| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions 08:10 - Jun 14 with 3610 views | homer_123 |
though the fact is that we haven't really been restricted for a while now.
Lots of talk now about getting the 40s and 50s through the second jab as soon as possible as only one dose of AZ is offering around 33% protection against the Delta variant (though protection against hospitalisation and serious illness is a lot higher with 1 dose). Back on the 14th of May the JVCI suggested bringing forward the AZ jab to 8 weeks for those in Cohort 9 and under, now there are discussions underway to bring that forward for Cohorts 10 and above.
It's proving a grimly fascinating virus, to see two considerable leaps (via variants) in 18 months has surprised a lot of scientists:
"This virus has surprised us a lot. It is beyond anything we feared," said Dr Aris Katzourakis, who studies viral evolution at the University of Oxford. "The fact it has happened twice in 18 months, two lineages (Alpha and then Delta) each 50% more transmissible is a phenomenal amount of change."
That said, there are typically trade offs:
There is also the concept of evolutionary trade-offs - in order to become better at one thing you often get worse at something else. The fastest vaccination programme in history will give the virus a different hurdle to overcome and squeeze it in another evolutionary direction.
"It is quite possible that changes in the virus that make it better at avoiding vaccines could end up compromising its ability to transmit in an absolute sense," said Dr Katzourakis.
The pace the virus is working at is quite a rate - even though we are in the summer, my gut feel is we'll need to step back into further restrictions going forward to keep on top here in the UK.
Whilst vaccine uptake in the over 50s is around 95%, we are still looking at an awfully large number of people in this bracket that have had no vaccination - and therefore the risk to that group is significantly higher, so something we need to be very mindful of.
A four week delay isn't really a hardship to see how this pans out. Though I suspect we'll find things starting to tighten again before then. [Post edited 14 Jun 2021 9:19]
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| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 11:58 - Jun 14 with 999 views | Mookamoo |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 11:37 - Jun 14 by bluelady |
what you also have to remember is that those in hospital have tested positive for covid they have not necessarily entered hospital due to covid, this is where the stats are pretty useless. of course those testing positive in hospital will go up as its doing so in the general population. what I want to see is what is the increase (if any) of those being taken to hospital DUE to covid |
You imagine there will be a shift quite soon to start reporting excess deaths, not just Covid deaths and base the opening/restrictions on those. I'd also like to know the figures on the rise in those accessing mental health services and those choosing to end their life.
Possibly once all adults have been offered the vaccine that will coincide with a shift in policy based on 'we've done all we can' and all those who have refused are left with their own choice. |  | | |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 12:47 - Jun 14 with 942 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 11:58 - Jun 14 by Mookamoo |
You imagine there will be a shift quite soon to start reporting excess deaths, not just Covid deaths and base the opening/restrictions on those. I'd also like to know the figures on the rise in those accessing mental health services and those choosing to end their life.
Possibly once all adults have been offered the vaccine that will coincide with a shift in policy based on 'we've done all we can' and all those who have refused are left with their own choice. |
Excess deaths have been in negative territory for last three months, they will start mentioning them again when it fits the agenda. |  |
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| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 13:07 - Jun 14 with 926 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 11:58 - Jun 14 by Mookamoo |
You imagine there will be a shift quite soon to start reporting excess deaths, not just Covid deaths and base the opening/restrictions on those. I'd also like to know the figures on the rise in those accessing mental health services and those choosing to end their life.
Possibly once all adults have been offered the vaccine that will coincide with a shift in policy based on 'we've done all we can' and all those who have refused are left with their own choice. |
And we are not in this together. Huge differences in vaccination levels across the country
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| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 13:14 - Jun 14 with 902 views | StokieBlue |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 13:07 - Jun 14 by ElderGrizzly |
And we are not in this together. Huge differences in vaccination levels across the country
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There is a real issue with take-up in certain areas and it's hard to know how to fix it without implementing things like vaccine passports to try and increase take-up.
