| Putin did his big speech then 08:06 - Sep 21 with 7253 views | Steve_M |
He's getting desperate, fake referendums, partial mobilisation and more vague nuclear threats.
Thread here:
Russia has lost a mere 6,000 soldiers but destroyed half the Ukrainian army apparently. |  |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 09:34 - Sep 21 with 2768 views | StokieBlue |
| Putin did his big speech then on 09:31 - Sep 21 by blueasfook |
US have systems like THAAD and AEGIS (and possibly others we dont know about). UK have basically nothing! [Post edited 21 Sep 2022 9:32]
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Neither of those are capable of hitting an ICBM moving at Mach 8+ on re-entry.
It's certainly possible they have a laser based system which is unknown, they have known ones that can hit artillery shells.
SB
Edit: Saying the UK has nothing isn't really fair, the Type 45 is actually a better air defence ship than the US AEGIS. Once again though, it's useless against an ICBM. [Post edited 21 Sep 2022 9:38]
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| Putin did his big speech then on 09:38 - Sep 21 with 2751 views | giant_stow |
| Putin did his big speech then on 09:34 - Sep 21 by StokieBlue |
Neither of those are capable of hitting an ICBM moving at Mach 8+ on re-entry.
It's certainly possible they have a laser based system which is unknown, they have known ones that can hit artillery shells.
SB
Edit: Saying the UK has nothing isn't really fair, the Type 45 is actually a better air defence ship than the US AEGIS. Once again though, it's useless against an ICBM. [Post edited 21 Sep 2022 9:38]
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Thanks fellas. |  |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 09:39 - Sep 21 with 2740 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Putin did his big speech then on 08:30 - Sep 21 by StokieBlue |
Let's be clear here though, he's backed himself into a corner. This is entirely his own doing.
SB |
He's been a very naughty boy. |  |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 09:55 - Sep 21 with 2700 views | MattinLondon |
| Putin did his big speech then on 09:39 - Sep 21 by BanksterDebtSlave |
He's been a very naughty boy. |
He has been a very naughty boy, but like an overtired six year old, he will have to have some sort of token victory in order to be appeased and stand down. Ukraine won’t want to be seen to give in to Russian demands so they may well be forced to acquiesce to some parts of its territory being devolved with Russian influence (not sure if this was a thing before the war). In return, the EU and US will pledge billions to rebuild the country.
Once this is over, Putlin may well not last that much longer but in the meantime, thousands more people will die. |  | | |
| Putin did his big speech then on 09:56 - Sep 21 with 2710 views | Guthrum |
Another aspect to this is what effect the partial mobilisation may have on the military situation in Ukraine.
It will certainly probide the Russians with a huge reserve of new manpower, up to 300,000 soldiers.
But ...
These men will have to be re-trained and equipped. A lot of that is necessarily going to be with older and more obsolescent equipment from storage. You can't suddenly manufacture the weapons for 15 new divisions, particularly stuff like modern artillery and communications.
There is the risk they will simply be employed as cannon-fodder in massive human-wave attacks - which, while tricky to deal with, are unlikely to succeed against a modern, highly-motivated, well-equipped and experienced force fighting on the defensive.
In addition, the Russians have already burnt a lot of their best quality troops. They are thus not available to spearhead offensives backed by these new units.
On the defensive themselves, they will lack the precision munitions and control structures to withstand attacks - even if Russian logistics can keep up. Morale will be fragile.
This mobilisation gets Moscow lots of bodies, but is not as useful as that may seem. |  |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 10:11 - Sep 21 with 2692 views | homer_123 |
| Putin did his big speech then on 09:56 - Sep 21 by Guthrum |
Another aspect to this is what effect the partial mobilisation may have on the military situation in Ukraine.
It will certainly probide the Russians with a huge reserve of new manpower, up to 300,000 soldiers.
But ...
These men will have to be re-trained and equipped. A lot of that is necessarily going to be with older and more obsolescent equipment from storage. You can't suddenly manufacture the weapons for 15 new divisions, particularly stuff like modern artillery and communications.
