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Change in vaccination strategy coming? 20:43 - Feb 7 with 4094 viewsElderGrizzly

The South African variant is really causing headaches for the vaccines, particularly AZ.

Shows why the Govt is panicking to get those SA variant cases locked down asap, if the vaccine as it stands isn’t protecting anywhere near well enough (down at 30% efficacy) against mild or moderate Covid19.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/07/scientists-call-for-rethink-as-d
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Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 12:43 - Feb 8 with 422 viewsStokieBlue

Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 12:38 - Feb 8 by J2BLUE

The government really need to stop pissing about now and have proper border controls.


That would definitely help but I am not sure how much. The E484K mutation seems very beneficial and thus it has arisen in SA, Brazil and now independently in the UK. Given it's beneficial to the virus it's likely to arise independently in most places given time and a population to spread in.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55900625

You are right the borders need to be pretty much closed at this point.

SB

SB - (not Simon Batford)

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I assume that they haven't..... on 12:47 - Feb 8 with 418 viewsStokieBlue

I assume that they haven't..... on 12:42 - Feb 8 by Bloots

....performed this study within the 21 days after receiving the vaccine and have followed the basic guidance of allowing immunity to build up?

We had this issue with the study that came out if Israel a few weeks back.

Either way 2,000 31 year olds does seem a bit selective.


This isn't like the Israeli data, It's not about building up immunity in this case, the mutation is to the spike protein which means the antibodies which are generated based on a slightly different spike protein aren't as effective and aren't going to be even given time.

You are right it's a small and select sample size but it's a sample size that should be robust and with good immune systems and the vaccine didn't provide protection against mild or moderate disease (there weren't enough serious disease in the sample to test).

More data is definitely needed.

SB

SB - (not Simon Batford)

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Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 13:06 - Feb 8 with 406 viewsgazzer1999

The astrazenica was not as effective as in non south african variants but gave no figures to substantiate how much of a drop. They made NO comment on it's efficacy in refference to those who had been admited to hospital or life threatening cases. Within the same article which was in the financial times, they listed all of the main vaccines and each and everyone of them was shown to have a reduced efficacy against the South African variant. So why then target Astrazenica when all of the others also showed a drop in efficacy against the South African variant too?

These are not my words but from an article in the press.
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Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 13:07 - Feb 8 with 403 viewsChurchman

Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 11:39 - Feb 8 by Swansea_Blue

I don't think this can be dismissed purely because it it's only mild to moderate cases that are the issue. They can still be exceedingly debilitating.

They have other vaccines in development though that are aimed at tackling future variants. Kate Bingham talks about this in a recent interview (that's well worth a read in terms of understanding how the UK go the jump on the vaccines). - https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2021/02/07/news/kate_bingham_interview_vaccine

That's the good news. The possible not so good news is that the current vaccines are not yet having a noticeable positive effect on case rates in the older age groups. Which is a bit of a surprise and, although not worrying yet, is something we'd hope to see change soon.


Edit - I see I'm late to the party as usual. The Billingham interview is worth a read though as it talks in more detail some of the things that have been discussed in this thread.
[Post edited 8 Feb 2021 11:41]


I agree. The Kate Bingham interview is well worth a read. It’s very insightful on how things are done in additional to the work she did. One clever dude!

She makes an interesting comment about The Guardian: ‘there’s very little written that is correct’. I think that is applicable to all newspapers / media and as Ive said before, that was my own experience working on Brexit.

Taking a balanced view on this, as I believe for example SB does, is so important.
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Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 14:00 - Feb 8 with 383 viewsElderGrizzly

Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 13:07 - Feb 8 by Churchman

I agree. The Kate Bingham interview is well worth a read. It’s very insightful on how things are done in additional to the work she did. One clever dude!

She makes an interesting comment about The Guardian: ‘there’s very little written that is correct’. I think that is applicable to all newspapers / media and as Ive said before, that was my own experience working on Brexit.

Taking a balanced view on this, as I believe for example SB does, is so important.


We obviously get data direct from the source within Govt briefing papers, but I always do a comparison between papers like the Guardian and The Torygraph to see how differing they are in reporting the underlying facts.

On this one, they are pretty aligned and have taken the AZ press release to the word.
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Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 14:02 - Feb 8 with 380 viewsElderGrizzly

Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 12:43 - Feb 8 by StokieBlue

That would definitely help but I am not sure how much. The E484K mutation seems very beneficial and thus it has arisen in SA, Brazil and now independently in the UK. Given it's beneficial to the virus it's likely to arise independently in most places given time and a population to spread in.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55900625

You are right the borders need to be pretty much closed at this point.

SB


The scientists wanted borders closed 4 weeks ago (to passenger traffic), with freight unaffected.

Three times last week, Boris Johnson purposefully conflated the two and said demands for shutting borders would cripple food and medicine supplies.

No-one has ever asked for freight to be stopped, but he and his cabinet continually quote this in the media.
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Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 15:04 - Feb 8 with 350 viewsElderGrizzly

Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 13:07 - Feb 8 by Churchman

I agree. The Kate Bingham interview is well worth a read. It’s very insightful on how things are done in additional to the work she did. One clever dude!

She makes an interesting comment about The Guardian: ‘there’s very little written that is correct’. I think that is applicable to all newspapers / media and as Ive said before, that was my own experience working on Brexit.

Taking a balanced view on this, as I believe for example SB does, is so important.


This Twitter thread (too long to post all on here) is really good at explaining the SA variant and the SA Govt and AZ approach to the results of the trial



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Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 15:08 - Feb 8 with 337 viewsChurchman

Change in vaccination strategy coming? on 14:00 - Feb 8 by ElderGrizzly

We obviously get data direct from the source within Govt briefing papers, but I always do a comparison between papers like the Guardian and The Torygraph to see how differing they are in reporting the underlying facts.

On this one, they are pretty aligned and have taken the AZ press release to the word.


But it me you do not come across as objective, unlike certain others i could mention. In the current environment I don’t think that’s helpful.

I was not having a go at the Guardian. People like my sister view it as the only neutral newspaper and they are entitled to view whatever they like. I personally think them all rubbish, as is the BBC. Sky and others; they have to make a living and that isn’t always best served at times by telling the truth. They make stuff up, fill in gaps and put 2 and 2 together to make 52. Whatever sells.

Kate Bingham’s experiences just reflected my own (albeit well and truly down the ‘food chain’!). It was not prejudiced against the Guardian; the ‘daily mail factor’ isn’t something taken into account by govt for nothing and nor is it peculiar to this government.
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