Also, this is the 3rd reply to that tweet:
No engagement in the actual issues of vaccine take-up and the differences between areas, just an advert for anti-lockdown protests.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 13:23 - Jun 14 with 867 views | Mookamoo |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 13:14 - Jun 14 by StokieBlue |
There is a real issue with take-up in certain areas and it's hard to know how to fix it without implementing things like vaccine passports to try and increase take-up.
Also, this is the 3rd reply to that tweet:
No engagement in the actual issues of vaccine take-up and the differences between areas, just an advert for anti-lockdown protests.
SB |
At a guess a fair percentage of those in Newham who haven't taken up the vaccine are in low paid, zero hour contracts. Offering statutory sick pay to everyone for 2 weeks post jab so they can recover and feel able to take time off would be cost effective long term. | | | |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 13:24 - Jun 14 with 866 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 13:07 - Jun 14 by ElderGrizzly |
And we are not in this together. Huge differences in vaccination levels across the country
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The problem with any statement, using statistical information, is the info that is missing. I’m sure that young people, not eligible for vaccination at this time, represent a larger proportion of the population of Newham than they do Darlington.
Added by edit
20.5% of the population of Darlington is over 65.
7.7% of population of Newham is over 65
[Post edited 14 Jun 2021 13:32]
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| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 13:28 - Jun 14 with 852 views | StokieBlue |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 13:24 - Jun 14 by Pinewoodblue |
The problem with any statement, using statistical information, is the info that is missing. I’m sure that young people, not eligible for vaccination at this time, represent a larger proportion of the population of Newham than they do Darlington.
Added by edit
20.5% of the population of Darlington is over 65.
7.7% of population of Newham is over 65
[Post edited 14 Jun 2021 13:32]
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I don't think that is what it shows though.
I believe it shows the percentage uptake of those who have been offered the vaccine in those areas so having a larger proportion of younger people is irrelevant.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 13:38 - Jun 14 with 826 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 13:24 - Jun 14 by Pinewoodblue |
The problem with any statement, using statistical information, is the info that is missing. I’m sure that young people, not eligible for vaccination at this time, represent a larger proportion of the population of Newham than they do Darlington.
Added by edit
20.5% of the population of Darlington is over 65.
7.7% of population of Newham is over 65
[Post edited 14 Jun 2021 13:32]
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I did think that to a degree, but apparently it is not enough for the difference.
I can't find the link now, but I put the stats in a thread here no the difference in take-up amongst different populations in the UK.
White British was at 91%. Some of the ethnic minority groups is below 50% | | | |
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| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 13:42 - Jun 14 with 812 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 13:28 - Jun 14 by StokieBlue |
I don't think that is what it shows though.
I believe it shows the percentage uptake of those who have been offered the vaccine in those areas so having a larger proportion of younger people is irrelevant.
SB |
There in lies the problem. Information is scattered around and readers are left to draw their own conclusions as to what it means. You may well be right but we don’t know for certain.
The author of any such post uses information to support their view, and ignores anything that doesn’t. For example is we were seeing excess deaths it would support not easing restrictions, we haven’t had excess deaths in England for three months so it doesn’t get a mention. | |
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| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 13:44 - Jun 14 with 808 views | Mookamoo |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 13:42 - Jun 14 by Pinewoodblue |
There in lies the problem. Information is scattered around and readers are left to draw their own conclusions as to what it means. You may well be right but we don’t know for certain.
The author of any such post uses information to support their view, and ignores anything that doesn’t. For example is we were seeing excess deaths it would support not easing restrictions, we haven’t had excess deaths in England for three months so it doesn’t get a mention. |
We'll have to tune into Whitty's PowerPoint later. | | | |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 13:54 - Jun 14 with 779 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 13:42 - Jun 14 by Pinewoodblue |
There in lies the problem. Information is scattered around and readers are left to draw their own conclusions as to what it means. You may well be right but we don’t know for certain.