There is the risk they will simply be employed as cannon-fodder in massive human-wave attacks - which, while tricky to deal with, are unlikely to succeed against a modern, highly-motivated, well-equipped and experienced force fighting on the defensive.
In addition, the Russians have already burnt a lot of their best quality troops. They are thus not available to spearhead offensives backed by these new units.
On the defensive themselves, they will lack the precision munitions and control structures to withstand attacks - even if Russian logistics can keep up. Morale will be fragile.
This mobilisation gets Moscow lots of bodies, but is not as useful as that may seem. |
Harking back to WWII? Where they threw bodies at the Germans? |  |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 10:13 - Sep 21 with 2693 views | WeWereZombies |
| Putin did his big speech then on 09:56 - Sep 21 by Guthrum |
Another aspect to this is what effect the partial mobilisation may have on the military situation in Ukraine.
It will certainly probide the Russians with a huge reserve of new manpower, up to 300,000 soldiers.
But ...
These men will have to be re-trained and equipped. A lot of that is necessarily going to be with older and more obsolescent equipment from storage. You can't suddenly manufacture the weapons for 15 new divisions, particularly stuff like modern artillery and communications.
There is the risk they will simply be employed as cannon-fodder in massive human-wave attacks - which, while tricky to deal with, are unlikely to succeed against a modern, highly-motivated, well-equipped and experienced force fighting on the defensive.
In addition, the Russians have already burnt a lot of their best quality troops. They are thus not available to spearhead offensives backed by these new units.
On the defensive themselves, they will lack the precision munitions and control structures to withstand attacks - even if Russian logistics can keep up. Morale will be fragile.
This mobilisation gets Moscow lots of bodies, but is not as useful as that may seem. |
However, the Russian defence minister has clarified what Putin's announcement could mean in practical terms:
'Sergei Shoigu said some 300,000 reservists would be called up — a fraction of the 25 million Russia has. They won’t be taken all at once but according to need, he said.
He insisted that students would not be used, they could "be calm" he said, and ‘keep going to class’. Neither will conscripts be sent to the front — a move which would have been very unpopular.
Instead, Russia says it will be using men who have battle experience.'
This is from Sarah Rainsford's report on the BBC live feed at 08:51 this morning https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-62970683 |  |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 11:19 - Sep 21 with 2630 views | Churchman |
| Putin did his big speech then on 10:13 - Sep 21 by WeWereZombies |
However, the Russian defence minister has clarified what Putin's announcement could mean in practical terms:
'Sergei Shoigu said some 300,000 reservists would be called up — a fraction of the 25 million Russia has. They won’t be taken all at once but according to need, he said.
He insisted that students would not be used, they could "be calm" he said, and ‘keep going to class’. Neither will conscripts be sent to the front — a move which would have been very unpopular.
Instead, Russia says it will be using men who have battle experience.'
This is from Sarah Rainsford's report on the BBC live feed at 08:51 this morning https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-62970683 |
And scrapings from the prisons. There you are in the front line busy trying to survive and do your job and next to you is the murderer and thieves battalion. Going to give you reassurance, isn’t it. As for war crimes, god help anyone they capture, civilian or military.
What this so called defence minister has to say may be true, it may be waffle to calm the domestic audience.
Lets face it, with less than 6k casualties in 7 months of fighting there is negligible risk to Russia’s magnificent army that’s smashed half the Ukrainian Nazi army, so what’s the problem? I’m sure those eligible will be rushing to the front. Don’t want to miss out! Total rubbish, all of it.
The recruits will be handed a 40 year old AK47s, deployed to fill out depleted regiments and thrown into the front line with a threat of death if they take a step back. It’s very much WW2 Russian/German philosophy and when you see the numbers disparity, you can see a mad logic.
A lot of people are going to die and the ‘reservists’ will be first to go. Tragic. |  | | |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 11:37 - Sep 21 with 2609 views | Steve_M |
| Putin did his big speech then on 11:19 - Sep 21 by Churchman |
And scrapings from the prisons. There you are in the front line busy trying to survive and do your job and next to you is the murderer and thieves battalion. Going to give you reassurance, isn’t it. As for war crimes, god help anyone they capture, civilian or military.
