| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 16:29 - Sep 30 with 5449 views | Eireannach_gorm |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 16:37 - Sep 30 with 5446 views | Kropotkin123 |
Yeah, Lyman was what my maps were showing a few days back. Rapid progress in that area. ISW maps prefaced their last report saying information on the gains came through after the map cut-off time. It looks like progress from South.
Taking Lyman is important for four reasons:
1. "The collapse of the Lyman pocket will likely be highly consequential to the Russian grouping in northern Donetsk and western Luhansk oblasts and may allow Ukrainian troops to threaten Russian positions along the western Luhansk Oblast border and in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area."
2. "The Russian Ministry of Defense has not addressed current Russian losses around Lyman or prepared for the collapse of this sector of the frontline, which will likely further reduce already-low Russian morale."
3. Depending on how successful the encirclement is, Ukraine could potentially capture thousands of Russian troops. A capture should result in less Ukrainian deaths and more supplies.
4. Lyman was a logistics hub.
None of this was likely without Izium falling, so it will be interesting to see what and how the Ukrainians manoeuvre from here. Heading for Svatove would probably be the next most ambitious target. But with reported partisan warfare in Svatove, it might be tempting, as that would likely lead to the encirclement and fall of Russian positions behind the Oskil river.
* Map from ISW, missing Lyman encirclement information. |  |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 16:52 - Sep 30 with 5442 views | Churchman |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 16:37 - Sep 30 by Kropotkin123 |
Yeah, Lyman was what my maps were showing a few days back. Rapid progress in that area. ISW maps prefaced their last report saying information on the gains came through after the map cut-off time. It looks like progress from South.
Taking Lyman is important for four reasons:
1. "The collapse of the Lyman pocket will likely be highly consequential to the Russian grouping in northern Donetsk and western Luhansk oblasts and may allow Ukrainian troops to threaten Russian positions along the western Luhansk Oblast border and in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area."
2. "The Russian Ministry of Defense has not addressed current Russian losses around Lyman or prepared for the collapse of this sector of the frontline, which will likely further reduce already-low Russian morale."
3. Depending on how successful the encirclement is, Ukraine could potentially capture thousands of Russian troops. A capture should result in less Ukrainian deaths and more supplies.
4. Lyman was a logistics hub.
None of this was likely without Izium falling, so it will be interesting to see what and how the Ukrainians manoeuvre from here. Heading for Svatove would probably be the next most ambitious target. But with reported partisan warfare in Svatove, it might be tempting, as that would likely lead to the encirclement and fall of Russian positions behind the Oskil river.
* Map from ISW, missing Lyman encirclement information. |
The figure I saw was 5000 Russians potentially trapped, but that’s hard to do and I suspect most will leg it through the neck of the bag.
As you point out, if Ukraine liberate this area it presents more problems for the great General Putin (seeing him with the four stooges earlier, he really is little). It feels like a gap plugging exercise with not enough to go round, hence rushing the conscript cannon fodder to the front.
Ukraine seems to be getting rather good at encirclement. |  | | |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 21:33 - Sep 30 with 5387 views | Eireannach_gorm |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 21:44 - Sep 30 with 5362 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 16:52 - Sep 30 by Churchman |
The figure I saw was 5000 Russians potentially trapped, but that’s hard to do and I suspect most will leg it through the neck of the bag.
As you point out, if Ukraine liberate this area it presents more problems for the great General Putin (seeing him with the four stooges earlier, he really is little). It feels like a gap plugging exercise with not enough to go round, hence rushing the conscript cannon fodder to the front.
Ukraine seems to be getting rather good at encirclement. |
I suspect many Russian conscripts may well prefer to be taken prisoner of war than leg it back to Russia. Filling the front with men conscripted against their will and no desire to support their leaders seems a strategy doomed to failure. |  |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 21:44 - Sep 30 with 5358 views | Churchman |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 21:33 - Sep 30 by Eireannach_gorm |
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They seem to enjoy using electricity. I’m sure the new conscripts will learn quickly and enjoy it too. | | | |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 22:45 - Sep 30 with 5328 views | Eireannach_gorm |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 16:37 - Sep 30 by Kropotkin123 |
Yeah, Lyman was what my maps were showing a few days back. Rapid progress in that area. ISW maps prefaced their last report saying information on the gains came through after the map cut-off time. It looks like progress from South.
Taking Lyman is important for four reasons:
1. "The collapse of the Lyman pocket will likely be highly consequential to the Russian grouping in northern Donetsk and western Luhansk oblasts and may allow Ukrainian troops to threaten Russian positions along the western Luhansk Oblast border and in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area."
