Forum | Has the R number been revised down a bit? by NthQldITFC

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Has the R number been revised down a bit? 17:07 - Jan 3 with 5580 views

For those who've been looking at the localised map at https://localcovid.info/map.html, it looks to me that the 'actual' values for the last week or so and the forecast now are significantly lower than when I looked at them around Christmas time. If so that's a bit of encouragement. Or am I 'mis-remembering'?

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Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:18 - Jan 3 with 2207 views

StokieBlue

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:15 - Jan 3 by Trequartista

Would imagine it is schools closing.

Looking at the case data and the R rates in the op, it would seem a good idea to close schools in London where Tier 4 has failed to reduce the R below 1.0 and leave them open in Kent and South and West Essex where Tier 4 appears to have done the job, with decisions pending on areas that went into Tier 4 on Boxing Day when we get the next batch of data.

[Post edited 3 Jan 2021 22:16]

That isn't the recommendation of SAGE though. They have said on numerous occasions that it would be virtually impossible with the new strain to get R<1 with the schools open. They also wanted tier 4 nationally from Boxing day.

SB

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:21 - Jan 3 with 2196 views

bluelagos

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:18 - Jan 3 by StokieBlue
That isn't the recommendation of SAGE though. They have said on numerous occasions that it would be virtually impossible with the new strain to get R<1 with the schools open. They also wanted tier 4 nationally from Boxing day. SB

Am not upto speed on what is planned at Unis? Are they planning on reopening shortly? Presumably a fair few students will be returning soon?

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This new lockdown poll - what you reckon?

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:22 - Jan 3 with 2194 views

Freddies_Ears

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 20:51 - Jan 3 by blueprint
It astonishes me that couples still seem to be out shopping together when it’s just not necessary. To be honest my wife and I never go to supermarkets together even pre Covid.

Let alone whole family groups of 2 parents + 2 or more kids, having a day out in the supermarket cos they are bored at home and nowhere else is open... grrrr...

Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 22:23 - Jan 3 with 2190 views

StokieBlue

Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 18:20 - Jan 3 by Trequartista
It seems to me that the 'R' has a huge regional variance so if the national 'R' is 1.2-1.4 it could be 0.8-1.0 in some areas and 1.6-1.8 in others. Indeed going by the map cited in the op, on Dec 5, Brentwood was at 1.7-2.4 and Thurrock 1.8-2.5

It does have a large regional variance but that will tend to converge as the new strain takes over from the old strain in areas outside the SE. Given the latest imperial study it seems unlikely that the R<1 in virtually any area once the new variant is in the ascendancy.

We could barely get R<0.8 with national lockdowns, if you add 0.4 to 0.8 to that you see the reason that SAGE want much tougher measures and the schools close. The dynamics have changed completely.

SB

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:25 - Jan 3 with 2185 views

Trequartista

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:18 - Jan 3 by StokieBlue
That isn't the recommendation of SAGE though. They have said on numerous occasions that it would be virtually impossible with the new strain to get R<1 with the schools open. They also wanted tier 4 nationally from Boxing day. SB

Does the data in the op not show that the R has fallen below 1 in Kent and South & West Essex ?

[Post edited 3 Jan 2021 22:30]

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Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:25 - Jan 3 with 2181 views

StokieBlue

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:21 - Jan 3 by bluelagos
Am not upto speed on what is planned at Unis? Are they planning on reopening shortly? Presumably a fair few students will be returning soon?

They are supposed to go back on the 25h January but UCL have decided to take their own decisions and have told students not to come in for at least another 7 weeks:

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2021/jan/03/ucl-tells-students-stay-away-f

SB

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:27 - Jan 3 with 2178 views

judespiveyg

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:21 - Jan 3 by bluelagos
Am not upto speed on what is planned at Unis? Are they planning on reopening shortly? Presumably a fair few students will be returning soon?

I've had nothing concrete yet. Don't know about other unis but at Sheffield (where I am) we have an exam period for autumn modules this month. These are all take home papers and we've therefore been advised not to return until Spring modules start, which is in early February. Still a month off though so a lot could change in that time.

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Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:28 - Jan 3 with 2175 views

bluelagos

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:22 - Jan 3 by Freddies_Ears
Let alone whole family groups of 2 parents + 2 or more kids, having a day out in the supermarket cos they are bored at home and nowhere else is open... grrrr...

It's not ideal, but you and I have no idea of their home circumstances. Many people, usually the poorest, live in flats with no outdoor space. I suspect if I was couped up like that I'd take every opportunity to legally get my kids outside too.

Appreciate it's not ideal, but labelling people as selfish for looking out for their well being is unfair imho. Having friends round, going to parties are far more selfish acts imho.