What this so called defence minister has to say may be true, it may be waffle to calm the domestic audience.
Lets face it, with less than 6k casualties in 7 months of fighting there is negligible risk to Russia’s magnificent army that’s smashed half the Ukrainian Nazi army, so what’s the problem? I’m sure those eligible will be rushing to the front. Don’t want to miss out! Total rubbish, all of it.
The recruits will be handed a 40 year old AK47s, deployed to fill out depleted regiments and thrown into the front line with a threat of death if they take a step back. It’s very much WW2 Russian/German philosophy and when you see the numbers disparity, you can see a mad logic.
A lot of people are going to die and the ‘reservists’ will be first to go. Tragic. |
What it really seems to mean is that those soldiers who have contracts due to expire this year won't be able to leave the army. Interesting thread here:
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| Putin did his big speech then on 11:38 - Sep 21 with 2605 views | giant_stow |
| Putin did his big speech then on 11:19 - Sep 21 by Churchman |
And scrapings from the prisons. There you are in the front line busy trying to survive and do your job and next to you is the murderer and thieves battalion. Going to give you reassurance, isn’t it. As for war crimes, god help anyone they capture, civilian or military.
What this so called defence minister has to say may be true, it may be waffle to calm the domestic audience.
Lets face it, with less than 6k casualties in 7 months of fighting there is negligible risk to Russia’s magnificent army that’s smashed half the Ukrainian Nazi army, so what’s the problem? I’m sure those eligible will be rushing to the front. Don’t want to miss out! Total rubbish, all of it.
The recruits will be handed a 40 year old AK47s, deployed to fill out depleted regiments and thrown into the front line with a threat of death if they take a step back. It’s very much WW2 Russian/German philosophy and when you see the numbers disparity, you can see a mad logic.
A lot of people are going to die and the ‘reservists’ will be first to go. Tragic. |
Speaking as an ignorant, I find the mobilisation to be a red herring for the reasons you say. This must be all about the nuclear threat and now it's been made, it's hard to imagine Putin walking back from it.
The timeline suggests some kind of ultimatum coming after the results of the 'referendum' on the 25th. Maybe x many days for Ukraine to remove its forces from the Donbas? Steve's link earlier was intersting in highlighting how difficult it would be to actually target anything of military value in a 'small' nuclear strike, so I'm going for Kharkiv, as a Hiroshima-style warning to Kiev, given its status and despite being close to Russia. Then what? This is truly scary. | |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 12:10 - Sep 21 with 2541 views | Guthrum |
| Putin did his big speech then on 10:11 - Sep 21 by homer_123 |
Harking back to WWII? Where they threw bodies at the Germans? |
They weren't just human wave attacks in WWII, but backed by vast quantities of artillery and large numbers of modern, high-quality tanks (T34s), plus effective attack aircraft (IL-2). Also, by that stage, German numbers were very depleted, making it difficult to defend the long front.
Contrast with fighting against the Japanese in WWII, when Banzai charges often only led to massive casualties for the attacker, or in Korea in the 1950s, when relatively small UN forces were on numerous occasions able to stand off huge DPRK and Chinese assaults. | |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 12:14 - Sep 21 with 2533 views | Churchman |
| Putin did his big speech then on 11:37 - Sep 21 by Steve_M |
What it really seems to mean is that those soldiers who have contracts due to expire this year won't be able to leave the army. Interesting thread here:
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It’s an interesting thread worth reading.
Basically their army is a mixture of good, bad, indifferent, bodies in a uniform. Ill disciplined and at times shambolic. The massacres, murders, looting, torture etc show that.
Their army’s morale is not going to be improved by winter and I doubt rotation and time on their hands (if they get any) is going to help. People whose time in the army was coming to an end now told ‘nope you are staying here for the motherland’ are not going to be cheering in the aisles. New people are going to take time to equip, retrain and move.
