare purposes
attend hospital, GP and other medical appointments or visits where you have had an accident or are concerned about your health
to provide emergency assistance, and to avoid injury or illness, or to escape a risk of harm (such as domestic abuse)

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:23 - Jan 3 with 561 views

ElderGrizzly

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:22 - Jan 3 by Mookamoo
They can set up a check and pull one in ten cars, or cars with numerous adults in and the traffic keeps flowing OK. I spent time in Co Monaghan pre 1998 and it worked OK then - it was just part and parcel of traveling in and out of a controlled area. [Post edited 3 Jan 2021 23:23]

The Welsh Police were doing that at the weekend and turning cars away

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:26 - Jan 3 with 553 views

bluelagos

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:22 - Jan 3 by ElderGrizzly

No worries.

Poll:

This new lockdown poll - what you reckon?

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:27 - Jan 3 with 551 views

bluelagos

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:22 - Jan 3 by Mookamoo
They can set up a check and pull one in ten cars, or cars with numerous adults in and the traffic keeps flowing OK. I spent time in Co Monaghan pre 1998 and it worked OK then - it was just part and parcel of traveling in and out of a controlled area. [Post edited 3 Jan 2021 23:23]

Sounds like a plan :-)

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This new lockdown poll - what you reckon?

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:29 - Jan 3 with 548 views

bluelagos

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:23 - Jan 3 by ElderGrizzly
The Welsh Police were doing that at the weekend and turning cars away

Think they said some had travelled from London. Welsh guidelines are tougher than English as you have to start your exercise from your house.

Poll:

This new lockdown poll - what you reckon?

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:33 - Jan 3 with 546 views

StokieBlue

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:18 - Jan 3 by Trequartista

[Post edited 3 Jan 2021 23:18]

There is no way of knowing from that data how many of the cases were new variant in any specific region (only a rough % from other sources). I would also point out that certainly in London, many parents were keeping their kids out of school at that time with the idea of visiting family for Christmas before that option was removed. On top of that in the local schools most had 2 or 3 entire year bubbles out of school in isolation so in general attendance was way down on what it would be next week.

A data driven approach is admirable but discounting the opinions of experts on the subject to take a totally data driven approach is suboptimal in my opinion.

I don't think we can conclude that the opinions of SAGE and Imperial are wrong based on the numbers in a tool, that whilst excellent, by it's own admission has some flaws in the dataset.

I guess we just disagree on the next course of action, I do think schools should be closed, at least in the short-term to allow tier 4 to reduce the numbers further than it already has in some areas.

SB

[Post edited 3 Jan 2021 23:35]

Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula

Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 23:40 - Jan 3 with 530 views

Yallop

Is there any data being collated around people who have tested positive more than once with a spell of a negative in between?

My point is there any evidence you can build natural immunity?

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:47 - Jan 3 with 527 views

Trequartista

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:33 - Jan 3 by StokieBlue

[Post edited 3 Jan 2021 23:35]

I would not disagree with you on London, although the 'R' has reduced, it has not been enough and I would agree with closing schools there.

There is no indicator in this data of how dominant each variant is at a particular time, but we know it became dominant first in the areas that swiftly went into Tier 4 for that very reason, and if you scroll back to November you can see where only Kent and the South-East is red, followed by a horrific out-of-control picture in the first days of December, so it is clear from that, and from news reports we've prevously seen when the variant took hold. As far as i'm aware, its domination over the previous strain is continuous, it doesn't lose the fight again, so the data in all areas now is where the new strain increases in prevalence.

I'm certainly not claiming i am right and SAGE is wrong, despite my reservations on the previous accuracy of claims by the likes of Professor Neil Ferguson. I don't know what extra information they will have, and I don't know what their counter-argument is to the data presented here which could render my argument totally defeated. I can only give an opinion on the data i can see.

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Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 00:05 - Jan 4 with 509 views

StokieBlue

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:47 - Jan 3 by Trequartista

That is all fair.

With regards to the domination of VOC202012/01, you are absolutely correct that once it outcompetes the older variant it will not lose it's foothold unless something even more transmissible comes along.

It's worth noting though that as of the 24th December it was making up about 60% of the cases in the SE so whilst it would have been present in the surge you've described (and probably was the cause of it) it wasn't totally widespread.

I assume the thinking behind closing schools is to slow the inevitable trend of VOC towards 100% of infections and thus slowing the general transmission of the virus and taking some pressure off the NHS which is struggling at the moment (hospitalisations of C19 patients is ~32% higher at the moment than at the peak in April).

Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 00:27 - Jan 4 with 488 views

Trequartista

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 00:05 - Jan 4 by StokieBlue

Yes that is true it does not have full dominance yet even in those places where it took hold first, my point was the cases rocketed and then dipped whilst the variant was present and could only be increasing in prevalence.

I'm not oblivious to the harsh reality that the more schools we leave open, the more people will die of Covid. But it is also a harsh reality of life that a proportional balance must be struck, and it is, as you indicate, where the NHS cannot cope, where we need to try and strike that balance.

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