2. "The Russian Ministry of Defense has not addressed current Russian losses around Lyman or prepared for the collapse of this sector of the frontline, which will likely further reduce already-low Russian morale."
3. Depending on how successful the encirclement is, Ukraine could potentially capture thousands of Russian troops. A capture should result in less Ukrainian deaths and more supplies.
4. Lyman was a logistics hub.
None of this was likely without Izium falling, so it will be interesting to see what and how the Ukrainians manoeuvre from here. Heading for Svatove would probably be the next most ambitious target. But with reported partisan warfare in Svatove, it might be tempting, as that would likely lead to the encirclement and fall of Russian positions behind the Oskil river.
* Map from ISW, missing Lyman encirclement information. |
Noose tightens.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1575553245690269696
https://mobile.twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1575771487646396417 | | | |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 23:33 - Sep 30 with 5301 views | Churchman |
Interesting maps. I suspect given the timescales most of the soldiers will get out of that pocket, but they will probably lose whatever kit they have remaining.
It will be interesting to see how the great commander Putin responds to this. Move better divisions into the area to plug gaps and deploy the recruits In quieter sectors? Distribute the conscripts in with the experienced soldiers? Can’t see that working, especially with the convict sweepings. | | | |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 12:38 - Oct 1 with 5183 views | jeera |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 23:33 - Sep 30 by Churchman |
Interesting maps. I suspect given the timescales most of the soldiers will get out of that pocket, but they will probably lose whatever kit they have remaining.
It will be interesting to see how the great commander Putin responds to this. Move better divisions into the area to plug gaps and deploy the recruits In quieter sectors? Distribute the conscripts in with the experienced soldiers? Can’t see that working, especially with the convict sweepings. |
BBC reporting the town is now completely encircled although what that means in terms of what happens next I've no idea:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-63100522 |  |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 12:55 - Oct 1 with 5157 views | Churchman |
The place normally has a population of about 20k. For context, Felixstowe is about 25k. Regardless, clearing built up areas tends to be costly in men so Ukraine may want to siege them out or as is likely the Russians will leg it while they can anyway.
It’s what they’ve done to date. Either way the great Putin isn’t going to be cracking many jokes about the situation which will leave the area open for potential further Ukrainian advance if they’ve the men and support.
Edit: The Ukrainians are claiming about 5k are trapped with no realistic means of re supply, not least because they were refused permission to withdraw (echos of Hitler and Stalin). The Ukrainians say there are three options. Breakout, surrender or they all die. I’ll be surprised if there’s as many as that trapped, but being a hopeless armchair general, I’m probably wrong. [Post edited 1 Oct 2022 13:13]
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 00:14 - Oct 2 with 5083 views | Churchman |
The Russians seem to be using surface to air missiles to attack civilian convoys. I guess that’s what they want to use up from the cupboard I suppose. Crude and strange attitude to what Putin announced yesterday were his own people.
I see one of the great man’s toadies was advocating a tactical nuclear strike again today. There’s a lot wrong with these people.
Given the northern areas are struggling with todays losses, it’ll be interesting to see what General Animal does next. | | | |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 00:18 - Oct 2 with 5081 views | jeera |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 00:14 - Oct 2 by Churchman |
The Russians seem to be using surface to air missiles to attack civilian convoys. I guess that’s what they want to use up from the cupboard I suppose. Crude and strange attitude to what Putin announced yesterday were his own people.
I see one of the great man’s toadies was advocating a tactical nuclear strike again today. There’s a lot wrong with these people.
Given the northern areas are struggling with todays losses, it’ll be interesting to see what General Animal does next. |
Do those advocating employing nuclear weapons even understand the West has them too?
What do they think the consequences would be for goodness' sake. | |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 00:31 - Oct 2 with 5077 views | Churchman |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 00:18 - Oct 2 by jeera |
Do those advocating employing nuclear weapons even understand the West has them too?
What do they think the consequences would be for goodness' sake. |
They view the west as weak, scared and divided. They don’t think they’ll use them.
Maybe the west won’t, but if he takes the step of using any form of nuclear device I think that’s it for him. He will be totally isolated. Best mates India and China will run a mile.
As his military pieces are removed from the board (navy, Air Force), I would put a dollar or two on Putin’s own people disposing of him. Not everyone is keen on dying. The sorry shower in that audience on Friday didn’t look as keen as I suspect Putin would like, discounting the mad old hag at the front. | | | |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 09:10 - Oct 2 with 5038 views | StokieBlue |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 00:18 - Oct 2 by jeera |
Do those advocating employing nuclear weapons even understand the West has them too?