The author of any such post uses information to support their view, and ignores anything that doesn’t. For example is we were seeing excess deaths it would support not easing restrictions, we haven’t had excess deaths in England for three months so it doesn’t get a mention. |
Nothing sinister, as mentioned the answer will be more than likely be here:
Newham - 27.5% White
Gateshead - 94.1% White
[Post edited 14 Jun 2021 13:56]
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| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 13:58 - Jun 14 with 759 views | ThisIsMyUsername |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 13:54 - Jun 14 by ElderGrizzly |
Nothing sinister, as mentioned the answer will be more than likely be here:
Newham - 27.5% White
Gateshead - 94.1% White
[Post edited 14 Jun 2021 13:56]
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Why are so many people not turning up for their 2nd dose? Are they just not very intelligent? [Post edited 14 Jun 2021 13:59]
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| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 13:59 - Jun 14 with 752 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 13:44 - Jun 14 by Mookamoo |
We'll have to tune into Whitty's PowerPoint later. |
We will only see the stats they want us to see. For example they won’t mention the percentage, of those testing positive, that were not displaying any symptoms. When the increasing testing in hot spots you pick up cases that wouldn’t ordinarily get picked up. If this were a significant number it would distort any comparison with earlier periods. | |
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| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 14:04 - Jun 14 with 727 views | Mookamoo |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 13:58 - Jun 14 by ThisIsMyUsername |
Why are so many people not turning up for their 2nd dose? Are they just not very intelligent? [Post edited 14 Jun 2021 13:59]
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Because they had side effects after the first which resulted in lost work, or have friends and family who have. As mentioned, a big percentage of those are in low paid, zero hour contracts and they can't take a day off, let alone a week with flu type symptoms. | | | |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 14:13 - Jun 14 with 697 views | StokieBlue |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 14:04 - Jun 14 by Mookamoo |
Because they had side effects after the first which resulted in lost work, or have friends and family who have. As mentioned, a big percentage of those are in low paid, zero hour contracts and they can't take a day off, let alone a week with flu type symptoms. |
A week?
I've not seen reports of vaccine side-effects lasting that long. It's usually a day, two at most.
You are entirely correct that there should be a provision in place to cover their pay if they do have any vaccine side-effects.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 14:31 - Jun 14 with 667 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 13:14 - Jun 14 by StokieBlue |
There is a real issue with take-up in certain areas and it's hard to know how to fix it without implementing things like vaccine passports to try and increase take-up.
Also, this is the 3rd reply to that tweet:
No engagement in the actual issues of vaccine take-up and the differences between areas, just an advert for anti-lockdown protests.
SB |
As here: Full on tin-hat
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| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 14:40 - Jun 14 with 642 views | ThisIsMyUsername |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 14:31 - Jun 14 by ElderGrizzly |
As here: Full on tin-hat
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EG, how is the UK doing in comparison to other European countries in the path towards a return to 'normality?
Are we ahead of or behind the curve, generally speaking? | |
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| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 14:45 - Jun 14 with 625 views | Freddies_Ears |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 09:04 - Jun 14 by Pinewoodblue |
If we took that approach restrictions would never be removed. Government position is a false one, they have this idea that it would be wrong to ease restrictions too early they even claim they will be lifted for good.
The prime objective has always been to protect the NHS, avoid overload. We have to accept Covid is here for the foreseeable so let’s fund the NHS accordingly.
We need to move away from the one size fits all approach and only impose restrictions in areas where it is necessary, and not just in a geographical sense. Those who put society at risk because they refuse vaccine, or act in inappropriate ways need to have their activities curtailed. [Post edited 14 Jun 2021 9:06]
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I agree entirely - your last para reflects my view perfectly. It seems odd to be pushing vaccination for so many people, but not to use proof of vaccination to enable those to avoid some restrictions. |  | | |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 14:45 - Jun 14 with 625 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 14:40 - Jun 14 by ThisIsMyUsername |
EG, how is the UK doing in comparison to other European countries in the path towards a return to 'normality?
