| Most winning goals scored 13:42 - Jan 4 with 3334 views | Wacko |
A lot of people have been saying “but we’re the top scorers in the league” in discussing whether we need a striker, but the more important stat is what percentage of our goals have been winning goals. We have the worst percentage in the top six - with 29%. Everyone else is over 30% (with Plymouth nearly 37%). I guess this just confirms what most of us knew already, that we’re not ruthless enough |  |
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| Most winning goals scored on 13:45 - Jan 4 with 2398 views | itfcjoe |
What does this stat even mean |  |
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| Most winning goals scored on 13:47 - Jan 4 with 2373 views | Wacko |
| Most winning goals scored on 13:45 - Jan 4 by itfcjoe |
What does this stat even mean |
That it’s easier to score a third goal against Oxford than a second against Lincoln | |
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| Most winning goals scored on 13:49 - Jan 4 with 2332 views | Asa |
| Most winning goals scored on 13:45 - Jan 4 by itfcjoe |
What does this stat even mean |
I think it means that if Plymouth win 1-0 twice and we win 5-0 twice to start the season that they are five times better than us at scoring a winning goal with 100% to our 20%!
It's a real shame for them that they'd be below us in the table and 8 goals worse off! | | | |
| Most winning goals scored on 13:50 - Jan 4 with 2303 views | Guthrum |
What exactly is a "winning goal", tho? Is it simply the last one scored in a victory, or the first one to progress from a level scoreline?
It might suggest we're winning by bigger margins than our rivals, or that we are more efficient. |  |
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| Most winning goals scored on 13:51 - Jan 4 with 2279 views | CokeIsKey |
| Most winning goals scored on 13:45 - Jan 4 by itfcjoe |
What does this stat even mean |
Guessing it means that we’re scoring a lot of our goals against lesser teams to secure 2 or 3 goal leads but not enough of our goals have been used to win the tighter games that our rivals have been able to win.
So probably means we’re good at playing against open teams with space in behind but can’t break down teams that sit back - as we know. |  |
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| Most winning goals scored on 13:56 - Jan 4 with 2212 views | Wacko |
| Most winning goals scored on 13:50 - Jan 4 by Guthrum |
What exactly is a "winning goal", tho? Is it simply the last one scored in a victory, or the first one to progress from a level scoreline?
It might suggest we're winning by bigger margins than our rivals, or that we are more efficient. |
Well it varies. It’s the goal that changes a draw to a win. Like I say below, it implies we are far better at scoring when other teams have “given up” or can no longer park the bus than when it really natters | |
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| Most winning goals scored on 13:58 - Jan 4 with 2188 views | Wacko |
| Most winning goals scored on 13:51 - Jan 4 by CokeIsKey |
Guessing it means that we’re scoring a lot of our goals against lesser teams to secure 2 or 3 goal leads but not enough of our goals have been used to win the tighter games that our rivals have been able to win.
So probably means we’re good at playing against open teams with space in behind but can’t break down teams that sit back - as we know. |
Yeah exactly - it confirms what we know. And also negates the argument that we don’t need a better striker because we already score loads. Deeper down I think it puts a question on how our current strikers handle pressure | |
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| Most winning goals scored on 13:58 - Jan 4 with 2188 views | BigCommon |
So when we win 3-0. How many of those 3 are winning goals?
Weird stat.. But agree, we could be more ruthless when you convert our possession/shots to goals scored.. |  | | |
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| Most winning goals scored on 14:00 - Jan 4 with 2168 views | Wacko |
| Most winning goals scored on 13:58 - Jan 4 by BigCommon |
So when we win 3-0. How many of those 3 are winning goals?
Weird stat.. But agree, we could be more ruthless when you convert our possession/shots to goals scored.. |
One goal. I simply divided number of wins by goals scored | |
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| Most winning goals scored on 14:03 - Jan 4 with 2127 views | SheffordBlue |
Isn't this partly impacted by the fact that we've only been behind 7 times in the whole season. Plymouth and Wednesday have come from behind to win more often but only because they've been behind more than we have. | |
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| Most winning goals scored on 14:08 - Jan 4 with 2085 views | Guthrum |
| Most winning goals scored on 13:56 - Jan 4 by Wacko |
Well it varies. It’s the goal that changes a draw to a win. Like I say below, it implies we are far better at scoring when other teams have “given up” or can no longer park the bus than when it really natters |
However, all games start as a draw, so every win has a "winning goal". If we're winning by larger margins than our rivals (i.e. more "spare" goals), then surely that's good thing?