Putin has a problem and his actions and threats of the last 24 hours show that. | | | |
| Putin did his big speech then on 12:17 - Sep 21 with 2529 views | Guthrum |
| Putin did his big speech then on 10:13 - Sep 21 by WeWereZombies |
However, the Russian defence minister has clarified what Putin's announcement could mean in practical terms:
'Sergei Shoigu said some 300,000 reservists would be called up — a fraction of the 25 million Russia has. They won’t be taken all at once but according to need, he said.
He insisted that students would not be used, they could "be calm" he said, and ‘keep going to class’. Neither will conscripts be sent to the front — a move which would have been very unpopular.
Instead, Russia says it will be using men who have battle experience.'
This is from Sarah Rainsford's report on the BBC live feed at 08:51 this morning https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-62970683 |
The more people they draw in, particularly from hitherto little affected, more cosmopolitan cities like Moscow and St Petersburg*, the greater chance of unrest among the populace.
Protests by the families of those killed in Afghanistan were among the factors of strain which caused the Soviet system to collapse.
I think it likely that even drawing in 300k would swamp the Russian military system, without markedly increasing its effectiveness. As SteveM has highlighted, the indefinite extension of existing contracts is more significant, but may also lead to dissatisfaction and poor morale among troops.
* They've been very carefully recruiting from rural regions and minority communities so far. | |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 12:22 - Sep 21 with 2529 views | Trequartista |
The partial mobilisation news is almost irrelevant compared to fact we are being threatened with nuclear weapons if we continue fighting next week in the areas that Russia is about to annex. My nuclear anxiety nausea has just hit new heights. |  |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 12:25 - Sep 21 with 2520 views | WeWereZombies |
| Putin did his big speech then on 12:17 - Sep 21 by Guthrum |
The more people they draw in, particularly from hitherto little affected, more cosmopolitan cities like Moscow and St Petersburg*, the greater chance of unrest among the populace.
Protests by the families of those killed in Afghanistan were among the factors of strain which caused the Soviet system to collapse.
I think it likely that even drawing in 300k would swamp the Russian military system, without markedly increasing its effectiveness. As SteveM has highlighted, the indefinite extension of existing contracts is more significant, but may also lead to dissatisfaction and poor morale among troops.
* They've been very carefully recruiting from rural regions and minority communities so far. |
One further point from the Sarah Rainsford snippet is the figure of twenty five million reservists. Elsewhere I have seen two million quoted, but if national military service is compulsory in Russia then I think the Rainsford number looks correct (given that the population is over one hundred and forty five million.) So I have to conclude that there is an element of kidology in Putin's call up, a 'look, however many battles you win we still have enough troops to win the war', approach designed to demoralise Zelensky and his allies. | |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 12:26 - Sep 21 with 2522 views | Guthrum |
| Putin did his big speech then on 12:22 - Sep 21 by Trequartista |
The partial mobilisation news is almost irrelevant compared to fact we are being threatened with nuclear weapons if we continue fighting next week in the areas that Russia is about to annex. My nuclear anxiety nausea has just hit new heights. |
OTOH, despite having made threats previously, they hardly responded at all, let alone with nuclear weapons, when Ukraine carried out strikes in Crimea, which Russia had previously (unilaterally) annexed. | |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 12:27 - Sep 21 with 2517 views | giant_stow |
| Putin did his big speech then on 12:22 - Sep 21 by Trequartista |
The partial mobilisation news is almost irrelevant compared to fact we are being threatened with nuclear weapons if we continue fighting next week in the areas that Russia is about to annex. My nuclear anxiety nausea has just hit new heights. |
totally agree. | |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 12:30 - Sep 21 with 2513 views | giant_stow |
| Putin did his big speech then on 12:26 - Sep 21 by Guthrum |
OTOH, despite having made threats previously, they hardly responded at all, let alone with nuclear weapons, when Ukraine carried out strikes in Crimea, which Russia had previously (unilaterally) annexed. |
The only other option I can think of for Putin is to use chemical weapons on Ukrainian Troops? | |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 12:34 - Sep 21 with 2509 views | hype313 |
| Putin did his big speech then on 12:27 - Sep 21 by giant_stow |
totally agree. |
Think we'll start to see China playing a more pivotal role in this, they just won't allow Putin to go into a full meltdown, bringing the world to it's knees. |  |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 12:35 - Sep 21 with 2502 views | Guthrum |
| Putin did his big speech then on 12:25 - Sep 21 by WeWereZombies |
One further point from the Sarah Rainsford snippet is the figure of twenty five million reservists. Elsewhere I have seen two million quoted, but if national military service is compulsory in Russia then I think the Rainsford number looks correct (given that the population is over one hundred and forty five million.) So I have to conclude that there is an element of kidology in Putin's call up, a 'look, however many battles you win we still have enough troops to win the war', approach designed to demoralise Zelensky and his allies. |
25m is feasible if they called up absolutely every male of military age. But to do so would cripple the Russian economy and agriculture. The social effects of feeding that proportion of the populace through a Ukrainian "meat grinder" would be very significant. Revolutions have been provoked by less.