Are we ahead of or behind the curve, generally speaking? |
We were ahead on some metrics, but the Delta variant has significantly affected how we are reacting, but also how other countries view us.
It also depends what you are judging "better" on.
There isn't a really easy comparison on anything. For example, some countries are allowing full access to sports stadiums for example, but still limiting going to the pub/bar indoors.
Some are removing need for masks altogether, but some are going into tighter lockdowns. All in the same continent.
From an FCDO perspective, we still view most of the world with caution and also the rest of the world who was seeing us as the well-person of Europe is now starting to edge backwards because of the Delta variant. | | | |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 14:47 - Jun 14 with 621 views | hype313 |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 14:40 - Jun 14 by ThisIsMyUsername |
EG, how is the UK doing in comparison to other European countries in the path towards a return to 'normality?
Are we ahead of or behind the curve, generally speaking? |
Well, Denmark have now scrapped Masks as of today. |  |
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| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 14:50 - Jun 14 with 602 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 14:45 - Jun 14 by Freddies_Ears |
I agree entirely - your last para reflects my view perfectly. It seems odd to be pushing vaccination for so many people, but not to use proof of vaccination to enable those to avoid some restrictions. |
The problem there is parts of the Tory party such as the CRG.
They are all for suppressing voting by using ID, but when we need to prove status to help open things up easier they are against it.
I'm personally uncomfortable about excluding people from 'normal life' if they can't prove Covid status for one reason or another, but to do nothing is not a solution.
EU countries are implementing Covid status (not passport) schemes and the majority of the population back it. | | | |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 14:52 - Jun 14 with 586 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 14:47 - Jun 14 by hype313 |
Well, Denmark have now scrapped Masks as of today. |
They have, although the fixation with a mask (or not) as a barometer of success isn't necessarily accurate | | | |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 14:58 - Jun 14 with 564 views | ThisIsMyUsername |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 14:45 - Jun 14 by ElderGrizzly |
We were ahead on some metrics, but the Delta variant has significantly affected how we are reacting, but also how other countries view us.
It also depends what you are judging "better" on.
There isn't a really easy comparison on anything. For example, some countries are allowing full access to sports stadiums for example, but still limiting going to the pub/bar indoors.
Some are removing need for masks altogether, but some are going into tighter lockdowns. All in the same continent.
From an FCDO perspective, we still view most of the world with caution and also the rest of the world who was seeing us as the well-person of Europe is now starting to edge backwards because of the Delta variant. |
Thank you.
So you view the rest of the world with general caution but the so-called government decide to leave India off the red list for ages when it was obvious what was happening there. I know this has been done to death, but it really just defies all common sense. Are you all in the FCDO similarly thinking 'WTF are you lot doing?'. | |
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| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 16:02 - Jun 14 with 517 views | StokieBlue |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 14:47 - Jun 14 by hype313 |
Well, Denmark have now scrapped Masks as of today. |
They are still required on public transport and they also have a "Coronapass" which means you need vaccinations to get into some places.
They also don't have a high rate of the Delta variant. Some recent studies have said the R could be as high as 8 for this variant (that seems a bit high so they will need more research) but to highlight how much C19 has evolved the R was approximately 2.5 when the original strain reached the UK last year.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 18:33 - Jun 14 with 462 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 09:20 - Jun 14 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Funny isn't it that anyone with more than 14k in savings gets zero universal credit yet second and third property owners have been given a boost to their savings and had access to properties 4 and 5 made easier. And then there is the negligible support for the low waged being told to self isolate.
Pitchforks globally are being dusted off! |
Is that the uncomfortable silence of the furloughed wealthy I hear?
14k savings limit on furlough payments anybody?
#itsalwaysclasswar |  |
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