Or do you mean winning after the opposition (or ourselves) have equalised? | |
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| Most winning goals scored on 14:10 - Jan 4 with 2063 views | itfcjoe |
| Most winning goals scored on 13:56 - Jan 4 by Wacko |
Well it varies. It’s the goal that changes a draw to a win. Like I say below, it implies we are far better at scoring when other teams have “given up” or can no longer park the bus than when it really natters |
So if we go 2-0 up and then win 2-1 we don't score any winning goals?
We've barely been behind this season, we've scored first goal in majority of games so much less opportunities to score a 'winning goal'. | |
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| Most winning goals scored on 14:11 - Jan 4 with 2065 views | SaleAway |
| Most winning goals scored on 13:45 - Jan 4 by itfcjoe |
What does this stat even mean |
it basically means we either win easily, lose, or draw.... we don't sneak a lot of wins by a single goal... i.e we're scoring a lot of goals which aren't gaining us points.... just improving goal difference
I think this is why people think that Plymouth might drop off, they've won 9 games by 1 goal... we've won 5.
a couple of " winnning" goals in that context would make a difference.
however.... we have also drawn 5 matches and lost 1 from when we were in front, so you could easily argue that our propensity for throwing away a winning position is more a defensive problem, than a lack of goals.
As most people have already said. We don't do a lot wrong, hence we're at the right end of the table, however, we have the potential to be a lot better by making small improvements at both ends. Cut out the cheap goals conceded, and score a couple more goals at crucial times, and we'll fly. | |
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| Most winning goals scored on 14:14 - Jan 4 with 2004 views | Wacko |
| Most winning goals scored on 14:10 - Jan 4 by itfcjoe |
So if we go 2-0 up and then win 2-1 we don't score any winning goals?
We've barely been behind this season, we've scored first goal in majority of games so much less opportunities to score a 'winning goal'. |
No
1 win = 1 winning goal | |
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| Most winning goals scored on 14:15 - Jan 4 with 1991 views | itfcjoe |
| Most winning goals scored on 14:11 - Jan 4 by SaleAway |
it basically means we either win easily, lose, or draw.... we don't sneak a lot of wins by a single goal... i.e we're scoring a lot of goals which aren't gaining us points.... just improving goal difference
I think this is why people think that Plymouth might drop off, they've won 9 games by 1 goal... we've won 5.
a couple of " winnning" goals in that context would make a difference.
however.... we have also drawn 5 matches and lost 1 from when we were in front, so you could easily argue that our propensity for throwing away a winning position is more a defensive problem, than a lack of goals.
As most people have already said. We don't do a lot wrong, hence we're at the right end of the table, however, we have the potential to be a lot better by making small improvements at both ends. Cut out the cheap goals conceded, and score a couple more goals at crucial times, and we'll fly. |
I don't disagree with the last paragraph, but that's surely the same for any team in the league? Concede a few less and score a few more makes a massive different to anyone | |
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| Most winning goals scored on 14:15 - Jan 4 with 2003 views | PhilTWTD |
| Most winning goals scored on 13:47 - Jan 4 by Wacko |
That it’s easier to score a third goal against Oxford than a second against Lincoln |
I've funnily enough just been writing something similar for my Gazette column without citing your stat. We're the top scorers in the division but that is skewed a bit by often winning fairly big when we win, such as the Oxford, MK Dons, Cambridge and Shrewsbury games. We've won 1-0 twice in the league all season. I'd imagine it's rare to win 3-0 more regularly than 1-0 in a season unless you're Manchester City or similar.
This post has been edited by an administrator |  | | |
| Most winning goals scored on 14:17 - Jan 4 with 1951 views | Guthrum |
| Most winning goals scored on 14:00 - Jan 4 by Wacko |
One goal. I simply divided number of wins by goals scored |
Derby, Bolton and Barnsley have scored a lot fewer goals than the top three (12 - 15), so that's going to skew the statistic, even tho they have slightly fewer wins (3 - 6) overall. | |
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| Most winning goals scored on 14:17 - Jan 4 with 1947 views | Wacko |
| Most winning goals scored on 14:08 - Jan 4 by Guthrum |
However, all games start as a draw, so every win has a "winning goal". If we're winning by larger margins than our rivals (i.e. more "spare" goals), then surely that's good thing?
Or do you mean winning after the opposition (or ourselves) have equalised? |
Exactly, every win has a winning goal. And of course it's great score loads of goals, I'm not saying it isn't. Just that it implies we are less likely to score under pressure*
*pressure that comes about from dealing with teams who park the bus and who we're expected to beat
Like I say in the OP, it's what we already know. My main motivation was to discredit the "we've scored the most goals in the league" boast | |
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| Most winning goals scored on 14:24 - Jan 4 with 1816 views | Wacko |
| Most winning goals scored on 14:17 - Jan 4 by Guthrum |
Derby, Bolton and Barnsley have scored a lot fewer goals than the top three (12 - 15), so that's going to skew the statistic, even tho they have slightly fewer wins (3 - 6) overall. |
It doesn't skew anything - it's a percentage.