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Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 22:30 - Jan 3 with 2167 views

ElderGrizzly

Has the R number been revised down a bit? on 18:43 - Jan 3 by Dennyx4
Is it because there were less tests carried out because it was Christmas?

Good thread here on the latest data

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:32 - Jan 3 with 2166 views

Mookamoo

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:09 - Jan 3 by bluelagos
1. You are allowed outside for recreation. 2. Struggling to see why looking at the sky is dangerous. 3. Strugggling to see why looking at the sky is selfish. If your friends find it helps them and they are not in a group, have no objections whatsoever tbh.

Tier 4 is supposed to be exercise locally where at all possible - and meeting one other person. A planned outing with friends (plural) is pushing it.

If Johnson is talking about a tightening of the rules and a possible Tier 5 then schools closing and a blanket ban of recreational travel seem the obvious changes.

And a whipping for anyone who doesn't cover their nose with their mask.

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:32 - Jan 3 with 2167 views

StokieBlue

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:25 - Jan 3 by Trequartista
Does the data in the op not show that the R has fallen below 1 in Kent and South & West Essex ? [Post edited 3 Jan 2021 22:30]

Yes it does but surely that supports SAGE's stance? The value has fallen to that level when schools have been closed over the holidays.

The cases also were coming from a very high level which makes a local R<1 possible given the high starting point. It's also worth pointing out that the place I looked at in Kent (Ashford) still has >700 cases per 100,000 with the schools closed. The worry is that cases will rocket if schools are opened given even now they are at historically fairly high levels.

SB

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:37 - Jan 3 with 2146 views

ElderGrizzly

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:09 - Jan 3 by bluelagos
1. You are allowed outside for recreation. 2. Struggling to see why looking at the sky is dangerous. 3. Strugggling to see why looking at the sky is selfish. If your friends find it helps them and they are not in a group, have no objections whatsoever tbh.

They are travelling across Tier 4 areas (which is illegal) to airports to meet in de-facto groups (which is illegal)

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:39 - Jan 3 with 2126 views

26_Paz

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:37 - Jan 3 by ElderGrizzly
They are travelling across Tier 4 areas (which is illegal) to airports to meet in de-facto groups (which is illegal)

Yeah, shouldn’t be doing it in groups
Edit ... interesting question ... who here would consider grassing their friends up for something like this?

[Post edited 3 Jan 2021 22:41]

The Paz Man

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:42 - Jan 3 with 2123 views

bluelagos

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:32 - Jan 3 by Mookamoo
Tier 4 is supposed to be exercise locally where at all possible - and meeting one other person. A planned outing with friends (plural) is pushing it. If Johnson is talking about a tightening of the rules and a possible Tier 5 then schools closing and a blanket ban of recreational travel seem the obvious changes. And a whipping for anyone who doesn't cover their nose with their mask.

A planned meeting with AN Other is fine but with friends is definitely not inline with the guidelines. I think it is illegal too.

That said, the idea that we have a well resourced police force to actually enforce these rules is wishful thinking, irrespective of what many may wish.

Poll:

This new lockdown poll - what you reckon?

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:44 - Jan 3 with 2115 views

bluelagos

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:37 - Jan 3 by ElderGrizzly
They are travelling across Tier 4 areas (which is illegal) to airports to meet in de-facto groups (which is illegal)

Travelling is a very grey area as I understand it. Meeting in a group of 3 or more would definitely be illegal, absolutely.

Poll:

This new lockdown poll - what you reckon?

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:45 - Jan 3 with 2127 views

Trequartista

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:32 - Jan 3 by StokieBlue

Move the date pointer to 19/12/2020 and Kent and South and West Essex has already turned blue, only 1 day after schools break up. It represents data for 13/12 - 19/12 which is during school term. The 'R' has also turned from dark red to faint red in many other areas.

[Post edited 3 Jan 2021 22:47]

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Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:50 - Jan 3 with 2106 views

pointofblue

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:44 - Jan 3 by bluelagos
Travelling is a very grey area as I understand it. Meeting in a group of 3 or more would definitely be illegal, absolutely.

Another thing a tier 5 could shut down - make it illegal to travel outside the borough area/certain amount of miles from home.

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Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:54 - Jan 3 with 2102 views

ElderGrizzly

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:39 - Jan 3 by 26_Paz
Yeah, shouldn’t be doing it in groups Edit ... interesting question ... who here would consider grassing their friends up for something like this? [Post edited 3 Jan 2021 22:41]

No, not me.

It just frustrates me that people are so selfish.

The same as travel bloggers I know still travelling across the world as they class it as essential travel

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:56 - Jan 3 with 2098 views

ElderGrizzly

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:44 - Jan 3 by bluelagos
Travelling is a very grey area as I understand it. Meeting in a group of 3 or more would definitely be illegal, absolutely.