Also, what would they arm them with, pointy sticks? As for feeding, watering and fuelling, Russian logistics proved unable to cope with a few tens of thousands earlier in the war. | |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 12:37 - Sep 21 with 2497 views | giant_stow |
| Putin did his big speech then on 12:34 - Sep 21 by hype313 |
Think we'll start to see China playing a more pivotal role in this, they just won't allow Putin to go into a full meltdown, bringing the world to it's knees. |
Hope so. I wonder what they're thinking right now? | |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 12:37 - Sep 21 with 2497 views | Guthrum |
| Putin did his big speech then on 12:34 - Sep 21 by hype313 |
Think we'll start to see China playing a more pivotal role in this, they just won't allow Putin to go into a full meltdown, bringing the world to it's knees. |
Except if Russia and the West mutually destroy themselves, that gives a lot of pieces for China to pick up, particularly in the Far East. Vladivostock was originally a Chinese settlement. | |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 12:39 - Sep 21 with 2497 views | Guthrum |
| Putin did his big speech then on 12:30 - Sep 21 by giant_stow |
The only other option I can think of for Putin is to use chemical weapons on Ukrainian Troops? |
Very limited effectiveness, massive diplomatic fallout. Plus the Ukrainians may have chemical weapons they can use back, on Russian troop concentrations. | |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 12:41 - Sep 21 with 2492 views | hype313 |
| Putin did his big speech then on 12:37 - Sep 21 by Guthrum |
Except if Russia and the West mutually destroy themselves, that gives a lot of pieces for China to pick up, particularly in the Far East. Vladivostock was originally a Chinese settlement. |
If there is a nuclear fallout, then you only have to look at which way the winds flow, they head East, which means large swathes of the Far East will be in the firing line of the bombs aftermath. | |
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| Putin did his big speech then on 12:43 - Sep 21 with 2487 views | WeWereZombies |
| Putin did his big speech then on 12:35 - Sep 21 by Guthrum |
25m is feasible if they called up absolutely every male of military age. But to do so would cripple the Russian economy and agriculture. The social effects of feeding that proportion of the populace through a Ukrainian "meat grinder" would be very significant. Revolutions have been provoked by less.
Also, what would they arm them with, pointy sticks? As for feeding, watering and fuelling, Russian logistics proved unable to cope with a few tens of thousands earlier in the war. |
But they don't have to send them to the front all at once, in fact Putin may even have learnt something and go in for a more rational rotation of the front lines (good news in the short term for Ukraine as that should give them opportunities to find weak points and more territory won back.) This in turn will develop more highly trained and battle hardened troops (bad news for Ukraine in the long term, they look unlikely to ever get Crimea back) and minimise dissent in Moscow as it can be played to the tune of 'our brave boys' as infinitum.
Away from the nuclear threat it all sounds like a return to the Europe and near East of the late Nineteenth and early Twentieth centuries. Maybe the best we can hope for is the emergence of another Tolstoy... | |
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