Derby have scored 14 fewer goals than us yet have won only 3 fewer games than us. So their conversion rate (33%) of goals to wins is a lot better than ours. What does skew things are draws, which I admit I haven't taken into account, but essentially what I'm saying is that we've scored 11 more goals than Derby with little to show for it [Post edited 4 Jan 2023 14:24]
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| Most winning goals scored on 14:25 - Jan 4 with 1789 views | SheffordBlue |
| Most winning goals scored on 14:17 - Jan 4 by Wacko |
Exactly, every win has a winning goal. And of course it's great score loads of goals, I'm not saying it isn't. Just that it implies we are less likely to score under pressure*
*pressure that comes about from dealing with teams who park the bus and who we're expected to beat
Like I say in the OP, it's what we already know. My main motivation was to discredit the "we've scored the most goals in the league" boast |
I make it:
Wins: 1 goal - 2. 2 goals - 7. 3 goals - 5
Draws: 1 goal - 4. 2 goals - 3. 4 goals - 1
Losses - 0 goals - 2. 1 goal - 1.
Our style of play with the high press makes us more likely to go on and score more when a team has to come from behind as they leave the space for us to play into. If we've 'wasted' goals it would be in the 5 three goal victories | |
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| Most winning goals scored on 14:31 - Jan 4 with 1748 views | gringoblue |
| Most winning goals scored on 14:24 - Jan 4 by Wacko |
It doesn't skew anything - it's a percentage.
Derby have scored 14 fewer goals than us yet have won only 3 fewer games than us. So their conversion rate (33%) of goals to wins is a lot better than ours. What does skew things are draws, which I admit I haven't taken into account, but essentially what I'm saying is that we've scored 11 more goals than Derby with little to show for it [Post edited 4 Jan 2023 14:24]
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Little to show for it... we have 9 more points! |  | | |
| Most winning goals scored on 14:32 - Jan 4 with 1737 views | Wacko |
| Most winning goals scored on 14:25 - Jan 4 by SheffordBlue |
I make it:
Wins: 1 goal - 2. 2 goals - 7. 3 goals - 5
Draws: 1 goal - 4. 2 goals - 3. 4 goals - 1
Losses - 0 goals - 2. 1 goal - 1.
Our style of play with the high press makes us more likely to go on and score more when a team has to come from behind as they leave the space for us to play into. If we've 'wasted' goals it would be in the 5 three goal victories |
Interesting thanks. I forgot about Charlton. That's obviously a freak result that skews against us.
But yeah I'm not really focussed on the wasted goals, it's more the other side of the coin and whether the pressure is getting to us in tight games. Lincoln was a classic example, a man down and against our press yet they saw it out fairly comfortably | |
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| Most winning goals scored on 14:33 - Jan 4 with 1731 views | Guthrum |
| Most winning goals scored on 14:17 - Jan 4 by Wacko |
Exactly, every win has a winning goal. And of course it's great score loads of goals, I'm not saying it isn't. Just that it implies we are less likely to score under pressure*
*pressure that comes about from dealing with teams who park the bus and who we're expected to beat
Like I say in the OP, it's what we already know. My main motivation was to discredit the "we've scored the most goals in the league" boast |
I don't think your main point is untrue, that we sometimes find it difficult to break down teams who go for all-out defence.
However, your stat doesn't actually demonstrate that, simply that we achieve fewer wins per goal than our rivals. Which is not surprising, given we've scored 3 or more goals in 28% of our matches and 2 goals in a further 36%. Plymouth and Wednesday are pretty similar, (but have one or two more wins) the other three are way off. | |
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| Most winning goals scored on 14:39 - Jan 4 with 1668 views | homer_123 |
I'd just like to point out that a new 'striker' doesn't mean that we'll improve that stat.
Take Lincoln, the three guilt edge chances fell to Evans, Leigh and Woolf. Evans from the corner with a free hit he put wide. Leigh with a near post header he put over and Woolf hit bar.
The one thing I really like about our play is the fact that we create and score from many positions, so signing a 20 goal a season striker might mean that KM has to tweak or change the teams way of playing to get the best out of that striker, which could actually be at the overall detriment of the team.
I absolutely would not tweak or mess about with how we play or approach games, we get a lot right but we could absolutely do with being more ruthless in taking the chances we create but the fact that we don't rely on a single play for goals is a really good thing. [Post edited 4 Jan 2023 14:39]
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| Most winning goals scored on 14:40 - Jan 4 with 1646 views | homer_123 |
| Most winning goals scored on 14:31 - Jan 4 by gringoblue |
Little to show for it... we have 9 more points! |
Royle was right, just gotta score 1 more than the opponent, end of. | |
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