Travelling outside of your Tier 4 area is not grey at all. It is only allowed for a very narrow list of reasons

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:58 - Jan 3 with 2094 views

bluelagos

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:50 - Jan 3 by pointofblue
Another thing a tier 5 could shut down - make it illegal to travel outside the borough area/certain amount of miles from home.

Would make very little difference. Travelling 100 miles or 1 mile to go for exercise doesnt make exercise any more dangerous, despite what the North Wales police ranting about people travelling to Snowdonia from afar.

Am not advocating a trip to Snowdon before anyone piles in, just pointing out the benefits are very limited/neglible being limited to a few less chances of contacts say at filling stations.

Poll:

This new lockdown poll - what you reckon?

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:02 - Jan 3 with 2093 views

StokieBlue

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:45 - Jan 3 by Trequartista
Move the date pointer to 19/12/2020 and Kent and South and West Essex has already turned blue, only 1 day after schools break up. It represents data for 13/12 - 19/12 which is during school term. The 'R' has also turned from dark red to faint red in many other areas. [Post edited 3 Jan 2021 22:47]

Indeed, although it's important to also factor in their own limitation:

"The major limitation is that our method is based upon analysis of counts of positive tests, as opposed to true infections. There is an unclear relationship between true incidences and the community testing in Pillars 1+2, and there can be substantial selection bias in the population who (successfully) get tested. As such the predictions of our method cannot be thought of as reflecting true incidences of Covid-19 in the community, but rather as predictions of positive test results."

They also cite that using this data to model local R can be inaccurate but I do think it's an excellent tool.

This is worth a read if you have time:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/211793/new-covid-19-variant-growing-rapidly-engl

Looking back you seem to be advocating opening the schools in Kent because the R<1 in that tool?

Whilst the R<1 in the tool the number of cases are still very high. When this is coupled by the fact that children are seen as spreaders with the new variant due to the higher viral load it generates I can see why SAGE don't want to open schools. If you open the schools and have the children who can now be more infectious going home then the number of cases is going to rocket due to the mixing at school.

The new variant is causing the issues here.

SB

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:02 - Jan 3 with 2090 views

bluelagos

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:56 - Jan 3 by ElderGrizzly
Travelling outside of your Tier 4 area is not grey at all. It is only allowed for a very narrow list of reasons

You stated they travelled across tier 4. If you can point out to any legally enforecable laws about what distance you can travel to shop, meet a friend, go for exercise, ride your motorbike - all legal activities, I'll take your point.

Poll:

This new lockdown poll - what you reckon?

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:03 - Jan 3 with 2088 views

Mookamoo

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 22:42 - Jan 3 by bluelagos
A planned meeting with AN Other is fine but with friends is definitely not inline with the guidelines. I think it is illegal too. That said, the idea that we have a well resourced police force to actually enforce these rules is wishful thinking, irrespective of what many may wish.

We have more than enough resources for traffic spot checks in and out of a high risk area. It wouldn't take long for word to get around and change behaviour.

The biggest issue will be removing the ambiguity from the guidelines and shifting public thinking to one of willing acceptance rather than reading the rules and working out what they can get away with.

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:06 - Jan 3 with 2083 views

StokieBlue

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:02 - Jan 3 by bluelagos
You stated they travelled across tier 4. If you can point out to any legally enforecable laws about what distance you can travel to shop, meet a friend, go for exercise, ride your motorbike - all legal activities, I'll take your point.

It's really not within the spirit or the letter of the rules:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/tier-4-stay-at-home#travel

"outdoor recreation or exercise. This should be done locally wherever possible, but you can travel a short distance within your Tier 4 area to do so if necessary (for example, to access an open space)"

Surely you must agree that going from somewhere like London with high levels of the new strain to somewhere without such high levels is a terrible idea regardless of the semantics? Nobody means to be infectious but with C19 one simply might not know they are.

SB

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:13 - Jan 3 with 2073 views

bluelagos

Here he is, TWTD's very own..... on 23:03 - Jan 3 by Mookamoo
We have more than enough resources for traffic spot checks in and out of a high risk area. It wouldn't take long for word to get around and change behaviour. The biggest issue will be removing the ambiguity from the guidelines and shifting public thinking to one of willing acceptance rather than reading the rules and working out what they can get away with.

So you are advocating road blocks on major roads?

Funnily enough in lockdown 1 I posted on here as I thought I'd seen a police roadblock on the A14 but it turmed out it was just the police dealing with a prang on a sliproad.

Not convinced we have the resources, to check every vehicle on the A12 A14 for example. Maybe ANPR is developed, but you'd have to run it on every vehicle and then question every vehicle from outside the area. It's not as if the police are doing nothing at other times.

Poll:

This new lockdown poll - what you reckon?

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