What do they think the consequences would be for goodness' sake. |
Putin has to play for the crowd at home, this has been a disaster for him so he needs to try and rebuild a strongman image.
There is nothing in it for Russia to use nukes and I think it's highly likely the person who actually presses the button isn't going to want his family incinerated in return.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov
Probably worth bearing in mind that the main threats have all been around tactical rather than strategic nuclear devices - smaller yields to use on the battlefield rather than a huge MIRV raining down in London.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 11:57 - Oct 2 with 5015 views | Churchman |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 09:10 - Oct 2 by StokieBlue |
Putin has to play for the crowd at home, this has been a disaster for him so he needs to try and rebuild a strongman image.
There is nothing in it for Russia to use nukes and I think it's highly likely the person who actually presses the button isn't going to want his family incinerated in return.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov
Probably worth bearing in mind that the main threats have all been around tactical rather than strategic nuclear devices - smaller yields to use on the battlefield rather than a huge MIRV raining down in London.
SB |
The terms ‘low yield’ and tactical suggests not too devastating.
The bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki had an explosive yield of about 15 and 20 kilotons. In modern nuclear arsenals, those devastating weapons would be considered ‘low yield’ as this term is for in the 10-100 kiloton range. Strategic warheads can be up to 800 kilotons (CNN).
To even talk about deploying these weapons defies belief for me. We are talking about potentially ending the world for one man’s ego and a bit of land that isn’t yours?? Mad.
Putin needs killing and fast.
Edit: this is how the Russians treat POWs
https://news.sky.com/story/released-ukrainian-prisoner-of-war-reveals-torment-at [Post edited 2 Oct 2022 12:33]
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 23:09 - Oct 2 with 4939 views | Churchman |
Certainly a 180 degree change from Ukraine will last 3 days against Russian might (my belief too).
I cannot see Ukraine taking back Crimea, but I can see them making it untenable for the Russians, given time and US support. | | | |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 07:32 - Oct 3 with 4886 views | Kropotkin123 |
I'm probably getting ahead of myself here...
1st Oct
2nd Oct
... But there has been silence for a long time in the Kherson Oblast, this has been the first time Ukraine has gained significant land, and we've recently seen rapid gains elsewhere.
And then we continue to see rapid gains around Lyman.
1st Oct
2nd Oct
With supply chains cut, we could see surprising quick progress again, potentially on a scale that matched the Kharkiv advances.
And then things seem to be going from bad to worse on the domestic front for Putin. It feels like it is falling apart for him. Public criticisms from significant (though not top) players. Milbloggers causing more problems through their unrealistic expectations. Mobilization issues. And so on. | |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 09:58 - Oct 3 with 4847 views | Churchman |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 07:32 - Oct 3 by Kropotkin123 |
I'm probably getting ahead of myself here...
1st Oct
2nd Oct
... But there has been silence for a long time in the Kherson Oblast, this has been the first time Ukraine has gained significant land, and we've recently seen rapid gains elsewhere.
And then we continue to see rapid gains around Lyman.
1st Oct
2nd Oct
With supply chains cut, we could see surprising quick progress again, potentially on a scale that matched the Kharkiv advances.
And then things seem to be going from bad to worse on the domestic front for Putin. It feels like it is falling apart for him. Public criticisms from significant (though not top) players. Milbloggers causing more problems through their unrealistic expectations. Mobilization issues. And so on. |
These maps are really interesting. Thanks for posting.
Ukraine’s progress has been heartening and surprising. In terms of how far it can go will depend as much on Ukraine’s military strength/supply situation as the Russian army’s weakness. All this is tragic and unnecessary, but fascinating. What does Field Marshal Putin do next? | | | |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 14:48 - Oct 3 with 4791 views | Churchman |
Interesting how France’s foot dragging on real support for Ukraine keeps getting a mention.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63090644
Good politics from Macron though in that he will be first in the queue if Putin wins for trade deals and probably still up at the front if Putin is kicked out. It also means that they preserve their own kit, some of which is excellent.
The only issue for him is how other EU countries view this. Not Germany who is also happy for others to do the heavy lifting, as ever, but threatened countries like Poland.
https://www.statista.com/chart/27278/military-aid-to-ukraine-by-country/ | | | |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 18:03 - Oct 3 with 4756 views | Eireannach_gorm |
Hate when this happens. 
This may be the item in question ( they are crap drones anyway ).
[Post edited 3 Oct 2022 18:06]
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